Geology topics

Eric T. Reed

Publications and source records attributed to Eric T. Reed.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Spring weather influences breeding propensity, the most important productivity component for Arctic-nesting lesser snow geese

Animal reproduction is composed of several stages, which collectively determine overall productivity. Yet, it is not fully understood how different productivity components contribute to population change. To bridge this gap, we leveraged integrated population modelling and transient life-table response experiments, together with population-level data on lesser snow geese ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, from 1970 to 2022. We assessed contributions of breeding propensity, clutch size, nest success, egg survival, hatching success and pre-fledging survival to population change, and tested hypotheses about the effects of environmental drivers and density dependence on different components. Breeding propensity contributed the most to variation in population growth, followed by nest success. These two components were negatively affected by the timing of snow melt. We found no overall deleterious effects of climate change on productivity. Density dependence had a positive effect on multiple productivity components, likely through predator swamping. Our results show the importance of breeding propensity to the population dynamics of this long-lived animal, which is notable because this productivity component is often overlooked. Our results also demonstrate that the effects of environmental conditions and density dependence can differ among animal populations of different sizes, locations and life histories.

Wrangel Island↗

USGS2025

Environmental drivers of productivity explain population patterns of an Arctic-nesting goose across a half-century

Joint estimation of demographic rates and population size has become an essential tool in ecology because it enables evaluating mechanisms for population change and testing hypotheses about drivers of demography in a single modeling framework. This approach provides a comprehensive perspective on population dynamics and how animal populations will respond to global pressures in future years. However, long-term data for such analyses are often limited in quantity and quality. We developed an integrated population model combining data on demography and population size from nine different sources to understand the population ecology of the lesser snow goose ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) in the Pacific Flyway in North America from 1970 to 2022. We divided the flyway population into Wrangel Island and Western Arctic subpopulations and assessed demographic mechanisms for population change and environmental and anthropogenic drivers that influenced demography. During 1970–2022, the estimated spring population of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway increased from ~300,000 to ~2,300,000. Short-term changes in population growth rate were primarily driven by changes in productivity in the Western Arctic and productivity and immigration in Wrangel Island. Changes in hunting and natural mortality had less influence on short-term but likely contributed to the pronounced long-term population growth. Early snowmelt positively influenced per capita productivity in both regions, and warm, rainy weather during the non-breeding season was associated with high per capita productivity in the Western Arctic. In the Western Arctic, per capita productivity was negatively associated with population size, and adult natural mortality was positively associated with population size, indicating density-dependent regulation in this subpopulation. In Wrangel Island, warm weather in early fall decreased juvenile natural mortality. Our results demonstrate that per capita productivity and immigration, rather than adult survival, were the primary mechanisms of short-term population change in this long-lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental conditions and density-dependent effects can impact population dynamics more than harvest, even for a long-lived, commonly harvested species. We demonstrate that a warming climate can have multiple effects on demography, emphasizing the importance of assessing a variety of spatial and temporal factors when predicting how populations might respond to large-scale environmental changes. This emphasizes the importance of conservation plans that consider these environmental drivers, although this may complicate direct management of such populations.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2024

Mitigating risk: Predicting H5N1 avian influenza spread with an empirical model of bird movement

Understanding timing and distribution of virus spread is critical to global commercial and wildlife biosecurity management. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) global panzootic, affecting ~600 bird and mammal species globally and over 83 million birds across North America (Dec 2023), poses a serious global threat to animals and public health. We combined a large, long-term waterfowl GPS tracking dataset (16 species) with on-ground disease surveillance data (county-level HPAIv detections) to create a novel empirical model that evaluated spatiotemporal exposure and predicted future spread and potential arrival of HPAIv via GPS tracked migratory waterfowl through 2022. Our model was effective for wild waterfowl, but predictions lagged HPAIv detections in poultry facilities and among some highly impacted non-migratory species. Our results offer critical advance warning for applied biosecurity management and planning and demonstrate the importance and utility of extensive multi-species tracking to highlight potential high-risk disease spread locations and more effectively manage outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of breeding distribution and chronology of North American scoters

North America's scoter species are poorly monitored relative to other waterfowl. Black Melanitta americana , surf M. perspicillata , and white-winged M. deglandi scoter abundance and trend estimates are thus uncertain in many parts of these species' ranges. The most extensive source of waterfowl abundance and distribution data in North America is the Waterfowl breeding population and habitat survey (WBPHS). Although the WBPHS effectively monitors most species, both its timing and geographic coverage may preclude accurate scoter monitoring. Therefore, our goal was to better define when and where scoters breed to help interpret survey results and optimize potential supplemental survey efforts for scoters. We integrated satellite telemetry tracking data from scoters marked at multiple molting, staging, breeding, and wintering areas along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to quantify continent-wide breeding chronology and distribution. We also examined possible drivers of variation in timing of arrival, length of stay, and departure at nesting locations. We documented a northwest to southeast distribution of estimated breeding sites across Alaska and Canada. On average, scoters arrived at nest sites on 1 June. Surf scoters and Pacific black scoters arrived earliest and departed earliest. Pacific-wintering black and white-winged scoters began breeding earlier than Atlantic-wintering birds. Additionally, birds arrived at nesting locations earlier in years with earlier snowmelt, and later snowmelt reduced lengths of stay for males. Breeding chronology also varied by age group, with adults arriving earlier than subadults. Our study is the first to comprehensively describe spatial variation in timing of breeding of both Atlantic and Pacific populations of all three scoter species across North America. Our results increase our understanding of how current surveys enumerate scoters and will inform possible supplemental efforts to improve continental monitoring of scoter populations.

Wildlife Biology↗

USGS2023

Baiting and banding: Expert opinion on how bait trapping may influence the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) among dabbling ducks

A Eurasian lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of the clade 2.3.4.4b (Goose/Guangdong lineage) was detected in migratory bird populations in North America in December 2021, and it, along with its reassortants, have since caused wild and domestic bird outbreaks across the continent. Relative to previous outbreaks, HPAIV cases among wild birds in 2022 exhibited wider geographic extent within North America and higher levels of mortality, suggesting the potential for population-level impacts. Given the possible conservation implications of HPAIV in wild birds, natural resource managers have sought guidance on actions that may mitigate negative effects of disease among North American bird populations, including modification of existing management practices. Banding of waterfowl is a critical tool for population management for several harvested species in North America, but some banding techniques, such as bait trapping, can lead to increased congregation of waterfowl, potentially altering HPAIV transmission. We used an expert opinion exercise to assess how bait trapping of dabbling ducks in Canada may influence HPAIV transmission and wild bird health. The expert group found that it is moderately likely that bait trapping of dabbling ducks in wetlands will significantly increase the transmission of HPAIV among individual ducks, but there is a low probability that this will result in significant population-level effects on North American dabbling ducks. Considering the lack of empirical work studying how capture and handling methods may change transmission of HPAIV among waterfowl, as well as the importance of bait trapping for waterfowl management in North America, future work should focus on filling knowledge gaps pertaining to the influence of baiting on HPAIV occurrence to better inform banding procedures and management decision making.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2019

Visualizing populations of North American sea ducks: Maps to guide research and management planning

North American sea ducks generally breed in mid- to northern-latitude regions and nearly all rely upon marine habitats for much of their annual cycle. Most sea duck species remained poorly studied until the 1990s when declines were noted in several species and populations. Subsequent research, much of which was funded by the Sea Duck Joint Venture, began in the late 1990s with an emphasis on defining use areas throughout the annual cycle, migration patterns, and determining if there were distinct populations, within species, across North America. These studies relied largely upon satellite telemetry information to identify winter, breeding, and molting areas of sea ducks. New information from band recovery and genetic markers was added, contributing to hypotheses and initial conclusions about population delineation. Information on population units across North America is critical for identifying appropriate scales for evaluating population status and trends through annual monitoring surveys, harvest assessments, habitat protection and measuring effectiveness of management applications. Previous descriptions of population segments were for single species or smaller groups of similar species. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the general distribution and population segments of 13 species of sea ducks in North America by comparing range maps to long-term band recovery, genetic, and satellite telemetry data to inform population delineation assessments and future research. These comparisons show a high degree of consistency in population patterns for most species across the independent data types. These maps provide a foundation for developing new hypothesis-driven research to address remaining knowledge gaps and questions about population differentiation, annual cycle distribution, habitat use, and harvest assessment.

North America↗

USGS2006

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

The Auk↗