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Elizabeth Ann Hunter

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth Ann Hunter.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Assessing working lands as habitat for disturbance-dependent birds using autonomous recording units

Introduction Working lands can provide habitat for declining disturbance-dependent birds, such as Bachman's Sparrow ( Peucaea aestivalis ) and Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ), but it remains unclear whether restoration following intensive land use (e.g. surface mining) yields habitat comparable to less intensive land uses (e.g. timber production). Objectives We evaluated effects of land use both in working lands (recently replanted surface mine reclamation site and recently replanted timber production site) and reference sites explicitly managed for wildlife (recently restored young pine savanna and mature pine savanna) and understory vegetation characteristics on relative abundance of disturbance-dependent birds within upland pine ( Pinus spp.) communities in southeastern Georgia, United States. We hypothesized that the mine reclamation site would support similar bird species but in lower relative abundances than other land uses. Methods We conducted daily acoustic surveys using autonomous recording units (ARUs) and measured vegetation surveys once per point from May to June 2024. We used Royle-Nichols models, an adapted occupancy model, to estimate relative abundance for eight bird species. Results Land use influenced relative abundance for all species and explained more variation in relative abundance than measured understory vegetation characteristics. The mining reclamation site supported most disturbance-dependent species and, in some cases, equal or higher relative abundances, particularly for Northern Bobwhite and Common Nighthawk ( Chordeiles minor ). Responses across timber production and savanna sites varied by species. Vegetation effects were generally weaker and species-specific, suggesting that land use history and associated habitat legacies play an important role in structuring these bird communities. Conclusion Working lands, including reclaimed mines, can provide habitat for disturbance-dependent birds, and ARUs are effective for evaluating these patterns across land uses.

Restoration Ecology↗
USGS2026

Comparison of data handling techniques for modeling bat acoustic activity

With the proliferation of acoustic sampling to investigate bat distribution and ecology, researchers have implemented a myriad of statistical modeling approaches to interpret findings. Bats are taxa of high conservation concern; therefore, ensuring the accuracy of species-level habitat association models is critical for informing management. We sought to determine prediction differences among statistical approaches to modeling counts of acoustic detections, using generalized linear mixed models with 8 acoustic data-handling techniques. We applied each approach or combination of approaches to a rare species, the northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ), and a common species, the eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ), from summer survey results on a landscape in south-central Pennsylvania, USA, 2024. We evaluated the accuracy of habitat association models of bat acoustic activity at the species level using cross-validation and compared resulting predictions of models using spatial correlations. We determined that filtering data by automated identification software (Kaleidoscope Pro), the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) P -value thresholds reduced relative mean absolute error (rMAE) in cross-validation of northern long-eared bat models. Using the MLE-retained data produced the most accurate predictions over using raw data or the overly conservative match ratio data. However, for the eastern red bat, the results from the most conservative approach of only retaining data with at least a 90% match ratio from software development training sets had the lowest rMAE. We have provided evidence that the current standard of filtering data by nightly MLE can result in more accurate and informative habitat-use acoustic activity models for rare bat species.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2026

Long lives, short futures: Freshwater turtle and tortoise imports to the United States highlight global trade and conservation challenges

Global trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises presents substantial conservation, biosecurity, and regulatory challenges, particularly for long-lived species that are already highly imperiled. While the United States has historically played a key role in supplying the international chelonian trade, investigations into its role as an importer remain limited. We used import data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) between 2000 and 2022 to evaluate the trade of freshwater turtles and tortoises. Over 2.5 million individuals were imported into the United States during this period, comprising 172 species that are likely imported for the pet trade, food, and traditional medicine markets. Reported annual imports for freshwater turtles increased until approximately 2013 and decreased thereafter, whereas reported annual imports for tortoises have remained relatively constant. Two species, Chinese softshell turtles ( Pelodiscus sinensis ) and Horsfield's tortoises ( Testudo horsfieldii ) represent 62.9% of all imports. Imported species were largely classified as Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered by the IUCN Red List, yet the conservation status of a concerning number of species ( n = 45; 26.2%) has not been evaluated. Many imports appear to be sourced from wild populations (28.3% of freshwater turtles, 71.3% of tortoises); however, captive-sourced imports increased significantly over time across both groups. Import volumes raise concerns regarding the sustainability of freshwater turtle and tortoise trade, the potential for invasive species establishment, and disease spread. Our results highlight the need for updated IUCN assessments, verification of trade records, and strengthening of biosecurity screening at U.S. ports of entry.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2026

Boxed in or branching out? Movement and resource selection of eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) in an urban green space

The eastern box turtle ( Terrapene carolina carolina ) is a long-lived terrestrial turtle species distributed throughout the eastern United States that has experienced widespread population decline. Many eastern box turtle populations are persisting as remanent populations in small, fragmented urban green spaces. We investigated the movement and resource selection of eastern box turtles within a mid-Atlantic region urban forest in the eastern United States. We used a combination of turtle occurrence data (via visual encounter surveys) and radio telemetry to create resource selection functions. Additionally, we applied a simulation modeling approach and modeled activity areas via dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models to quantify interactions between turtles and roads or trails. We also used these models to determine the propensity for turtles to move outside of the managed urban forest boundary and into surrounding development. We observed that turtles selected for deciduous forest patches and avoided roads and trails despite the urban forest having very little available areas where anthropogenic features could be avoided. We also demonstrated observed (and probable) movements outside of the urban forest boundary. Although eastern box turtles are persisting within the urban green space we examined, our work determined that interactions with roads and trails, and movements outside of protected boundaries into developed areas present challenges to individuals navigating the urban forest.

eastern United States, mid-Atlantic region↗
USGS2025

Spatial occupancy patterns of the endangered northern long‐eared bat in New England

Aim White-nose syndrome has caused severe declines in eastern North American cave bats, leading to the federal listing of the northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ) as endangered in the United States and Canada. This has heightened the importance of long-term monitoring to inform species status assessments. We employed a combination of long-term repeated and single-season acoustic survey data to assess the regional presence, spatial distribution, occupancy, and detection probability of northern long-eared bats. Location New England, United States. Methods We analysed acoustic data from 2357 detector sites, aggregated by year, using Bayesian single-species occupancy models. We investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, climatic variables, and year (2015–2022) on occupancy and the effects of weather conditions and survey month (May to August) on detection probability. Spatial random effects were included to address residual spatial autocorrelation, with a 1-km resolution chosen based on significant positive autocorrelation observed in a non-spatial model. Results Occupancy was highest on steep, forested hillsides with minimal anthropogenic development, higher in warmer regions, particularly along coastlines and on offshore islands, and declined across survey years. Including a 1-km spatial random effect reduced residual autocorrelation and suggests northern long-eared bats utilise resources at small to medium landscape scales. Detection probability was highest earlier in the maternity season, but declined when monthly precipitation or temperature exceeded average conditions. Conclusions Conservation efforts that focus on steep, forested hillsides in warmer regions with low anthropogenic development could be beneficial. Our analysis supports the use of spatial random effects at a 1-km 2 scale, highlighting the importance of survey designs that capture ecological variation at species-specific resolutions. Additionally, early-season acoustic surveys conducted during favourable weather conditions may improve monitoring effectiveness. Acoustic sampling and spatial occupancy modelling offer powerful tools for monitoring remnant populations of northern long-eared bats and guiding conservation practices.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2025

Evidence of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) depredating a Saltmarsh Sparrow (Ammospiza caudacuta) nest

Saltmarsh Sparrows ( Ammospiza caudacuta ), a tidal-marsh specialist, face severe population declines due to habitat loss, sea-level rise, and predation. While previous research suggests that predation pressure increases at the southern extent of the species’ breeding range, data on local predator communities remain limited. To address this, we deployed game cameras at 16 Saltmarsh Sparrow nests across four salt marshes on Virginia’s eastern shore, the southern-most extent of their breeding range. Our study provides camera-documented evidence of red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ) predation on Saltmarsh Sparrow nests. We detected a suspected predation event by white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and four other potential nest predators. Additionally, we detected a Willet ( Tringa semipalmata ) aggressively displacing a nesting female, suggesting interspecific interactions may contribute to nest failure.

Virginia↗
USGS2025

Satellite imagery can predict bird species occupancy and inform multispecies management in pine savannas

Multispecies management can contribute to meeting growing challenges of preserving biodiversity, yet current game and threatened species management often focuses on individual species. Satellite imagery available at high spatial and temporal resolution provides a potential tool to overcome the challenge posed by multispecies management of linking patterns of habitat use among species. We sought to determine whether satellite imagery could be used to describe patterns of species occupancy and inform multispecies management in pine savannas in Georgia, USA. We conducted point-count surveys at 7 sites in 2022 for 3 bird species: Colinus virginianus (Northern Bobwhite), Dryobates borealis (Red-cockaded Woodpecker), and Peucaea aestivalis (Bachman’s Sparrow). We built single-season occupancy models comparing a set of models using covariates collected from field vegetation surveys and another set using covariates extracted from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. We then used a multi-objective optimization algorithm to identify quasi-optimal management solutions (i.e., sets of covariate values from top satellite imagery metric models). We found that models created using satellite imagery performed well at predicting occupancy of all 3 species as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC > 0.8) and had higher AUC scores than field-derived habitat covariate-based models. We found combinations of metrics that could result in high rates of predicted probability of occupancy for all species (within 86% of highest possible occupancy probability), but these combinations did not exist at any of the sites. Our results demonstrate that (1) satellite imagery can allow users to build reliable occupancy models without intensive field-based vegetation surveys; and (2) C. virginianus , D. borealis, and P. aestivalis in pine savanna ecosystems could be simultaneously managed through more frequent burning, changes in canopy cover or by producing suitable heterogeneity of habitats after identifying an appropriate scale of management.

Georgia↗
USGS2025

Aggregated space use by soft-released translocated Gopher Tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus)

Translocated herpetofauna can exhibit irregular space use and movement patterns when compared with resident conspecifics. In Florida, USA, Gopher Tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ) are translocated throughout the state to mitigate habitat loss due to development. The postrelease space use of translocated Gopher Tortoises within soft-release pens can affect population dynamics and population monitoring efficacy, and understanding spatial patterns can aid wildlife managers with population management. We used a combination of time-lapse cameras, animal tracking devices, and burrow distribution surveys to investigate translocated tortoise space use at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, where tortoises have been translocated since 2015. We investigated 10 soft-release pens that varied in size (4–41 ha) and shape (due to landscape configuration and existing infrastructure). Time-lapse cameras and burrow distribution surveys showed that tortoises used habitat within 20 m of soft-release pens (silt fences) significantly more than the interior of pens. In most pens, the selection of pen-edge habitat resulted in a clustering effect that lessened upon subsequent surveys, after fences were removed. Additionally, our tracking data showed mixed evidence for clustering, where three of the seven tortoises used edge area significantly more than the interior of pens. Such clustering can affect the efficacy of population survey methods while potentially having negative impacts on the health of translocatees by increasing local density.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Social composition of soft‐release groups is correlated with survival of translocated gopher tortoises

The social structure of translocated animal populations can have important effects on the survival and reproduction of translocated individuals for both solitary and social species. The gopher tortoise ( Gopherus polyphemus ) is a reptile of conservation concern that is currently experiencing high levels of mitigation translocation in Florida, USA. Individuals live in aggregations of burrows with frequent agonistic, courtship, and burrow-sharing interactions between residents. Given that exposure to many unfamiliar individuals may increase the frequency of aggressive interactions and social stress following translocation, we predicted that tortoises with greater numbers of familiar individuals co-translocated from the same origin site would have higher survival after translocation. To test this, we updated a recently published survival analysis of 2,822 translocated tortoises and 502 identified carcasses from a translocation site in the western Florida panhandle from 2006–2022. After controlling for simultaneous effects of soft-release enclosure identity, release season, release density, region of origin, sex, and size, adding the number of potentially familiar individuals improved model fit and showed increasing the number of familiars reduced the probability of being found dead. This effect was modulated by release density, being apparent only when density was high, suggesting a role for social interactions. This effect was also present only in the first few years after release, prior to the removal of soft-release enclosures preventing dispersal, and was similar in magnitude to previously identified effects of density, release season, and region of origin. We suggest that this effect may result from reduced aggressive interactions or social stress for tortoises with a greater number of familiar individuals in their release enclosures but cannot rule out the possibility of reduced novel pathogen exposure for individuals released with a greater number of individuals from the same source site or other factors that may be confounded with the size of translocated groups. Designing and implementing mitigation translocations to account for social composition of gopher tortoise groups could improve survival in release enclosures.

Florida↗
USGS2024

A multi-objective approach for timber harvest scheduling to include management of at-risk species and spatial configuration objectives

Sustainable forestry typically involves integration of several economic and ecological objectives which, at times, may not be compatible with one another. Multi-objective prioritization via harvest scheduling programs can be used to elucidate these relationships and explore solutions. One such program is a spatially explicit harvest scheduler that adopts the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to iteratively find management solutions to achieve multiple objectives (Habplan). Although this program has been used to address forest management scheduling and simulation-based tasks, its utility is constrained by time-intensive data preparation and challenges with incorporating spatial configuration objectives. To address these shortcomings, we introduce an open-source software package, HabplanR, streamlines data preparation, sets parameters, visualizes results, and assesses spatial components of ecological objectives. We developed four example objectives to incorporate into a multi-objective management problem: habitat quality indices for three species “types” (open, closed, and intermediate-canopy-associated species), and harvested pine pulpwood (revenue). We demonstrate the utility of this package to find management schedules that can accommodate potentially conflicting habitat needs of species, while achieving economic targets. We produced 100 software runs and prioritized individual objectives to select four management schedules for further comparisons. We compared outcome differences of the four schedules, including a spatial comparison of two high performing schedules. The software package makes costs and benefits of different schedules explicit and allows for consideration of the spatial configuration of management outcomes in decision-making.

southeastern United States↗
USGS2024

Common-garden experiment reveals outbreeding depression and region-of-origin effects on reproductive success in a frequently translocated tortoise

Human-mediated animal movement can expose wildlife populations to novel environments. Phenotypic plasticity can buffer against the challenges presented by novel environments, while adaptation to local ecosystems may limit resilience in novel ecosystems. Outbreeding depression during the mixing of disparate gene pools can also reduce reproductive success after long-distance movement. Here, we use a ‘common-garden’ population of gopher tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), translocated from numerous sites across the state of Florida, USA, to a mitigation site in the north-west (panhandle) region to assess whether geographic origin, outbreeding effects, and behavioral plasticity influence reproductive success in this threatened keystone species. We found that females from north-east Florida produced clutches with lower hatching success than females from other regions. We detected regional differentiation in nest site selection behavior in the common environment of the translocation site, though these differences did not mediate the regional effect on hatching success. We also found evidence for outbreeding depression: hatching success declined with increasing parental geographic and genetic distances, dropping from 93% to 67% across the range of observed parental genetic distances. Together, these results suggest that newly admixed populations may suffer reproductive costs due to historical population differentiation, and that undetected outbreeding depression could significantly hamper conservation efforts for this species and others undergoing a variety of human-mediated movements.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Asymmetric mate preference and reproductive interference mediate climate-induced changes in mate availability in a small mammal hybrid zone

Range expansion and contraction are among the most common biotic responses to changing environmental conditions, yet much is to be learned about the mechanisms that underlie range-edge population dynamics, especially when those areas are points of secondary contact between closely related species. Here, we present field-measured parentage data that document the reproductive outcomes of changes in mate availability at a secondary contact zone between two species of woodrat in the genus Neotoma . Changes in mate availability resulted from drought-driven differential survival between the species and their hybrids. As the availability of conspecifc mates declined, rates of hybridization increased, leading to the accumulation of admixed individuals in the zone of contact. Patterns of reproductive success in the wild appear to be the result of a combination of both pre-mating isolation and post-zygotic selection resulting from genomic incompatibilities between the parental lineages. Evidence of asymmetric mate preference between the parental lineages came from both skewed reproductive output in the field and laboratory preference trials. Moreover, partial genomic incompatibility was evident from the near-zero reproductive success of F1 males and because nearly all surviving hybrids had one pure parent. Nonetheless, the high reproductive success of F1 females and backcrossing in both parental directions allow for introgression between the parental species. These findings reveal how climate change may alter evolutionary outcomes for species at the edge of their ranges through an interplay of behavioral, demographic, and genetic mechanisms.

California↗
USGS2024

Unexpected effect of geographic origin on post-translocation survival in a long-lived reptile, the gopher tortoise

Mitigation translocations move wildlife from specific areas due to conflict with humans over land use at the site. A critical decision when carrying out mitigation translocation is the acceptable distance across which animals can be moved. This decision trades off logistical expediency of unrestricted translocation with the risk of reducing translocation success due to environmental mismatch between origin and translocation site conditions. In this study, we used a large dataset of 502 individually identifiable carcasses to examine the role of geographic origin and translocation distance in the relative survival of 2822 translocated subadult and adult gopher tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), a species experiencing large-scale mitigation translocation, at a recipient site in the Florida panhandle, USA. We hypothesized that if climate or habitat differences between the origin and translocation site influenced survival, tortoises translocated from within the Florida panhandle would have the highest survival. To the contrary, we found that survival slightly increased with increasing climatic difference between origin and recipient site, driven by higher survival of tortoises coming from central Florida sites compared to those from the panhandle and north Florida. This suggests that environmental mismatch due to long-distance translocation is not a main driver of mortality. These models also indicated an effect of season, with a survival advantage to tortoises translocated in the spring and late fall, relative to summer translocations, and a negative effect of initial density on survival. Finally, we also estimated the upper bound on annual survival in three well-monitored groups to be quite low (92–95%) for several years following release, suggesting caution when considering large translocated populations to be viable without first assessing adult survival. Our unexpected results highlight the importance of investigating species-specific sensitivities to translocation distances and indicate the limitations of assumed linear effects of translocation distance on outcomes.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Simulation modeling to assess line transect distance sampling under a range of translocation scenarios

The accuracy of posttranslocation population monitoring methods is critical to assessing long-term success in translocation programs. Translocation can produce unique challenges to monitoring efforts; therefore, it is important to understand the flexibility and robustness of commonly used monitoring methods. In Florida, USA, thousands of gopher tortoises Gopherus polyphemus have been, and continue to be, translocated from development sites to permitted recipient sites. These recipient sites create a broad range of potential monitoring scenarios due to variability in soft-release strategies, habitat conditions, and population demographics. Line transect distance sampling is an effective method for monitoring natural tortoise populations, but it is currently untested for translocated populations. We therefore produced 3,024 individual-based, spatially explicit scenarios of translocated tortoise populations that differed in recipient site and tortoise population properties, based on real-world examples, literature review, and expert opinion. We virtually sampled simulated tortoise populations by using line transect distance sampling methods and built a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the population density for each simulation, which incorporated individual-level covariates (i.e., burrow width and burrow occupancy). Line transect distance sampling was largely appropriate for the conditions that typify gopher tortoise recipient sites, particularly when detection probability on the transect lines was greater than or equal to 0.85. Designing the layout of transects relative to the orientation of soft-release pens, to avoid possible sampling biases that lead to extreme outliers in estimates of tortoise densities, resulted in more accurate population estimates. We also suggest that use of individual-level covariates, applied using a Bayesian framework as demonstrated in our study, may improve the applicability of line transect distance sampling surveys in a variety of contexts and that simulation can be a powerful tool for assessing survey design in complex sampling situations.

Florida↗
USGS2024

Using remote sensing to identify habitat for wintering Henslow's Sparrows (Centronyx henslowii)

The Henslow's Sparrow ( Centronyx henslowii ) is a grassland bird species that overwinters in the southeastern United States and is a species of conservation concern due to population declines primarily caused by habitat loss. Henslow's Sparrows often overwinter in marginal habitats, such as powerline rights-of-way (ROWs), clear cuts, and field edges that provide some of their desired habitat characteristics, such as low-to-no tree cover and a diverse herbaceous understory. Using remote sensing methods, we evaluated the habitat characteristics of Henslow's Sparrow–occupied ROWs in southeastern Georgia. We calculated 22 satellite imagery metrics from Sentinel 2-L2 10 m resolution imagery, including single-pixel variables (e.g., Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) as well as “image texture” metrics that represent spatial heterogeneity. Using Random Forest models, we evaluated whether satellite imagery metrics could be used to discriminate between Henslow's Sparrow used areas (delineated from telemetry data) and surrounding available areas. Satellite imagery metrics were successful in predicting habitat characteristics in the ROWs (as evaluated by out-of-bag error and 3 goodness-of-fit tests), with image texture metrics performing better than single-pixel metrics. Image texture metrics were 9 of the top 10 most important predictors of habitat use in the best performing model that had a 500 m available buffer around use areas (out-of-bag error rate 21.21%). The most important image texture metric, cluster shade, was positively correlated with tree cover; Henslow's Sparrows were more likely to use areas with intermediate levels of cluster shade. From our results, we concluded that image texture metrics derived from 10 m satellite imagery could be used to predict sites that have suitable overwintering habitat for Henslow's Sparrows, but only at coarse resolutions and broader extents (hundreds of meters to kilometers). Therefore, this tool could be used to identify other ROWs (and possibly non-ROWs) with habitat that may support this and other declining grassland species.

Georgia↗
USGS2023

Testosterone identifies hatchling sex for Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii)

The threatened Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) exhibits temperature-dependent sex determination, and individuals appear externally sexually monomorphic until sexual maturity. A non-surgical sex identification method that is suitable for a single in situ encounter with hatchlings is essential for minimizing handling of wild animals. We tested (1) whether plasma testosterone quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay differentiated males from females in 0–3 month old captive hatchlings, and (2) whether an injection of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) differentially elevates testosterone in male hatchlings to aid in identifying sex. We validated sex by ceolioscopic (laparoscopic) surgery. We then fit the testosterone concentrations to lognormal distributions and identified the concentration below which individuals are more likely female, and above which individuals are more likely male. Using a parametric bootstrapping procedure, we estimated a 0.01–0.04% misidentification rate for naïve testosterone samples, and a 1.26–1.39% misidentification rate for challenged (post-FSH injection) testosterone samples. Quantification of plasma testosterone concentration from small volume (0.1 mL) blood samples appears to be a viable, highly accurate method to identify sex of 0–3 month old hatchlings and could be a valuable tool for conservation measures and investigation of trends and variation in sex ratios for in situ wild nests.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2023

A big data–model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus ) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host–pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data–model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New ↗