Geology topics

Holly J. Beck

Publications and source records attributed to Holly J. Beck.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

Predicting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on soil organic carbon sequestration

Large Mississippi River (MR) diversions (peak water flow >1416 m 3 /s and sediment loads >165 kg/s) have been proposed as part of a suite of coastal restoration projects and are expected to rehabilitate and rebuild wetlands to alleviate the significant historic wetland loss in coastal Louisiana. These coastal wetlands are undergoing increasing eustatic sea‐level rise, land subsidence, climate change, and anthropogenic disturbances. However, the effect of MR diversions on wetland soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in receiving basins remains unknown. The rate of SOC sequestration or carbon burial in wetlands is one of the variables used to assess the role of wetland soils in carbon cycling and also to construct wetland carbon budgets. In this study, we examined the effects of MR water and sediment diversions on landscape‐scale SOC sequestration rates that were estimated from vertical accretion for the next 50 yr (2010–2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Our analyses were based on model simulations taken from the Wetland Morphology model developed for Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan. The master plan modeled a “future‐without‐action” scenario as well as eight individual MR diversion projects in two of the hydrologic basins (Barataria and Breton Sound). We examined the effects that discharge rates (peak flow) and locations of these individual diversion projects had on SOC sequestration rates. Modeling results indicate that large river diversions are capable of improving basin‐wide SOC sequestration capacity (162–222 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) by up to 14% (30 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) in Louisiana deltaic wetlands compared to the future‐without‐action scenario, especially under the less optimistic scenario. When large river diversions are placed in the upper receiving basin, SOC sequestration rates are 3.7–10.5% higher (6–24 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ) than when these structures are placed in the lower receiving basin. Modeling results also indicate that both diversion discharge and location have large effects on SOC sequestration in low‐salinity (freshwater and intermediate marshes) as compared to high‐salinity marshes (brackish and saline marshes).

Louisiana↗

USGS2016

Spatial configuration trends in coastal Louisiana from 1985 to 2010

From 1932 to 2010, coastal Louisiana has experienced a net loss of 4877 km 2 of wetlands. As the area of these wetlands has changed, so too has the spatial configuration of the landscape. The resulting landscape is a mosaic of patches of wetlands and open water. This study examined the spatial and temporal variability of trajectories of landscape configuration and the relation of those patterns to the trajectories of land change in wetlands during a 1985–2010 observation period. Spatial configuration was quantified using multi-temporal satellite imagery and an aggregation index (AI). The results of this analysis indicate that coastal Louisiana experienced a reduction in the AI of coastal wetlands of 1.07 %. In general, forested wetland and fresh marsh types displayed the highest aggregation and stability. The remaining marsh types, (intermediate, brackish, and saline) all experienced disaggregation during the time period, with increasing severity of disaggregation along an increasing salinity gradient. Finally, a correlation ( r 2  = 0.5562) was found between AI and the land change rate for the subsequent period, indicating that fragmentation can increase the vulnerability of wetlands to further wetland loss. These results can help identify coastal areas which are susceptible to future wetland loss.

Louisiana↗

USGS2014

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km 2 ) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m 3 s -1 ) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m 3 s -1 ) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

USGS2013

Forecasting the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology in coastal Louisiana under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios

Few landscape scale models have assessed the effects of coastal protection and restoration projects on wetland morphology while taking into account important uncertainties in environmental factors such as sea-level rise (SLR) and subsidence. In support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan, we developed a spatially explicit wetland morphology model and coupled it with other predictive models. The model is capable of predicting effects of protection and restoration projects on wetland area, landscape configuration, surface elevation, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage under multiple environmental uncertainty scenarios. These uncertainty scenarios included variability in parameters such as eustatic SLR (ESLR), subsidence rate, and Mississippi River discharge. Models were run for a 2010–2060 simulation period. Model results suggest that under a “future-without-action” condition (FWOA), coastal Louisiana is at risk of losing between 2118 and 4677 km 2 of land over the next 50 years, but with protection and restoration projects proposed in the Master Plan, between 40% and 75% of that loss could be mitigated. Moreover, model results indicate that under a FWOA condition, SOC storage (to a depth of 1 m) could decrease by between 108 and 250 million metric tons, a loss of 12% to 30% of the total coastwide SOC, but with the Master Plan implemented, between 35% and 74% of the SOC loss could be offset. Long-term maintenance of project effects was best attained in areas of low SLR and subsidence, with a sediment source to support marsh accretion. Our findings suggest that despite the efficacy of restoration projects in mitigating losses in certain areas, net loss of wetlands in coastal Louisiana is likely to continue. Model results suggest certain areas may eventually be lost regardless of proposed restoration investment, and, as such, other techniques and strategies of adaptation may have to be utilized in these areas.

Louisiana↗