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Harvey Kelsey

Publications and source records attributed to Harvey Kelsey.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT): Advancing understanding of Cascadia's earthquake hazards

The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) is capable of producing large megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, posing significant risks to the Pacific Northwest. This paper examines the seismic characteristics of the CSZ, including its offshore coupling, sparse seismicity, and a complex paleoseismic record. While recent advances in geophysical methods and data collection have improved our understanding of subduction zone processes, important uncertainties remain regarding rupture dynamics, ground shaking, and tsunami impacts. The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) has been established to address these challenges through coordinated research, education, and community engagement. By integrating scientific studies, fostering collaboration, and leveraging new technologies, CRESCENT seeks to improve hazard assessment and resilience in the region. This paper outlines the primary challenges and opportunities in advancing subduction zone science and enhancing societal preparedness for future CSZ events.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Debris avalanches in the northern California Coast Range triggered by plate boundary earthquakes

Determining the timing and cause for ancient hillslope failures proves difficult in the western United States, yet critical as it ties directly into groundmotion estimates for hazardous events. This knowledge gap is important to confront as hillslope failures are candidates to be triggered by earthquakes along active plate boundaries. We identify two prehistoric, i.e., preinstrumental history, debris avalanches (3 10^6 and 6 10^6 m^3) in the Coast Ranges of northern California. These debris avalanches are well suited for studying the timing (to the exact year) and trigger as the densely forested landscape enables effective use of dendrochronology and high-resolution radiocarbon to pinpoint time of failure, and the legacy of landslide studies in the region provides context for evaluating a seismic trigger as the most likely triggering mechanism. Neither debris avalanche was triggered by the largest precipitation event of the instrumental record in 1964 CE, and the two debris avalanche sites are physiographically suited to accommodate topographic amplification of seismic shaking. Through a suite of geologic and dendrochronologic evidence, we establish the likely time of failure of the two debris avalanches as 1906 CE and 933 CE. The failure of the younger landslide coincides with the 1906 CE San Francisco earthquake on the Pacific/North American plate boundary, while the older landslide dates to 933 CE falling within the broad age range (850-966 CE) of a likely megathrust earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone as recorded in coastal marshes in Humboldt Bay, California. The precise age on the 933 CE debris avalanche could trim the uncertainty on a Cascadia subduction zone event from 116 years to one year. Utilizing debris avalanche records from sites suitable to record seismic shaking improves understanding of plate-boundary earthquake timing and extent of shaking.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2021

Extreme Quaternary plate boundary exhumation and strike slip localized along the southern Fairweather fault, Alaska, USA

The Fairweather fault (southeastern Alaska, USA) is Earth’s fastest-slipping intracontinental strike-slip fault, but its long-term role in localizing Yakutat–(Pacific–)North America plate motion is poorly constrained. This plate boundary fault transitions northward from pure strike slip to transpression where it comes onshore and undergoes a <25°, 30-km-long restraining double bend. To the east, apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) ages indicate that North America exhumation rates increase stepwise from ~0.7 to 1.7 km/m.y. across the bend. In contrast, to the west, AHe age-depth data indicate that extremely rapid 5–10 km/m.y. Yakutat exhumation rates are localized within the bend. Further northwest, Yakutat AHe and zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) ages gradually increase from 0.3 to 2.6 Ma over 150 km and depict an interval of extremely rapid >6–8 km/m.y. exhumation rates that increases in age away from the bend. We interpret this migration of rapid, transient exhumation to reflect prolonged advection of the Cenozoic–Cretaceous sedimentary cover of the eastern Yakutat microplate through a stationary restraining bend along the edge of the North America plate. Yakutat cooling ages imply a long-term strike-slip rate (54 ± 6 km/m.y.) that mimics the millennial (53 ± 5 m/k.y.) and decadal (46 mm/yr) rates. Fairweather fault slip can account for all Pacific–North America relative plate motion throughout Quaternary time and indicates stability of highly localized plate boundary strike slip on a single fault where extreme rock uplift rates are persistently localized within a restraining bend.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Toward an integrative geological and geophysical view of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) is an exceptional geologic environment for recording evidence of land level changes, tsunamis, and ground motion that reveals at least 19 great megathrust earthquakes over the past 10 kyr. Such earthquakes are among the most impactful natural hazards on Earth, transcend national boundaries, and can have global impact. Reducing the societal impacts of future events in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and coastal British Columbia, Canada requires improved scientific understanding of megathrust earthquake rupture, recurrence, and corresponding hazards. Despite substantial knowledge gained from decades of research, large uncertainties remain about the characteristics and frequencies of past CSZ earthquakes. In this review, we summarize geological, geophysical, and instrumental evidence relevant to understanding megathrust earthquakes along the CSZ and associated uncertainties. We discuss how the evidence constrains various models of great megathrust earthquake recurrence in Cascadia and identify potential paths forward for the earthquake science community.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Crustal structure and quaternary acceleration of deformation rates in central Washington revealed by stream profile inversion, potential field geophysics, and structural geology of the Yakima folds

Post‐Miocene tectonic uplift along fault‐cored anticlines within central Washington produced the Yakima Fold Province, a region of active NNE‐SSW shortening in the Cascadian backarc. The relative timing and rate of deformation along individual structures is coarsely defined yet imperative for seismic hazard assessment. In this work, we use geomorphic and geophysical mapping, stream profile inversion, and balanced cross‐section methods to constrain fault geometries and slip rates in the Yakima Canyon region. We extract stream profiles from LiDAR data and analytically solve for the rate of relative rock uplift along several active fault‐cored anticlines. To constrain the fault geometries at depth and the long‐term magnitude of deformation, we constructed two line‐balanced cross sections across the folds with forward‐modeled magnetic and gravity anomaly data. Our stream profile results indicate an increase of incision rates in the Pleistocene, and we infer the increase is tectonically controlled. We estimate modern slip rates between 0.4 and 0.6 mm/year accommodated on reverse faults that core the Manastash Ridge, Umtanum Ridge, and Selah Butte anticlines and establish that these faults reactivate and invert older normal faults in basement rocks. Finally, we calculate the time required to accumulate sufficient strain energy for a large magnitude earthquake (M ≥ 7) along individual structures in the Yakima Fold Province. Results show that the Yakima folds likely accommodate large magnitude earthquakes and that it takes several hundred to several thousand years to accumulate sufficient strain energy for an M ≥ 7 earthquake.

Washington↗
USGS2017

Miocene−Pleistocene deformation of the Saddle Mountains: Implications for seismic hazard in central Washington, USA

The Yakima fold province, located in the backarc of the Cascadia subduction zone, is a region of active strain accumulation and deformation distributed across a series of fault-cored folds. The geodetic network in central Washington has been used to interpret large-scale N-S shortening and westward-increasing strain; however, geodetic data are unable to resolve shortening rates across individual structures in this low-strain-rate environment. Resolving fault geometries, slip rates, and timing of faulting in the Yakima fold province is critically important to seismic hazard assessment for nearby infrastructure and population centers. The Saddle Mountains anticline is one of the most prominent Yakima folds. It is unique within the Yakima fold province in that the syntectonic strata of the Ringold Formation are preserved and provide a record of deformation and drainage reorganization. Here, we present new stratigraphic columns, U-Pb zircon tephra ages, U-series caliche ages, and geophysical modeling that constrain two line-balanced and retrodeformed cross sections. These new constraints indicate that the Saddle Mountains anticline has accommodated 1.0−1.3 km of N-S shortening since 10 Ma, that shortening increases westward along the anticline, and that the average slip rate has increased 6-fold since 6.8 Ma. Provenance analysis suggests that the source terrane for the Ringold Formation was similar to that of the modern Snake River Plain. Using new slip rates and structural constraints, we calculate the strain accumulation time, interpretable as a recurrence interval, for earthquakes on the Saddle Mountains fault and find that large-magnitude earthquakes could rupture along the Saddle Mountains fault every 2−11 k.y.

Washington↗
USGS2016

Building a subduction zone observatory

Subduction zones contain many of Earth&rsquo;s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature&rsquo;s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗
USGS2014

The search for geologic evidence of distant-source tsunamis using new field data in California

A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numerical tsunami modeling results identify the eastern Aleutian Islands subduction zone as the “worstcase” distant-source region, with the potential for causing tsunami runups of 7–10 m in northern and central California and 3–4 m in southern California. These model results, along with a review of historical topographic maps and past geotechnical evaluations, guided site selection for tsunami deposit surveys. A reconnaissance of 20 coastal marshlands was performed through site visits and coring of shallow surface sediments to determine if evidence for past tsunamis existed. Although conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits was not found at most of the sites evaluated, geologic evidence consistent with tsunami inundation was found at two locations: Three marshes in the Crescent City area and Pillar Point marsh near Half Moon Bay. Potential tsunami deposits were also evaluated at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in Santa Barbara County. In Crescent City, deposits were ascribed to tsunamis on the basis of stratigraphic architecture, particle size, and microfossil content, and they were further assigned to the 1964 Alaska and 1700 Cascadia tsunamis on the basis of dating by cesium-137 and radiocarbon methods, respectively. The 1946 tsunami sand deposit was clearly identified throughout Pillar Point marsh, and one to two other similar but highly discontinuous sand layers were present within 0.5 m of the surface. A tsunami-origin interpretation for sand layers at Carpinteria is merely consistent with graded bedding and unsupported by diatom or foraminiferal assemblages. Additional studies, including age dating, grain-size, and microfossil analyses are underway for the deposits at Crescent City, Pillar Point marsh, and Carpinteria, which may help further identify if other tsunami deposits exist at those sites. The absence of evidence for tsunamis at other sites examined should not preclude further work beyond the reconnaissance-level investigations at those locations.

California↗
USGS2008

Earthquakes generated from bedding plane-parallel reverse faults above an active wedge thrust, Seattle fault zone

A key question in earthquake hazard analysis is whether individual faults within fault zones represent independent seismic sources. For the Seattle fault zone, an upper plate structure within the Cascadia convergent margin, evaluating seismic hazard requires understanding how north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults, which generate late Holocene fault scarps, interact with the north-vergent master-ramp thrust and overlying backthrust of the fault zone. A regional uplift at A.D. 900–930 involved an earthquake that nucleated at depth and included slip on both the master-ramp thrust and the back-thrust. This earthquake also included slip on some of the <6-km-deep north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults. At locales where the north-side-up reverse faults intersect the Puget Sound coast, an earthquake a few centuries earlier than the A.D. 900–930 regional uplift only uplifted areas within hundreds of meters north of the reverse faults. We infer that the bedding-plane reverse faults are seismogenic because shore platforms near the reverse faults have been abruptly uplifted during earthquakes when other shorelines in the Seattle fault zone were unaffected. Faults of the Seattle fault zone therefore can both produce regional uplift earthquakes, with or without surface displacement on the reverse faults, and produce earthquakes that rupture the bedding-plane reverse faults causing fault scarps and uplift localized to hundreds of meters north of these faults. This latter type of earthquake has occurred at least twice and perhaps three times in the late Holocene, and all these earthquakes preceded the regional coseismic uplift of A.D. 900–930. To account for the paleoseismic observations, we propose that the Seattle fault zone is a wedge thrust, with the leading edge being a fault-bend, wedge thrust fold. The active axial surface of the wedge thrust fold is pinned at the tip of the wedge, and a steeply north-dipping sequence of Tertiary sediment forms the south limb of the wedge thrust fold. Some of these steeply north-dipping, bedding-plane surfaces are seismogenic reverse faults that produce scarps. Earthquakes on the wedge thrust produce the regional coseismic uplift events, and earthquakes within the fault-bend fold cause the local uplift earthquakes. Thus, bedding-plane faults can rupture during earthquakes when the wedge thrust does not rupture but instead continues to accumulate seismic energy.

Washington↗