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F. Martin Ralph

Publications and source records attributed to F. Martin Ralph.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2019

A scale to characterize the strength and impacts of atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play vital roles in the western United States and related regions globally, not only producing heavy precipitation and flooding, but also providing beneficial water supply. This paper introduces a scale for the intensity and impacts of ARs. Its utility may be greatest where ARs are the most impactful storm type and hurricanes, nor’easters, and tornadoes are nearly nonexistent. Two parameters dominate the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of ARs: vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and AR duration [i.e., the duration of at least minimal AR conditions (IVT ≥ 250 kg m –1 s –1 )]. The scale uses an observed or predicted time series of IVT at a given geographic location and is based on the maximum IVT and AR duration at that point during an AR event. AR categories 1–5 are defined by thresholds for maximum IVT (3-h average) of 250, 500, 750, 1,000, and 1,250 kg m –1 s –1 , and by IVT exceeding 250 kg m –1 s –1 continuously for 24–48 h. If the AR event duration is less than 24 h, it is downgraded by one category. If it is longer than 48 h, it is upgraded one category. The scale recognizes that weak ARs are often mostly beneficial because they can enhance water supply and snowpack, while stronger ARs can become mostly hazardous, for example, if they strike an area with antecedent conditions that enhance vulnerability, such as burn scars or wet conditions. Extended durations can enhance impacts. Short durations can mitigate impacts.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2018

Hourly analyses of the large storms and atmospheric rivers that provide most of California's precipitation in only 10 to 100 hours per year

California is regularly impacted by floods and droughts, primarily as a result of too many or too few atmospheric rivers (ARs). This study analyzes a two-decade-long hourly precipitation dataset from 176 California weather stations and a 3-hourly AR chronology to report variations in rainfall events across California and their association with ARs. On average, 10-40 and 60-120 hours of rainfall in southern and northern California, respectively, are responsible for more than half of annual rainfall accumulations. Approximately 10-30% of annual precipitation at locations across the state is from only one large storm. On average, northern California receives 25-45 rainfall events annually (40-50% of which are AR-related). These events typically have longer durations and higher event-precipitation totals than those in southern California. Northern California also receives more AR landfalls with longer durations and stronger Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT). On average, ARs contribute 79%, 76%, and 68% of extreme-rainfall accumulations (i.e., top 5% events annually) in the north coast, northern Sierra, and Transverse Ranges of southern California, respectively. The San Francisco Bay Area terrain gap in the California Coast Range allows more AR water vapor to reach inland over the Delta and Sacramento Valley, and thus, influences precipitation in the Delta’s catchment. This is particularly important for extreme precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada, including river basins above Oroville Dam and Shasta Dam. This study highlights differences between rainfall and AR characteristics in coastal versus inland northern California, differences that largely determine the regional geography of flood risks and water-reliability. These analyses support water resource, flood, levee, wetland, and ecosystem management within the catchment of the San Francisco estuary system by describing regional characteristics of ARs and their influence on rainfall on an hourly timescale.

California↗
USGS2018

Defining “atmospheric river”: How the Glossary of Meteorology helped resolve a debate

Since the term “atmospheric river” (AR) first appeared in modern scientific literature in the early 1990s, it has generated debate about the meaning of the concept. A common popular definition is something along the lines of a “river in the sky,” albeit as a river of water vapor rather than of liquid. This general concept has come into regular use in the western United States and in some other regions affected by ARs, partly due to its use by media, and due to the intuitive nature of the concept. However, over the last 20 years there have been varying perspectives on the term in the technical community. These perspectives range roughly from considering it duplicative of preexisting concepts, such as the warm conveyor belt (WCB), to arguments that the analogy to terrestrial rivers is inappropriate, to being a primary topic of focused research, applications, and usage by water managers.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2017

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Atmospheric rivers emerge as a global science and applications focus

Recent advances in atmospheric sciences and hydrology have identified the key role of atmo-spheric rivers (ARs) in determining the distribution of strong precipitation events in the midlatitudes. The growth of the subject is evident in the increase in scientific publications that discuss ARs (Fig. 1a). Combined with related phenomena, that is, warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and tropical moisture exports (TMEs), the frequency, position, and strength of ARs determine the occurrence of floods, droughts, and water resources in many parts of the world. A conference at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, recently gathered over 100 experts in atmospheric, hydrologic, oceanic, and polar science; ecology; water management; and civil engineering to assess the state of AR science and to explore the need for new information. This first International Atmospheric Rivers Conference (IARC) allowed for much needed introductions and interactions across fields and regions, for example, participants came from five continents, and studies covered ARs in six continents and Greenland (Fig. 1b). IARC also fostered discussions of the status and future of AR science, and attendees strongly supported the idea of holding another IARC at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the summer of 2018.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗
USGS2016

Predictability of horizontal water vapor transport relative to precipitation: Enhancing situational awareness for forecasting western U.S. extreme precipitation and flooding

The western United States is vulnerable to socioeconomic disruption due to extreme winter precipitation and floods. Traditionally, forecasts of precipitation and river discharge provide the basis for preparations. Herein we show that earlier event awareness may be possible through use of horizontal water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) forecasts. Applying the potential predictability concept to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global ensemble reforecasts, across 31 winters, IVT is found to be more predictable than precipitation. IVT ensemble forecasts with the smallest spreads (least forecast uncertainty) are associated with initiation states with anomalously high geopotential heights south of Alaska, a setup conducive for anticyclonic conditions and weak IVT into the western United States. IVT ensemble forecasts with the greatest spreads (most forecast uncertainty) have initiation states with anomalously low geopotential heights south of Alaska and correspond to atmospheric rivers. The greater IVT predictability could provide warnings of impending storminess with additional lead times for hydrometeorological applications.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day −1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day −1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2015

Categorisation of northern California rainfall for periods with and without a radar brightband using stable isotopes and a novel automated precipitation collector

During landfall of extratropical cyclones between 2005 and 2011, nearly 1400 precipitation samples were collected at intervals of 30-min time resolution with novel automated collectors at four NOAA sites in northern California [Alta (ATA), Bodega Bay (BBY), Cazadero (CZD) and Shasta Dam (STD)] during 43 events. Substantial decreases were commonly followed hours later by substantial increases in hydrogen isotopic composition ( δ 2 H VSMOW where VSMOW is Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) and oxygen isotopic composition ( δ 18 O VSMOW ) of precipitation. These variations likely occur as pre-cold frontal precipitation generation transitions from marine vapour masses having low rainout to cold cloud layers having much higher rainout (with concomitant brightband signatures measured by an S-band profiling radar and lower δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation), and finally to shallower, warmer precipitating clouds having lower rainout (with non-brightband signatures and higher δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation), in accord with ‘seeder–feeder’ precipitation. Of 82 intervals identified, a remarkable 100.5 ‰ decrease in δ 2 H VSMOW value was observed for a 21 January 2010 event at BBY. Of the 61 intervals identified with increases in δ 2 H VSMOW values as precipitation transitioned to shallower, warmer clouds having substantially less rainout (the feeder part of the seeder–feeder mechanism), a remarkable increase in δ 2 H VSMOW value of precipitation of 82.3 ‰ was observed for a 10 February 2007 event at CZD. All CZD and ATA events having δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation below −105 ‰ were atmospheric rivers (ARs), and of the 13 events having δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation below −80 ‰, 77 % were ARs. Cloud echo-top heights (a proxy for atmospheric temperature) were available for 23 events. The mean echo-top height is greater for higher rainout periods than that for lower rainout periods in 22 of the 23 events. The lowest δ 2 H VSMOW of precipitation of 28 CZD events was −137.9 ‰ on 16 February 2009 during an AR with cold precipitating clouds and very high rainout with tops >6.5 km altitude. An altitude effect of −2.5 ‰ per 100 m was measured from BBY and CZD δ 2 H VSMOW data and of −1.8 ‰ per 100 m for CZD and ATA δ 2 H VSMOW data. We present a new approach to categorise rainfall intervals using δ 2 H VSMOW values of precipitation and rainfall rates. We term this approach the algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall, and we were able to identify higher rainout and/or lower rainout periods during all events in this study. We conclude that algorithmic-isotopic categorisation of rainfall can enable users to distinguish between tropospheric vapour masses having relatively high rainout (typically with brightband rain and that commonly are ARs) and vapour masses having lower rainout (commonly with non-brightband rain).

California↗
USGS2015

Setting the stage for a global science of atmospheric rivers

Atmospheric rivers are important mechanisms for transporting water vapor through the atmosphere outside the tropics. These long, narrow, transient corridors occur at low altitudes just ahead of the cold front in midlatitude cyclone systems. These rivers in the sky stitch together the components of the extratropical water cycle by providing large-scale horizontal water vapor transport.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News↗
USGS2013

The landfall and inland penetration of a flood-producing atmospheric river in Arizona. Part I: observed synoptic-scale, orographic, and hydrometeorological characteristics

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a dominant mechanism for generating intense wintertime precipitation along the U.S. West Coast. While studies over the past 10 years have explored the impact of ARs in, and west of, California’s Sierra Nevada and the Pacific Northwest’s Cascade Mountains, their influence on the weather across the intermountain west remains an open question. This study utilizes gridded atmospheric datasets, satellite imagery, rawinsonde soundings, a 449-MHz wind profiler and global positioning system (GPS) receiver, and operational hydrometeorological observing networks to explore the dynamics and inland impacts of a landfalling, flood-producing AR across Arizona in January 2010. Plan-view, cross-section, and back-trajectory analyses quantify the synoptic and mesoscale forcing that led to widespread precipitation across the state. The analyses show that a strong AR formed in the lower midlatitudes over the northeastern Pacific Ocean via frontogenetic processes and sea surface latent-heat fluxes but without tapping into the adjacent tropical water vapor reservoir to the south. The wind profiler, GPS, and rawinsonde observations document strong orographic forcing in a moist neutral environment within the AR that led to extreme, orographically enhanced precipitation. The AR was oriented nearly orthogonal to the Mogollon Rim, a major escarpment crossing much of central Arizona, and was positioned between the high mountain ranges of northern Mexico. High melting levels during the heaviest precipitation contributed to region-wide flooding, while the high-altitude snowpack increased substantially. The characteristics of the AR that impacted Arizona in January 2010, and the resulting heavy orographic precipitation, are comparable to those of landfalling ARs and their impacts along the west coasts of midlatitude continents.

Arizona↗