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Erika E. Lentz

Publications and source records attributed to Erika E. Lentz.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate. We refine a preliminary Bayesian Network by 1) increasing model experience through additional observations, 2) including anthropogenic modification history, and 3) replacing parameterized wave impact values with maximum run-up elevation. Further, we develop and train a pair of generalized models with an additional dataset encompassing a different storm event, which expands the observations beyond our hindcast objective. We compare the skill of the generalized models against the Nor'Ida specific model formulation, balancing the reduced skill with an expectation of increased transferability. Results of Nor'Ida hindcasts ranged in skill from 0.37 to 0.51 and accuracy of 65.0 to 81.9%.

New York↗
USGS2014

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Geologic cross section D-D' through the Appalachian basin from the Findlay arch, Sandusky County, Ohio, to the Valley and Ridge province, Hardy County, West Virginia

This chapter is a re-release of U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3067, of the same title, by Ryder and others (2009). For this chapter, two appendixes have been added that do not appear with the original version. Appendix A provides Log ASCII Standard (LAS) files for each drill hole along cross-section D-D' ; they are text files which encode gamma-ray, neutron, density, and other logs that can be used by most well-logging software. Appendix B provides graphic well-log traces and lithologic descriptions with formation tops from each drill hole.

Appalachian basin↗
USGS2014

In search of a Silurian total petroleum system in the Appalachian basin of New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia

Oil and gas fields in Silurian carbonate and sandstone reservoirs in the Appalachian basin probably originated from one or more of the following source rocks: (1) Upper Ordovician Utica Shale, (2) Middle to Upper Devonian black shale, and (3) Lower to Upper Silurian shale and carbonate units. In this reconnaissance study, selected Silurian shale and carbonate rocks in the subsurface of New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia were analyzed for total organic carbon (TOC) content and Rock-Eval parameters to evaluate whether or not a Silurian total petroleum system exists in the Appalachian basin. A total of 308 samples were collected and analyzed for this investigation. Dark-gray to black shale and argillaceous carbonate intervals in the Salina Group (and equivalent units), Cabot Head Shale, Rochester Shale, Rose Hill Formation, Lockport Dolomite (or Group), and McKenzie Limestone (or Member) were prioritized for sampling and analysis. Twenty nine of the 308 samples analyzed had TOC values of 0.50 or greater that qualify them as a petroleum source rock. Also, 24 of the 29 samples (with TOC values of 0.50 or greater) had TOC values between 0.50 and less than 1.00 weight percent. Only 5 samples in the dataset are classified as good to very good source rocks (TOC values of 1.00 to 3.35 weight percent). The majority (n=18) of the 29 samples of potential source rocks with a TOC value of 0.5 or greater are located in the Upper Silurian Salina Group and equivalent Wills Creek Formation. Moreover, all of the good to very good source rocks are located in the Salina Group and Wills Creek Formation in southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The remainder (n=11) of the 29 potential source rocks (TOC values of 0.50 to less than 1.00 weight percent) are located in the Lower Silurian Cabot Head Shale (n=2), Rochester Shale (n=6), Rose Hill Formation (n=1), and Lower to Upper Silurian Lockport Dolomite (n=2). These source rocks of secondary importance are widely distributed across eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although the TOC analyses in this study indicate that good to very good source rocks are present in the Salina Group and Wills Creek Formation of southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia, data are insufficient to propose a new Silurian total petroleum system in the Appalachian basin. However, the analytical results of this investigation are encouraging enough to undertake more systematic studies of the source rock potential of the Salina Group, Wills Creek Formation, and perhaps the Tonoloway Formation (Limestone) and McKenzie Limestone (or Member).

New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗
USGS2014

Introduction to selected references on fossil fuels of the central and southern Appalachian basin

The Appalachian basin contains abundant coal and petroleum resources that have been studied and extracted for at least 150 years. In this volume, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe the geologic framework and geochemical character of the fossil-fuel resources of the central and southern Appalachian basin. Separate subchapters (some previously published) contain geologic cross sections; seismic profiles; burial history models; assessments of Carboniferous coalbed methane and Devonian shale gas; distribution information for oil, gas, and coal fields; data on the geochemistry of natural gas and oil; and the fossil-fuel production history of the basin. Although each chapter and subchapter includes references cited, many historical or other important references on Appalachian basin and global fossil-fuel science were omitted because they were not directly applicable to the chapters.

Appalachian basin↗
USGS2013

Improving understanding of near-term barrier island evolution through multi-decadal assessment of morphologic change

Observed morphodynamic changes over multiple decades were coupled with storm-driven run-up characteristics at Fire Island, New York, to explore the influence of wave processes relative to the impacts of other coastal change drivers on the near-term evolution of the barrier island. Historical topography was generated from digital stereo-photogrammetry and compared with more recent lidar surveys to quantify near-term (decadal) morphodynamic changes to the beach and primary dune system between the years 1969, 1999, and 2009. Notably increased profile volumes were observed along the entirety of the island in 1999, and likely provide the eolian source for the steady dune crest progradation observed over the relatively quiescent decade that followed. Persistent patterns of erosion and accretion over 10-, 30-, and 40-year intervals are attributable to variations in island morphology, human activity, and variations in offshore bathymetry and island orientation that influence the wave energy reaching the coast. Areas of documented long-term historical inlet formation and extensive bayside marsh development show substantial landward translation of the dune–beach profile over the near-term period of this study. Correlations among areas predicted to overwash, observed elevation changes of the dune crestline, and observed instances of overwash in undeveloped segments of the barrier island verify that overwash locations can be accurately predicted in undeveloped segments of coast. In fact, an assessment of 2012 aerial imagery collected after Hurricane Sandy confirms that overwash occurred at the majority of near-term locations persistently predicted to overwash. In addition to the storm wave climate, factors related to variations within the geologic framework which in turn influence island orientation, offshore slope, and sediment supply impact island behavior on near-term timescales.

New York↗
USGS2013

Geologic evidence for onshore sediment transport from the inner continental shelf: Fire Island, New York

Sediment budget analyses along the south shore of Fire Island, New York, have been conducted and debated in the scientific and coastal engineering literature for decades. It is well documented that a primary component of sediment transport in this system is directed alongshore from E to W, but discrepancies in volumetric sediment budget calculations remain. An additional quantity of sand, averaging about 200,000 m 3 /y is required to explain the growth of the western segment of the barrier island, a prograding spit. Littoral sediment derived from updrift erosion of the coast, addition of beach nourishment fill, and onshore transport of inner continental shelf, shoreface sediments, or both have all been proposed as potential sources of the additional sediment needed to balance the sediment budget deficit. Analysis of high-resolution seafloor mapping data collected in 2011, including seismic reflection profiles and inteferometric sonar acoustic backscatter and swath bathymetry; comparison with seafloor mapping data collected in 1996–1997; and shoreline change analysis from 1933 to 2011 support previous suggestions that the inner-shelf Holocene sedimentary deposit is a likely source to resolve this sediment budget discrepancy.

New York↗
USGS2012

Inner shelf morphologic controls on the dynamics of the beach and bar system, Fire Island, New York

The mechanism of sediment exchange between offshore sand ridges and the beach at Fire Island, New York is largely unknown. However, recent evidence from repeat nearshore bathymetry surveys, coupled with the complex but consistent bar morphology and patterns of shoreline change demonstrate that there is a feedback occurring between the regional geologic framework and modern processes. Analysis of bathymetric survey data provides direct confirmation that the offshore ridges are connected to the shoreface and are spatially persistent. The fixed nature of the nearshore morphology is further supported by time series camera data that indicate persistent bars with breaks that re-form in the same locations. A long-term time series of shoreline change shows distinct zones of erosion and accretion that are pervasive over time scales greater than a half-century, and their length-scales are similar to the spacing of the offshore ridge-trough system. The first-order geologic framework is responsible for the existence and locations of the ridges and troughs, which then influence the morphodynamics of the beach and bar system.

New York↗
USGS2012

The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change

This study demonstrates the applicability of a Bayesian probabilistic model as an effective tool in predicting post-storm beach changes along sandy coastlines. Volume change and net shoreline movement are modeled for two study sites at Fire Island, New York in response to two extratropical storms in 2007 and 2009. Both study areas include modified areas adjacent to unmodified areas in morphologically different segments of coast. Predicted outcomes are evaluated against observed changes to test model accuracy and uncertainty along 163 cross-shore transects. Results show strong agreement in the cross validation of predictions vs. observations, with 70-82% accuracies reported. Although no consistent spatial pattern in inaccurate predictions could be determined, the highest prediction uncertainties appeared in locations that had been recently replenished. Further testing and model refinement are needed; however, these initial results show that Bayesian networks have the potential to serve as important decision-support tools in forecasting coastal change.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2012

Geologic cross section C-C' through the Appalachian basin from Erie County, north-central Ohio, to the Valley and Ridge province, Bedford County, south-central Pennsylvania

Geologic cross section C-C' is the third in a series of cross sections constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to document and improve understanding of the geologic framework and petroleum systems of the Appalachian basin. Cross section C-C' provides a regional view of the structural and stratigraphic framework of the Appalachian basin from north-central Ohio to the Valley and Ridge province in south-central Pennsylvania, a distance of approximately 260 miles (mi). This cross section is a companion to cross sections E-E' and D-D' that are located about 50 to 125 mi and 25 to 50 mi, respectively, to the southwest. Cross section C-C' contains much information that is useful for evaluating energy resources in the Appalachian basin. Although specific petroleum systems are not identified on the cross section, many of their key elements (such as source rocks, reservoir rocks, seals, and traps) can be inferred from lithologic units, unconformities, and geologic structures shown on the cross section. Other aspects of petroleum systems (such as the timing of petroleum generation and preferred migration pathways) may be evaluated by burial history, thermal history, and fluid flow models based on what is shown on the cross section. Cross section C-C' also provides a general framework (stratigraphic units and general rock types) for the coal-bearing section, although the cross section lacks the detail to illustrate key elements of coal systems (such as paleoclimate, coal quality, and coal rank). In addition, cross section C-C' may be used as a reconnaissance tool to identify plausible geologic structures and strata for the subsurface storage of liquid waste or for the sequestration of carbon dioxide.

Kentucky;Maryl;Ohio;Pennsylvania;Tennessee;Virgini↗
USGS2011

Geologic framework influences on the geomorphology of an anthropogenically modified barrier island: Assessment of dune/beach changes at Fire Island, New York

Antecedent geology plays a crucial role in determining the inner-shelf, nearshore, and onshore geomorphology observed in coastal systems. However, the influence of the geologic framework on a system is difficult to extract when evaluating responses to changes due to storms and anthropogenic modifications, and few studies have quantified the potential for these influences in dune/beach environments. This study evaluates topographic change to the dune/beach system at Fire Island, New York over a ten year period (1998-2008) at two sites representing eastern and western reaches of the island where morphology has been shown to vary. The sites are situated along swaths of coast eroding differentially and where the inner shelf geologic framework differs substantially. Fewer large storms occurred in the first half of the study period, compared with the later part of the study period which includes several severe and prolonged extratropical storms. Additionally, a major beach replenishment project was conducted at one of the study sites. Topographic data from LiDAR and RTK GPS surveys are used to construct high-resolution 3D surfaces, which are used to determine volumetric change and to extract 2D alongshore features and profiles for analysis. The study sites help to further characterize morphologic differences between eastern and western reaches of the island. The western site displays higher sand volumes, lower dunes, and a lower gradient profile slope when compared with the eastern site. In addition to these fundamental morphologic differences, the two sites also differ significantly in their response to coastal storms and in the fact that their replenishment histories are different. The replenished areas show reduced vulnerability to storms through minimal volume loss and shoreline accretion that should be considered when evaluating the response of replenished areas to episodic events. We propose that site-specific differences evident throughout the study period can be linked to alongshore variations in the framework geology of the system. Anthropogenic modifications may have intensified differences already inherent in the system.

New York↗
USGS2010

A review of sediment budget imbalances along Fire Island, New York: Can nearshore geologic framework and patterns of shoreline change explain the deficit?

Sediment budget analyses conducted for annual to decadal timescales report variable magnitudes of littoral transport along the south shore of Long Island, New York. It is well documented that the primary transport component is directed alongshore from east to west, but relatively little information has been reported concerning the directions or magnitudes of cross-shore components. Our review of budget calculations for the Fire Island coastal compartment (between Moriches and Fire Island Inlets) indicates an average deficit of 217,700 m3/y. Updrift shoreline erosion, redistribution of nourishment fills, and reworking of inner-shelf deposits have been proposed as the potential sources of additional sediment needed to rectify budget residuals. Each of these sources is probably relevant over various spatial and temporal scales, but previous studies of sediment texture and provenance, inner-shelf geologic mapping, and beach profile comparison indicate that reworking of inner-shelf deposits is the source most likely to resolve budget discrepancies over the broadest scales. This suggests that an onshore component of sediment transport is likely more important along Fire Island than previously thought. Our discussion focuses on relations between geomorphology, inner-shelf geologic framework, and historic shoreline change along Fire Island and the potential pathways by which reworked, inner-shelf sediments are likely transported toward the shoreline.

Journal of Coastal Research↗
USGS2009

Geologic Cross Section D-D' Through the Appalachian Basin from the Findlay Arch, Sandusky County, Ohio, to the Valley and Ridge Province, Hardy County, West Virginia

Geologic cross section D-D' is the second in a series of cross sections constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey to document and improve understanding of the geologic framework and petroleum systems of the Appalachian basin. Cross section D-D' provides a regional view of the structural and stratigraphic framework of the Appalachian basin from the Findlay arch in northwestern Ohio to the Valley and Ridge province in eastern West Virginia, a distance of approximately 290 miles. The information shown on the cross section is based on geological and geophysical data from 13 deep drill holes, several of which penetrate the Paleozoic sedimentary rocks of the basin and bottom in Mesoproterozoic (Grenville-age) crystalline basement rocks. This cross section is a companion to cross section E-E' (Ryder and others, 2008) that is located about 25 to 50 mi to the southwest. Although specific petroleum systems in the Appalachian basin are not identified on the cross section, many of their key elements (such as source rocks, reservoir rocks, seals, and traps) can be inferred from lithologic units, unconformities, and geologic structures shown on the cross section. Other aspects of petroleum systems (such as the timing of petroleum generation and preferred migration pathways) may be evaluated by burial history, thermal history, and fluid flow models based on information shown on the cross section. Cross section D-D' lacks the detail to illustrate key elements of coal systems (such as paleoclimate, coal quality, and coal rank), but it does provide a general geologic framework (stratigraphic units and general rock types) for the coal-bearing section. Also, cross section D-D' may be used as a reconnaissance tool to identify plausible geologic structures and strata for the subsurface storage of liquid waste or for the sequestration of carbon dioxide.

Scientific Investigations Map↗