Geology topics

Fred D. Tillman

Publications and source records attributed to Fred D. Tillman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Water resources related to breccia pipe uranium mining in the Grand Canyon region

Introduction In the arid Grand Canyon region, water resources are limited to primarily the Colorado River and associated tributaries and to groundwater in the form of seeps and springs. Groundwater resources in the region supply water for human use and support diverse and rich ecosystems in the locations immediately surrounding the seeps and springs. Throughout the region, uranium resources occur and may interact with water resources in both mined and unmined uranium deposits. There is a need to better understand groundwater in the region and the effects from uranium mining in order to better manage the limited water resources in the area. This Fact Sheet summarizes results from U.S. Geological Survey studies that were conducted on this topic from 2012 to 2023.

Arizona↗

USGS2025

Specific conductance and water type as a proxy model for salinity and total dissolved solids measurements in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity levels in streams and tributaries of the Colorado River Basin have been a major concern for the United States and Mexico for over 50 years as the water is used by millions of people for domestic and industrial purposes. Recently, the United States Geological Survey expanded stream monitoring networks including the number of sites where continuous (15-min) specific conductance is measured in the Colorado River Headwaters and Gunnison River Basin located east of the Colorado-Utah state line (hereafter, UCOL). The purpose of this study is to apply a proxy method to determine salinity and total dissolved solids concentrations from specific conductance and major-ion water type that is applicable to monitoring sites in the UCOL. Within the UCOL, carbonate rich waters originate from high-elevation mountain regions in the eastern UCOL, calcium sulfate rich waters are mainly found in the western half of the UCOL including the Gunnison River Basin, and waters of variable composition are found along the lower reaches of the Colorado River and Eagle River. It was found that the chemistry of sites with variable composition changes seasonally and is impacted by both geogenic and anthropogenic processes, potentially including seasonal application of deicing road salt. The specific conductance – water type proxy can be used to reliably (±10 %) predict salinity and total dissolved solids at 66 monitoring sites in the UCOL. The method is rapid, can generate high-resolution measurements, is cost-effective, and greatly expands the utility of specific conductance measurements. Furthermore, the high-resolution estimates provide an accurate approach to determining long-term salinity loads as short-term events are accurately accounted for.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Hydrologic response of groundwater and streamflow to natural and anthropogenic drivers of change in headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) conditions

Study region: Headwaters of the upper Colorado River basin (UCOL), USA Study focus: Surface-water and groundwater numerical models incorporating water-use information were used to investigate changes in climate, water use, and simulated hydrologic responses of snow processes, evapotranspiration, groundwater, and streamflow during recent wet (1982–1999) and drought (2000–2022) periods in the headwater subregions of the upper Colorado River basin. New hydrologic insights for the region: Decreases in average streamflow between wet and drought periods ranged from 20 % in the Colorado River headwaters subregion to 23 % in the Gunnison River headwaters subregion. Like streamflow, average surface runoff was statistically less during the drought than the wet period, with decreases from 24–31 % in the headwaters. On a volume basis, runoff decreases were greater than streamflow decreases in both the Colorado River and Gunnison River headwaters. Although the amount of water-year groundwater discharge to streams remained nearly the same between the wet and drought periods, groundwater as a percentage of streamflow increased between the wet and drought periods, highlighting the importance of groundwater in sustaining streamflow during drought conditions. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that snowmelt-only models were better than the best precipitation and temperature models at explaining streamflow variability from all headwater subregions for both the wet and drought periods.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Salinity or sum of constituents— Methods comparison for computing dissolved solids concentrations in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is an important water source in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. High concentrations of dissolved solids in the river, sourced mainly from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL), cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damages annually to crops and infrastructure. Determinations of total dissolved solids (TDS) in river and tributary samples often rely on summed concentrations of constituents in solution reported as the sum of constituents (SOC), which includes the bicarbonate concentration converted to the equivalent carbonate mass that would be present as a residue after drying. Alternatively, salinity, similar to SOC but including the entire concentration of bicarbonate in solution, may be used as a measure of dissolved solids. Use of SOC results may under-represent actual dissolved-solids concentrations and loads in streams where bicarbonate is a substantial component of the dissolved solids in solution. The objective of this manuscript is to evaluate the differences between the SOC and salinity determinations of dissolved solids in UCOL streams and rivers. Water-quality data from the U.S. Geological Survey were used to compute salinity concentrations at UCOL stream sites for comparison with SOC determinations. Results from 8,001 samples at 418 UCOL sites indicate a median increase in dissolved solids of 20% (13% and 30%, 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively) using the salinity method compared with SOC results. Differences in dissolved solids attributable to the computational approach for handling bicarbonate at UCOL sites were significantly greater than laboratory variability based on results from 890 replicate analyses. Salinity may be a more useful indicator of water quality than SOC in systems with substantial proportions of bicarbonate in the composition of dissolved solids, including the Colorado River and UCOL sites.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

Database of surface water diversion sites and daily withdrawals for the upper Colorado River Basin, 1980–2022

The Colorado River drains about 8% of the conterminous United States, provides water for 40 million people, and is one of the most overallocated rivers in the world. As the upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) contributes an estimated 92% of the total basin natural streamflow, knowledge of the location and amount of surface water withdrawals in the UCOL is important for managing the Colorado River system. Since the UCOL encompasses portions of five states, water use data are dispersed among numerous federal and state agency databases, and there is no centralized dataset that documents surface water use within the entire UCOL at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. This article presents an inventory of 1,358 major structures that divert surface water from and within the UCOL with corresponding daily time series withdrawal records from 1980 through 2022. Data compilation efforts, processing methods, and contents of this diversion database are documented, and summary information is provided.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Arizona Groundwater Explorer: Interactive maps for evaluating the historical and current groundwater conditions in wells in Arizona, USA

Groundwater is an important water source in Arizona, accounting for about 41% of water use in this mostly arid-to-semiarid state in the southwestern United States, and the availability of groundwater resources in the state is a concern. To provide accessible information from depth-to-groundwater data, a series of web-based interactive maps were developed, called the Arizona Groundwater Explorer (AGEx). Scripts were written to harmonize and synthesize groundwater datasets from the two largest publicly available sources, subset these data to address different groundwater availability questions, and display the results in online, interactive maps. The combined dataset contained 1,820,122 depth-to-groundwater measurements from 1891 through 2022 from 41,918 wells in Arizona. Data views are provided for 20 topics, including recent (2020 or later) depth to groundwater (4,569 wells), historical (pre-1950) depth to groundwater (4,287 wells), wells with long-term (≥50 years) records (1,183 wells), wells with recent groundwater level decline (277 wells), wells with recent groundwater level rise (120 wells), and linear trends in groundwater levels over ten 10-year periods (number of wells ranging from 341 in 1978–1987 to 1,208 in 2003–2012), among others. With ongoing drought in the region resulting in declining surface-water supplies in Arizona, groundwater may play an even larger role in satisfying water needs in the state. The AGEx series of maps provides a nonspecialist audience with an improved understanding of historical, current, and changes in groundwater levels in Arizona.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Anthropogenic influence on groundwater geochemistry in Horn Creek Watershed near the Orphan Mine in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, USA

Breccia pipe deposits of the Grand Canyon region contain ore grade copper and uranium. Horn Creek is located near the Orphan Mine mineralized breccia pipe deposit and groundwater emerging from the bedrock in the headwaters of Horn Creek has the highest uranium concentrations in the region. Uranium decreases an order of magnitude between the groundwater at the top of the watershed and the groundwater emerging from the alluvial material lower in the watershed. Horn Creek water has low sulfur and uranium isotopic ratios which may suggest interaction with sulfide and uranium minerals found in mineralized breccia pipe deposits. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFBA and PFBS) were found in low concentrations in groundwater from the bedrock and may be related to mining process materials or other anthropogenic activities. PHREEQC modeling suggests that water that is elevated in uranium emerging from the bedrock in the upper watershed may mix with other groundwater and atmospheric precipitation infiltrated into the alluvial material in the lower watershed. Tritium is elevated in Horn Creek groundwaters suggesting a component of modern water, some of which may have interacted with Orphan Mine workings. Additional studies could build on this understanding of chemistry changes in waters of Horn Creek to provide more direct evidence of contribution of water moving through the Orphan Mine.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Arsenic in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region and an evaluation of potential pathways for arsenic contamination of groundwater from breccia pipe uranium mining

The Grand Canyon in northern Arizona is an international tourist destination, a home or sacred place to many Native Americans, and hosts some of the highest-grade uranium deposits in the United States. Although potential contamination of water resources by uranium from mining activities is a concern, other elements commonly associated with these uranium deposits may pose a greater risk to human populations in the area. This study presents an assessment of arsenic in groundwater in the Grand Canyon area. First, sampling results for arsenic are presented and areas with elevated arsenic concentrations are discussed. Potential pathways of groundwater contamination by arsenic from uranium mines are then discussed to elucidate situations and conditions under which elevated concentrations of arsenic might be expected to become mobilized from breccia-pipe uranium mining activities. Results for arsenic in groundwater in the study area were available for 652 samples collected from 230 sites. Arsenic concentrations in groundwater ranged from less than reporting limits in 60 samples to a maximum concentration of 875 μg/L at Pumpkin Spring. About 88% (202) of the sites sampled had a maximum arsenic concentration below the drinking water standard of 10 μg/L. Available data from near former or current breccia-pipe uranium mines in the area indicate limited evidence to-date of mining effects on elevated arsenic in groundwater, although slow groundwater flow paths in the region may result in extended times of decades or more for groundwater to reach discharge locations. Post-mining entry of groundwater into the shaft and underground mine workings, with subsequent transport of metal-enriched groundwater offsite, may be a potential pathway of groundwater arsenic contamination from mining, although concentrations would likely be attenuated by contact with sedimentary rock units and dilution with native groundwater along flow paths. Monitoring of perched groundwater at reclaimed mine sites post-reclamation could provide data on the effectiveness of clean-closure practices on protecting groundwater quality in the area.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Salinity and total dissolved solids measurements for natural waters: An overview and a new salinity method based on specific conductance and water type

The total concentration of dissolved constituents in water is routinely quantified by measurements of salinity or total dissolved solids (TDS). However, salinity and TDS are operationally defined by their analytical methods and are not equivalent for most waters. Furthermore, multiple methods are available to determine salinity and TDS, and these methods have inherent differences. TDS is defined as the mass of anhydrous residue remaining in a sample vessel after evaporation and subsequent oven drying at a defined temperature. Salinity is a measure of the mass of dissolved salts in a given mass of solution. In addition, there are approaches that quantify the total solute (TS) concentration, including gases. The purpose of this study is to develop a proxy method using specific conductance and major-ion water type to reliably predict salinity, TDS, and/or TS. Thus, we compared several methods to calculate salinity, TDS, and TS for 6391 surface water samples and conclude the following: TDS measurements are best suited for studies of anhydrous residue (e.g., evaporites); salinity determined by summing the speciated ion concentrations, termed S ∑spec , is the most comprehensive method to represent the concentration of dissolved constituents in natural waters; and TS determinations are useful if dissolved CO 2 and other gases are of interest. Thus, we utilized S ∑spec to compare differences between the various salinity, TDS, and TS methods, and to develop a new proxy method to predict salinity based on specific conductance (SC) and major ion water type, termed S SC_WT . For the surface waters used in this study, the median difference between TDS and S ∑Spec was between −19% and −24%, depending on the method. The median difference between S SC_WT and S ∑Spec was −2.4% for the samples in this study. The S SC_WT approach is cost effective, rapid, and capable of providing reliable real-time salinity determinations at surface water sites where SC data are available and water type is known.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2022

A review of current capabilities and science gaps in water supply data, modeling, and trends for water availability assessments in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Colorado River is a critical water resource in the southwestern United States, supplying drinking water for 40 million people in the region and water for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares of land. Extended drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) and the prospect of a warmer climate in the future pose water availability challenges for those charged with managing the river. Limited water availability in the future also may negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and wildlife that depend upon them. Water availability components of special importance in the UCOL include streamflow, salinity in groundwater and surface water, groundwater levels and storage, and the role of snow in the UCOL water cycle. This manuscript provides a review of current “state of the science” for these UCOL water availability components with a focus on identifying gaps in data, modeling, and trends in the basin. Trends provide context for evaluations of current conditions and motivation for further investigation and modeling, models allow for investigation of processes and projections of future water availability, and data support both efforts. Information summarized in this manuscript will be valuable in planning integrated assessments of water availability in the UCOL.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2021

An assessment of uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region

The Grand Canyon region in northern Arizona is a home or sacred place of origin for many Native Americans and is visited by over 6 million tourists each year. Most communities in the area depend upon groundwater for all water uses. Some of the highest-grade uranium ore in the United States also is found in the Grand Canyon region. A withdrawal of over 1 million acres of Federal land in the Grand Canyon region from new uranium mining activities for 20 years was instituted in 2012, owing in part to a lack of scientific data on potential effects from uranium mining on water resources in the area. The USGS collects groundwater chemistry samples in the Grand Canyon region to understand the current state of groundwater quality, to monitor for changes in groundwater quality that may be the result of mining activities, and to identify "hot spots" with elevated metal concentrations and investigate the causes. This manuscript presents results for the assessment of uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region. Analytical results for uranium in groundwater in the Grand Canyon region were available for 573 samples collected from 180 spring sites and 26 wells from September 1, 1981 to October 7, 2020. Samples were collected from springs issuing from stratigraphic units above, within, and below the Permian strata that hosts uranium ore in breccia pipes in the area. Maximum uranium concentrations at groundwater sites in the region ranged from less than 1 µg/L at 23 sites (11%) to 100 µg/L or more at 4 sites (2%). Of the 206 groundwater sites sampled, 195 sites (95%) had maximum observed uranium concentrations less than the USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level of 30 µg/L and 177 sites (86%) had uranium concentrations less than the 15 µg/L Canadian benchmark for protection of aquatic life in freshwater. The establishment of baseline groundwater quality is an important first step in monitoring for change in water chemistry throughout mining lifecycles and beyond to ensure the health of these critical groundwater resources.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Recent and projected precipitation and temperature changes in the Grand Canyon area with implications for groundwater resources

Groundwater is a critical resource in the Grand Canyon region, supplying nearly all water needs for residents and millions of visitors. Additionally, groundwater discharging at hundreds of spring locations in and near Grand Canyon supports important ecosystems in this mostly arid environment. The security of groundwater supplies is of critical importance for both people and ecosystems in the region and the potential for changes to groundwater systems from projected climate change is a cause for concern. In this study, we analyze recent historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the Grand Canyon region. Projected climate scenarios are then used in Soil Water Balance groundwater infiltration simulations to understand the state-of-the-science on projected changes to groundwater resources in the area. Historical climate data from 1896 through 2019 indicate multi-decadal cyclical patterns in both precipitation and temperature for most of the time period. Since the 1970s, however, a significant rising trend in temperature is observed in the area. All 10-year periods since 1993 are characterized by both below average precipitation and above average temperature. Downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation and temperature output from 97 CMIP5 global climate models for the water-year 2020–2099 time period indicate projected precipitation patterns similar to recent historical (water-year 1951–2015) data. Projected temperature for the Grand Canyon area, however, is expected to rise by as much as 3.4 °C by the end of the century, relative to the recent historical average. Integrating the effects of projected precipitation and temperature changes on groundwater infiltration, simulation results indicate that > 76% of future decades will experience average potential groundwater infiltration less than that of the recent historical period.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2020

Trends in recent historical and projected climate data for the Colorado River Basin and potential effects on groundwater availability

Understanding recent historical and projected trends in precipitation and temperature in the Colorado River Basin, and estimating what the projected changes in these climate parameters may mean for groundwater resources in the region, is important for water managers and policymakers to sustainably manage water resources in the basin. Historical (1896–2019) precipitation and temperature data for the upper and lower Colorado River Basins were analyzed to better understand recent trends in climate data that may affect groundwater resources in the area. Historical data indicate multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in precipitation in both the upper and lower basins. Although upper basin precipitation had no statistical trend over the recent historical period, the lower basin had a weak negative trend over this period. Multidecadal-scale cyclical patterns in temperature also are observed in historical climate data in both the upper and lower basins, at least until the early 1970s. Beginning at that time, both the upper and lower basins experienced strong, monotonic positive trends in temperature. Basic principles of hydrology indicate that periods of decreasing precipitation as well as increasing temperature would have a negative effect, that is, reduction in groundwater infiltration and hence, reduced recharge of aquifer systems. Projected climate data from 97 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble members across the full range of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) from water years 1951 through 2099 were evaluated to understand what current global climate models are projecting about future conditions in the Colorado River Basin, and what this might mean for groundwater systems in the region. Precipitation in the upper basin is projected to increase throughout the rest of the century, rising to 6 percent above the 1951–2015 historical period by mid-century and to 9 percent above the historical period by the end of the century. Temperature in the upper basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century, with steady warming in decadal average temperatures expected until the last quarter of this century. In contrast to projected precipitation in the upper basin, precipitation in the lower basin is projected to be the same as, or slightly less than, the historical period throughout most of the rest of this century. Like projected temperature in the upper basin, temperature in the lower basin also is projected to be above the recent historical median throughout the rest of the century. Comparing median projections for all future decades with median results from all historical decades, future precipitation is expected to be greater than that of the past in the upper basin, though no significant difference is projected for precipitation in the lower basin. Significant increases (p-value<0.05) are expected in temperature in both the upper and lower basins. To estimate the effects of projected precipitation and temperature on groundwater systems in the region, results from the 97 member CMIP5 climate projection ensemble were used as input in a Soil-Water Balance (SWB) groundwater infiltration model for the Colorado River Basin. SWB simulation results indicate that the upper Colorado River Basin is expected to experience decades of above-historical-average groundwater infiltration through the end of the century. For the lower Colorado River Basin, simulated groundwater infiltration is projected to be consistently less than the recent (1951–2015) historical period for most of the remaining century. A comparison of the distribution of all median simulated groundwater infiltration results between recent historical and future periods indicates projected groundwater infiltration in the upper basin is significantly (p-value<0.05) greater over the combined 2020–2099 future period than the recent (1951–2015) historical period. Moreover, in 41 of 71 (58 percent) possible future decades in this century, groundwater infiltration is projected to be greater than the 75th percentile of historical simulated groundwater infiltration. Projected groundwater infiltration in the lower Colorado River Basin across all future decades is significantly less than in the historical period. Of the 71 future decades in the century, projected groundwater infiltration in the lower basin is expected to be less than the 25th percentile of historical infiltration in 55 (77 percent) of the 10-year periods. Important differences in projected precipitation between the upper (increasing precipitation) and lower (decreasing precipitation) basins largely drive the different responses of simulated groundwater infiltration in the upper (increasing infiltration) and lower (decreasing infiltration) basins. It will be useful to revisit projections in groundwater infiltration in the Colorado River Basin when more up-to-date projections of precipitation become available from the next Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases or by using climate input developments through Regional Climate Modeling efforts and stochastic weather generators.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2020

Assessing uranium and select trace elements associated with breccia pipe uranium deposits in the Colorado River and main tributaries in Grand Canyon, USA

Assessing chemical loading from streams in remote, difficult-to-access watersheds is challenging. The Grand Canyon area in northern Arizona, an international tourist destination and sacred place for many Native Americans, is characterized by broad plateaus divided by canyons as much as two-thousand meters deep and hosts some of the highest-grade uranium deposits in the U.S. From 2015–2018 major surface waters in Grand Canyon were monitored for select elements associated with breccia-pipe uranium deposits in the area, including uranium, arsenic, cadmium, and lead. Dissolved constituents in the Colorado River were monitored upstream (Lees Ferry), in the middle (Phantom Ranch), and downstream (Diamond Creek) of uranium mining areas. Concentrations of uranium, arsenic, cadmium, and lead at these main-stem sites varied little during the study period and were all well below human health and aquatic life benchmark criteria (30, 10, 5, and 15 μg/L maximum contaminant levels and 15, 150, 0.8, and 3.1 μg/L aquatic life criteria, respectively). Additionally, dissolved and sediment-bound constituents were monitored during a wide range of streamflow conditions at Little Colorado River, Kanab Creek, and Havasu Creek tributaries, whose watersheds have experienced different levels of uranium mining activities over time. Samples from the tributary sites contained ≤3.8 μg/L of dissolved cadmium and lead, and ≤17 μg/L of dissolved uranium. Dissolved arsenic also was mostly below human and aquatic life criteria at Little Colorado River and Kanab Creek; however, 63% of water samples from Havasu Creek were above the maximum contaminant level for arsenic. Arsenic in suspended sediment was greater than sediment quality guidelines in 9%, 35%, and 35% of samples from Little Colorado River, Kanab Creek, and Havasu Creek, respectively. At the concentrations observed during this study, tributaries contributed on average only about 0.12 μg/L of arsenic and 0.03 μg/L of uranium to the main-stem river. This study demonstrates how chemical loading from mined watersheds may be reliably assessed across a wide range of flow conditions in challenging locations.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Geochemical characterization of groundwater evolution south of Grand Canyon, Arizona (USA)

Better characterization of the geochemical evolution of groundwater south of Grand Canyon, Arizona (USA), is needed to understand natural conditions and assess potential effects from breccia-pipe uranium mining in the region. Geochemical signatures of groundwater at 28 sampling locations were evaluated; baseline concentrations for select trace elements (As, B, Ba, Cr, Li, Mo, Rb, Se, Sr, Th, Tl, U, V) were established, and anomalous chemistry characteristics were identified. Concentrations at some groundwater sites exceeded the USEPA drinking water standard for As of 10 μg/L (Red Canyon, Miners, JT, Havasu, and Warm Springs) and U of 30 μg/L (Salt Creek Spring). Four springs from the study area (Blue, Havasu, Fern, and Warm Springs) had unique chemistry, which may indicate a deep flow path or potential contribution of fluids from lower in the crust. Other springs in the study area were distinguished by major anion water type: sulfate, bicarbonate, and a mixture of the two. Water type distinctions were somewhat spatially segregated, with sulfate type present on the western side of the study area, bicarbonate type on the eastern side, and a mixture of the two interspersed between the endmember sites. Sulfate-type water from this study area had low strontium isotopic ratio (87Sr/86Sr) values. The location of spring discharge within single drainages of the Grand Canyon may influence chemistry, as groundwater discharging from bedrock was altered after flowing through alluvial material. Geochemical analysis of groundwater in Grand Canyon indicates the importance of continued monitoring and better understanding of short-term chemical fluctuations.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

Investigation of recent decadal-scale cyclical fluctuations in salinity in the lower Colorado river

Beginning in the late 1970s, 10- to 15-year cyclical oscillations in salinity were observed at lower Colorado River monitoring sites, moving upstream from the international border with Mexico, above Imperial Dam, below Hoover Dam, and at Lees Ferry. The cause of these cyclical trends in salinity was unknown. These salinity cycles complicate the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (Reclamation) responsibility for managing salinity in the river for delivery of water to Mexico to meet treaty obligations. This study develops a conceptual model of the salinity cycles from time-series water quality, streamflow, and precipitation data in both the lower and upper Colorado River Basins in order to provide Reclamation the ability to understand, anticipate, and manage future salinity cycles in the lower river. Compared with the Lees Ferry record, both maximum and minimum salinity levels increase downstream by about 25% at Hoover Dam, by about 49% at Imperial Dam, and by about 69% at the northern international boundary with Mexico. In the upper basin, cyclical salinity trends are evident at the outflow of three major tributaries, where salinity is also noted to be inversely related to streamflow. Time series trends in precipitation within the catchments of the three upper basin tributaries indicate cyclical periods with above normal precipitation and periods with below normal precipitation. Periods of greater than normal precipitation in the contributing areas correspond with declines in salinity at the catchment monitoring sites and periods of less than normal precipitation correspond with rising salinity at the sites. Based on the conceptual model developed in this investigation, a multiple linear regression model was developed using a stepwise variable selection procedure to simulate salinity in Lake Powell inflow. Important variables in the explanation of salinity entering Lake Powell include flow from the three upper basin tributaries, seasonality, and mean precipitation in the upper basin, among others. The root mean square error of prediction for the MLR model was 31.48 mg/L (5.7%).

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomi↗

USGS2018

Managing salinity in Upper Colorado River Basin streams: Selecting catchments for sediment control efforts using watershed characteristics and random forests models

Elevated concentrations of dissolved-solids (salinity) including calcium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride, among others, in the Colorado River cause substantial problems for its water users. Previous efforts to reduce dissolved solids in upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) streams often focused on reducing suspended-sediment transport to streams, but few studies have investigated the relationship between suspended sediment and salinity, or evaluated which watershed characteristics might be associated with this relationship. Are there catchment properties that may help in identifying areas where control of suspended sediment will also reduce salinity transport to streams? A random forests classification analysis was performed on topographic, climate, land cover, geology, rock chemistry, soil, and hydrologic information in 163 UCRB catchments. Two random forests models were developed in this study: one for exploring stream and catchment characteristics associated with stream sites where dissolved solids increase with increasing suspended-sediment concentration, and the other for predicting where these sites are located in unmonitored reaches. Results of variable importance from the exploratory random forests models indicate that no simple source, geochemical process, or transport mechanism can easily explain the relationship between dissolved solids and suspended sediment concentrations at UCRB monitoring sites. Among the most important watershed characteristics in both models were measures of soil hydraulic conductivity, soil erodibility, minimum catchment elevation, catchment area, and the silt component of soil in the catchment. Predictions at key locations in the basin were combined with observations from selected monitoring sites, and presented in map-form to give a complete understanding of where catchment sediment control practices would also benefit control of dissolved solids in streams.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2018

Effect of spatial and temporal scale on simulated groundwater recharge investigations

Hydrologic model input datasets such as climate, land use, elevation, soil, and geology information are available in a range of scales for use in water resources investigations. Smaller spatial and temporal scale input data allow groundwater recharge models to simulate more physically realistic processes and presumably result in more accurate estimates of groundwater recharge. Projected climate data are, therefore, often downscaled to smaller spatial and temporal scales for use in these models. It is unknown, however, if increasingly smaller-scale climate data produce substantially different simulated recharge results, either in magnitude or trend. Also, even if simulated recharge results are different at a higher space and time resolution, simulation at coarser resolution might be adequate to provide recharge information at decision scales (e.g., meeting Colorado River compact requirements on a ten-year moving average basis). Historical climate datasets at three spatial (∼800 m, ∼4 km, and ∼12 km) and two temporal (daily and monthly) scales were used in a Soil Water Balance (SWB) model of the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) to simulate groundwater recharge over the water-year 1982–2014 time period. The magnitude of annual and moving ten-year annual average recharge results for daily climate data were within 5% and 7% of ∼4 km results for ∼800 m and ∼12 km climate data, respectively, with deviations from 1982 to 2014 means within 1% and 3% (median), respectively. Comparison of simulated recharge results using the coarsest spatial and temporal climate data with results from the finest scale data indicated similar small differences over ten-year moving annual averages, over water years, and during high recharge months. While differences in simulated groundwater recharge magnitude, which may be important for groundwater-flow simulations, were substantial during some seasonal comparisons, trends in recharge were almost identical across scales, leading to similar conclusions about change from “normal”. Considering the uncertainty inherent in projected climate data, coarser spatial and longer temporal scale input data may be sufficient for water resources managers who need to understand changes in trends in groundwater recharge over water-year or longer time periods.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗