Geology topics

Gretchen J.A. Hansen

Publications and source records attributed to Gretchen J.A. Hansen.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Mixed support for the temperature-size rule in wild freshwater fishes

The temperature-size rule states that species living in warmer temperatures will grow faster and mature earlier at smaller sizes. While several studies have documented patterns in average body size consistent with the temperature-size rule in wild populations, a comprehensive test is lacking. Here, we use age and length data of 1.4 million fish across 7 species from 2704 lakes to quantify temperature-related variation in growth across ontogeny. Our results show that no species fully conforms to the temperature-size rule; despite patterns of juvenile growth rate and age at maturity typically aligning with the temperature-size rule, these changes seldom translate to reduced size at maturity or maximum size. We also found evidence that faster life histories in warmer environments are associated with reduced lifespans. A deeper understanding of how temperature shapes growth in natural systems is needed to accurately predict the effects of global warming on wildlife.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,Michigan, Minnesota, South↗

USGS2025

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation induces escape hatching of Cisco (Coregonus artedi) embryos

Cisco (Otoonapii in Ojibwe; Coregonus artedi Lesueur, 1818), is a widely distributed stenothermic freshwater fish whose embryos typically incubate under ice and in the dark. We used Cisco as a model organism for testing the potential of UV-induced escape hatching behaviour. Owing to reduced ice cover and increased water transparency in north temperate lakes, these experiments provide insights into the resilience of coregonine embryos if exposed to ultraviolet radiation (UV-B; 280–320 nm). Eyed Cisco embryos were exposed to artificially sourced UV-B through a series of experiments that measured the hatching rate and fitness (heart rate and pigmentation pattern) 2 days after hatching and under cold [6.6°C] and warm [8.6°C] conditions. These experiments supported an extension of the escape hatching behaviour hypothesis, whereby UV-B exposure induced earlier (ca 30 days) and more punctuated hatching of Cisco embryos, independent of an increase in water temperature. UV-B exposure produced more larvae with irregular pigmentation patterns and reduced heart rates (by about 20%) – both of which could be indicative of reduced fitness. UV-induced escape hatching adusts the fundamental framework in which we characterise fish embryo resilience to increased UV-B exposure and the potential consequences of reduced ice cover. Earlier hatching from UV-B exposure could increase the recruitment bottleneck of these fish by reducing survivorship of the post-hatched larvae.

Minnesota↗

USGS2025

Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes

Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long-term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1,213 lakes over 74 years (1949-2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ice cover duration declined at a rate of 2 days per decade (14 days total) and became more variable. Despite variation in phenology, just 10-20% of lakes differed from statewide phenological trends. Accounting for synchronous annual variation and estimating trends over long time periods (e.g., >40 years) were critical for obtaining robust estimates of ice loss. The constant rates estimated here were consistent with recent global estimates (1.7-1.9 days per decade) and suggest that, even if present, accelerating rates of ice loss would be difficult to detect in the midst of shorter-term periods of warming and increasing variability.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold-adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

Minnesota↗

USGS2024

Increased mercury concentrations in walleye and yellow perch in lakes invaded by zebra mussels

Zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ) are invasive species that alter ecosystems and food webs with the potential to affect aquatic mercury cycling and bioaccumulation in fishes, although the effect of zebra mussels on fish tissue mercury has not been tested in inland lakes. We assessed differences in fish tissue mercury concentrations and food webs in Minnesota lakes with and without zebra mussels while controlling for other lake and watershed characteristics. Mercury concentrations in adult walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and yellow perch ( Perca flavescens ) were 72 % and 157 % higher, respectively, in lakes containing zebra mussels compared to uninvaded lakes. Mercury in young of year (age-0) fish was also elevated, with mercury concentrations 97 % and 82 % higher in age-0 walleye and yellow perch, respectively, in zebra mussel lakes. Walleye mercury concentrations exceeded 0.22 ppm — a threshold triggering more restrictive human consumption advisories for sensitive populations — at a 23 % smaller size, and average-sized walleye (420 mm) exceeded this threshold at a rate of 77 % in invaded lakes, compared to 35 % in uninvaded lakes. Walleye and yellow perch relied more on littoral resources in lakes with zebra mussels but did not feed at meaningfully higher trophic levels. Increased fish tissue mercury in lakes invaded by zebra mussels have consequential implications for fisheries and human health.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

The incredible HALK: borrowing data for age assignment

Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III Ecoregion, and finally a species-wide data ALK using all available data with our study for a species. Median deviation in mean length of age-3 fish was within 1 cm for the most specific HALK levels, and median deviation in total annual mortality was close to 0 for most species when borrowing occurred within HUC10 and HUC8 watersheds. Percent error in growth curves increased with data borrowing, but plateaued—or even decreased—for some species when data borrowing expanded across spatial levels. We present the HALK as a method for gaining age information about a fishery when age data are unavailable.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Sout↗

USGS2023

Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models

Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying sampling conditions due to the environment and time of sampling when estimating relative abundance. The novelty of our JSDM is that we explicitly model sampling effort as the product of known quantities based on time and gear type and an unknown functional relationship to capture seasonal variation in species life history. We use the model to study relative abundance of six freshwater fish species across the state of Minnesota, USA. Our model enables estimates of relative abundance to be compared both within and across species and lakes, and captures the inconsistent sampling present in the data. We discuss how gear type, water temperature and day of the year impact catchability for each species at the lake level and throughout a year. We compare our estimates of relative abundance to those obtained from a model that assumes constant catchability to highlight important differences within and across lakes and species. Synthesis and applications : Our method illustrates that assumptions relating indices of abundance to observed catch data can greatly impact model inferences derived from JSDMs. Specifically, not accounting for varying sampling conditions can bias inference of relative abundance, restricting our ability to detect responses to management interventions and environmental change. While our focus is on freshwater fisheries, this model architecture can be adopted to other systems where catchability may vary as a function of space, time and species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

Minnesota↗

USGS2023

Connecting habitat to species abundance: The role of light and temperature on the abundance of walleye in lakes

Walleye ( Sander vitreus) are an ecologically important species managed for recreational, tribal, and commercial harvest. Walleye prefer cool water and low light conditions, and therefore changing water temperature and clarity potentially impacts walleye habitat and populations across the landscape. Using survey data collected from 1993 to 2018 from 312 lakes in Minnesota, we evaluated the relationship between thermal-optical habitat and the relative abundance of small (0–300 mm), medium (300–450 mm), and large (450 + mm) walleye. Thermal-optical habitat was positively correlated with the relative abundance of small and medium walleye but not large walleye. Walleye were more abundant in larger, naturally reproducing lakes opposed to smaller, stocked lakes. Thermal-optical habitat changed in 59% of lakes since 1980 (26% increasing and 33% decreasing) and appears to be driven primarily by changes in water clarity and thus optical habitat area. Our study provides important insights into local and regional drivers that influence walleye populations that can be used to assist fisheries managers in setting population goals and managing harvest.

Minnesota↗

USGS2022

It’s complicated and it depends: A review of the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch populations in North America

Walleye Sander vitreus and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1,232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye ( n = 613) and Yellow Perch ( n = 619). Climate was the most frequently studied driver ( n = 572), and growth or condition was the most frequently studied response ( n = 297). The most commonly reported relationship was “no effect” (42% of analyses), usually because multiple variables were tested and only a few were found to be significant. Overall responses varied among studies for most species-response–driver combinations. For example, the influence of invasive species on growth of both Walleye and Yellow Perch was approximately equally likely to be positive, negative, or have no effect. Even when results were variable, important patterns emerged; for example, growth responses of both species to temperature were variable, but very few negative responses were observed. A few relationships were relatively consistent across studies. Invasive species were negatively associated with Walleye recruitment and abundance, and higher water clarity was negatively associated with Walleye abundance, biomass, and production. Some variability in responses may be due to differences in methodology or the range of variables studied; others represent true context dependence, where the effect of a driver depends on the influence of other variables. Using common metrics of impact, publishing negative results, and robust analytical approaches could facilitate comparisons among systems and provide a more comprehensive understanding of the responses of Walleye and Yellow Perch to ecosystem change.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2020

Improved understanding and prediction of freshwater fish communities through the use of joint species distribution models

Two primary goals in fisheries research are to ( i ) understand how habitat and environmental conditions influence the distribution of fishes across the landscape and ( ii ) make predictions about how fish communities will respond to environmental and anthropogenic change. In inland, freshwater ecosystems, quantitative approaches traditionally used to accomplish these goals largely ignore the effects of species interactions (competition, predation, mutualism) on shaping community structure, potentially leading to erroneous conclusions regarding habitat associations and unrealistic predictions about species distributions. Using two contrasting case studies, we highlight how joint species distribution models (JSDMs) can address the aforementioned deficiencies by simultaneously quantifying the effects of abiotic habitat variables and species dependencies. In particular, we show that conditional predictions of species occurrence from JSDMs can better predict species presence or absence compared with predictions that ignore species dependencies. JSDMs also allow for the estimation of site-specific probabilities of species co-occurrence, which can be informative for generating hypotheses about species interactions. JSDMs provide a flexible framework that can be used to address a variety of questions in fisheries science and management.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗