Cape Lookout National Seashore storm characterization: Evaluation in support of cultural resource management
No abstract available.
North Carolina↗
Geology topics
Erin Seekamp
Publications and source records attributed to Erin Seekamp.
Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method
Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.
Climate Risk Management↗
Tourist perceptions of climate change impacts on mountain ecotourism in southern Mexico
Climate change impacts on tourism are well documented, with most studies focusing on challenges facing ski or beach tourism. While non-ski, mountain tourism accounts for almost one fifth of tourism worldwide, there is a dearth of research on tourists’ perceptions of climate change impacts and their effects on tourism demand in these areas. This study, conducted at the ecotourism destination of the Pueblos Mancomunados in the Sierra Norte Mountains of southern Mexico, helps to fill that gap by identifying important tourist decision factors and determining how tourists’ decisions to visit may change under different climatic conditions. Using on-site intercept survey research methodology involving 188 tourists, we found that some climate change scenarios affect tourists’ perceptions of the desirability of visiting nature-based tourism sites. Results indicate that community-based ecotourism businesses, such as the one that operates in the Pueblos Mancomunados, need to specifically plan for climate change impacts, as they may need to alter tourism offerings to sustain demand.
Oaxaca↗
Gulf Islands National Seashore regional sediment budget research and data needs—Workshop series summary
Executive Summary The National Park Service (NPS), in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), recognizes the need to quantify the sediment budget of the barrier islands within the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GINS) to understand the coastal processes affecting island resiliency. To achieve this goal, identifying and quantifying the physical parameters that drive long-term change is necessary to model the processes that are both generative and terminal in island evolution and capture island response to long-term human alteration and climatic patterns. For example, measuring change across periods of storminess is more effective at assessing island resiliency than measuring change resulting from a single storm impact. Understanding changes to the physical environment over time is key to successfully predicting island responses to future storm impacts, human alteration, and sea-level rise and is necessary for effective decision making and management response. Yet, the diversity of factors affecting natural and cultural resources necessitates a strategic approach to data collection priorities that can inform sediment budget quantification and integrated resource management. This study sought to advance sediment budget modeling efforts by conducting a “Needs Assessment Workshop” at the GINS. The purpose of the workshop was to identify and prioritize the specific research and data needs regarding the sediment budget at the GINS that can enhance the NPS efforts to conserve the islands’ natural resources, cultural resources, and the facilities and infrastructure that support both conservation and visitor use of those resources. This effort explored two research questions: (1) “what research and data needs exist for the sediment budget at Gulf Islands National Seashore” (research question 1) and (2) “how can research to address these needs capitalize on regional partnerships to advance natural and cultural resource conservation at Gulf Islands National Seashore” (research question 2)? The workshop was conducted virtually in a two-part, two-day series. The workshop series was organized by researchers from North Carolina State University in collaboration with NPS and USGS staff and was facilitated by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration staff. The workshop series (two paired, sequential, partial-day workshops) addressed two target audiences: (1) NPS and USGS staff (April workshop) and (2) regional Federal, State, county, and nongovernmental organization staff, including NPS and USGS staff (May workshop). A total of four workshop sessions were held, comprising two sessions with each target audience. The workshop series intended to identify sediment management research and data needs that could enhance natural and cultural resource stewardship at the GINS. One objective was to share information about regional sediment transport and management, available sediment management plans, and predictive modeling capabilities, including geomorphologic and hydrodynamic predictive models. This information was shared through a series of presentations by park managers and NPS and USGS researchers that identified park issues and available capabilities and data. The second objective was to elicit research and data needs, with a primary goal of assessing the importance and urgency of the identified needs. This assessment was partly determined by requesting that the workshop participants identify and prioritize research themes through polls, comments, and discussion. The polls explicitly asked participants to qualitatively evaluate the importance (not at all, slightly, somewhat, very, or extremely) and urgency (not at all, slightly, somewhat, very, or extremely) of the thematically grouped research and data needs. These evaluations were plotted and shared during the workshop to visualize how the relative importance ( x -axis) and relative urgency ( y -axis) of each “need,” relative to other needs, to identify the most necessary (importance) and time-sensitive (urgent) items, thereby allowing an enhanced, holistic understanding of the sediment budget at GINS. Results of the poll are published as a USGS data release. The assessment results revealed that the most important and urgent research and data needs included mapping (for example, elevation, habitat, and cultural resources), a regional sediment budget and management plan, and the dynamic modeling of sediment processes. During the workshop, these issues were visualized using scatter plots to demonstrate the relative importance and urgency of each theme, provide descriptive statistics, and elicit discussion. This format of iterative presentation, discussion, and prioritization allowed the project team to effectively accomplish their objective of identifying important and urgent research needs for natural and cultural resource stewardship at the GINS. Through the workshop, it was determined that expanded communication with the broader research community was needed to coordinate research activities and streamline potential funding opportunities and that research and policy should be integrated through a structured decision-making process. At the conclusion of the workshop, an administered poll showed that the presentations effectively identified data and research needs and that the goals of the workshop were achieved. The results suggest that this type of needs-assessment workshop can effectively identify existing research capabilities and data, determine and prioritize research and data needs, and address how these efforts can use regional partnerships to aid natural and cultural resource conservation and management at National Parks.
Florida, Mississippi↗
Optimizing preservation for multiple types of historic structures under climate change
Cultural resources in coastal parks and recreation areas are vulnerable to climate change. The US National Park Service (NPS) is facing the challenge of insufficient budget allocations for both maintenance and climate adaptation of historic structures. Research on adaptation planning for cultural resources has predominately focused on vulnerability assessments of heritage sites; however, few studies integrate multiple factors (e.g., vulnerability, cultural significance, use potential, and costs) that managers should consider when making tradeoff decisions about which cultural resources to prioritize for adaptation. Moreover, heritage sites typically include multiple types of cultural resources, and researchers have yet to examine such complex tradeoffs. This study applies the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model as a decision support framework to evaluate the tradeoffs of adaptation actions among multiple types of historic structures—wooden buildings, masonry and concrete buildings, forts, and batteries—under varying budget scenarios. Results suggest that the resource values of different types of historic structures vary greatly under a range of budget scenarios, and tradeoffs have to be made among different types of historical structures to achieve optimal planning objectives. Moreover, periodic, incremental funding and partial maintenance are identified as optimal funding strategies for preservation needs of cost-intensive historic structures. Also, adaptative use of historical buildings (e.g., building occupancy) can improve the resource values when budgets are constrained. The OptiPres Model provides managers with a unique framework to inform adaptation planning efforts for a broad range of historic structures, which is transferable across coastal parks to enhance historic preservation planning under climate change.
Landscape and Urban Planning↗
Optimizing historical preservation under climate change—An overview of the optimal preservation model and pilot testing at Cape Lookout National Seashore
Adapting cultural resources to climate-change effects challenges traditional cultural resource decision making because some adaptation strategies can negatively affect the integrity of cultural resources. Yet, the inevitability of climate-change effects—even given the uncertain timing of those effects—necessitates that managers begin prioritizing resources for climate-change adaptation. Prioritization imposes an additional management challenge: managers must make difficult tradeoffs to achieve desired management outcomes related to maximizing the resource values. This report provides an overview of a pilot effort to integrate vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), significance, and use potential metrics in a decision framework—the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model—to inform climate adaptation planning of a subset of buildings in historic districts (listed on the National Register of Historic Places) at Cape Lookout National Seashore. The OptiPres Model uses a numerical optimization algorithm to assess the timing and application of a portfolio of adaptation actions that could most effectively preserve an assortment of buildings associated with different histories, intended uses, and construction design and materials over a 30-year planning horizon. The outputs from the different budget scenarios, though not prescriptive, provide visualizations of and insights to the sequence and type of optimal actions and the changes to individual building resource values and accumulated resource values. Study findings suggest the OptiPres Model has planning utility related to fiscal efficiency by identifying a budget threshold necessary to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historical buildings while reducing vulnerability (collectively, the accumulated resource value). Specifically, findings identify that a minimum of the industry standard ($222,000 annually for the 17 buildings) is needed to maintain the current accumulated resource value. Additionally, results suggest that additional appropriations provided on regular intervals when annual appropriations are at the industry standard are nearly as efficient as annual appropriations at twice the rate of industry standards and increase the amount of accumulated resource values to nearly the same level. However, periodic increases in funding may increase the risks posed to buildings from the probability of a natural hazard (that is, damage or loss from a hurricane). Suggestions for model refinements include developing standardized cost estimations for adaptation actions based on square footage and building materials, developing metrics to quantify the historical integrity of buildings, integrating social values data, including additional objectives (such as public safety) in the model, refining vulnerability data and transforming the data to include risk assessment, and incorporating stochastic events (that is, hurricane and wind effects) into the model.
North Carolina↗
Optimizing historic preservation under climate change: Decision support for cultural resource adaptation planning in national parks
Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration , and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal, annual adaptation actions for historic buildings across a 30-year planning horizon, (b) quantify trade-offs between different actions and the timing of adaptation actions under constrained budgets, and (c) estimate the effectiveness of budget allocations on the resource value of historic buildings. Our analysis of the model suggests that: (1) funding allocation thresholds may exist for national parks to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historic buildings under climate change, (2) the quantitative assessment of trade-offs among alternative adaptation actions provides generalizable guidance for decision makers about the dynamics of their managed system, and (3) the OptiPres model can identify cost-efficient approaches to allocate funding to maintain the historical value of buildings vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, the OptiPres model, while not designed as a prescriptive decision tool, allows managers to understand the consequences of proposed adaptation actions. The OptiPres model can guide park managers to make cost-effective climate adaptation decisions for historic buildings more transparently and robustly.
Land Use Policy↗