Geology topics

Gavin P. Hayes

Publications and source records attributed to Gavin P. Hayes.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2017

2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M 6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M 8.0 in March 1985. The history of large earthquakes in this region shows significant variation in rupture size and extent, typically highlighted by a juxtaposition of large ruptures interspersed with smaller magnitude sequences. We show that the 2017 sequence ruptured an area between the two main slip patches during the 1985 earthquake, rerupturing a patch that had previously slipped during the October 1973 M 6.5 earthquake sequence. A significant gap in historic ruptures exists directly to the south of the 2017 sequence, with large enough moment deficit to host a great-sized earthquake in the near future, if it is locked.

Valparaiso↗

USGS2017

Integrated geophysical characteristics of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake

On 16 September 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured the subduction zone offshore of Illapel, Chile, generating an aftershock sequence with 14 Mw 6.0–7.0 events. A double source W phase moment tensor inversion consists of a Mw 7.2 subevent and the main Mw 8.2 phase. We determine two slip models for the mainshock, one using teleseismic broadband waveforms and the other using static GPS and InSAR surface displacements, which indicate high slip north of the epicenter and west-northwest of the epicenter near the oceanic trench. These models and slip distributions published in other studies suggest spatial slip uncertainties of ~25 km and have peak slip values that vary by a factor of 2. We relocate aftershock hypocenters using a Bayesian multiple-event relocation algorithm, revealing a cluster of aftershocks under the Chilean coast associated with deep (20–45 km depth) mainshock slip. Less vigorous aftershock activity also occurred near the trench and along strike of the main aftershock region. Most aftershocks are thrust-faulting events, except for normal-faulting events near the trench. Coulomb failure stress change amplitudes and signs are uncertain for aftershocks collocated with deeper mainshock slip; other aftershocks are more clearly associated with loading from the mainshock. These observations reveal a frictionally heterogeneous interface that ruptured in patches at seismogenic depths (associated with many aftershocks) and with homogeneous slip (and few aftershocks) up to the trench. This event likely triggered seismicity separate from the main slip region, including along-strike events on the megathrust and intraplate extensional events.

Illapel↗

USGS2017

Alternative rupture-scaling relationships for subduction interface and other offshore environments

Alternative fault-rupture-scaling relationships are developed for Mw 7.1– 9.5 subduction interface earthquakes using a new database of consistently derived finitefault rupture models from teleseismic inversion. Scaling relationships are derived for rupture area, rupture length, rupture width, maximum slip, and average slip. These relationships apply width saturation for large-magnitude interface earthquakes (approximately Mw >8:6) for which the physical characteristics of subduction zones limit the depth extent of seismogenic rupture, and consequently, the down-dip limit of strong ground motion generation. On average, the down-dip rupture width for interface earthquakes saturates near 200 km (196 km on average). Accordingly, the reinterpretation of rupture-area scaling for subduction interface earthquakes through the use of a bilinear scaling model suggests that rupture asperity area is less well correlated with magnitude for earthquakes Mw >8:6. Consequently, the size of great-magnitude earthquakes appears to be more strongly controlled by the average slip across asperities. The sensitivity of the interface scaling relationships is evaluated against geographic region (or subduction zone) and average dip along the rupture interface to assess the need for correction factors. Although regional perturbations in fault-rupture scaling could be identified, statistical significance analyses suggest there is little rationale for implementing regional correction factors based on the limited number of interface rupture models available for each region. Fault-rupture-scaling relationships are also developed for intraslab (within the subducting slab), extensional outer-rise and offshore strike-slip environments. For these environments, the rupture width and area scaling properties yield smaller dimensions than interface ruptures for the corresponding magnitude. However, average and maximum slip metrics yield larger values than interface events. These observations reflect both the narrower fault widths and higher stress drops in these faulting environments. Although expressing significantly different rupture-scaling properties from earthquakes in subduction environments, the characteristics of offshore strike-slip earthquake ruptures compare similarly to commonly used rupture-scaling relationships for onshore strike-slip earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2017

The 2008 Wells, Nevada earthquake sequence: Source constraints using calibrated multiple event relocation and InSAR

The 2008 Wells, NV earthquake represents the largest domestic event in the conterminous U.S. outside of California since the October 1983 Borah Peak earthquake in southern Idaho. We present an improved catalog, magnitude complete to 1.6, of the foreshock-aftershock sequence, supplementing the current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalog with 1,928 well-located events. In order to create this catalog, both subspace and kurtosis detectors are used to obtain an initial set of earthquakes and associated locations. The latter are then calibrated through the implementation of the hypocentroidal decomposition method and relocated using the BayesLoc relocation technique. We additionally perform a finite fault slip analysis of the mainshock using InSAR observations. By combining the relocated sequence with the finite fault analysis, we show that the aftershocks occur primarily updip and along the southwestern edge of the zone of maximum slip. The aftershock locations illuminate areas of post-mainshock strain increase; aftershock depths, ranging from 5 to 16 km, are consistent with InSAR imaging, which shows that the Wells earthquake was a buried source with no observable near-surface offset.

Nevada↗

USGS2017

Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts

The 3 September 2016, M w 5.8 Pawnee earthquake was the largest recorded earthquake in the state of Oklahoma. Seismic and geodetic observations of the Pawnee sequence, including precise hypocenter locations and moment tensor modeling, shows that the Pawnee earthquake occurred on a previously unknown left-lateral strike-slip basement fault that intersects the mapped right-lateral Labette fault zone. The Pawnee earthquake is part of an unprecedented increase in the earthquake rate in Oklahoma that is largely considered the result of the deep injection of waste fluids from oil and gas production. If this is, indeed, the case for the M 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, then this would be the largest event to have been induced by fluid injection. Since 2015, Oklahoma has undergone wide-scale mitigation efforts primarily aimed at reducing injection volumes. Thus far in 2016, the rate of M 3 and greater earthquakes has decreased as compared to 2015, while the cumulative moment—or energy released from earthquakes—has increased. This highlights the difficulty in earthquake hazard mitigation efforts given the poorly understood long-term diffusive effects of wastewater injection and their connection to seismicity.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2017

Tectonic summaries of magnitude 7 and greater earthquakes from 2000 to 2015

This paper describes the tectonic summaries for all magnitude 7 and larger earthquakes in the period 2000–2015, as produced by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center during their routine response operations to global earthquakes. The goal of such summaries is to provide important event-specific information to the public rapidly and concisely, such that recent earthquakes can be understood within a global and regional seismotectonic framework. We compile these summaries here to provide a long-term archive for this information, and so that the variability in tectonic setting and earthquake history from region to region, and sometimes within a given region, can be more clearly understood.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2017

The finite, kinematic rupture properties of great-sized earthquakes since 1990

Here, I present a database of >160 finite fault models for all earthquakes of M 7.5 and above since 1990, created using a consistent modeling approach. The use of a common approach facilitates easier comparisons between models, and reduces uncertainties that arise when comparing models generated by different authors, data sets and modeling techniques. I use this database to verify published scaling relationships, and for the first time show a clear and intriguing relationship between maximum potency (the product of slip and area) and average potency for a given earthquake. This relationship implies that earthquakes do not reach the potential size given by the tectonic load of a fault (sometimes called “moment deficit,” calculated via a plate rate over time since the last earthquake, multiplied by geodetic fault coupling). Instead, average potency (or slip) scales with but is less than maximum potency (dictated by tectonic loading). Importantly, this relationship facilitates a more accurate assessment of maximum earthquake size for a given fault segment, and thus has implications for long-term hazard assessments. The relationship also suggests earthquake cycles may not completely reset after a large earthquake, and thus repeat rates of such events may appear shorter than is expected from tectonic loading. This in turn may help explain the phenomenon of “earthquake super-cycles” observed in some global subduction zones.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2016

A study of the 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel earthquake and tsunami: Numerical and analytical approaches

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs (NEOWAVE) is employed to model the tsunami evolution through the Pacific Ocean. Because only a short time is available for emergency response, and since the earthquake and tsunami sources are close to the coast, gaining a rapid understanding of the near-field run-up behavior is highly relevant to Chile. Therefore, an analytical solution of the 2 ? 1 D shallow water wave equations is considered. With this solution, we show that we can quickly estimate the run-up distribution along the coastline, to first order. After the earthquake and tsunami, field observations were measured in the surrounded coastal region, where the tsunami resulted in significant run-up. First, we compare the analytical and numerical solutions to test the accuracy of the analytical approach and the field observations, implying the analytic approach can accurately model tsunami run-up after an earthquake, without sacrificing the time necessary for a full numerical inversion. Then, we compare both with field run-up measurements. We observe the consistency between the two approaches. To complete the analysis, a tsunami source inversion is performed using run-up field measurements only. These inversion results are compared with seismic models, and are shown to capture the broad-scale details of those models, without the necessity of the detailed data sets they invert.

Illapel↗

USGS2016

RMT focal plane sensitivity to seismic network geometry and faulting style

Modern tectonic studies often use regional moment tensors (RMTs) to interpret the seismotectonic framework of an earthquake or earthquake sequence; however, despite extensive use, little existing work addresses RMT parameter uncertainty. Here, we quantify how network geometry and faulting style affect RMT sensitivity. We examine how data-model fits change with fault plane geometry (strike and dip) for varying station configurations. We calculate the relative data fit for incrementally varying geometries about a best-fitting solution, applying our workflow to real and synthetic seismograms for both real and hypothetical station distributions and earthquakes. Initially, we conduct purely observational tests, computing RMTs from synthetic seismograms for hypothetical earthquakes and a series of well-behaved network geometries. We then incorporate real data and station distributions from the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD), which recorded aftershocks of the 2010 M W 8.8 Maule earthquake, and a set of regional stations capturing the ongoing earthquake sequence in Oklahoma and southern Kansas. We consider RMTs computed under three scenarios: (1) real seismic records selected for high data quality; (2) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for the observed source-station pairings and (3) synthetic seismic records with noise computed for all possible station-source pairings. To assess RMT sensitivity for each test, we observe the ‘fit falloff’, which portrays how relative fit changes when strike or dip varies incrementally; we then derive the ranges of acceptable strikes and dips by identifying the span of solutions with relative fits larger than 90 per cent of the best fit. For the azimuthally incomplete IMAD network, Scenario 3 best constrains fault geometry, with average ranges of 45° and 31° for strike and dip, respectively. In Oklahoma, Scenario 3 best constrains fault dip with an average range of 46°; however, strike is best constrained by Scenario 1, with a range of 26°. We draw two main conclusions from this study. (1) Station distribution impacts our ability to constrain RMTs using waveform time-series; however, in some tectonic settings, faulting style also plays a significant role and (2) increasing station density and data quantity (both the number of stations and the number of individual channels) does not necessarily improve RMT constraint. These results may be useful when organizing future seismic deployments (e.g. by concentrating stations in alignment with anticipated nodal planes), and in computing RMTs, either by guiding a more rigorous data selection process for input data or informing variable weighting among the selected data (e.g. by eliminating the transverse component when strike-slip mechanisms are expected).

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2016

Introduction to the special issue on the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha(Nepal) earthquake

On April 25, 2015, a moment magnitude (M w ) 7.8 earthquake struck central Nepal, breaking a section of the broader Himalayan Front that had been largely quiescent in moderate-to-large earthquakes for much of the modern seismological era. Ground shaking associated with the event resulted in a broad distribution of triggered avalanches and landslides. The ensuing aftershock sequence was punctuated by a Mw 7.3 event 17 days after the mainshock. The combined effects of these earthquakes and secondary hazards have led to the Gorkha earthquake becoming the worst natural disaster in Nepal since the 1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake, causing close to 9000 deaths and severely injuring over 21,000 people ( OCHA, 2015 ). Despite the devastating effects of this earthquake, the convergent margin that hosted it is thought to be capable of much larger ruptures—perhaps as large as Mw 9 ( Feldl and Bilham, 2006 ). The 2015 Gorkha rupture lies just to the west of the 1934 M 8.0–8.4 event ( Sapkota et al., 2013; Bollinger et al., 2014 ). Unlike the 1934 event, which has been documented in paleoseismic trenches along the Himalayan Front (e.g., Sapkota et al., 2013 ), and other large ruptures along the arc (e.g., Lavé et al., 2005; Kumar et al., 2006 ), the 2015 event did not rupture to the surface (e.g., Galetzka et al., 2015 ). As a result, some researchers have suggested that the Gorkha earthquake was not as large, or as damaging, as might have been expected based on our (albeit limited) understanding of historic earthquakes, seismic hazard and risk (e.g., Bilham, 2015; Hough, 2015 ). Important questions surrounding the earthquake and its regional setting thus arise. What were the detailed characteristics of the rupture and the aftershock sequence, and what is the relationship between mainshock slip and subsequent seismicity? Why did this event not rupture to the surface? Was damage less than should have been expected; and if so, why? What role did path effects, such as basin amplification, play? Do details of the earthquake sequence allow us to better understand regional seismotectonics, and in turn, future risk? Discussion of these and other issues has been ongoing since the earthquake; a large body of literature already exists that characterizes details of the earthquake sequence and its effects. This special issue attempts to gather a wide variety of detailed studies that wholly characterize this event to a degree that has not yet been possible. The studies herein provide an improved understanding of the Gorkha earthquake, its impact on the region, and its place in the broader seismotectonic history of the Himalayan Front.

Gorkha↗

USGS2015

Rapid characterization of the 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2015

Reactivated faulting near Cushing, Oklahoma: Increased potential for a triggered earthquake in an area of United States strategic infrastructure

In October 2014 two moderate-sized earthquakes ( Mw 4.0 and 4.3) struck south of Cushing, Oklahoma, below the largest crude oil storage facility in the world. Combined analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes and regional moment tensor focal mechanisms indicate reactivation of a subsurface unnamed and unmapped left-lateral strike-slip fault. Coulomb failure stress change calculations using the relocated seismicity and slip distribution determined from regional moment tensors, allow for the possibility that the Wilzetta-Whitetail fault zone south of Cushing, Oklahoma, could produce a large, damaging earthquake comparable to the 2011 Prague event. Resultant very strong shaking levels (MMI VII) in the epicentral region present the possibility of this potential earthquake causing moderate to heavy damage to national strategic infrastructure and local communities.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2015

A rapid estimation of near field tsunami run-up

Many efforts have been made to quickly estimate the maximum run-up height of tsunamis associated with large earthquakes. This is a difficult task, because of the time it takes to construct a tsunami model using real time data from the source. It is possible to construct a database of potential seismic sources and their corresponding tsunami a priori.However, such models are generally based on uniform slip distributions and thus oversimplify the knowledge of the earthquake source. Here, we show how to predict tsunami run-up from any seismic source model using an analytic solution, that was specifically designed for subduction zones with a well defined geometry, i.e., Chile, Japan, Nicaragua, Alaska. The main idea of this work is to provide a tool for emergency response, trading off accuracy for speed. The solutions we present for large earthquakes appear promising. Here, run-up models are computed for: The 1992 Mw 7.7 Nicaragua Earthquake, the 2001 Mw 8.4 Perú Earthquake, the 2003Mw 8.3 Hokkaido Earthquake, the 2007 Mw 8.1 Perú Earthquake, the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Earthquake, the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and the recent 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique Earthquake. The maximum run-up estimations are consistent with measurements made inland after each event, with a peak of 9 m for Nicaragua, 8 m for Perú (2001), 32 m for Maule, 41 m for Tohoku, and 4.1 m for Iquique. Considering recent advances made in the analysis of real time GPS data and the ability to rapidly resolve the finiteness of a large earthquake close to existing GPS networks, it will be possible in the near future to perform these calculations within the first minutes after the occurrence of similar events. Thus, such calculations will provide faster run-up information than is available from existing uniform-slip seismic source databases or past events of pre-modeled seismic sources.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2015

Seismicity of the Earth 1900‒2013 Mediterranean Sea and vicinity

The Mediterranean region is seismically active due to the convergence of the Africa Plate with the Eurasia plate. Present day Africa-Eurasia motion ranges from ~4 millimeters per year (mm/yr) in a northwest-southeast direction in the western Mediterranean to ~10 mm/yr (north-south) in the eastern Mediterranean. The Africa-Eurasia plate boundary is complex, and includes extensional and translational zones in addition to the dominant convergent regimes characterized by subduction and continental collision. This convergence began at approximately 50 million years ago and was associated with the closure of the Tethys Sea; the Mediterranean Sea is all that remains of the Tethys. The highest rates of seismicity in the Mediterranean region are found along the Hellenic subduction zone of southern Greece and the North Anatolian Fault Zone of northwestern Turkey, but significant rates of current seismicity and large historical earthquakes have occurred throughout the region spanning the Mediterranean Sea.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Earthquake forewarning in the Cascadia region

This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a “prediction” refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a “forecast” describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to <100 percent. When the time window is short (days to months) and the forecast is formulated for operational utility, this term may be “operational earthquake forecasting.” The subcommittee considered short-term forecasts only, herein referred to as “forewarnings,” but not their formulation into messages or their applications, which will be addressed by NEPEC in subsequent activities. The subcommittee considered “direct” and “indirect” forewarnings. Direct forewarnings originate with observed changes in geologic processes or conditions, which may include Increased rates of M >4 earthquakes on the plate interface north of the Mendocino region Changes in shallow seismicity patterns Increased rates of moderate earthquakes within the subducting plate Changes in the pattern of slow slip on the plate interface and other major faults Indirect forewarnings are based largely on model predictions of increased earthquake-occurrence probabilities. In this context, “models” refers to simulations of the processes believed to affect earthquake occurrence, as implemented in computer software, laboratory experiments, or some analog natural system. These indirect forewarnings likely will be more uncertain and difficult to interpret than direct forewarnings. This report also highlights the challenges of assessing the significance of forewarnings, which mostly will be extraordinary events with little or no historical precedent in the Cascadia region.

Cascadia region↗

USGS2015

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2015

Evidence for slip partitioning and bimodal slip behavior on a single fault: Surface slip characteristics of the 2013 Mw7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake

Deformation is commonly accommodated by strain partitioning on multiple, independent strike-slip and dip-slip faults in continental settings of oblique plate convergence. As a corollary, individual faults tend to exhibit one sense of slip – normal, reverse, or strike-slip – until whole-scale changes in boundary conditions reactivate preexisting faults in a new deformation regime. In this study, we show that a single continental fault may instead partition oblique strain by alternatively slipping in a strike-slip or a dip-slip sense during independent fault slip events. We use 0.5 m resolution optical imagery and sub-pixel correlation analysis of the 200+ km 200 + km "> 2013 M w 7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan earthquake to document co-seismic surface slip characteristics and Quaternary tectonic geomorphology along the causative Hoshab fault. We find that the 2013 earthquake, which involved a ∼6:1 strike-slip to dip-slip ratio, ruptured a structurally segmented fault. Quaternary geomorphic indicators of gross fault-zone morphology reveal both reverse-slip and strike-slip deformation in the rupture area of the 2013 earthquake that varies systematically along fault strike despite nearly pure strike-slip motion in 2013. Observations of along-strike variations in range front relief and geomorphic offsets suggest that the Hoshab fault accommodates a substantial reverse component of fault slip in the Quaternary, especially along the southern section of the 2013 rupture. We surmise that Quaternary bimodal slip along the Hoshab fault is promoted by a combination of the arcuate geometry of the Hoshab fault, the frictional weakness of the Makran accretionary prism, and time variable loading conditions from adjacent earthquakes and plate interactions.

Balochistan↗

USGS2015

Double point source W-phase inversion: Real-time implementation and automated model selection

Rapid and accurate characterization of an earthquake source is an extremely important and ever evolving field of research. Within this field, source inversion of the W-phase has recently been shown to be an effective technique, which can be efficiently implemented in real-time. An extension to the W-phase source inversion is presented in which two point sources are derived to better characterize complex earthquakes. A single source inversion followed by a double point source inversion with centroid locations fixed at the single source solution location can be efficiently run as part of earthquake monitoring network operational procedures. In order to determine the most appropriate solution, i.e., whether an earthquake is most appropriately described by a single source or a double source, an Akaike information criterion (AIC) test is performed. Analyses of all earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 and greater occurring since January 2000 were performed with extended analyses of the September 29, 2009 magnitude 8.1 Samoa earthquake and the April 19, 2014 magnitude 7.5 Papua New Guinea earthquake. The AIC test is shown to be able to accurately select the most appropriate model and the selected W-phase inversion is shown to yield reliable solutions that match published analyses of the same events.

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors↗