Geology topics

Emily L. Weiser

Publications and source records attributed to Emily L. Weiser.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Consequences of ignoring spatial variation in population trend when conducting a power analysis

Long-term, large-scale monitoring programs are becoming increasingly common to document status and trends of wild populations. A successful program for monitoring population trend hinges on the ability to detect the trend of interest. Power analyses are useful for quantifying the sample size needed for trend detection, given expected variation in the population. Four components of variation (within-year variation at a given site, interannual variation within a site, variation among sites in the interannual variation, and variation among sites in mean abundance or density) are commonly considered in power analyses for population trend, but a fifth is not: variation among sites in the local trend. Spatial variation in trend is expected to reduce statistical power, but the magnitude of this reduction has not been fully explored. We used computer simulations to evaluate the consequences of ignoring spatial variation in trend under a variety of sampling designs and wide ranges of other components of variation. The effect of spatial variation in trend on power was minor when other input parameters took extreme values that made the trend either very difficult or very easy to detect. However, at moderate values of the other parameters, spatial variation in trend had a strong effect, reducing statistical power by up to 60%. In some cases, ignoring spatial variation in trend resulted in an 80% probability of a Type I error (falsely detecting a trend in a stable population). Spatial variation in trend is therefore an important consideration when designing a long-term monitoring program for many species, especially those affected by local conditions at sites that are repeatedly surveyed. If variation in trend is ignored, as in most previous power analyses, the recommended sampling design will likely be insufficient to detect the trend of interest and lead to potentially false conclusions of a stable population.

Ecography↗

USGS2018

Wrangling distributed computing for high-throughput environmental science: An introduction to HTCondor

Biologists and environmental scientists now routinely solve computational problems that were unimaginable a generation ago. Examples include processing geospatial data, analyzing -omics data, and running large-scale simulations. Conventional desktop computing cannot handle these tasks when they are large, and high-performance computing is not always available nor the most appropriate solution for all computationally intense problems. High-throughput computing (HTC) is one method for handling computationally intense research. In contrast to high-performance computing, which uses a single "supercomputer," HTC can distribute tasks over many computers (e.g., idle desktop computers, dedicated servers, or cloud-based resources). HTC facilities exist at many academic and government institutes and are relatively easy to create from commodity hardware. Additionally, consortia such as Open Science Grid facilitate HTC, and commercial entities sell cloud-based solutions for researchers who lack HTC at their institution. We provide an introduction to HTC for biologists and environmental scientists. Our examples from biology and the environmental sciences use HTCondor, an open source HTC system.

PLOS Computational Biology↗

USGS2018

Effects of leg flags on nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Marking wild birds is an integral part of many field studies. However, if marks affect the vital rates or behavior of marked individuals, any conclusions reached by a study might be biased relative to the general population. Leg bands have rarely been found to have negative effects on birds and are frequently used to mark individuals. Leg flags, which are larger, heavier, and might produce more drag than bands, are commonly used on shorebirds and can help improve resighting rates. However, no one to date has assessed the possible effects of leg flags on the demographic performance of shorebirds. At seven sites in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, we marked individuals and monitored nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, including Semipalmated Sandpipers ( Calidris pusilla ), Western Sandpipers ( C. mauri ), Red‐necked Phalaropes ( Phalaropus lobatus ), and Red Phalaropes ( P. fulicarius ). We used a daily nest survival model in a Bayesian framework to test for effects of leg flags, relative to birds with only bands, on daily survival rates of 1952 nests. We found no evidence of a difference in nest survival between birds with flags and those with only bands. Our results suggest, therefore, that leg flags have little effect on the nest success of Arctic‐breeding sandpipers and phalaropes. Additional studies are needed, however, to evaluate the possible effects of flags on shorebirds that use other habitats and on survival rates of adults and chicks.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

USGS2018

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Effects of environmental conditions on reproductive effort and nest success of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

The Arctic is experiencing rapidly warming conditions, increasing predator abundance, and diminishing population cycles of keystone species such as lemmings. However, it is still not known how many Arctic animals will respond to a changing climate with altered trophic interactions. We studied clutch size, incubation duration and nest survival of 17 taxa of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds at 16 field sites over 7 years. We predicted that physiological benefits of higher temperatures and earlier snowmelt would increase reproductive effort and nest survival, and we expected increasing predator abundance and decreasing abundance of alternative prey (arvicoline rodents) to have a negative effect on reproduction. Although we observed wide ranges of conditions during our study, we found no effects of covariates on reproductive traits in 12 of 17 taxa. In the remaining taxa, most relationships agreed with our predictions. Earlier snowmelt increased the probability of laying a full clutch from 0.61 to 0.91 for Western Sandpipers, and shortened incubation by 1.42 days for arcticola Dunlin and 0.77 days for Red Phalaropes. Higher temperatures increased the probability of a full clutch from 0.60 to 0.93 for Western Sandpipers and from 0.76 to 0.97 for Red‐necked Phalaropes, and increased daily nest survival rates from 0.9634 to 0.9890 for Semipalmated Sandpipers and 0.9546 to 0.9880 for Western Sandpipers. Higher abundance of predators (foxes) reduced daily nest survival rates only in Western Sandpipers (0.9821–0.9031). In contrast to our predictions, the probability of a full clutch was lowest (0.83) for Semipalmated Sandpipers at moderate abundance of alternative prey, rather than low abundance (0.90). Our findings suggest that in the short‐term, climate warming may have neutral or positive effects on the nesting cycle of most Arctic‐breeding shorebirds.

Ibis↗

USGS2018

Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin ( Calidris alpina arcticola ; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.

The Auk↗

USGS2011

Evaluating gull diets: A comparison of conventional methods and stable isotope analysis

Samples such as regurgitated pellets and food remains have traditionally been used in studies of bird diets, but these can produce biased estimates depending on the digestibility of different foods. Stable isotope analysis has been developed as a method for assessing bird diets that is not biased by digestibility. These two methods may provide complementary or conflicting information on diets of birds, but are rarely compared directly. We analyzed carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of feathers of Glaucous Gull ( Larus hyperboreus) chicks from eight breeding colonies in northern Alaska, and used a Bayesian mixing model to generate a probability distribution for the contribution of each food group to diets. We compared these model results with probability distributions from conventional diet samples (pellets and food remains) from the same colonies and time periods. Relative to the stable isotope estimates, conventional analysis often overestimated the contributions of birds and small mammals to gull diets and often underestimated the contributions of fish and zooplankton. Both methods gave similar estimates for the contributions of scavenged caribou, miscellaneous marine foods, and garbage to diets. Pellets and food remains therefore may be useful for assessing the importance of garbage relative to certain other foods in diets of gulls and similar birds, but are clearly inappropriate for estimating the potential impact of gulls on birds, small mammals, or fish. However, conventional samples provide more species-level information than stable isotope analysis, so a combined approach would be most useful for diet analysis and assessing a predator's impact on particular prey groups.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗