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Elizabeth A. Pendleton

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth A. Pendleton.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change

Local to global scale projections of future coastal landscape change are essential to improve land and resource management decisions that aim to prepare for and reduce risk exposure to impending coastal hazards. However, the availability of actionable knowledge is often limited due to the complexity of drivers of change, their consequences, and uncertainties that span disciplines. Varying spatial and temporal scales of physical processes that occur on landscapes with differing levels of coastal development and modification complicate decision-making. This paper reviews advances in observational approaches, modeling, and quantification of uncertainty to support the next generation of coastal change projections. We also highlight transdisciplinary opportunities for making this information more accessible and useful to support decision-making in the coastal zone. This includes consideration of different levels of user engagement to address specific needs, as well as resources and mechanisms that can support knowledge transfer broadly. A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support research integration including three components: accounting for relevant drivers, processes, and feedbacks; working with users to identify their information needs; and generating meaningful projections and uncertainty. Actions that would support such frameworks include the evaluation of models through coordinated research approaches and multi-model comparisons; ongoing investments in observations and data-driven approaches necessary to understand this complex environment; expansion of modeling capabilities using novel techniques; prioritization of co-development efforts between researchers and users; and continued training and support for transdisciplinary research.

Alaska, California, Florida, New York

Assessing decadal-scale coastal change likelihood to define the accuracy and application of scientific information

Defining the accuracy and uncertainties of scientific data products is critical to the usability and trustworthiness of scientific information for environmental management and conservation purposes, such as coastal resource prioritization, design, adaptation, and mitigation. The U.S. Geological Survey has a new decadal-scale coastal change assessment product that synthesizes nearly two dozen coastal datasets. A supervised machine-learning framework is used to combine existing datasets that describe the landscape and the hazards that affect it to determine the coastal change likelihood (CCL) in the coming decade at a resolution of 10 m per pixel for the NE United States from Maine to Virginia. Here, results from a series of statistical tests conducted on source data, the supervised classification, and the CCL outcomes as compared with historical land-cover change are presented. The overall accuracy of the aggregated land-cover dataset that serves as the foundation to which other source datasets are appended is 94%. The supervised learning classification that determines the final CCL output has an overall accuracy of 92%. The CCL predictions of high expected coastal change were consistent with 95% of the coastal and low-elevation landscape change in the last 20 years, as recorded by the Coastal Change Analysis Program land-cover change atlas. Results suggest that CCL provides accurate estimates of coastal landscape change in the next decade that are consistent with recent observed change. Additionally, best practices for applying CCL for planning purposes are outlined, and citing limitations, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for improved accuracy and further investigation are considered.

Journal of Coastal Research

Development and application of a coastal change likelihood assessment for the northeast region, Maine to Virginia

Coastal resources are increasingly affected by erosion, extreme weather events, sea level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards related to climate change. These hazards have varying effects on coastal landscapes because of the compounding of geologic, oceanographic, ecologic, and socioeconomic factors that exist at a given location. An assessment framework is introduced in this report that synthesizes existing datasets that cover the variability of the landscape, and hazards that may act on the landscape, to evaluate the likelihood of coastal change along the U.S. coastline on a decadal scale. The pilot study that aided in the development of the framework was run in the northeastern United States (from Maine to Virginia) and consists of datasets derived from a variety of Federal, State, and local sources. First, a decision-tree-based dataset was built that describes the resistance or integrity of the coastal landscape (called the fabric dataset for the purposes of this report) and includes land cover, elevation, slope, long-term (more than 50 years) shoreline change, dune height, and marsh stability data. A second database was generated from coastal hazards, which are divided into event hazards (for example, flooding, wave power, and probability of storm overwash) and persistent or perpetual hazards (for example, relative sea level rise rate, short-term [about 30-year] shoreline erosion rate, and storm recurrence interval). The fabric dataset was then merged with the coastal hazards databases, and a model training dataset made up of hundreds of polygons was generated from these combined data to support machine learning. The pilot study resulted in location-specific, 10-meter-resolution data classified into five raster datasets that include intrinsic characteristics of the coast used to determine the resistance of the landscape to change, the persistent and event hazards that act on the coast, the machine learning output (coastal change likelihood) based on the cumulative effects of the fabric and hazards datasets, and an estimate of the hazard type (event or persistent) that is the most likely to influence coastal change. Final outcomes are intended to be used as a first-order planning tool to determine which areas of the coast are more likely to change in response to future potential coastal hazards and to examine elements and drivers that make change in a location more likely.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse

Seismic stratigraphic framework of the continental shelf offshore Delmarva, U.S.A.: Implications for Mid-Atlantic Bight evolution since the Pliocene

Understanding how past coastal systems have evolved is critical to predicting future coastal change. Using over 12,000 trackline kilometers of recently collected, co-located multi-channel boomer, sparker and chirp seismic reflection profile data integrated with previously collected borehole and vibracore data, we define the upper (< 115 m below mean lower low water) seismic stratigraphic framework offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula, USA. Twelve seismic units and 11 regionally extensive unconformities (U1-U11) were mapped over 5900 km 2 of North America's Mid-Atlantic continental shelf. We interpret U3, U7, U9, U11 as transgressive ravinement surfaces, while U1,2,4,5,6,8,10 are subaerial unconformities illustrating distinct periods of lower sea-level. Based on areal distribution, stratigraphic relationships and dating results (Carbon 14 and amino acid racemization estimates) from earlier vibracore and borehole studies, we interpret the infilled channels as late Neogene and Quaternary courses of the Susquehanna, Potomac, Rappahannock, York, James rivers and tributaries, and a broad flood plain. These findings indicate that the region's geologic framework is more complex than previously thought and that Pleistocene paleochannels are abundant in the Mid-Atlantic. This study synthesizes and correlates the findings of other Atlantic Margin studies and establishes a large-scale Quaternary framework that enables more detailed stratigraphic analysis in the future. Such work has implications for inner continental shelf systems tract evolution, the relationship between antecedent geology and modern coastal systems, assessments of eustacy, glacial isostatic adjustment, and other processes and forcings that play a role in passive margin evolution.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

Optimizing an inner-continental shelf geologic framework investigation through data repurposing and machine learning

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have collected approximately 5,400 km2 of geophysical and hydrographic data on the Atlantic continental shelf between Delaware and Virginia over the past decade and a half. Although originally acquired for different objectives, the comprehensive coverage and variety of data (bathymetry, backscatter, imagery and physical samples) presents an opportunity to merge collections and create high-resolution, broad-scale geologic maps of the seafloor. This compilation of data repurposes hydrographic data, expands the area of geologic investigation, highlights the versatility of mapping data, and creates new geologic products that would not have been independently possible. The data are classified using a variety of machine learning algorithms, including unsupervised and supervised methods. Four unique classes were targeted for classification, and source data include bathymetry, backscatter, slope, curvature, and shaded-relief. A random forest classifier used on all five source data layers was found to be the most accurate method for these data. Geomorphologic and sediment texture maps are derived from the classified acoustic data using over 200 groundtruth samples. The geologic data products can be used to identify sediment sources, inform resource management, link seafloor environments to sediment texture, improve our understanding of seafloor structure and sediment pathways, and demonstrate how ocean mapping resources can be useful beyond their original intent to maximize the footprint and scientific impact of a study.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

Shallow geology, sea-floor texture, and physiographic zones of the inner continental shelf from Aquinnah to Wasque Point, Martha’s Vineyard, and Eel Point to Great Point, Nantucket, Massachusetts

A series of interpretive maps that describe the shallow geology, distribution, and texture of sea-floor sediments, and physiographic zones of the sea floor along the south and west shores of Martha’s Vineyard and the north shore of Nantucket, Massachusetts, were produced by using high-resolution geophysical data (interferometric and multibeam swath bathymetry, light detection and ranging (lidar) bathymetry, backscatter intensity, and seismic-reflection profiles), sediment samples, and bottom photographs. These interpretations are intended to aid statewide efforts to inventory and manage coastal and marine resources, link with existing data interpretations, and provide information for research focused on coastal evolution and environmental change. Marine geologic mapping of the inner continental shelf of Massachusetts is a statewide cooperative effort of the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management.

Massachusetts

Sand ridge morphology and bedform migration patterns derived from bathymetry and backscatter on the inner-continental shelf offshore of Assateague Island, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration conducted geophysical and hydrographic surveys, respectively, along the inner-continental shelf of Fenwick and Assateague Islands, Maryland and Virginia over the last 40 years. High resolution bathymetry and backscatter data derived from surveys over the last decade are used to describe the morphology and presence of sand ridges on the inner-continental shelf and measure the change in the position of smaller-scale (10–100 s of meters) seafloor features. Bathymetric surveys from the last 30 years link decadal-scale sand ridge migration patterns to the high-resolution measurements of smaller-scale bedform features. Sand ridge morphology on the inner-shelf changes across-shore and alongshore. Areas of similar sand ridge morphology are separated alongshore by zones where ridges are less pronounced or completely transected by transverse dunes. Seafloor-change analyses derived from backscatter data over a 4–7 year period show that southerly dune migration increases in magnitude from north to south, and the east-west pattern of bedform migration changes ~ 10 km north of the Maryland-Virginia state line. Sand ridge morphology and occurrence and bedform migration changes may be connected to observed changes in geologic framework including topographic highs, deflated zones, and sand availability. Additionally, changes in sand ridge occurrence and morphology may help explain changes in the long-term shoreline trends along Fenwick and Assateague Islands. Although the data presented here cannot quantitatively link sand ridges to sediment transport and shoreline change, it does present a compelling relationship between inner-shelf sand availability and movement, sand ridge occurrence and morphology, geologic framework, and shoreline behavior.

Assateague Island

Shallow geology, sea-floor texture, and physiographic zones of Vineyard and western Nantucket Sounds, Massachusetts

Geologic, sediment texture, and physiographic zone maps characterize the sea floor of Vineyard and western Nantucket Sounds, Massachusetts. These maps were derived from interpretations of seismic-reflection profiles, high-resolution bathymetry, acoustic-backscatter intensity, bottom photographs/video, and surficial sediment samples collected within the 494-square-kilometer study area. Interpretations of seismic stratigraphy and mapping of glacial and Holocene marine units provided a foundation on which the surficial maps were created. This mapping is a result of a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management to characterize the surface and subsurface geologic framework offshore of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts

Shallow geology, sea-floor texture, and physiographic zones of Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts

Geologic, sediment texture, and physiographic zone maps characterize the sea floor of Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts. These maps were derived from interpretations of seismic-reflection profiles, high-resolution bathymetry, acoustic-backscatter intensity, bottom photographs, and surficial sediment samples. The interpretation of the seismic stratigraphy and mapping of glacial and Holocene marine units provided a foundation on which the surficial maps were created. This mapping is a result of a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management to characterize the surface and subsurface geologic framework offshore of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts

High-resolution swath interferometric data collected within Muskeget Channel, Massachusetts

Swath interferometric bathymetery data were collected within and around Muskeget Channel and along select nearshore areas south and east of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts. Data were collected aboard the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Rafael in October and November 2010 in a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. This report describes the data-collection methods and -processing steps and releases the data in geospatial format. These data were collected to support an assessment of the effect on sediment transport that a tidal instream energy conversion facility would have within Muskeget Channel. Baseline bathymetry data were obtained for the Muskeget Channel area, and surveys in select areas were repeated after one month to monitor sediment transport and bedform migration.

Massachusetts

High-resolution geophysical data collected aboard the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Rafael to supplement existing datasets from Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound, Massachusetts

Geophysical and geospatial data were collected in Buzzards Bay, in the shallow-water areas of Vineyard Sound, and in the nearshore areas off the eastern Elizabeth Islands and northern coast of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, on the U.S. Geological Survey research vessel Rafael between 2007 and 2011, in a collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. This report describes results of this collaborative effort, which include mapping the geology of the inner shelf zone of the Elizabeth Islands and the sand shoals of Vineyard Sound and studying geologic processes that contribute to the evolution of this area. Data collected during these surveys include: bathymetry, acoustic backscatter, seismic-reflection profiles, sound velocity profiles, and navigation. The long-term goals of this project are (1) to provide high-resolution geophysical data that will support research on the influence of sea-level change and sediment supply on coastal evolution and (2) to inventory subtidal marine habitats and their distribution within the coastal zone of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts

Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States

Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosion, and to inform coastal management decisions with this information. This report builds on previous work that compiled oceanographic and geomorphic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S. Atlantic coast, and developed a Bayesian Network to predict shoreline-change rates based on sea-level rise plus variables that describe the hydrodynamic and geologic setting. This report extends the previous analysis to include the Gulf and Pacific coasts of the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, which required using methods applied to the USGS CVI dataset to extract data for these regions. The Bayesian Network converts inputs that include observations of local rates of relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, a geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and observed shoreline-change rates to calculate the probability of the shoreline-erosion rate exceeding a threshold level of 1 meter per year for the coasts of the United States. The calculated probabilities were compared to the historical observations of shoreline change to evaluate the hindcast success rate of the most likely probability of shoreline change. Highest accuracy was determined for the coast of Hawaii (98 percent success rate) and lowest accuracy was determined for the Gulf of Mexico (34 percent success rate). The minimum success rate rose to nearly 80 percent (Atlantic and Gulf coasts) when success included shoreline-change outcomes that were adjacent to the most likely outcome. Additionally, the probabilistic approach determines the confidence in calculated outcomes as the probability of the most likely outcome. The confidence was highest along the Pacific coast and it was lowest along the Alaskan coast.

Open-File Report

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrographic survey data used in a U.S. Geological Survey regional geologic framework study along the Delmarva Peninsula

The U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research effort in 2014 to define the geologic framework of the Delmarva Peninsula inner continental shelf, which included new data collection and assembly of relevant extant datasets. Between 2006 and 2011, Science Applications International Corporation, under contract to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service, carried out 23 hydrographic surveys covering more than 4,100 square kilometers of the continental shelf using Reson multibeam echosounders and Klein towed sidescan sonars to update nautical charts along the Delmarva Peninsula. Acoustic backscatter data from these instruments are valuable for characterizing aspects of shallow geologic framework, including seafloor geology, sediment transport pathways, and marine resources. The data cover an area that extends from the entrance of Delaware Bay, Delaware, south to Parramore Island, Virginia, in water depths of about 3 to 35 meters below mean lower low water. Data were collected along lines spaced 40 meters apart, resulting in 40 to 100 percent seafloor coverage for multibeam bathymetry. Processed bathymetric data within the Delmarva Peninsula study area are available through a National Ocean Service interactive map interface, but towed sidescan data products are limited, and multibeam backscatter data products have not been available in the past. The U.S. Geological Survey obtained raw Reson multibeam data files from Science Applications International Corporation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 20 hydrographic surveys and extracted backscatter data using the Fledermaus Geocoder Toolbox from Quality Positioning Service. The backscatter mosaics produced by the U.S. Geological Survey for the inner continental shelf of the Delmarva Peninsula using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data increased regional geophysical surveying efficiency, collaboration among government agencies, and the area over which geologic data can be interpreted by the U.S. Geological Survey. This report describes the methods by which the backscatter data were extracted and processed and includes backscatter mosaics and interpolated bathymetric surfaces.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia

Bathymetry of the waters surrounding the Elizabeth Islands, Massachusetts

The Elizabeth Islands in Massachusetts that separate Vineyard Sound from Buzzards Bay are the remnants of a moraine (unconsolidated glacial sediment deposited at an ice sheet margin; Oldale and O’Hara, 1984). The most recent glacial ice retreat in this region occurred between 25,000 and 20,000 years ago, and the subsequent rise in sea level that followed deglaciation caused differences in the seafloor character between Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound. The relatively rough seafloor of Vineyard Sound reflects widespread exposure of glacial material. Shoals mark the location of recessional ice contact material, and deep channels illustrate where meltwater drainage incised glacial deposits. Following ice retreat from the Elizabeth Islands, a glacial lake formed across the mouth of Buzzards Bay, when the lake drained, it scoured two deep channels at the southern end of the bay. Sea level rise began to inundate Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay about 8,000 years ago and continues to modify the modern seafloor (Robb and Oldale, 1977). Fine-grained marine and estuarine sediments were deposited in the partially protected setting of Buzzards Bay. These deposits, up to 10 meters in thickness, buried the high-relief glacial landscape and created the generally smooth modern seafloor. In contrast, the Vineyard Sound of today experiences strong tidal currents, which largely prevent the deposition of fine-grained material and constantly rework the glacial sand and gravel within shoals. The seafloor of the sound largely reflects the contours of the ancient glaciated landscape that existed before sea level began to rise. The bathymetric data used to create the hillshaded relief image of the seafloor were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management and supplemented with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hydrographic survey data. The map shows the detailed bathymetry of Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound with depth soundings shown on a 5-meter-per-pixel grid. Depths are coded by color where the deepest areas are in blue and the shallowest areas are in orange. The aerial photography for the Elizabeth Islands and Massachusetts mainland were obtained from the Massachusetts Office of Geographic Information. Data collected during this statewide cooperative project have been released in a series of USGS open-file reports. These publications and information regarding geologic mapping in Massachusetts can be obtained from the Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Web site (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/coastal_mass/).

Massachusetts

Geologic controls on regional and local erosion rates of three northern Gulf of Mexico barrier-island systems

The stratigraphy of sections of three barrier island systems in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (Apalachicola, Mississippi, and Chandeleur) have been mapped using geophysical and coring techniques to assess the influence of geologic variations in barrier lithosomes and adjoining inner shelf deposits on long-term rates of shoreline change at regional and local scales. Regional scale was addressed by comparing average geologic characteristics of the three areas with mean shoreline-change rates for each area. Regionally, differences in sand volume contained within the part of the barrier lithosome above sea level, sand volume on the inner shelf, and to a lesser extent, sediment grain size correlate with shoreline change rates. Larger sand volumes and coarser grain sizes are found where erosion rates are lower. Local scale was addressed by comparing alongshore variations in barrier island and inner shelf geology with alongshore variations in shoreline change. Locally, long-term shoreline change rates are highest directly shoreward of paleovalleys exposed on the inner shelf. While geology is not the sole explanation for observed differences in shoreline change along these three coastal regions, it is a significant contributor to change variability.

Journal of Coastal Research

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Alabama;Florida;Louisiana;Mississippi;Texas

Shallow geology, seafloor texture, and physiographic zones of the Inner Continental Shelf from Nahant to northern Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts

The Massachusetts inner continental shelf between Nahant and northern Cape Cod Bay has been profoundly affected by the occupation and retreat of glacial ice sheets and relative sea-level change during the Quaternary. Marine geologic mapping of this area is a component of a statewide cooperative effort involving the U.S. Geological Survey and the Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. Interpretation of high-resolution geophysical data (interferometric and multibeam swath bathymetry, lidar, backscatter, and seismic reflection), sediment samples, and bottom photographs was used to produce a series of maps that describe the distribution and texture of seafloor sediments, shallow geologic framework, and physiographic zones of this inner-shelf region. These data and interpretations are intended to aid efforts to inventory and manage coastal and marine resources, and provide baseline information for research focused on coastal evolution and environmental change.

Massachusetts

Geologic controls on sediment distribution and transport pathways around the Chandeleur Islands, LA., USA

Geophysical surveys around the Chandeleur Islands provide the necessary data to map the thickness and distribution of the Holocene deposit associated with this barrier island system. This system rests uncomformably on St. Bernard Delta deposits of the Mississippi Delta plain and is thinnest under the central part of the island chain and thickest at the northern and southern ends. The zone of divergence in the bidirectional littoral transport system coincides with the thin central part. An estimate of northward littoral transport rate based on lithosome age and the volume of sediment that has accumulated at the northern end of the transport cell suggests the average transport rate over the life of the system is greater than present day fair-weather estimates. This difference may be attributed to changes in transport rates through the life of the system, to changes in the rate of sea-level rise or to storms playing a more dominant role than fair-weather waves in littoral transport.

Louisiana