What is the lowest latitude of discrete aurorae during superstorms?
From a survey of published accounts of visual sightings of aurorae, a compilation is presented of the lowest identified geomagnetic latitude at which discrete aurorae were seen at local zenith during magnetic storms having intensities with maximum − Dst > 200 nT. The compilation includes data for the superstorms of 2 September 1859, 4 February 1872, and 15 May 1921. A statistical model is developed representing the equatorward boundary of discrete aurorae versus storm intensity. The model indicates that a once-per-century storm would likely induce discrete aurorae at zenith down to a geomagnetic latitude of 34 ° . Insofar as aurorae can be taken as a proxy for electrojet currents, such a storm would expose many nighttime electric-power systems, in the contiguous United States or Europe, to high levels of geomagnetic disturbance. A Carrington-class storm would induce discrete aurorae down to 24 ° . These exposures are much greater than those indicated in recent numerical simulations of extreme magnetic storms. Using the model to infer storm intensity from reports of low-latitude aurorae, a storm on 28 August 1859, likely had maximum − Dst = 673 nT. That this storm occurred just a few days before the Carrington storm of 2 September (maximum − Dst = 964 nT) deserves attention. A storm that occurred on 17 September 1770 is estimated to have had maximum − Dst = 928 nT. The vision of Ezekiel could have been inspired by aurorae from a storm with maximum − Dst = 550 nT.