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H.F. Lins

Publications and source records attributed to H.F. Lins.

13 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2007

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

ABSTRACT: Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydro-logical events.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2005

Nature's style: Naturally trendy

Hydroclimatological time series often exhibit trends. While trend magnitude can be determined with little ambiguity, the corresponding statistical significance, sometimes cited to bolster scientific and political argument, is less certain because significance depends critically on the null hypothesis which in turn reflects subjective notions about what one expects to see. We consider statistical trend tests of hydroclimatological data in the presence of long-term persistence (LTP). Monte Carlo experiments employing FARIMA models indicate that trend tests which fail to consider LTP greatly overstate the statistical significance of observed trends when LTP is present. A new test is presented that avoids this problem. From a practical standpoint, however, it may be preferable to acknowledge that the concept of statistical significance is meaningless when discussing poorly understood systems.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1999

Streamflow trends in the United States

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0 th to the 100 th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q 0 ) to median (Q 50 ) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q 100 ) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q 100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1997

Scale and modeling issues in water resources planning

Resource planners and managers interested in utilizing climate model output as part of their operational activities immediately confront the dilemma of scale discordance. Their functional responsibilities cover relatively small geographical areas and necessarily require data of relatively high spatial resolution. Climate models cover a large geographical, i.e. global, domain and produce data at comparatively low spatial resolution. Although the scale differences between model output and planning input are large, several techniques have been developed for disaggregating climate model output to a scale appropriate for use in water resource planning and management applications. With techniques in hand to reduce the limitations imposed by scale discordance, water resource professionals must now confront a more fundamental constraint on the use of climate models-the inability to produce accurate representations and forecasts of regional climate. Given the current capabilities of climate models, and the likelihood that the uncertainty associated with long-term climate model forecasts will remain high for some years to come, the water resources planning community may find it impractical to utilize such forecasts operationally.

Climatic Change↗
USGS1987

Trend analysis of monthly sulfur dioxide emissions in the conterminous United States, 1975-1984

Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease though the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. In addition, five regions of coherent sulfur dioxide emissions behavior are defined on the basis of seasonal occurrence of maximum and minimum emission loadings. A winter-summer, latitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions maxima, whereas an equinox-summer, longitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions minima.Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease through the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. Additional study results are discussed.

Atmospheric Environment↗
USGS1987

Patterns of acid deposition variability in the Eastern United States, 1981-84

An increase in pH and a decrease in sulfate concentration of precipitation were recorded at National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) monitoring sites in the Eastern United States between 1981 and 1984. The decline in acidity, however, was not spatially or temporally uniform. The range in acidity and sulfate concentrations decreased during the four-yr period. Variations in the area of constant pH surfaces take the general form of area reductions in both the lower (pH 4.01-4.40) and upper (pH 4.91-5.40) range of values with concomitant area increases in the middle (pH 4.41-4.90) range. The pattern for sulfate is simpler, with area increases occurring in the lower (1.0-1.9 mg/L) range, decreases in the upper (2.5-4.4 mg/L) range, with approximate stability in the middle (2.0-2.4 mg/L) range of values. (Author 's abstract)

Open-File Report↗
USGS1986

Recent patterns of sulfate variability in pristine streams

Systematic modes of spatial and temporal variation in a 13-y record of stream sulfate from a nationwide network of headwater sampling stations are defined using principal components. Based on the undisturbed nature of the sampling network, it is suggested that these modes of stream sulfate variability are analogues for variations in acid deposition. Three statistically significant components, accounting for approximately 50% of the total stream sulfate variance, are identified. Analysis of component loadings and scores indicates that a major transition occurred in the early 1970s when stream sulfate concentrations in the northeast changed from persistently above mean levels to persistently below. At the same time concentrations of sulfate in Gulf and Southeast Atlantic coast streams shifted from persistently below to persistently above mean concentrations. Significantly, these changes occurred contemporaneously with regional trends in sulfate emissions which can generally be characterized as decreasing in the northeast and increasing in the southeast.Systematic modes of spatial and temporal variation in a 13-y record of stream sulfate from a nationwide network of headwater sampling stations are defined using principal components. Based on the undisturbed nature of the sampling network, it is suggested that these modes of stream sulfate variability are analogues for variations in acid deposition. Three statistically significant components, accounting for approximately 50% of the total stream sulfate variance, are identified. Analysis of component loadings and scores indicates that a major transition occurred in the early 1970s when stream sulfate concentrations in the northeast changed from persistently above mean levels to persistently below. At the same time concentrations of sulfate in Gulf and Southeast Atlantic coast streams shifted from persistently below to persistently above mean concentrations.

Atmospheric Environment - Part A General Topics↗
USGS1985

Streamflow variability in the United States: 1931-1978.

Systematic modes of spatial and temporal variation in a 48-year record of streamflow are defined using principal components. The components were calculated from a matrix of annual streamflow departures for 106 grid cells covering the United States in the years 1931-78. Five statistically significant components are found to account for more than 56% of the total variance. A varimax orthogonal rotation of the original components describes regional anomaly cores located in the middle Mississippi Valley, Pacific Northwest, Far West, Northeast, and northern Great Plains. -from Author

Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology↗