Geology topics

Hongqing Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Hongqing Wang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Modeling carbon fluxes in tidal forested wetlands in the Mississippi river deltaic plain under various hydrologic conditions: Implications for river diversions

Our understanding of the impacts of climate change, sea-level rise (SLR), and freshwater management on the magnitude and variability of carbon fluxes in tidal forested wetlands remains limited. In this study, we applied a process-driven wetland biogeochemistry model, Wetland Carbon Assessment Tool—DeNitrification-DeComposition (WCAT-DNDC) model to explore responses of carbon fluxes in tidal swamp forests to climate change-induced alterations in hydrologic conditions and to predict impacts of planned reintroduction of river flows. We selected twelve sites in three habitats (throughput, relict, degraded) inside the Lake Maurepas swamp forests (Louisiana, USA) to represent various hydrological and salinity regimes. Environmental scenarios included dry, average, and wet conditions, SLR (low and high), and a Mississippi River (MR) diversion. Simulation results showed that the responses of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), net primary productivity (NPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in the Lake Maurepas swamp forests varied substantially among sites. However, the overall net carbon uptake capacity of the Lake Maurepas swamp forests was high (NEE: − 1143 to − 1650 g C m −2 yr −1 ), suggesting that Lake Maurepas swamp forests are large carbon sinks. The high net carbon uptake capacity could be significantly affected by climate change induced drought, flooding, and SLR with the bi-directional changes (increase or decrease) depending on the direction and magnitude of the hydrologic regime changes. The response of the net carbon uptake capacity to MR diversion is also bi-directional and site-specific, but enhancement of the capacity of NEE of up to − 1957 g C m 2 yr −1 is possible, implying that MR diversion into the swamp forests could be beneficial in the context of carbon cycling and carbon sequestration.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Topographic and bathymetric survey in support of the effectiveness assessment of the living shoreline restoration in Gandys Beach, New Jersey

High resolution topobathymetric field surveys were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with Northeastern University and in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and The Nature Conservancy in a selected shoreline along Gandys Beach, New Jersey, from January to April 2018. These data are a critical model input for hydrodynamic and wave models and can affect the accuracy of model outputs such as wave height, water surface elevation, current velocity, and sediment transport. Gandys Beach is a living shoreline where constructed oyster reefs (CORs) were built to protect the shoreline and enhance habitat for oyster and other species. Because of the complex topography and bathymetry of the study area, higher spatial resolution topobathymetric data are required to resolve the vertical variations near the CORs. During the field survey, the global navigation satellite system positioning method was used to establish the elevation of a benchmark referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. The topobathymetric data were collected using a total station. Horizontal accuracy of plus or minus 0.05 foot (ft) and vertical accuracy of plus or minus 0.10 ft were calculated using root mean square error between duplicate surveys. Two existing datasets were integrated with the survey data to create an updated topobathymetric dataset for model input and analysis: (1) the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database 1-meter resolution data developed after Hurricane Sandy and (2) The Nature Conservancy 2017 elevation monitoring data at 10-meter resolution. A root mean square error analysis comparing survey data with the new topobathymetric dataset versus the survey data compared to the original Coastal National Elevation Data dataset showed errors of 0.31 and 2.61 ft, respectively. This improved dataset can be used for wave and hydrodynamic modeling in support of the effectiveness assessment of the CORs and living shoreline restoration along Gandys Beach.

New Jersey↗

USGS2024

Modeling the responses of blue carbon fluxes in Mississippi River Deltaic Plain brackish marshes to climate change induced hydrologic conditions

Carbon fluxes in tidal brackish marshes play a critical role in determining coastal wetland carbon sequestration and storage, thus affecting carbon crediting of coastal wetland restoration. In this study, a process-driven wetland biogeochemistry model, Wetland Carbon Assessment Tool DeNitrification-DeComposition was applied to nine brackish marsh sites in Mississippi River (MR) Deltaic Plain to examine the responses of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) to climate change. Simulations of a normal hydrologic year (2013), dry year (2011) and wet year (2021), and a hypothetical sea level rise (SLR) case were conducted as climate change scenarios. These climate change scenarios were determined by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Northeast Division of Coastal Louisiana during 2001–2021. Model results showed that GPP, ER, NEE, CH 4 , and N 2 O vary with site, and these brackish marshes lost carbon (net CO 2 emission) due to large reduction in primary productivity under the climate scenarios, as well as even during the normal hydrologic year. Average cross-site NEE were 148, 140 and 132 g C m −2 yr −1 in the dry, wet, and normal years (all net loss of wetland C). Under the hypothetical SLR, NEE were reduced by -25% compared to the normal year, but GPP and NPP were declined by -40% and -70%, respectively. These results suggest that climate change induced changes in soil salinity and water table depth will exacerbate carbon loss from tidal brackish marshes.

Louisiana↗

USGS2024

Numerical modeling of circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation in Long Island, New York

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

New York↗

USGS2023

Soil salinity and water level interact to generate tipping points in low salinity tidal wetlands responding to climate change

Low salinity tidal wetlands (LSTW) are vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, thus their carbon sequestration capacity is threatened. However, the thresholds of rapid changes in carbon dynamics and biogeochemical processes in LSTW due to changes in hydroperiod and salinity regime remain unclear. In this study, we examined the effects of soil porewater salinity and water level on changes in net primary productivity (NPP) and greenhouse gas fluxes [GHG: methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 )] in LSTW using a wetland biogeochemistry model, Tidal Freshwater Wetland Denitrification and Decomposition (TFW-DNDC). TFW-DNDC was run with a series of combinations of soil salinities (0.1, 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 psu) and water levels relative to soil surface (-30, -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, 20, 30 cm) for tidal forest and oligohaline marsh sites along the Savannah River and Waccamaw River, USA. Our results indicate that soil salinity and water level have antagonistic effects on CH 4 emissions and synergistic effects on CO 2 release. A soil salinity of 2-3 psu is the tipping point for the ecosystem level functional changes (e.g., NPP and CH 4 emissions) in LSTW. There are negative and nonlinear responses (NPP and CH 4 emission) to soil salinity. Furthermore, a soil water level from 10 cm below to 10 cm above the surface is a critical range in which biogeochemical processes respond strongly to hydrological changes. The presence of nonlinear tipping points in LSTW has large implications for understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on coastal wetland blue carbon storage and ecosystem dynamics.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2023

Spatial variability in vertical accretion and carbon sequestration in salt marsh soils of an urban estuary

Salt marshes in New York City’s Jamaica Bay have been disappearing and deteriorating since early 1900s, resulting in the loss of long-term accumulated carbon storage. However, the spatial variations and mechanisms in vertical accretion and soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration across this highly urbanized estuary remains unclear. In this study, we collected soil cores to a depth of ~ 50 cm across Jamaica Bay to study the spatial variability in long-term (50–100 years) vertical accretion, the accumulation of mineral sediment and organic matter, and SOC sequestration. Results of gamma spectrometry analysis of 137 Cs and 210 Pb show that there was moderate spatial variability in long-term vertical accretion rates across Jamaica Bay study sites (mean: 0.48 ± 0.13 cm yr − 1 , range: 0.36–0.78 cm yr − 1 ). This local scale spatial variability in vertical accretion is largely driven by spatial variations of sedimentation. The magnitude of the long-term vertical accretion in Jamaica Bay is significantly correlated with organic matter accumulation, but not with mineral sediment. However, the role of organic matter in contributing to vertical accretion has been declining. The declining role of organic matter to vertical accretion is reflected by the lower SOC sequestration rate (mean: 128 and range: 26–189 g C m − 2 yr − 1 using the 210 Pb dating technique) compared to the global mean salt marsh SOC sequestration rate (244 g C m − 2 yr − 1 ). This is especially so on the marsh islands in the degrading western part of the bay where SOC sequestration was less than half the global average.

New York↗

USGS2023

Modeling impacts of saltwater intrusion on methane and nitrous oxide emissions in tidal forested wetlands

Emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from soils to the atmosphere can offset the benefits of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. While past study has suggested that both CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) are generally low, the impacts of coastal droughts and drought-induced saltwater intrusion on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions remain unclear. In this study, a process-driven biogeochemistry model, Tidal Freshwater Wetland DeNitrification-DeComposition (TFW-DNDC) was applied to examine the responses of CH 4 and N 2 O emissions to episodic drought-induced saltwater intrusion in TFFW along the Waccamaw River and Savannah River, USA. These sites encompass landscape gradients of both surface and porewater salinity as influenced by Atlantic Ocean tides superimposed on periodic droughts. Surprisingly, CH 4 and N 2 O emission responsiveness to coastal droughts and drought-induced saltwater intrusion varied greatly between river systems and among local geomorphologic settings. This reflected the complexity of wetland CH 4 and N 2 O emissions and suggests that simple linkages to salinity may not always be relevant, as non-linear relationships dominated our simulations. Along the Savannah River, N 2 O emissions in the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest site tended to increase dramatically under the drought condition, while CH 4 emission decreased. For the Waccamaw River, emissions of both CH 4 and N 2 O in the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest site tended to decrease under the drought condition, but the capacity of the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest to serve as a carbon sink was substantially reduced due to significant declines in net primary productivity and soil organic carbon sequestration rates as salinity killed the dominant freshwater vegetation. These changes in fluxes of CH 4 and N 2 O reflect crucial synergistic effects of soil salinity and water level on C and N dynamics in TFFW due to drought-induced seawater intrusion.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2023

Monitoring of wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Chincoteague living shoreline, Virginia

Nature-based features, also called living shorelines, are increasingly applied in coastal protection and restoration. However, the processes and mechanisms (feedbacks and interactions) of wave attenuation, current velocity change, and sediment deposition and erosion along the living shoreline remain unclear, thus limiting the adaptive management of living shoreline restoration projects for coastal shoreline resilience under future storm conditions. In this study, wave, current, and sediment dynamics along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline, Chincoteague National Wildlife Refuge, Virginia, a low wave energy environment, were investigated during a 2-month winter period in 2019 to examine the effects of living shoreline structures on shoreline protection and oyster habitat enhancement. It was found that wave attenuation by the living shoreline structures (oyster castles or constructed oyster reefs) is dependent on water depth, wind speed, wind direction, and local bathymetry. Analysis of observed data indicate that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline play a limited role in wave attenuation in this low wave energy environment. During the 2-month winter period, wave energy was attenuated by 39.7 percent when oyster castles were emergent or slightly submerged with southwest winds. In contrast, when the oyster castles were fully submerged, wave energy behind the oyster castles increased by 38.6 percent. The construction of oyster castles affected circulation patterns with increase or decrease in velocity at nearshore waters protected by the castles depending on locations of measurements in relation to the oyster castles. Bottom shear stress analysis indicates that tidal currents play a larger role than waves on shoreline and marsh edge erosion along the Little Toms Cove shoreline during the 2 months of field monitoring. The oyster castles protecting the marsh edge and tidal flat from erosion resulted in higher fine sediment concentration in the water column landward of the castles because more sediment was retained in the lee side of the castles. It is important to maximize sediment within the wetlands and adjacent mudflats behind the oyster castles. Erosion from the marsh edge and interior serves as the major source of sediment for this wetland system due to the limited sediment supply in Assateague Channel. Furthermore, it was found that the oyster castles along the Little Toms Cove living shoreline were inundated more than 60 percent of the time, leading to the enhanced oyster habitat as evidenced by suitable velocity (less than 10 centimeters per second) and mean grain size (less than 0.08 millimeters) for oyster feeding and the increased oyster shell density and growth in the intertidal zone protected by the castles than in the control area. More field data (for example, concurrent monitoring of sediment concentration and salinity) over other seasons (for example, summer) could help examine the long term and combined engineering and ecological benefits of living shoreline restoration projects under seasonal and enhanced future storm conditions.

Virginia↗

USGS2023

Field observations and long short-term memory modeling of spectral wave evolution at living shorelines in Chesapeake Bay, USA

Living shorelines as a nature-based solution for climate change adaptation were constructed in many places around the world. The success of this type of projects requires long-term monitoring for adaptive management. The paper presents a novel framework leveraging scientific machine learning methods for accurate and rapid prediction of long-term hydrodynamic forcing impacting living shorelines using short-term measurements of water levels and wind waves in the largest estuary in the U.S. Different from existing data-driven wave prediction models focusing on significant wave heights, this study is focused on the prediction of wave energy spectra in shallow water using winds and tides as the input feature and short-term measurements of wave spectra and water depths as the label. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models were developed using four-month wave measurements in the stormy seasons to predict integral wave parameters and energy spectra for multiple years. The developed models accurately predicted wave heights, peak periods, and energy spectra around the living shorelines, capturing complex wave dynamics, such as wave generation by wind, nonlinear wave-wave interactions, and depth-limited wave breaking in the shallow water of a large estuary. The validated models were then used to determine the long-term wave forcing impacting the living shorelines based on the modeled wave characteristics and spectra. Model results show that the surrogate models utilizing LSTM to predict wave spectra in the frequency domain enable long-term predictions of spectral wave evolution with a minimal computational cost. Our findings provide valuable insights into the efficacy of living shorelines in attenuating wave energy and demonstrate the utility of this approach in assessing the effectiveness of such living shoreline structures.

Applied Ocean Research↗

USGS2023

Towards a unified drag coefficient formula for quantifying wave energy reduction by salt marshes

Coastal regions are susceptible to increasing flood risks amid climate change. Coastal wetlands play an important role in mitigating coastal hazards. Vegetation exerts a drag force to the flow and dampens storm surges and wind waves. The prediction of wave attenuation by vegetation typically relies on a pre-determined drag coefficient C D "> C D . Existing C D "> C D formulas are subject to vegetation biomechanical properties, especially the flexibility. Accounting for vegetation flexibility through the effective plant height (EPH), we propose and validate a species-independent relationship between C D "> C D and the Reynolds number R e "> Re based on three independent datasets that cover a wide range of hydrodynamic conditions and vegetation traits. The proposed C D − R e "> C D − Re relationship, used together with EPH, allows for predicting wave attenuation in salt marshes with high accuracy. Furthermore, a total of 308,000 numerical experiments with diverse wave conditions are conducted using the proposed C D − R e "> C D − Re relationship and EPH to quantify the wave attenuation capacity of two typical salt mash species: Elymus athericus (highly flexible) and Spartina alterniflora (relatively rigid). It is found that wave attenuation is controlled by wave height to water depth ratio and EPH to water depth ratio. When swaying in large waves in shallow to intermediate water depth, a 50-m-long Elymus athericus field may lose up to 30% capacity for wave attenuation. As wave height increases, highly flexible vegetation causes reduced wave attenuation, whereas relatively rigid vegetation induces increased wave attenuation. The leaf contribution to wave attenuation is highly dependent on the leaf rigidity. It is recommended that leaf properties, especially its Young’s modulus be collected in future field experiments.

Coastal Engineering↗

USGS2023

Modeling surface wave dynamics in upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Living shorelines gain increasing attention because they stabilize shorelines and reduce erosion. This study leverages physics-based models and bagged regression tree (BRT) machine learning algorithm to simulate wave dynamics at a living shoreline composed of constructed oyster reefs (CORs) in upper Delaware Bay. The physics-based models consist of coupled Delft3D-FLOW and SWAN in four-level nested domains. The model accuracy converges with increasing mesh resolution. The simulated wave-induced current circulation substantiates the effectiveness of CORs in trapping sediments. The simulated yearly-averaged wave power correlates qualitatively with historical shoreline retreat rates. BRT is adopted to improve the model accuracy, identify key processes responsible for simulation errors in wave height ( H 8 ) and wave period ( T p ), and quantify their importance. In the CORs sheltered area, BRT reveals that simulation errors of wind seas mainly arise from wind forcing, wave breaking and wave triad interactions. Wave breaking is seven times more important than wind forcing for simulating H 8 , while wind forcing and triad interactions are of equal importance for simulating T p . Simulation errors of swells mostly stem from bottom friction and offshore wave boundary conditions. Results from this study can help the assessment and adaptive management of CORs-based living shoreline restoration projects under climate change.

New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Are existing modeling tools useful to evaluate outcomes in mangrove restoration and rehabilitation projects? A minireview

Ecosystem modeling is a critical process for understanding complex systems at spatiotemporal scales needed to conserve, manage, and restore ecosystem services (ESs). Although mangrove wetlands are sources of ESs worth billions of dollars, there is a lack of modeling tools. This is reflected in our lack of understanding of mangroves’ functional and structural attributes. Here, we discuss the “state of the art” of mangrove models used in the planning and monitoring of R/R projects during the last 30 years. The main objectives were to characterize the most frequent modeling approach, their spatiotemporal resolution, and their current utility/application in management decisions. We identified 281 studies in six broad model categories: conceptual, agent-based (ABM), process-based (PBM), spatial, statistical, and socioeconomic/management (ScoEco). The most widely used models are spatial and statistical, followed by PBM, ScoEco, and conceptual categories, while the ABMs were the least frequently used. Yet, the application of mangrove models in R/R projects since the early 1990s has been extremely limited, especially in the mechanistic model category. We discuss several approaches to help advance model development and applications, including the targeted allocation of potential revenue from global carbon markets to R/R projects using a multi-model and integrated approach.

Forests↗

USGS2022

Modeling impacts of drought-induced salinity intrusion on carbon dynamics in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) provide critical ecosystem services including essential habitat for a variety of wildlife species and significant carbon sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, large uncertainties remain concerning the impacts of climate change on the magnitude and variability of carbon fluxes and storage across a range of TFFW. In this study, we developed a process-driven Tidal Freshwater Wetlands DeNitrification-DeComposition model (TFW-DNDC) that has integrated new features, such as soil salinity effects on plant productivity and soil organic matter decomposition to explore carbon dynamics in TFFW in response to drought-induced saltwater intrusion. Eight sites along the floodplains of the Waccamaw River (USA) and the Savannah River (USA) were selected to represent TFFW transition from healthy to moderately and highly salt-impacted forests, and eventually to oligohaline marshes. TFW-DNDC was calibrated and validated using field observed annual litterfall, stem growth, root growth, soil heterotrophic respiration and soil organic carbon storage. Analyses indicate that plant productivity and soil carbon sequestration in TFFW could change substantially in response to increased soil porewater salinity and reduced soil water table due to drought, but in interactive ways dependent on the river simulated. Such responses are variable due to non-linear relationships between carbon cycling processes and environmental drivers. Plant productivity, plant respiration, soil organic carbon sequestration rate and storage in the highly salt-impacted forest sites decreased significantly under drought conditions compared to normal conditions. Considering the high likelihood of healthy and moderately salt-impacted forests becoming highly salt-impacted forests under future climate change and sea-level rise, it is very likely that TFFW will lose their capacity as carbon sinks without up-slope migration.

Georgia, South Carolina↗

USGS2022

Assessing wave attenuation with rising sea levels for sustainable oyster reef-based living shorelines

In densely populated coastal areas with sea-level rise (SLR), protecting the shorelines against erosion due to the wave impact is crucial. Along with many engineered structures like seawalls and breakwaters, there are also green structures like constructed oyster reefs (CORs) that can not only attenuate the incident waves but also grow and maintain pace with SLR. However, there is a lack of data and understanding of the long-term wave attenuation capacity of the living shoreline structures under SLR. In this study, we used the phase-resolving Boussinesq model, FUNWAVE-TVD, to examine the hydrodynamics including wave height and wave-induced currents around the CORs in the Gandys Beach living shoreline project area in the upper Delaware Bay, United States. Waves were measured at six locations (offshore to onshore, with and without CORs) in the Gandys Beach living shoreline project area for two winter months, during which four nor’easters occurred. We selected three cases that represent prevailing wind, wave, and tide conditions to examine the fine spatial and temporal changes in wave height and current velocity by the construction of the reefs. Wave heights and wave energy spectra generated from FUNWAVE-TVD were then validated with field observations. It is found that FUNWAVE-TVD is capable of simulating waves and associated hydrodynamic processes that interact with CORs. The model results show that wave attenuation rates vary with the incident wave properties and water depth, and wave-induced circulation patterns are affected by the CORs. The wave attenuation capacity of CORs over the next 100 years was simulated with the incorporation of the oyster reef optimal growth zone. Our study found that sustainable wave attenuation capacity can only be achieved when suitable habitat for COR is provided, thus it can vertically grow with SLR. Suitable habitat includes optimal intertidal inundation duration, current velocity for larval transport and settlement, on-reef oyster survival and growth, and other environmental conditions including salinity, temperature, and nutrient availability. Furthermore, the model results suggest that it would take CORs approximately 9 years after construction to reach and maintain the maximum wave attenuation capacity in sustainable living shorelines.

Delaware, New Jersey↗

USGS2022

Data-driven modeling of wind waves in upper Delaware Bay with living shorelines

Living shoreline projects have been built to preserve coastal ecosystems under future climate change and sea level rise. To quantify the wave power variation across living shorelines, the wave characteristics around the constructed oyster reefs (CORs) in upper Delaware Bay were investigated in this study. Wave parameters seaward and shoreward of CORs were recorded by wave gauges in early 2018. Four winter storms happened in this period and induced strong winds and coastal flooding at the study site. To estimate the wind wave characteristics across the CORs on a yearly basis, soft computing-based models combining fully connected neural networks and long short-term memory were developed to extend the two-month energetic wave measurements. The results show that when CORs were emergent or slightly submerged, the averaged wave height attenuation was about 39.8% from the offshore gauge to the nearshore gauge (behind CORs) during 2018–2020, owing to the combined effect of nearshore bathymetric changes and CORs. Furthermore, it was found that the annually averaged wave power reduction from offshore to nearshore at the study site was about 30.0% in 2018, 2019, and 2020. This study provides a novel framework to predict long-term wave characteristics based on short-term wave measurements using soft computing-based models.

New Jersey↗

USGS2021

Assessing habitat change and migration of barrier islands

Barrier islands are dynamic environments that experience gradual change from waves, tides, and currents, and rapid change from extreme storms. These islands are expected to change drastically over the coming century due to accelerated sea-level rise and changes in frequency and intensity of storm events. The dynamic nature of barrier islands coupled with the importance of these environments make it critical for natural resource managers to understand how habitats on barrier islands are changing or may change over time to determine when and where management actions may be needed. In this study, we applied a habitat change assessment framework, which included exploring areal coverage and distribution changes and change component analysis. Change component analysis, which breaks differences into net gain/loss and allocation difference (i.e., habitat oscillation), has not previously been used to study barrier island habitat evolution. Here, we demonstrate the approach using habitat predictions from a geomorphic modeling effort on Dauphin Island, Alabama (USA). We explored differences of habitat predictions for potential island configurations with and without a beach and dune restoration action under future conditions related to sea level and storminess. We found a potential linkage between landward migration of barrier islands and exchange, an output of change component analysis. The hypothesis may be tested to explore whether this linkage applies over space and time and whether the approach is applicable to monitoring landward migration of coastal wetlands. Collectively, our results highlight the utility of change component analysis for monitoring and quantifying barrier island habitat change and migration.

Alabama↗

USGS2021

Modeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions

Self-organization is a process of establishing and reinforcing local structures through feedbacks between internal population dynamics and external factors. In reef-building systems, substrate is collectively engineered by individuals that also occupy it and compete for space. Reefs are constrained spatially by the physical environment, and by mortality, which reduces production but exposes substrate for recruits. Reef self-organization therefore depends on efficient balancing of production and occupancy of substrate. To examine this, we develop a three-dimensional individual-based model (IBM) of oyster reef mechanics. Shell substrate is grown by individuals as valves, accumulates at the reef level, and degrades following mortality. Single restoration events and subsequent dynamics are simulated for a case study in South Carolina (USA). Variability in model processes is included on recruitment, spatial environmental constraints, and predation, over multiple independent runs and five predator community scenarios. The main goal for this study is to summarize trends in dynamics that are robust across this uncertainty, and from these generate new hypotheses and predictions for future studies. Simulation results demonstrate three phases following restoration: initial transient dynamics with considerable shell loss, followed by growth and saturation of the live population, and then saturation of settlement habitat several years later. Over half of simulations recoup initial shell losses as populations grow, while others continue in decline. The balance between population density, substrate supporting the reef, and exposed surfaces for settlement is mediated by overall population size and size structure, presence of predators, and relative amounts of live individuals and intact dead shells. The efficiency of settlement substrate production improves through time as population size structure becomes more complex, and the population of dead valves accumulates.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2020

Modeling soil porewater salinity response to drought in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

There is a growing concern about the adverse effects of saltwater intrusion via tidal rivers, streams and creeks into tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) due to sea‐level rise (SLR) and intense and extended drought events. However, the magnitude and duration of porewater salinity in exceedance of plant salinity stress threshold (2 practical salinity units, psu) and the controlling factors remain unclear. In this study, we developed a TFFW soil porewater salinity model, in which the feedback mechanisms between soil salinity and evapotranspiration and hydraulic conductivity were incorporated. We selected sites (upper, middle, lower tidal freshwater forest sites and oligohaline marsh site) along the coastal floodplains of two rivers, the Waccamaw River (SC, USA) and the Savannah River (GA and SC, USA), that represent landscape salinity gradients from tidal influence of the Atlantic Ocean. The model results agreed well with field measurements and revealed that with drought‐induced saltwater intrusion, the mean annual soil porewater salinity and duration of elevated soil porewater salinity (> 2 psu) increased significantly compared to the normal (non‐drought) condition, posing a threat to the health and ecosystem services of TFFW even in the absence of SLR. Model results also showed more severe salinity stress under drought for the lower forest sites along the two rivers, where soil salinity values have already been at or in exceedance of the 2 psu threshold.

Georgia, South Carolina↗