Geology topics

Emily K. Schnebele

Publications and source records attributed to Emily K. Schnebele.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2022

Iodine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2021

Iodine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2021

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2020

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2020

Iodine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2019

Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with>85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

Resources Policy↗

USGS2019

Iodine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2019

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2018

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2018

Iodine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2017

Bromine

No abstract available.

Mining Engineering↗

USGS2015

Comparison of U.S. net import reliance for nonfuel mineral commodities—A 60-year retrospective (1954–1984–2014)

Introduction The economic vitality and national security of the United States depend on the reliable supply of numerous nonfuel mineral commodities. Over the past six decades, many of these commodities have been sourced increasingly from outside the United States. The mix of commodities for which the United States is import dependent has changed as technologies have advanced, as substitute materials have been developed, and as world economies have changed. Although reliance on imports is only one of the many factors that determine supply risk, a clear, long-term trend has emerged from the data compiled and published by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center (USGS–NMIC), and its predecessor organizations. Because the global distribution of mineral resources and reserves is not uniform, the United States has always been import reliant for some mineral commodities. Essentially, the type of commodities and the countries from which they are sourced determine risk related to import dependence. In light of projections that 2.5 billion to 3 billion people globally could move into the middle class by 2030, the demand for many types of mineral commodities is likely to continue to increase. Recent concerns regarding so-called “critical minerals” have been driven by market dislocations in the rare-earth-element supply chain in 2010 that resulted from a short-term policy decision by the Government of the People’s Republic of China to limit exports. That policy has since been changed as a result of actions by the World Trade Organization, but the events that followed, such as higher prices and intensive efforts to diversify sources of supply, illustrate the underlying issues of supply risk and the influence that disruptions can have on supply. These factors are often used in the classification of a mineral commodity as “critical.” The USGS–NMIC collects, analyzes, and disseminates information on a monthly, quarterly, or annual basis for more than 90 nonfuel mineral commodities from more than 180 countries. These data indicate that from 1954 through 2014 there was (1) a clear increase in the number and type of nonfuel mineral commodities for which the United States was net import reliant, (2) an increase in the percentage of import reliance for individual nonfuel mineral commodities, and (3) a shift in the geographic distribution of the source countries.

Fact Sheet↗