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Hendra Gunawan

Publications and source records attributed to Hendra Gunawan.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2021

Synoptic analysis of a decade of daily measurements of SO2 emission in the troposphere from volcanoes of the global ground-based Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change

Volcanic plumes are common and far-reaching manifestations of volcanic activity during and between eruptions. Observations of the rate of emission and composition of volcanic plumes are essential to recognize and, in some cases, predict the state of volcanic activity. Measurements of the size and location of the plumes are important to assess the impact of the emission from sporadic or localized events to persistent or widespread processes of climatic and environmental importance. These observations provide information on volatile budgets on Earth, chemical evolution of magmas, and atmospheric circulation and dynamics. Space-based observations during the last decades have given us a global view of Earth's volcanic emission, particularly of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ). Although none of the satellite missions were intended to be used for measurement of volcanic gas emission, specially adapted algorithms have produced time-averaged global emission budgets. These have confirmed that tropospheric plumes, produced from persistent degassing of weak sources, dominate the total emission of volcanic SO 2 . Although space-based observations have provided this global insight into some aspects of Earth's volcanism, it still has important limitations. The magnitude and short-term variability of lower-atmosphere emissions, historically less accessible from space, remain largely uncertain. Operational monitoring of volcanic plumes, at scales relevant for adequate surveillance, has been facilitated through the use of ground-based scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments since the beginning of this century, largely due to the coordinated effort of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC). In this study, we present a compilation of results of homogenized post-analysis of measurements of SO 2 flux and plume parameters obtained during the period March 2005 to January 2017 of 32 volcanoes in NOVAC. This inventory opens a window into the short-term emission patterns of a diverse set of volcanoes in terms of magma composition, geographical location, magnitude of emission, and style of eruptive activity. We find that passive volcanic degassing is by no means a stationary process in time and that large sub-daily variability is observed in the flux of volcanic gases, which has implications for emission budgets produced using short-term, sporadic observations. The use of a standard evaluation method allows for intercomparison between different volcanoes and between ground- and space-based measurements of the same volcanoes. The emission of several weakly degassing volcanoes, undetected by satellites, is presented for the first time. We also compare our results with those reported in the literature, providing ranges of variability in emission not accessible in the past. The open-access data repository introduced in this article will enable further exploitation of this unique dataset, with a focus on volcanological research, risk assessment, satellite-sensor validation, and improved quantification of the prevalent tropospheric component of global volcanic emission.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2019

Using a process-based model of pre-eruptive seismic patterns to forecast evolving eruptive styles at Sinabung Volcano, Indonesia

Most volcanoes worldwide are not monitored in real-time; for those that are, patterns of pre-eruptive earthquakes coupled with conceptual models of magma ascent enable short-term forecasting of eruption onset. Basic event locations, characterization of background seismicity, and recognition of changes in earthquake types and energy release are most important to successful eruption forecasting. During renewed activity at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, this approach was used by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazards Mitigation (CVGHM) and the USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program to forecast eruption onset, identify changes in eruptive styles and raise or lower alert levels and extend or contract evacuation zones. After > 400 years of quiescence, Sinabung began erupting in August 2010. The volcano was unmonitored at the onset of these eruptions, which were phreatic, but soon after a monitoring network was installed by CVGHM. Increasing swarms of high-frequency volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes were used to forecast continuing phreatic eruptions. Volcanic activity decreased in mid-September 2010, while additional intrusions at depth (inferred from continued distal VT swarms) continued through September 2013, when explosive phreatic eruptions recurred. Explosive eruptions were forecast based on increases in real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and VT seismicity. Seismicity changed markedly in late November and early December 2013 with the occurrence of deep earthquakes and an overall transition from low-frequency (LF) dominated and irregular (in time and magnitude) earthquakes to more regular LF and hybrid seismicity – a transition that accompanied the continued rise, eventual emergence and growth of a lava dome in the summit crater. This lava dome was first observed on 18 December. In late December 2013 to early January 2014, the eruptive style changed again as additional ascending magma deformed the summit and the dome grew beyond the capacity of the summit crater, resulting in the en masse collapse of the lava dome (2 Mm3) on 11 January and the largest pyroclastic flow to date. The collapse was forecast on the basis of a several order of magnitude increase in RSAM, continued strong distal VT seismicity, an increase in proximal seismicity, and large-scale observed deformation of the summit area. Similarly, a later collapse of a second summit lava dome on 1 February 2014 was forecast on the basis of increased distal seismicity. Here, we demonstrate how a process-based volcano seismicity model was used in combination with real-time data to forecast the time and magnitude of eruptions, as well as changes in eruption style.

Sinabung Volcano↗
USGS2019

Overview of the eruptions of Sinabung Volcano, 2010 and 2013-present, and details of the 2013 phreatomagmatic phase

A small phreatic eruption of Sinabung Volcano, North Sumatra on August 28, 2010, at 18:30 local time marked the first eruption in the past ~1200 years. The eruption took place from two small vents in the south crater area. Explosions and ash emissions from these vents generated multiple ash plumes that reached altitudes of up to 5 km during early- to mid-September. By the end of September, only low level steam plumes were visible and the alert level was reduced from Level 4 (highest) to Level 3. The 2010 eruption effectively ended at this time. Beginning two days after the initial 2010 eruption, activity of the eruption has been monitoring continuously by a telemetered seismic network surrounding the volcano and by remotely sensed observations. This monitoring system was supplemented with a near-field continuous GPS network, beginning in February 2011. Persistent fumarolic emissions continued for almost 3 years following the 2010 eruption, before a new eruption began on 15 September 2013. This eruption continues to the present. The ongoing eruption is divided into 5 major phases: 1) phreatomagmatic phase (July 2013 - 18 December 2013); 2) first dome and collapse phase with pyroclastic density currents (PDCs; block-and-ash flows and related surges) to south (18 December 2013 - 10 January 2014); 3) lava-flow and collapse phase (10 January 2014 - mid-September 2014); 4) second lava dome and collapse phase with PDCs to south (mid-September 2014 - July 2015); 5) lava dome collapse and ash explosion phase with PDCs to southeast and east (August 2015 - present). The volcano erupted intermittently during the early phreatomagmatic phase with small vertical ash explosions. Then the eruption became increasingly vigorous with more repetitive and intense vertical ash explosions during late October through November. The first small pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) began on November 1. These pyroclastic flows descended the southeastern flank to a distance of 2 km.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2019

Joint 3-D tomographic imaging of Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs and hypocenter relocation at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia from November to December 2013

We conducted travel time tomography using P- and S-wave arrival times of volcanic-tectonic (VT) events that occurred between November and December 2013 to determine the three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity structure (Vp, Vs, and Vp/Vs) beneath Sinabung volcano, Indonesia in order to delineate geological subsurface structure and to enhance our understanding of the volcanism itself. This was a time period when phreatic explosions became phreatomagmatic and then magma migrated to the surface forming a summit lava dome. We used 4846 VT events with 16,138 P- and 16,138 S-wave arrival time phases recorded by 6 stations for the tomographic inversion. The relocated VTs collapse into three clusters at depths from the surface to sea level, from 2 to 4 km below sea level, and from 5 to 8.5 km below sea level. The tomographic inversion results show three prominent regions of high Vp/Vs (~ 1.8) beneath Sinabung volcano at depths consistent with the relocated earthquake clusters. We interpret these anomalies as intrusives associated with previous eruptions and possibly surrounding the magma conduit, which we cannot resolve with this study. One anomalous region might contain partial melt, at sea level and below the eventual eruption site at the summit. Our results are important for the interpretation of a conceptual model of the “plumbing system” of this hazardous volcano.

Sinabung Volcano↗
USGS2019

Monitoring, forecasting collapse events, and mapping pyroclastic deposits at Sinabung volcano with satellite imagery

During the ongoing (2013–present) eruption of Sinabung volcano, north Sumatra, we have routinely used a variety of satellite remote sensing data to observe and forecast lava dome and lava flow collapse events, to map the resulting pyroclastic deposits, and to estimate effusion rates. In this paper, we focus on the first two years of the current eruption (September 2013–December 2015), and we summarize major events in 2016. We divide the eruption into 5 major phases: 1) phreatomagmatic (July 2013–18 December 2013), 2) first dome growth and collapse (18 December 2013–10 January 2014), 3) lava-flow (10 January 2014–mid-September 2014), 4) second lava dome and collapse (mid-September 2014–July 2015), 5) lava dome collapse and ash explosion phase (August 2015–present). Throughout the eruption, remotely sensed information has been instrumental in assessing the stability of the lava dome and flow and to forecast collapse events that produce pyroclastic density currents (PDCs: block-and-ash flows, co-ignimbrite surges, and blasts). Forecasts based on remote sensing data in combination with seismic, geodetic and gas-monitoring data have also helped inform decisions related to alert levels and evacuations. Relatively unusual aspects of the Sinabung eruption include the transition from dome to flow morphology (phase 2 to phase 3 transition) and the frequent occurrence during phase 3 of collapses from the lava flow-front and flow-margins—collapses that produced extensive pyroclastic density currents. By analogy to the well-known “Merapi type” collapses and pyroclastic deposits, we propose that lava flow-front and flow-margin collapses with associated PDCs be known as “Sinabung type.” Although detailed study of deposits has not been possible due to continuing hazards, our observations suggest that the transition from lava dome to lava flow and the occurrence of flow-front and flow-margin collapses reflect a particular combination of lava viscosity and steepness of slope. Our observations also show clear evidence of at least one slope-parallel high-velocity and dilute PDC (a “blast”) that emanated from a lava-margin collapse site 500 m downslope from the vent. This 1 February 2014 blast downed and singed a forest out to at least 3.9 km from the collapse site and killed 16 people. We also use a combination of field and remotely sensed data to map the distribution of Sinabung deposits. We estimate eruptive volumes and extrusion rates by combining sequential measurements of lava surface and pyroclastic flow areas with thickness estimates derived from simple geometric assumptions, oblique photographs and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) derived from remotely sensed data. Our estimates of short-term effusion rates vary widely on a daily to weekly basis, from <1 to >20 m 3 s −1 . In a few cases, periods of increased extrusion precede lava flow-front collapses by a few days to a week, suggesting delays in transmittance of effusion pulses as lava moves from vent to flow front. We find that, as of 1 January 2016, the total area of deposits is 10 7 m 2 , and their approximate deposit volume is about 0.3 km 3 , equivalent to 0.2 km 3 Dense Rock Equivalent (DRE). We anticipate that our deposit maps will be valuable in the future as a framework for the study of the magmatic and textural evolution of eruptive products through time.

Sinabung volcano↗
USGS2019

3-D seismic tomographic study of Sinabung Volcano, Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, during the inter-eruptive period October 2010-July 2013

We estimated 3D P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and Vp/Vs tomographic structures in and around the Sinabung Volcano area, Northern Sumatra, Indonesia during the intereruptive period between October 2010 and July 2013 using high-quality P- and S-wave phases from > 600 local volcano tectonic (VT) earthquakes and more than 5000 phase picks. We used the iteritive damped-least-squares method of SIMULPS12 to simultaneously invert for the velocity structure and hypocenter relocations. We find that the majority of the VT earthquakes locate beneath Sinabung volcano to depths of about 8 km, with distal hypocenters dominantly to the north and northwest of the summit. We find six anomalous regions with the most notable including an area of low seismicity, high Vp/Vs and low Vp at depths of around 5 km slightly south of the summit. We believe this anomaly most likely represents hot material with some partial melt that may be the source for the 2010 phreatic eruptions and continued unrest throughout the study period. We also find a region below the summit with high seismicity, high Vp, high Vs and low Vp/Vs that we believe likely represents old intrusive material that has been fractured by the processes of the 2010 phreatic eruptions. Other shallow anomalous values of Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs are consistent with the known geology of Sinabung: anomalies of high Vp and Vs likely represent old, well-consolidated rock, and are observed to the SW and NE of Sinabung; while low Vp, low Vs and high Vp/Vs likely represent increased fracture densities, temperatures, or gas contents in geothermal features to the west of the summit. Finally we compare our results to those of the tomographic study during the October to November 2013 eruptive period in Nugraha et al. (this issue) and find evidence that suggests magma rose from the lower region imaged in our study to within a few kilometers of the surface.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗