Geology topics

Hilary McMillan

Publications and source records attributed to Hilary McMillan.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Emergent headwater types for watershed monitoring, research, and planning

Headwaters—that is headwater streams and the watersheds they drain—strongly influence water quality, ecosystem services, and hydrologic connectivity, yet remain poorly mapped, monitored, and understood at large spatial scales. Using available spatial data to classify headwater “types” could therefore enhance the utility of sparse monitoring data to advance research and watershed planning—and help update literature-based perceptual models of headwaters as steep, forested, and minimally disturbed watersheds. Here, we analyze headwaters across the contiguous United States to quantify how their attributes (climate, topography, land cover, soils) vary regionally and differ from their downstream watersheds. Our analysis (a) identified seven dominant headwater types with distinct combinations of biophysical and climatic attributes and (b) revealed systematic contrasts with downstream watersheds, with strongest differences in attributes representing potential flowpath depth. Our findings offer a transferable framework for classifying, modeling, and managing these critical yet understudied components of the hydrologic network.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Continental-scale prediction of hydrologic signatures and processes

Understanding how dominant hydrologic processes and their drivers vary across diverse continental-scale landscapes is critical for hydrologic modeling and water management applications. Our research addresses this question by synthesizing large-sample watershed datasets, Caravan and GAGES-II, and developing random forest models to identify patterns in hydrologic function. We assessed dominant processes by examining hydrologic signatures – summary indicators of watershed function derived from hydroclimatic time series and random forest models across 14 146 gauged United States watersheds. The results reveal clear continental-scale gradients in hydrologic processes, including baseflow, overland flow, storage, and water balance losses. Our map of dominant processes highlights, for example, the transition from baseflow to fast responses and back to baseflow along the elevation gradient from the Appalachian spine, through the Piedmont, to the Eastern Coastal Plain; a distinct outer ring around the Great Lakes region; and sharp contrasts between coastal and inland processes in the West. Variable importance analysis from random forest models show that processes in the western U.S. are primarily controlled by climate, whereas in the eastern U.S., soil, geology, and topography play larger roles, with distinct human influences apparent in urban areas. Our approach of estimating dominant processes and their drivers facilitates extending process knowledge from research watersheds to the continental scale, assessing current hydrological understanding, and evaluating hydrological model structures.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Advancing the science of headwater streamflow for global water protection

The protection of headwater streams faces increasing challenges, exemplified by limited global recognition of headwater contributions to watershed resiliency and a recent US Supreme Court decision limiting federal safeguards. Despite accounting for ~77% of global river networks, the lack of adequate headwaters protections is caused, in part, by limited information on their extent and functions—in particular, their flow regimes, which form the foundation for decision-making regarding their protection. Yet, headwater streamflow is challenging to comprehensively measure and model; it is highly variable and sensitive to changes in land use, management and climate. Modelling headwater streamflow to quantify its cumulative contributions to downstream river networks requires an integrative understanding across local hillslope and channel (that is, watershed) processes. Here we begin to address this challenge by proposing a consistent definition for headwater systems and streams, evaluating how headwater streamflow is characterized and advocating for closing gaps in headwater streamflow data collection, modelling and synthesis.

Nature Water↗

USGS2016

mizuRoute version 1: A river network routing tool for a continental domain water resources applications

This paper describes the first version of a stand-alone runoff routing tool, mizuRoute. The mizuRoute tool post-processes runoff outputs from any distributed hydrologic model or land surface model to produce spatially distributed streamflow at various spatial scales from headwater basins to continental-wide river systems. The tool can utilize both traditional grid-based river network and vector-based river network data. Both types of river network include river segment lines and the associated drainage basin polygons, but the vector-based river network can represent finer-scale river lines than the grid-based network. Streamflow estimates at any desired location in the river network can be easily extracted from the output of mizuRoute. The routing process is simulated as two separate steps. First, hillslope routing is performed with a gamma-distribution-based unit-hydrograph to transport runoff from a hillslope to a catchment outlet. The second step is river channel routing, which is performed with one of two routing scheme options: (1) a kinematic wave tracking (KWT) routing procedure; and (2) an impulse response function – unit-hydrograph (IRF-UH) routing procedure. The mizuRoute tool also includes scripts (python, NetCDF operators) to pre-process spatial river network data. This paper demonstrates mizuRoute's capabilities to produce spatially distributed streamflow simulations based on river networks from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Fabric (GF) data set in which over 54 000 river segments and their contributing areas are mapped across the contiguous United States (CONUS). A brief analysis of model parameter sensitivity is also provided. The mizuRoute tool can assist model-based water resources assessments including studies of the impacts of climate change on streamflow.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2015

Accelerating advances in continental domain hydrologic modeling

In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives. Those include: (1) creating new incentives and infrastructure to report and share model inputs, outputs, and parameters in data services and open access, machine-independent formats for model replication or reanalysis; (2) ensuring that hydrologic models have: sufficient complexity to represent the dominant physical processes and adequate representation of anthropogenic impacts on the terrestrial water cycle, a process-based approach to model parameter estimation, and appropriate parameterizations to represent large-scale fluxes and scaling behavior; (3) maintaining a balance between model complexity and data availability as well as uncertainties; and (4) quantifying and communicating significant advancements toward these modeling goals.

Water Resources Research↗