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Erin Bessette-Kirton

Publications and source records attributed to Erin Bessette-Kirton.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2019

The 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche, Alaska: Deposit structures and emplacement dynamics

Supraglacial landslides result from the catastrophic failure of periglacial rock slopes and deposit large volumes of rock and ice onto the glacier surface. The most remarkable features of these landslides are their prominent long flowbands and a high mobility that exceeds that of their counterparts in other environments. Based on field surveys, high-resolution digital elevation models, and continuous seismic data, we show that the emplacement dynamics of the 2016 rock avalanche on Lamplugh Glacier were characterized by two distinct stages. During the first stage, the debris traveled about 5 km from the base of the slope. Clear long-period seismic signals during this stage record strong interactions of the rock avalanche debris with the ground, suggesting dynamic processes such as grain collisions and fragmentation. The second stage was essentially aseismic at long periods and dominated by low-friction sliding at slow deceleration rates. A higher density of flowbands and increased entrainment of snow from the runout path characterize the morphology of this second-stage distal deposition. Around the margins, lobes are offset by up to 400 m along major strike-slip faults, whereas within individual lobes, offsets between flowbands are much less pronounced (0 to < 10 m). The two-stage emplacement model may explain the higher apparent mobility of supraglacial landslides.

Alaska↗
USGS2019

Landslides triggered by Hurricane Maria: Assessment of an extreme event in Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria hit the island of Puerto Rico on 20 September 2017 and triggered more than 40,000 landslides in at least three-fourths of Puerto Rico’s 78 municipalities. The number of landslides that occurred during this event was two orders of magnitude greater than those reported from previous hurricanes. Landslide source areas were commonly limited to surficial soils but also extended into underlying saprolite and bedrock. Slope failures occurred before, during, and after flooding, and many transitioned into long runout debris flows. Steep slopes in hilly and mountainous regions were particularly impacted by landslides due to antecedent soil moisture levels that were 11%–13% higher than average and rainfall totals of at least 250 mm within a 48 h period. High landslide densities were especially widespread across some geologic formations (e.g., granodiorite of the Utuado batholith); however, bedrock geology alone did not determine the location and distribution of landslides caused by Hurricane Maria. While rainfall data collected during Hurricane Maria were inconsistent, satellite-based soil moisture data were correlated with the distribution of landslides. In the future, the use of soil moisture data could enable assessments of regional landslide susceptibility prior to hurricanes or extreme precipitation events.

GSA Today↗
USGS2019

A 4000-year history of debris flows in north-central Washington State, U.S.A.: Preliminary results from trenching and surficial geologic mapping at the Pope Creek fan

Long-term records of the magnitude and frequency of debris flows on fans are rare, but such records provide critical information needed for debris-flow hazard and risk assessments. This study explores the history of debris flows on a fan with seasonally inhabited cabins at Pope Creek along the Entiat River about 48 km upstream from the town of Entiat, Washington. Motivation for this study was provided by the Duncan Fire, a wildfire which burned the Pope Creek basin in 2014 and resulted in debris flows and water-dominated floods on the fan between August 2014 and October 2016. We excavated and mapped seven 6-m long (2.4 m deep) trenches, mapped deposits on the surface of the fan, and constrained the ages of deposits using radiocarbon dating and the computer program OxCal. Preliminary results indicate that there have been at least 10 debris-flow events (DFEs) since 4000 cal yr BP. The mean recurrence interval between events was 433 +/-44 years, but intervals range from 724 to 20 years. The four most recent events have the shortest recurrence intervals. The largest event had an estimated sediment volume of 97,000 m3 and occurred at about 285 cal yr BP (1665 AD) during the Little Ice Age. The most recent debris-flow event that was triggered by rainstorms following the Duncan Fire was about 8x smaller than the largest event. These results may indicate that the largest DFE was triggered by an exceptional meteorological event that occurred during a cool, wet time, and that smaller DFEs were triggered by less exceptional meteorological events that occurred following wildfires.

Washington↗
USGS2019

An evaluation of debris-flow runout model accuracy and complexity in Montecito, CA: Towards a framework for regional inundation-hazard forecasting

Numerous debris-flow inundation models have been applied retroactively to noteworthy events around the world. While such studies can be useful in identifying controlling factors, calibrating model parameters, and assessing future hazards in specific study areas, model parameters tailored to individual events can be difficult to apply regionally. The advancement of debris-flow modeling applications from post-event model validation of individual case studies to pre-event forecasting that can be implemented rapidly and at regional scales is critical considering the fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage caused by debris flows that inundated a developed fan in Montecito, CA following heavy rain on 9 January 2018. In this study, we evaluated the tradeoffs between model accuracy and simplicity in the context of the need for a framework that can be used in conjunction with initiation models and storm predictions for rapid, large-scale inundation hazard mapping as a component of post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments. We used numerical (FLO-2D) and empirical (LAHARZ) models to simulate debris flows from one of the drainages upstream of Montecito that was burned in the Thomas Fire in December 2017 and compared model results with field observations and building damage assessments collected immediately following the event. Initial testing demonstrated that LAHARZ can simulate channelized flow but is not able to replicate flow bifurcations or avulsions, which are critical aspects of flows travelling over populated fans. FLO-2D simulations matched well with observed inundation area data, but variably under and overpredicted inundation height, deposit depth, and velocity. We found that FLO-2D and LAHARZ had true positive rates of 0.84 and 0.6, respectively, and both models had similar false positive rates (0.3 and 0.35, respectively). Our model evaluation framework allowed us to compare model results with detailed field observations and will serve as a platform for more extensive model testing in the future.

California↗
USGS2018

Using stereo satellite imagery to account for ablation, entrainment, and compaction in volume calculations for rock avalanches on Glaciers: Application to the 2016 Lamplugh Rock Avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

The use of preevent and postevent digital elevation models (DEMs) to estimate the volume of rock avalanches on glaciers is complicated by ablation of ice before and after the rock avalanche, scour of material during rock avalanche emplacement, and postevent ablation and compaction of the rock avalanche deposit. We present a model to account for these processes in volume estimates of rock avalanches on glaciers. We applied our model by calculating the volume of the 28 June 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. We derived preevent and postevent 2‐m resolution DEMs from WorldView satellite stereo imagery. Using data from DEM differencing, we reconstructed the rock avalanche and adjacent surfaces at the time of occurrence by accounting for elevation changes due to ablation and scour of the ice surface, and postevent deposit changes. We accounted for uncertainties in our DEMs through precise coregistration and an assessment of relative elevation accuracy in bedrock control areas. The rock avalanche initially displaced 51.7 ± 1.5 Mm3 of intact rock and then scoured and entrained 13.2 ± 2.2 Mm3 of snow and ice during emplacement. We calculated the total deposit volume to be 69.9 ± 7.9 Mm3. Volume estimates that did not account for topographic changes due to ablation, scour, and compaction underestimated the deposit volume by 31.0–46.8 Mm3. Our model provides an improved framework for estimating uncertainties affecting rock avalanche volume measurements in glacial environments. These improvements can contribute to advances in the understanding of rock avalanche hazards and dynamics.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Increasing rock-avalanche size and mobility in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska detected from 1984 to 2016 Landsat imagery

In the USA, climate change is expected to have an adverse impact on slope stability in Alaska. However, to date, there has been limited work done in Alaska to assess if changes in slope stability are occurring. To address this issue, we used 30-m Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2016 to establish an inventory of 24 rock avalanches in a 5000-km 2 area of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeast Alaska. A search of available earthquake catalogs revealed that none of the avalanches were triggered by earthquakes. Analyses of rock-avalanche magnitude, mobility, and frequency reveal a cluster of large (areas ranging from 5.5 to 22.2 km 2 ), highly mobile (height/length < 0.3) rock avalanches that occurred from June 2012 through June 2016 (near the end of the 33-year period of record). These rock avalanches began about 2 years after the long-term trend in mean annual maximum air temperature may have exceeded 0 °C. Possibly more important, most of these rock avalanches occurred during a multiple-year period of record-breaking warm winter and spring air temperatures. These observations suggested to us that rock avalanches in the study area may be becoming larger because of rock-permafrost degradation. However, other factors, such as accumulating elastic strain, glacial thinning, and increased precipitation, may also play an important role in preconditioning slopes for failure during periods of warm temperatures.

Alaska↗