Geology topics

Erin L. Muths

Publications and source records attributed to Erin L. Muths.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) not detected in an intensive survey of wild North American amphibians

The salamander chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans [Bsal]) is causing massive mortality of salamanders in Europe. The potential for spread via international trade into North America and the high diversity of salamanders has catalyzed concern about Bsal in the U.S. Surveillance programs for invading pathogens must initially meet challenges that include low rates of occurrence on the landscape, low prevalence at a site, and imperfect detection of the diagnostic tests. We implemented a large-scale survey to determine if Bsal was present in North America designed to target taxa and localities where Bsal was determined highest risk to be present based on species susceptibility and geography. Our analysis included a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of occurrence of Bsal given our prior knowledge of the occurrence and prevalence of the pathogen. We failed to detect Bsal in any of 11,189 samples from 594 sites in 223 counties within 35 U.S. states and one site in Mexico. Our modeling indicates that Bsal is highly unlikely to occur within wild amphibians in the U.S. and suggests that the best proactive response is to continue mitigation efforts against the introduction and establishment of the disease and to develop plans to reduce impacts should Bsal establish.

Continental United States↗

USGS2020

Highly variable rates of survival to metamorphosis in wild boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas)

Life history theory suggests that long‐lived, pond‐breeding amphibians should have low and highly variable early life‐stage survival rates, but this theoretical expectation is often untested and the causes of variation are usually unknown. We evaluated the impact of hydroperiod, presence of a pathogen ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]), presence of a potential predator (cutthroat trout Oncorhychus clarki stomias) , and whether animals had been reintroduced into a site on survival of early life stages of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ). We used a multistate mark‐recapture framework to estimate survival of boreal toad embryos from egg to metamorphosis at four sites over 5 years. We found substantial spatial and temporal variation in survival to metamorphosis and documented some evidence that monthly tadpole survival was lower in sites with Bd, without trout, and at permanent sites. Our results support theories of amphibian life history, aid in the management of this species of conservation concern, and contribute to our knowledge of the ecology of the species. Additionally, we present methodology that allows practitioners to account for different lengths of time between sampling periods when estimating survival probabilities which is especially applicable to organisms with distinct biological stages.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2020

Determinants and consequences of dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles: a review of pond-breeding amphibians

Dispersal is a central process in ecology and evolution. It strongly influences the dynamics of spatially structured populations, by affecting population growth rate and local colonization-extinction processes. Dispersal can also influence evolutionary processes because it determines rates and patterns of gene flow in spatially structured populations and is closely linked to local adaptation. For these reasons, dispersal has received considerable attention from ecologists and evolutionary biologists. However, although it has been studied extensively in taxa such as birds and mammals, much less is known about dispersal in vertebrates with complex life cycles such as pond-breeding amphibians. Over the past two decades, researchers have taken an interest in amphibian dispersal and initiated both fundamental and applied studies, using a broad range of experimental and observational approaches. This body of research reveals complex dispersal patterns, causations and syndromes, with dramatic consequences for the demography and genetics of amphibian populations. In this review, our goals are to (1) redefine and clarify the concept of amphibian dispersal, (2) review current knowledge about the effects of individual (i.e., condition-dependent dispersal) and environmental (i.e., context-dependent dispersal) factors during the three stages of dispersal (i.e., emigration, immigration, transience), (3) identify the demographic and genetic consequences of dispersal in spatially structured amphibian populations, and (4) propose new research avenues to extend our understanding of amphibian dispersal. In particular, we emphasize the need to (1) quantify dispersal rate and distance rigorously using suitable model systems, (2) investigate the genetic basis and dispersal evolution patterns, and (3) examine dispersal-related eco-evolutionary dynamics. These proposed research avenues tap from the recent advances in quantitative and molecular methods and have the potential to improve our understanding of dispersal in organisms with complex life cycles.

The Quarterly Review of Biology↗

USGS2020

Survival estimates for the invasive American bullfrog

American bullfrogs ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) are significant invaders in many places and can negatively impact native species. Despite their impact and wide distribution, little is known about their demography. We used five years of capture mark-recapture data to estimate annual apparent survival of post-metamorphic bullfrogs in a population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in their invaded range in Arizona, U.S.A. This population is a potential source of colonists into breeding ponds used by the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( L. chiricahuensis ). Results from robust-design Cormack-Jolly-Seber models suggested that survival of bullfrogs was influenced by sex and precipitation but not body condition. Survival was higher for females (mean = 0.37; 95% CI=0.15 , 0.72) than males (mean = 0.17; 95% CI=0.02 , 0.49), and declined with reduced annual precipitation (mean = −0.36, 95% CI = −2.09, 0.84). These survival estimates can be incorporated into models of population dynamics and to help predict spread of bullfrogs.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

A synthesis of evidence of drivers of amphibian declines

Early calls for robust long-term time series of amphibian population data, stemming from discussion following the first World Congress of Herpetology, are now being realized after 25 yr of focused research. Inference from individual studies and locations have contributed to a basic consensus on drivers of amphibian declines. Until recently there were no large-scale syntheses of long-term time series data to test hypotheses about the generality of factors driving population dynamics at broad spatial scales. Through the U.S. Geological Survey's Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, we brought together a group of scientists to elucidate mechanisms underlying amphibian declines in North America and Europe. We used time series of field data collected across dozens of study areas to make inferences with these combined data using hierarchical and spatial models. We bring together results from four syntheses of these data to summarize our state of knowledge of amphibian declines, identify commonalities that suggest further avenues of study, and suggest a way forward in addressing amphibian declines—by looking beyond specific drivers to how to achieve stability in remaining populations. The common thread of the syntheses is that declines are real but not ubiquitous, and that multiple factors drive declines but the relative importance of each factor varies among species, populations, and regions. We also found that climate is an important driver of amphibian population dynamics. However, the direction and magnitude of sensitivity to change vary among species in ways unlikely to explain overall rates of decline. Thirty years after the initial identification of a major catastrophe for global biodiversity, the scientific community has empirically demonstrated the reality of the problem, identified putative causes, provided evidence of their impacts, invested in broader-scale actions, and attempted meta-analyses to search out global drivers. We suggest an approach that focuses on key demographic rates that may improve amphibian population trends at multiple sites across the landscape.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2020

Effects of snowpack, temperature, and disease on the demography of a wild population of amphibians

Understanding the demographic consequences of interactions among pathogens, hosts, and weather conditions is critical in determining how amphibian populations respond to disease and in identifying site-specific conservation actions that can be developed to bolster persistence of amphibian populations. We investigated population dynamics in Boreal Toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) relative to abiotic (fall temperatures and snowpack) and biotic (the abundance of another anuran host and disease) characteristics of the local environment in Wyoming, USA. We used capture–recapture data and a multistate model where state was treated as a hidden Markov process to incorporate disease state uncertainty and assess our a priori hypotheses. Our results indicated that snowpack during the coldest week of winter is more influential to toad survival, disease transition probabilities, and the population-level prevalence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ) in the spring, than temperatures in the fall or the presence of another host. As hypothesized, apparent survival at low (i.e., <25 cm) snowpack (0.22; confidence interval [CI] = 0.15–0.31) was lower than apparent survival at high snowpack (90.65; CI = 0.50–0.78). Our findings highlight the potential for local environmental factors, like snowpack, to influence disease and host persistence, and demonstrate the ecological complexity of disease effects on population demography in natural environments. This work further emphasizes the need for improved understanding of how climate change may influence the relationships among pathogens, hosts, and their environment for wild animal populations challenged by disease.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Informing amphibian conservation efforts with abundance-based metapopulation models

Science-based management strategies are needed to halt or reverse the global decline of amphibians. In many cases, sound management requires reliable models built using monitoring data. Historically, monitoring and statistical modeling efforts have focused on estimating occupancy using detection–nondetection data. Spatial occupancy models are useful for studying colonization–extinction dynamics, but richer insights can be gained from estimating abundance and density-dependent demographic rates. We developed an integrated abundance-based metapopulation model of the processes contributing to spatiotemporal variation in patch population density. We fit our model to a combination of detection–nondetection and count data from a 14-yr study of a reintroduced metapopulation of federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis). Pond-specific population growth rate was influenced by pond hydroperiod and frog density, such that permanent and semipermanent ponds with low densities of adult frogs experienced the highest annual population growth rates. Immigration rate declined as the distance among ponds increased. After reintroduction in 2003, metapopulation-level abundance increased and appeared to stabilize around 1300 adult frogs (95% CI = 1192–1471) by year 2015. Further, changes in metapopulation abundance were driven mostly by changes in abundance at a few ponds. These high-density populations, which would not have been identifiable with traditional occupancy-based metapopulation models, are likely especially important for species recovery in the area. Abundance-based metapopulation models can be widely applied to inform conservation efforts, by providing higher quality information needed to prioritize habitat patches for management and can be used to make more accurate predictions of metapopulation extinction risk.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2020

Amphibian population declines: 30 Years of progress in confronting a complex problem

In 1989, it dawned on participants at the First World Congress of Herpetology that observed declines in amphibian populations might actually be global in scope and unprecedented in severity. Three decades of research since then has produced an enormous increase in our knowledge of amphibian ecology and appreciation of the complexity of possible causes for amphibian population declines. In September 2019, 30 yr after the First World Congress ended, a day-long, international symposium on amphibian population declines was held at the Redpath Museum of McGill University in Montreal, Canada. Symposium participants drew upon the knowledge gained over three decades of study to look ahead with fresh ideas to address this vital aspect of the global decline of biodiversity. Despite tremendous progress over the past three decades there is still much about amphibian ecology, population biology, and pathology that remains unknown. Amphibian declines have turned out to be more complex than originally expected and the result of multiple possible causes acting across landscapes, among taxa, or between populations in ways that are not at all uniform. The papers in this special issue of Herpetologica , which stem from the symposium, explore much of our current understanding of amphibian declines and their causes.

Herpetologica↗

USGS2020

Co-occurence of Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis) with sunfish (Lepomis)

Invasive species are a major threat to the persistence of native species, particularly in systems where ephemeral aquatic habitats have been replaced by permanent water and predators, such as fish, have been introduced. Within the Altar Valley, Arizona, the invasive American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus (formerly Rana catesbeianus ), has been successfully eradicated to help recover Chiricahua leopard frogs ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ). However, other nonnative predators including sunfish ( Lepomis ) are present in some permanent water bodies. During four consecutive years (2014–2017), we detected both the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog and sunfish at one permanent water body in the Altar Valley. This suggests that despite the potential negative effect of predatory fish on amphibians, there may be conditions where the Chiricahua leopard frog can co-occur with this nonnative predator. A better understanding of rare situations of co-occurrence with nonnative predators may contribute to our understanding of why co-occurrence happens in some, but not all, systems and whether conservation strategies can be developed in situations where eradication of nonnative predators is infeasible.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Conservation of at‐risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two‐step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 yr of data on the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ) to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50‐yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <4% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 3.9% (95% CI 0–37%) by year 2066. Restoring six ponds by increasing their hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to <1% and greatly reduced uncertainty (95% CI 0–2%). Our results suggest that managers can mitigate the impacts of drought and environmental stochasticity on metapopulation viability by maintaining ponds that hold water throughout the year and keeping them free of invasive predators. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Conservation decisions under pressure: Lessons from an exercise in rapid response to wildlife disease

Novel outbreaks of emerging pathogens require rapid responses to enable successful mitigation. We simulated a 1‐day emergency meeting where experts were engaged to recommend mitigation strategies for a new outbreak of the amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans . Despite the inevitable uncertainty, experts suggested and discussed several possible strategies. However, their recommendations were undermined by imperfect initial definitions of the objectives and scope of management. This problem is likely to arise in most real‐world emergency situations. The exercise thus highlighted the importance of clearly defining the context, objectives, and spatial–temporal scale of mitigation decisions. Managers are commonly under pressure to act immediately. However, an iterative process in which experts and managers cooperate to clarify objectives and uncertainties, while collecting more information and devising mitigation strategies, may be slightly more time consuming but ultimately lead to better outcomes.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2019

Species-specific responses to wetland mitigation among amphibians in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Habitat loss and degradation are leading causes of biodiversity declines, therefore assessing the capacity of created mitigation wetlands to replace habitat for wildlife has become a management priority. We used single season occupancy models to compare the occurrence of larvae of four species of pond‐breeding amphibians in wetlands created for mitigation, wetlands impacted by road construction, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, United States. Created wetlands were shallow and had less aquatic vegetation and surface area than impacted and reference wetlands. Occupancy of barred tiger salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium ) and boreal chorus frog ( Pseudacris maculata ) larvae was similar across wetland types, whereas boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) occurred more often in created wetlands than reference and impacted wetlands. However, the majority of created wetlands (>80%) dried partially or completely before amphibian metamorphosis occurred in both years of our study, resulting in heavy mortality of larvae and, we suspect, little to no recruitment. Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ), which require emergent vegetation that is not common in newly created wetlands, occurred commonly in impacted and reference wetlands but were found in only one created wetland. Our results show that shallow created wetlands with little aquatic vegetation may be attractive breeding areas for some amphibians, but may result in high mortality and little recruitment if they fail to hold water for the entire larval period.

Yellowstone↗

USGS2019

Using full and partial unmixing algorithms to estimate the inundation extent of small, isolated stock ponds in an arid landscape

Many natural wetlands around the world have disappeared or been replaced, resulting in the dependence of many wildlife species on small, artificial earthen stock ponds. These ponds provide critical wildlife habitat, such that the accurate detection of water and assessment of inundation extent is required. We applied a full (linear spectral mixture analysis; LSMA) and partial (matched filtering; MF) spectral unmixing algorithm to a 2007 Landsat 5 and a 2014 Landsat 8 satellite image to determine the ability of a time-intensive (i.e., more spectral input; LSMA) vs. a more efficient (less spectral input; MF) spectral unmixing approach to detect and estimate surface water area of stock ponds in southern Arizona, USA and northern Sonora, Mexico. Spearman rank correlations ( r s ) between modeled and actual inundation areas less than a single Landsat pixel (< 900 m 2 ) were low for both techniques ( r s range = 0.22 to 0.62), but improved for inundation areas >900 m 2 ( r s range = 0.34 to 0.70). Our results demonstrate that the MF approach can model ranked inundation extent of known pond locations with results comparable to or better than LSMA, but further refinement is required for estimating absolute inundation areas and mapping wetlands <1 Landsat pixel.

Wetlands↗

USGS2019

Survival cost to relocation does not reduce population self‐sustainability in an amphibian

Relocations are increasingly popular among wildlife managers despite often low rates of relocation success in vertebrates. In this context, understanding the influence of extrinsic (e.g., relocation design, habitat characteristics) and intrinsic factors (e.g., age and sex) on demographic parameters, such as survival, that regulate the dynamics of relocated populations is critical to improve relocation protocols and better predict relocation success. We investigated survival in naturally established and relocated populations of yellow‐bellied toads ( Bombina variegata ), an amphibian that was nearly extinct in Belgium by the late 1980s. We quantified survival at three ontogenetic stages (juvenile, subadult, and adult) in the relocated population, the source population, and a control population. In the relocated population, we quantified survival in captive bred individuals and their locally born descendants. Then, using simulations, we examined how survival cost to relocation affects the self‐sustainability of the relocated population. We showed that survival at juvenile and subadult stages was relatively similar in all populations. In contrast, relocated adult survival was lower than adult survival in the source and control populations. Despite this, offspring of relocated animals (the next generation, regardless of life stage) survived at similar rates to individuals in the source and control populations. Simulations revealed that the relocated population was self‐sustaining under different scenarios and that the fate (e.g., stability or increase) of the simulated populations was highly dependent on the fecundity of relocated adults and their offspring. To summarize, our results indicate that survival in relocated individuals is lower than in non‐relocated individuals but that this cost (i.e., reduced survival) disappears in the second generation. A finer understanding of how relocation affects demographic processes is an important step in improving relocation success of amphibians and other animals.

Northern France and Belgium↗

USGS2019

Aquatic macroinvertebrate community responses to wetland mitigation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

1. Wetlands are critical components of freshwater biodiversity and provide ecosystem services, but human activities have resulted in large-scale loss of these habitats across the globe. To offset this loss, mitigation wetlands are frequently constructed, but their ability to replicate the functions of natural wetlands remains uncertain. Further, monitoring of mitigation wetlands is limited and often focused exclusively on vegetation and physical characteristics. 2. Wetland fauna are assumed to be present if suitable habitat restoration is achieved, but this assumption is rarely tested. We used the macroinvertebrate community as a proxy for wetland function to compare created mitigation wetlands, natural wetlands impacted but not destroyed by road construction activity, and unimpacted reference wetlands along a highway corridor in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Unlike most other studies of invertebrate communities in created wetlands which have occurred in warm climates, our study area has a cold temperate climate with short growing seasons. 3. We estimated macroinvertebrate taxonomic richness and used linear models to test for effects of wetland design features (wetland age, isolation, depth, vegetation, size, and pH) on invertebrate richness. We also used non-metric multidimensional scaling to examine differences in community composition among wetland types and used indicator species analysis to determine which taxa were causing observed differences. 4. Taxonomic richness of macroinvertebrates was lower in created wetlands than impacted or reference wetlands, whereas richness was similar in impacted and reference wetlands. Wetland age was positively correlated with taxonomic richness. The amount of aquatic vegetation in wetlands had the greatest influence on taxonomic richness, so that recently created wetlands with little vegetation had the simplest invertebrate communities. Community composition of invertebrates in created wetlands also differed from community composition in reference and impacted wetlands. Most notably, created wetlands lacked some passive dispersers that were common in other wetland types, although we found no relationship between taxonomic richness and wetland isolation. 5. Overall, constructed wetlands had diminished and altered macroinvertebrate communities relative to reference and impacted wetlands, suggesting that longer times may be required for wetland mitigation projects in cold temperate climates to attain full functionality.

Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Factors influencing anuran wetland occupancy in an agricultural landscape

Habitat disturbance is an important cause of global amphibian declines, with especially strong effects in areas of high agricultural use. Determining the influence of site characteristics on amphibian presence and success is vital to developing effective conservation strategies. We used occupancy analysis to estimate presence of four anuran species at wetlands in northern Iowa as a function of eight environmental covariates hypothesized to affect occupancy: fish and salamander abundance, invertebrate density, aquatic vegetative cover, wetland area, atrazine concentration in water, surrounding agricultural land use, and an overall wetland health score (wetland condition index [WCI]). We surveyed 27 wetlands multiple times in 2015 and 2016. Leopard Frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ) and American Toads ( Anaxyrus americanus ) were observed at 100% of the sites, Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ) at 96%, and Gray Treefrogs ( Hyla spp.) at 81%. Wetland site occupancy for all species in our study ranged from 0.23 ( Hyla spp. tadpoles) to 0.95 ( L. pipiens adults), indicating that agricultural wetlands can provide refuge or habitat for amphibians. Fish abundance, percentage of cropland cover within 500 m of the wetland, and salamander abundance were among the variables best supported by our models although their estimated effects were weak. Wetland area, atrazine concentration, vegetative cover, and WCI also influenced occupancy probability, but for only a small number of species and life stages. The direction of predicted effects varied by species and life stage. Despite only weak evidence that the environmental factors we measured influenced anuran occupancy, our results provide insights for managers seeking to understand how amphibians use landscapes modified by agriculture.

Iowa↗

USGS2019

Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene

Research is necessary to identify patterns in nature, to understand how a system functions, and to make predictions about the future state of an ecosystem. Applied research in conservation biology can identify effective strategies to maintain biodiversity, though many papers end with the conclusion that more research is needed. However, more research does not necessarily lead to solutions. We use the ongoing global decline of amphibians as a salient example to highlight limitations in current conservation research, and to focus on finding solutions which are directly relevant for conservation. While research has been conducted since declines were first detected in the 1990s, outside a few specific examples, little progress in conservation has been achieved. We suggest that the case of amphibian declines is relevant to conservation science in general, as the current paradigm for conservation is that management is planned after research is completed; research and management are not effectively (and not directly) connected. This disconnect illustrates the knowledge-action divide which has been identified as a serious deficiency in conservation. Accordingly, we use this introductory paper to the Special Issue (Amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene: Progress and challenges) to describe amphibians as a conservation dilemma, and to make the case for a different, more pragmatic, and more solutions-focused view of conservation research.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2019

Effect of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) on apparent survival of frogs and toads in the western USA

Despite increasing interest in determining the population-level effects of emerging infectious diseases on wildlife, estimating effects of disease on survival rates remains difficult. Even for a well-studied disease such as amphibian chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]), there are few estimates of how survival of wild hosts is affected. We applied hierarchical models to long-term capture-mark-recapture data (mean = 10.6 yrs, range = 6–15 yrs) from >5500 uniquely-marked individuals to estimate the effect of Bd on apparent survival of four threatened or endangered ranid frog species ( Rana draytonii , R. muscosa , R. pretiosa , R. sierrae ) at 14 study sites in California and Oregon (USA) and one bufonid toad ( Anaxyrus boreas ) at two study sites in Wyoming and Montana. Our models indicated that the presence of Bd on an individual reduced apparent survival of ranid frogs by ~6–15% depending on species and sex. The estimated difference between toads with and without Bd was 19% for the Montana population and 55% for the Wyoming population; however, the 95% Credible Interval of these estimates included zero. These results provide evidence for negative effects of Bd on survival in wild populations even in the absence of obvious die-offs. Determining what factors influence the magnitude of the effects of Bd on wildlife populations is an important next step toward identifying management actions. These estimates of Bd effects are important for understanding the extent and severity of disease, whether disease effects have changed over time, and for informing management actions.

California, Montana, Oregon, Wyoming↗