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Elizabeth A. Marschall

Publications and source records attributed to Elizabeth A. Marschall.

9 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2023

Incorporating metapopulation dynamics to inform invasive species management: Evaluating bighead and silver carp control strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals.

Illinois↗
USGS2023

Synthesizing professional opinion and published science to build a conceptual model of Walleye recruitment

Understanding and predicting recruitment, longstanding goals in fisheries science and ecology, are complicated by variation in the importance of environmental drivers coupled with the dynamic nature of individual ecosystems. Developing an understanding of recruitment from well-monitored stocks offers an opportunity to overcome these complexities. We used a systematic literature review, a survey, and a workshop attended by professionals with expertise in recruitment of Walleye Sander vitreus to identify common environmental drivers of Walleye recruitment and additional sources of variation (i.e., context dependencies) among populations. The importance of individual environmental drivers, as well as the direction of their influence, differed as a function of geographic region, lake surface area, and Walleye life stage. The literature suggested abiotic conditions (e.g., temperature) during the first year of life were influential in determining recruitment. Professional opinion noted the importance of biotic factors, with prey availability and predation risk having the most consistent relationships with recruitment. We synthesized this information to propose a conceptual model that illustrates the suite of characteristics that shape Walleye recruitment over large spatial and temporal scales. Our findings emphasize the importance of first-year growth and system-specific contextual factors, which can alter the relative importance of the environmental drivers of recruitment.

Fisheries Magazine↗
USGS2021

Mixed-stock analysis in the age of genomics: Rapture genotyping enables evaluation of stock-specific exploitation in a freshwater fish population with weak genetic structure

Mixed-stock analyses using genetic markers have informed fisheries management in cases where strong genetic differentiation occurs among local spawning populations, yet many fisheries are supported by multiple spawning stocks that are weakly differentiated. Freshwater fisheries exemplify this problem, with many harvested populations supported by multiple stocks of young evolutionary age and that are isolated across small spatial scales. As a result, attempts to conduct genetic mixed-stock analyses of inland fisheries have often been unsuccessful. Advances in genomic sequencing now offer the ability to discriminate among populations with weak population structure, by providing the necessary resolution to conduct mixed-stock assignment among previously indistinguishable stocks. We demonstrate the use of genomic data to conduct a mixed-stock analysis of Lake Erie's commercial and recreational walleye (Sander vitreus) fisheries and estimate the relative harvest of weakly differentiated stocks (pairwise FST < 0.01). We used RAD-capture (Rapture) to sequence and genotype individuals at 12,081 loci that had been previously determined to be capable of discriminating between western and eastern basin stocks with 95% reassignment accuracy. An outcome not possible in the past with microsatellite markers. Genetic assignment of 1,075 fish harvested from recreational and commercial fisheries in the eastern basin indicated that western basin stocks constituted the majority of individuals harvested during peak walleye fishing season (July – September). Composition of harvest changed seasonally, with eastern basin fish comprising much of the early season harvest (May – June). Clear spatial structure in stock-specific harvest existed; more easterly sites contained more individuals of east basin origin than did westerly sites. Our study provides important stock contribution estimates for Lake Erie fishery management and demonstrates the power of genomic data to facilitate mixed-stock analysis in exploited fish populations with weak population structure or limited existing genetic resources.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2020

Modeling larval American Shad recruitment in a large river

Climate change is altering the spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and discharge in rivers, which is expected to have implications for the life stages of anadromous fish using those rivers. We developed an individual-based model to track American Shad Alosa sapidissima offspring within a coarse template of spatially and temporally variable habitat conditions defined by a combination of temperature, river velocity, and prey availability models. We simulated spawning at each river kilometer along a 142-km reach of the Connecticut River on each day (April 1–August 31) to understand how spawning date and location drive larval recruitment differentially across years and decades (1993–2002 and 2007–2016). For both temperature and flow, interannual variation was large in comparison to interdecadal differences. Variation in simulated recruitment was best explained by a combination of season-specific spawning temperature and location along the course of the river. The greatest potential recruitment occurred during years in which June temperatures were relatively high. In years when June and July were warmer than average, maximum recruitment resulted from spawning taking place at the upstream portion of the modeled reach. Model scenarios (stationary or passive-drift larvae; and dams or no dams) had predictable effects. We assumed that the pools above dams had negative impacts on eggs and yolk-sac larvae that may have been deposited there. Allowing eggs and larvae to drift passively with the current reduced spatial differences in recruitment success among spawning sites relative to stationary eggs and larvae. Our results demonstrate the importance of spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity for producing positive recruitment over the long term. In addition, our results suggest the importance of successful passage of spawners to historical spawning sites in the Connecticut River upstream of Vernon Dam, especially as conditions shift with climate change.

New Hampshite, Massachutsetts↗
USGS2020

RAD-seq refines previous estimates of genetic structure in Lake Erie walleye

Delineating population structure helps fishery managers to maintain a diverse “portfolio” of local spawning populations (stocks), as well as facilitate stock-specific management. In Lake Erie, commercial and recreational fisheries for Walleye Sander vitreus exploit numerous local spawning populations, which cannot be easily differentiated using traditional genetic data (e.g., microsatellites). Here, we used genomic information (12,264 polymorphic loci) generated using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to investigate stock structure in Lake Erie Walleye. We found low genetic divergence (genetic differentiation index F ST = 0.0006–0.0019) among the four Lake Erie western basin stocks examined, which resulted in low classification accuracies for individual samples (40–60%). However, more structure existed between western and eastern Lake Erie basin stocks ( F ST = 0.0042–0.0064), resulting in greater than 95% classification accuracy of samples to a lake basin. Thus, our success in using genomics to identify stock structure varied with spatial scale. Based on our results, we offer suggestions to improve the efficacy of this new genetic tool for refining stock structure and eventually determining relative stock contributions in Lake Erie Walleye and other Great Lakes populations.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Ontario, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2015

Portfolio theory as a management tool to guide conservation and restoration of multi-stock fish populations

Habitat degradation and harvest have upset the natural buffering mechanism (i.e., portfolio effects) of many large-scale multi-stock fisheries by reducing spawning stock diversity that is vital for generating population stability and resilience. The application of portfolio theory offers a means to guide management activities by quantifying the importance of multi-stock dynamics and suggesting conservation and restoration strategies to improve naturally occurring portfolio effects. Our application of portfolio theory to Lake Erie Sander vitreus (walleye), a large population that is supported by riverine and open-lake reef spawning stocks, has shown that portfolio effects generated by annual inter-stock larval fish production are currently suboptimal when compared to potential buffering capacity. Reduced production from riverine stocks has resulted in a single open-lake reef stock dominating larval production, and in turn, high inter-annual recruitment variability during recent years. Our analyses have shown (1) a weak average correlation between annual river and reef larval production (&rho;̄ = 0.24), suggesting that a natural buffering capacity exists in the population, and (2) expanded annual production of larvae (potential recruits) from riverine stocks could stabilize the fishery by dampening inter-annual recruitment variation. Ultimately, our results demonstrate how portfolio theory can be used to quantify the importance of spawning stock diversity and guide management on ecologically relevant scales (i.e., spawning stocks) leading to greater stability and resilience of multi-stock populations and fisheries.

Lake Erie↗
USGS2015

Stock-specific advection of larval walleye ( Sander vitreus ) in western Lake Erie: Implications for larval growth, mixing, and stock discrimination

Physical processes can generate spatiotemporal heterogeneity in habitat quality for fish and also influence the overlap of pre-recruit individuals (e.g., larvae) with high-quality habitat through hydrodynamic advection. In turn, individuals from different stocks that are produced in different spawning locations or at different times may experience dissimilar habitat conditions, which can underlie within- and among-stock variability in larval growth and survival. While such physically-mediated variation has been shown to be important in driving intra- and inter-annual patterns in recruitment in marine ecosystems, its role in governing larval advection, growth, survival, and recruitment has received less attention in large lake ecosystems such as the Laurentian Great Lakes. Herein, we used a hydrodynamic model linked to a larval walleye ( Sander vitreus ) individual-based model to explore how the timing and location of larval walleye emergence from several spawning sites in western Lake Erie (Maumee, Sandusky, and Detroit rivers; Ohio reef complex) can influence advection pathways and mixing among these local spawning populations (stocks), and how spatiotemporal variation in thermal habitat can influence stock-specific larval growth. While basin-wide advection patterns were fairly similar during 2011 and 2012, smaller scale advection patterns and the degree of stock mixing varied both within and between years. Additionally, differences in larval growth were evident among stocks and among cohorts within stocks which were attributed to spatiotemporal differences in water temperature. Using these findings, we discuss the value of linked physical&ndash;biological models for understanding the recruitment process and addressing fisheries management problems in the world's Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2011

Migration delays caused by anthropogenic barriers: modeling dams, temperature, and success on migrating salmon smolts

Disruption to migration is a growing problem for conservation and restoration of animal populations. Anthropogenic barriers along migration paths can delay or prolong migrations, which may result in a mismatch with migration-timing adaptations. To understand the interaction of dams (as barriers along a migration path), seasonally changing environmental conditions, timing of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) downstream migration, and ultimate migration success, we used 10 years of river temperature and discharge data as a template upon which we simulated downstream movement of salmon. Atlantic salmon is a cool-water species whose downstream migrating smolts must complete migration before river temperatures become too warm. We found that dams had a local effect on survival as well as a survival effect that was spatially and temporally removed from the encounter with the dam. While smolts are delayed by dams, temperatures downstream can reach lethal or near-lethal temperatures; as a result, the match between completion of migration and the window of appropriate migration conditions can be disrupted. The strength of this spatially and temporally removed effect is at least comparable to the local effects of dams in determining smolt migration success in the presence of dams. We also considered smolts from different tributaries, varying in distance from the river mouth, to assess the potential importance of locally adapted migration timing on the effect of barriers. Migration-initiation temperature affected modeled smolt survival differentially across tributaries, with the success of smolts from upstream tributaries being much more variable across years than that of smolts with a shorter distance to travel. As a whole, these results point to the importance of broadening our spatial and temporal view when managing migrating populations. We must consider not only how many individuals never make it across migration barriers, but also the spatially and temporally removed consequences of delays at the barriers for those individuals that successfully navigate them.

Ecological Applications↗