Geology topics

Eric A. Rexstad

Publications and source records attributed to Eric A. Rexstad.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2005

Evaluation of wolf density estimation from radiotelemetry data

Density estimation of wolves ( Canis lupus ) requires a count of individuals and an estimate of the area those individuals inhabit. With radiomarked wolves, the count is straightforward but estimation of the area is more difficult and often given inadequate attention. The population area, based on the mosaic of pack territories, is influenced by sampling intensity similar to the estimation of individual home ranges. If sampling intensity is low, population area will be underestimated and wolf density will be inflated. Using data from studies in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, we investigated these relationships using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate effects of radiolocation effort and number of marked packs on density estimation. As the number of adjoining pack home ranges increased, fewer relocations were necessary to define a given percentage of population area. We present recommendations for monitoring wolves via radiotelemetry.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS1999

Development of a long-term ecological monitoring program in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska (USA)

A Long-term Ecological Monitoring (LTEM) program began at Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska (USA) in 1992, as a prototype for subarctic parks. The early history of the Denali LTEM program provides insight into the challenges that can arise during monitoring program development. The Denali program has thus far taken a watershed approach, involving collocation of study effort for a mix of abiotic and biotic attributes within a small, headwater stream (Rock Creek) which crosses the tundra-taiga boundary. An initial effort at integration and synthesis of meteorological, vegetation, small mammal and passerine bird data for the first 7 years of the program found few correlations, but power was low. We will now attempt to balance the intensive work in Rock Creek by developing a cost-effective sampling design that includes more of the park. We are also working to improve linkages between the monitoring program and park management decision-making and to strengthen data management and reporting mechanisms.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Seasonal and annual survival of adult Pacific brant

Declining mid-winter counts of Pacific brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) and reduced numbers of nesting birds on their main breeding grounds prompted us to assess factors that may be limiting recovery of this population. We estimated seasonal and annual survival rates of adult brant in 1986-93 from resightings of leg-banded birds. Brant were banded at a major colony on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska (Y-K Delta) in 1986-92, and resighted there in 1987-93 as well as at major fall and spring migration and wintering areas in 1990-93. Seasonal survival was the same for males and females. Mean monthly survival rate was lowest (P ≤ 0.05) in late spring migration (15 Apr-1 Jun), the period of greatest subsistence harvest on the breeding grounds, and highest in winter (1 Jan-1 Mar), the period of greatest sport harvest. Annual survival rate did not vary among years (F = 0.51; 5, 718 df; P = 0.91) and averaged 0.840 (SE = 0.031) from 1986 to 1993. Subsistence harvest has contributed to low population levels of Pacific brant.

Alaska↗

USGS1997

Testing for handling bias in survival estimation for black brant

We used an ultrastructure approach in program SURVIV to test for, and remove, bias in survival estimates for the year following mass banding of female black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ). We used relative banding-drive size as the independent variable to control for handling effects in our ultrastructure models, which took the form: S = S 0 (1 - α D), where α was handling effect and D was the ratio of banding-drive size to the largest banding drive. Brant were divided into 3 classes: goslings, initial captures, and recaptures, based on their state at the time of banding, because we anticipated the potential for heterogeneity in model parameters among classes of brant. Among models examined, for which α was not constrained, a model with α constant across classes of brant and years, constant survival rates among years for initially captured brant but year-specific survival rates for goslings and recaptures, and year- and class-specific detection probabilities had the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Handling effect, α , was -0.47 ± 0.13 SE, -0.14 ± 0.057, and -0.12 ± 0.049 for goslings, initially released adults, and recaptured adults. Gosling annual survival in the first year ranged from 0.738 ± 0.072 for the 1986 cohort to 0.260 ± 0.025 for the 1991 cohort. Inclusion of winter observations increased estimates of first-year survival rates by an average of 30%, suggesting that permanent emigration had an important influence on apparent survival, especially for later cohorts. We estimated annual survival for initially captured brant as 0.782 ± 0.013, while that for recaptures varied from 0.726 ± 0.034 to 0.900 ± 0.062. Our analyses failed to detect a negative effect of handling on survival of brant, which is consistent with an hypothesis of substantial inherent heterogeneity in post-fledging survival rates, such that individuals most likely to die as a result of handling also have lower inherent survival probabilities.

Alaska, California↗

USGS1995

Survival estimation and the effects of dependency among animals

Survival models assume that fates of individuals are independent, yet the robustness of this assumption has been poorly quantified. We examine how empirically derived estimates of the variance of survival rates are affected by dependency in survival probability among individuals. We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate known amounts of dependency among pairs of individuals and analyzed these data with Kaplan-Meier and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Dependency significantly increased these empirical variances as compared to theoretically derived estimates of variance from the same populations. Using resighting data from 168 pairs of black brant, we used a resampling procedure and program RELEASE to estimate empirical and mean theoretical variances. We estimated that the relationship between paired individuals caused the empirical variance of the survival rate to be 155% larger than the empirical variance for unpaired individuals. Monte Carlo simulations and use of this resampling strategy can provide investigators with information on how robust their data are to this common assumption of independent survival probabilities.

Journal of Applied Statistics↗