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Henry F. Diaz

Publications and source records attributed to Henry F. Diaz.

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Climate variability and change in high elevation regions: Past, present & future

This special issue of Climatic Change contains a series of research and review articles, arising from papers that were presented and discussed at a workshop held in Davos, Switzerland on 25–28 June 2001. The workshop was titled ‘Climate Change at High Elevation Sites: Emerging Impacts’, and was convened to reprise an earlier conference on the same subject that was held in Wengen, Switzerland in 1995 (Diaz et al., 1997). The Davos meeting had as its main goals, a discussion of the following key issues: (1) reviewing recent climatic trends in high elevation regions of the world, (2) assessing the reliability of various biological indicators as indicators of climatic change, and (3) assessing whether physical impacts of climatic change in high elevation areas are becoming evident, and to discuss a range of monitoring strategies needed to observe and to understand the nature of any changes.

Climatic Change

Paleoclimate reconstruction along the Pole-Equator-Pole transect of the Americas (PEP 1)

Examples are presented of inter-hemispheric comparison of instrumental climate and paleoclimate proxy records from the Americas for different temporal scales. Despite a certain symmetry of seasonal precipitation patterns along the PEP I transect, decadal variability of winter precipitation shows different characteristics in terms of amplitude and frequency in both the last 100 and last 1000 years. Such differences in variability are also seen in a comparison of time series of different El Nino/Southern Oscillation proxy records from North and South America, however, these differences do not appear to affect the spatial correlation with Pacific sea surface temperature patterns. Local and regional differences in response to climate change are even more pronounced for records with lower temporal resolution, and inter-hemispheric synchroneity may or may not be indicative of the same forcing. This aspect is illustrated in an inter-hemispheric comparison of the last 1000 years of glacier variability, and of the full- and lateglacial lake level history.

Conference Paper

A Possible connection between the 1878 yellow fever epidemic in the southern United States and the 1877-78 El Niño episode

One of the most severe outbreaks of yellow fever, a viral disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, affected the southern United States in the summer of 1878. The economic and human toll was enormous, and the city of Memphis, Tennessee, was one of the most affected. The authors suggest that as a consequence of one of the strongest El Niño episodes on record—that which occurred in 1877-78—exceptional climate anomalies occurred in the United States (as well as in many other parts of the world), which may have been partly responsible for the widespread nature and severity of the 1878 yellow fever outbreak. This study documents some of the extreme climate anomalies that were recorded in 1877 and 1878 in parts of the eastern United States, with particular emphasis on highlighting the evolution of these anomalies, as they might have contributed to the epidemic. Other years with major outbreaks of yellow fever in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries also occurred during the course of El Niño episodes, a fact that appears not to have been noted before in the literature.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Journal of Climate

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Journal of Climate