Geology topics

Elliott Matchett

Publications and source records attributed to Elliott Matchett.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Using the California Waterfowl Tracker to assess proximity of waterfowl to commercial poultry in the Central Valley of California

Migratory waterfowl are the primary reservoir of avian influenza viruses (AIV) which can be spread to commercial poultry. Surveillance efforts that track the location and abundance of wild waterfowl and link those data to inform assessments of risk and sampling for AIV currently do not exist. To assist surveillance and minimize poultry exposure to AIV, here we explored the utility of remotely sensed MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in combination with land-based climate measurements (e.g., temperature and precipitation) to predict waterfowl location and abundance in near real-time in the California Central Valley (CCV), where both wild waterfowl and domestic poultry are densely located. Specifically, remotely collected MODIS and climate data were integrated into a previously developed Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) model to predict and visualize waterfowl distributions across the CCV. Daily model-based predictions are publicly available during the winter as part of the dynamic California Waterfowl Tracker (CWT) web-app hosted on the University of California’s Cooperative Extension webpage. In this study, we analyzed 52 days of model predictions and produced daily spatio-temporal maps of waterfowl concentrations near the 605 commercial poultry farms in the CCV during January and February of 2019. Exposure of each poultry farm to waterfowl during each day was classified as “high”, “medium”, “low”, or “none” depending on the density of waterfowl within 4 km of a farm. Results indicated that farms were at substantially greater risk of “exposure” in January, when CCV waterfowl populations peak, than in February. For example, during January, 33% (199/605) of the farms were exposed ≥ 1 day to “high” waterfowl density versus 19% (115/605) of the farms in February. In addition to demonstrating the overall variability of waterfowl location and density, these data demonstrate how remote sensing can be used to better triage AIV surveillance and biosecurity efforts via the utilization of a functional web-app based tool. The ability to leverage remote sensing is an integral advancement toward improving AIV surveillance in waterfowl in close proximity to commercial poultry. Expansion of these types of remote sensing methods linked to a user-friendly web-tool could be further developed across the continental U.S. The BRT model incorporated into the CWT reflects a first attempt to give an accurate representation of waterfowl distribution and density relative to commercial poultry.

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USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

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USGS2017

Changes in the abundance and distribution of waterfowl wintering in the Central Valley of California, 1973–2000

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important areas for wintering waterfowl in the world and the focus of extensive conservation efforts to mitigate for historical losses and counter continuing stressors to habitats. To guide conservation, we analyzed trends in the abundance and distribution (spatiotemporal abundance patterns) of waterfowl and their habitats in the Central Valley and its major subregions (Sacramento Valley, Suisun Marsh, Delta, San Joaquin Valley), from 1973 through 2000. We used existing databases, satellite imagery, and aerial photography to measure habitat area, and aerial surveys and radio telemetry to track the abundance and distribution of wintering waterfowl. Wetlands increased throughout the Central Valley, but agricultural fields flooded after harvest increased greatly to the north in the Sacramento Valley and decreased to the south in the San Joaquin Valley, resulting in an overall increase in the relative availability of winter habitat in the former region. Reflecting the continental decline of the most abundant wintering species (Northern Pintail, Anas acuta ), the overall abundance of wintering waterfowl in the Central Valley declined during our study. By contrast, numbers of the American Wigeon ( A. americana ), Mallard ( A. platyrhynchos ), and Northern Shoveler ( A. clypeata ) were stable, and numbers of the Green-winged Teal ( A. crecca ), Gadwall ( A. strepera ), diving ducks, and geese increased from 1973–1982 to 1998–2000. The areas of greatest abundance of wintering waterfowl within the Central Valley shifted northward as many species responded to changes in the distribution of habitats. Wintering waterfowl migrated earlier in fall and winter from the San Joaquin Valley, Suisun Marsh, and Delta to the Sacramento Valley, and fewer waterfowl emigrated from the Sacramento Valley to other parts of the Central Valley. Because changes in waterfowl distribution were primarily a response to the increase of a beneficial agricultural practice (i.e., the flooding of rice after harvest) in the Sacramento Valley, changing agro-economics, reduction of water supplies, or other factors that reduce this practice could change the abundance and distribution of wintering waterfowl in the Central Valley rapidly. Thus to maintain abundant suitable habitat and restore the historical distribution of wintering waterfowl, our results suggest a continuing need for the conservation of wetlands and other waterfowl habitats with secure water supplies throughout the Central Valley. Despite our findings, achieving goals for winter waterfowl populations in the Central Valley likely will depend on a combination of factors including some acting in breeding ranges farther north or elsewhere outside of the valley.

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USGS2017

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.

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USGS2017

Modeling waterfowl habitat selection in the Central Valley of California to better understand the spatial relationship between commercial poultry and waterfowl

Wildlife researchers frequently study resource and habitat selection of wildlife to understand their potential habitat requirements and to conserve their populations. Understanding wildlife spatial-temporal distributions related to habitat have other applications such as to model interfaces between wildlife and domestic food animals in order to mitigate disease transmission to food animals. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus represents a significant risk to the poultry industry. The Central Valley of California offers a unique geographical confluence of commercial poultry and wild waterfowl, which are thought to be a key reservoir of avian influenza (AI). Therefore, understanding spatio-temporal distributions of waterfowl could improve our understanding of potential risk of HPAI exposure from a commercial poultry perspective. Using existing radio-telemetry data on waterfowl (U.S. Geological Survey) in combination with habitat and vegetation data based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS), we are developing GIS-based statistical models that predict the probability of waterfowl presence (Habitat Suitability Mapping). Near-real-time application can be developed using recent habitat data derived from Landsat imagery (acquired by satellites and publicly available through the U.S. Geological Survey) to predict temporally- and spatially-varying distributions of waterfowl in the Central Valley. These results could be used to provide decision support for the poultry industry in addressing potential risk of HPAI exposure related to waterfowl proximity.

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USGS2015

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CV wh ) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CV wh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

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