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Douglas J. Shinneman

Publications and source records attributed to Douglas J. Shinneman.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Invasion resistance varies by fuel break type in sagebrush ecosystems

Background Wildfire is an increasingly important driver of changes within sagebrush (Artemisia spp. L.) ecosystems of the western USA, often resulting in increased spread of exotic annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), and subsequent losses of native vegetation and wildlife habitat. Fuel breaks— areas of land treated to reduce or redistribute fuel loads — are widely implemented to help prevent the spread of wildfires and provide areas to facilitate firefighting efforts. However, localized installation and maintenance of fuel breaks directly reduce or remove vegetation and may propagate the spread of exotic annual grasses into fuel break boundaries and surrounding areas, inadvertently weakening ecological resilience to disturbance. To investigate if exotic annual grass cover was associated with mowed or green strip fuel breaks across the sagebrush biome, we combined multiple data sources and methodologies. We used targeted field surveys and land-management agency monitoring data within a space-for-time substitution framework coupled with a progressive-change before-after control-impact (PC BACI) study design using historical remotely sensed vegetation cover data which allowed us to account for potential confounding effects of roads on annual grass cover. Results Models using both field collected and remotely sensed vegetation indices estimated increases in exotic annual grass cover over time following mowed fuel break installation, and higher exotic annual grass cover closer to mowed fuel breaks. These increases in exotic annual grass occurred within, at 500 m and at 1000 m from mowed fuel breaks. However, we found variable patterns of exotic annual grass after green strip fuel break installation depending on the data source. No increase in exotic annual grass were indicated by either analysis at distances greater than 500 m from green strip fuel breaks. However, our and field data analyses disagreed on the direction of the association of exotic annual grass cover and green strip fuel breaks. Conclusions Although fuel breaks are an important tool in managing wildland fire, our analysis underscores the importance of planting fire-resistant vegetation, rather than mowing alone, to reduce invasion by annual grasses within and around fuel breaks in sagebrush ecosystems. In addition, site characteristics that hinder the proliferation of exotic annual grasses could be evaluated when installing fuel breaks to minimize unintended effects of exotic annual grass on surrounding sagebrush habitat.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2024

Ecological trade-offs associated with fuel breaks in the sagebrush ecosystem

Background Unprecedented wildfire frequency, fueled by invasive annual grasses, threatens sagebrush ecosystems. To suppress wildfire and conserve sagebrush, land management agencies have installed fuel breaks across the sagebrush biome. However, despite the potential reduction in wildfire, fuel breaks may have ecological costs. Determining an acceptable balance between risks and benefits of fuel breaks is needed to avoid accelerating sagebrush loss, annual grass invasion, and habitat degradation. To evaluate the potential for ecological trade-offs to occur, we characterized the contexts in which known fuel breaks currently exist. We synthesized spatial data on all known fuel breaks and a suite of variables that may contribute to fuel break risks and benefits, including burn probabilities, predicted fuel break effectiveness, linear infrastructure, invasive annual grass cover, soil moisture conditions that confer resistance to invasion and resilience to disturbance, and priority wildlife habitats across the sagebrush biome. Results We found that within the sagebrush biome, fuel breaks are generally located in areas with high burn probability and are thus positioned well to intercept potential wildfires. However, fuel breaks are also frequently positioned in areas with lower predicted fuel break effectiveness relative to the sagebrush biome overall. Fuel breaks also are spatially associated with high invasive grass cover, indicating the need to better understand the causal relationship between fuel breaks and annual invasive grasses. We also show that the fuel break network is dense within priority wildlife habitats. Dense fuel breaks within wildlife habitats may trade off wildfire protection for decreased integrity of such habitats. Conclusions Our analyses describe the potential for fuel breaks to invoke ecological trade-offs and show that the balance of risks and benefits differs across sagebrush ecosystems. Strategic research and actions are needed to evaluate which factors tip the balance towards maximizing wildfire suppression while minimizing risk to sensitive ecological resources.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗
USGS2024

Variable climate-growth relationships of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) among Sky Island mountain ranges in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA

The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island” mountain ranges spanning portions of the north-central Great Basin. We anticipated that the growth of Great Basin aspen would be strongly influenced by regional climatic patterns and largely in synchrony. Results revealed a more complex growth dynamic that varied among mountain ranges and across environmental gradients. In particular, aspen climate-growth relationships in the slightly dryer Ruby Mountains were strongly and positively correlated (r > 0.5) with previous fall to winter moisture availability. The Jarbidge Mountains had a positive but modest relationship with previous fall to winter moisture availability (r > 0.3). Climate-growth response in the Santa Rosa Mountains, the wettest range, showed no significant response to moisture availability during any time period examined but had greater tree-ring growth with warmer May temperatures. Although tree-ring centennial (1910 – 2010) growth trends were positive for all three mountain ranges, only the Santa Rosa Mountains maintained a positive recent growth trend (1970 – 2010). Moreover, distinct temporal shifts in tree growth-climate relationships in each mountain range suggest potentially unique aspen population adaptations to climate variability. For instance, in two of the mountain ranges, there was a shift from positive/neutral to negative growth relationships with temperature starting around the 1963 – 1987 time period, while tree growth also began simultaneously responding more positively to moisture availability. These growth shifts and observed enhanced sensitivities to monthly and seasonal climate variables over time may reflect dynamic tree growth responses caused by ongoing global climate change, but that may be tempered by local or regional factors, such as the relative availability and timing of soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt. A better understanding of biogeographic variation and causality in aspen growth could provide multiple management pathways governed by resilience characteristics in the face of future anthropogenic and climatic threats.

Nevada↗
USGS2023

Ecological effects of pinyon-juniper removal in the Western United States—A synthesis of scientific research, January 2014–March 2021

Executive Summary Increasing density of pinyon ( Pinus spp. ) and juniper ( Juniperus spp. ) woodlands (hereinafter “pinyon-juniper”), as well as expansion of these woodlands into adjacent shrublands and grasslands, has altered ecosystem function and wildlife habitat across large areas of the interior western United States. Although there are many natural and human-caused drivers of woodland infilling and expansion, restoration of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp. ) habitat through removal of pinyon-juniper is considered an urgent management objective in many locations, particularly in support of sagebrush-dependent wildlife species of conservation concern. In December 2020, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Pinyon-Juniper Management Categorical Exclusion (PJCX) to expedite the regulatory process for pinyon-juniper removal projects on public lands, largely intended to benefit mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) habitats. During final preparation of this report, the BLM discontinued use of the PJCX (as of November, 2022), but the pinyon-juniper tree removal techniques assessed in this report are commonly used and understanding their effects remains relevant to land use planning. To address areas of uncertainty relative to potential ecological effects of the PJCX, we conducted a review of the peer-reviewed science literature to better understand the likely responses of vegetation, environmental (for example, soils), and wildlife variables to specific tree removal techniques permitted by the PJCX. In brief, the PJCX permitted removal of trees by either manual cutting, mechanical cutting, or mastication; allowed certain methods to redistribute or remove resulting tree biomass after treatment; and prohibited broadcast burning, roadbuilding, removal of old-growth, and seeding of non-native species. Specifically, we conducted our review to address the following questions: How will PJCX removal techniques affect plant communities, soils, and abiotic resources? How do these pinyon-juniper removal techniques affect wildlife communities, including both woodland- and sagebrush-dependent species? What are the potential ecological implications of different pinyon-juniper removal treatment types and implementation strategies (for example, treatment sizes) over time? What are the most important gaps in our scientific understanding of how treatments might affect targeted ecosystems over space and time (for example, potential effects of climate change)? To answer these questions, we considered studies related to pinyon-juniper ecosystems, focusing on research that occurred over a large portion of the interior western United States that is the primary focus of the PJCX. We also focused on papers published from 2014 onward, to avoid excessive overlap with other recent reviews on pinyon-juniper management effects. Using strict criteria, including only considering research that tested responses for statistical significance, we identified 48 papers that primarily examined treatment effects on vegetation and other environmental variables (1,709 responses), and 11 papers that addressed effects on wildlife (132 responses). Responses to the PJCX-permitted treatments were summarized as either positive (that is, a significant increase), negative (that is, a significant decrease), or non-significant (that is, no significant difference). Responses were assigned to categories (for example, Native Annual Grass/Forb Abundance) and hierarchical treatment levels. We found that there were large proportions of non-significant responses among all categories combined, with roughly half or more of all responses non-significant (48 percent for wildlife, 60 percent for vegetation-environmental), comparable to other recent systematic reviews of pinyon-juniper treatment effects. However, we also found that when there were significant responses, some important trends potentially emerged. Important undesirable outcomes included far more positive than negative responses of exotic grass and forb abundance among nearly all treatment types. Cutting treatments were also more likely to decrease biocrust cover and microbial activity. Potentially beneficial outcomes included mostly positive responses among sagebrush obligate species, including more positive than negative responses for mule deer and sage-grouse. Some treatment types (for example, mastication) also resulted in more positive than negative responses for native grasses and forbs (although, non-significant responses were the majority). We also highlighted many limitations of this review, including how responses often come from few studies, and how some response-treatment category combinations lack adequate response data. Moreover, the existing research is often insufficient to address many key questions about treatment effects, largely owing to short time-scales and limited spatial extents of observations, which do not match the size of treatments being implemented by land managers, nor capture long-term, post-treatment ecological dynamics. We also identify a lack of research that addresses key interactions that could undermine restoration objectives, including potential effects of climate change and grazing on post-treatment environments. Thus, we emphasize the importance of integrating these factors into future pinyon-juniper treatment research, and we stress the need for use of monitoring programs and research studies that partake in data collection and analysis over long durations and broad spatial scales.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Implications of tree expansion in shrubland ecosystems for two generalist avian predators

Shrublands globally have undergone structural changes due to plant invasions, including the expansion of native trees. Removal of native conifer trees, especially juniper ( Juniperus spp .), is occurring across the Great Basin of the western U.S. to support declining sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) habitats and associated wildlife species, such as greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). One justification for conifer removal is that it may improve survival of sagebrush-associated wildlife by reducing the abundance of avian predators. However, the relationship between conifer expansion and predator distributions has not been explicitly evaluated. Further, although structural characteristics of habitat are important for generalist predators, overall prey abundance may also affect habitat use by predators. We examined habitat use of common ravens ( Corvus corax ) and red-tailed hawks ( Buteo jamaicensis ), two generalist predators whose populations are increasing in western North America, to variation in structural characteristics and prey distributions in sagebrush habitat that has experienced conifer expansion. Structural characteristics of habitat were important predictors of habitat use for both ravens and red-tailed hawks, whereas measures of prey abundance were unimportant for both species likely because generalist predators can use a wide variety of food resources. Ravens, but not red-tailed hawks, responded positively to increasing cover of juniper and the probability of habitat use was highest (> 0.95) where juniper cover within 100 m was > 20%. Habitat use by red-tailed hawks, but not ravens, was greater near cliffs but was not associated with juniper cover. Our study suggests that the removal of conifer in similar environments may lower the probability of habitat use for ravens, a common predator with significant impacts on many prey species. Therefore, we suggest conifer removal may improve sage-grouse reproductive success and survival depending on responses to conifer removal from other predators. Our results may be reflective of similar changes in rangeland ecosystems around the world undergoing expansion of conifer and other woody vegetation. Though species identities differ from sagebrush habitats, generalist avian predators in other habitats may have similar relationships with structural resources.

Idaho↗
USGS2023

Assessing large landscape patterns of potential fire connectivity using circuit methods

Context Minimizing negative impacts of wildfire is a major societal objective in fire-prone landscapes. Models of fire connectivity can aid in understanding and managing wildfires by analyzing potential fire spread and conductance patterns. We define ‘fire connectivity’ as the landscape’s capacity to facilitate fire transmission from one point on the landscape to another. Objectives Our objective was to develop an approach for modeling fire connectivity patterns representing potential fire spread and relative flow across a broad landscape extent, particularly in the management-relevant context of fuel breaks. Methods We applied an omnidirectional circuit theory algorithm to model fire connectivity in the Great Basin of the western United States. We used predicted rates of fire spread to approximate conductance and calculated current densities to identify connections among areas with high spread rates. We compared existing and planned fuel breaks with fire connectivity patterns. Results Fire connectivity and relative flow outputs were characterized by spatial heterogeneity in the landscape’s capacity to transmit fire. We found that existing fuel break networks were denser in areas with relatively diffuse and impeded flow patterns, rather than in locations with channelized flow. Conclusions This approach could be paired with traditional fire behavior and risk analyses to better understand wildfire spread as well as direct strategic placement of individual fuel breaks within larger networks to constrain fire spread. Thus, our findings may offer local- to landscape-level support for management actions that aim to disrupt fire spread and mitigate the costs of fire on the landscape.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗
USGS2023

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities’ innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2023

Future direction of fuels management in sagebrush rangelands

Sagebrush ecosystems in the United States have been declining since EuroAmerican settlement, largely due to agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and altered fire regimes, resulting in loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat. To combat continued conversion to undesirable ecological states and loss of habitat to invasive species fueled by frequent fire, a variety of fuel treatments, including networks of fuel breaks, are being implemented or proposed in sagebrush ecosystems, particularly in and around the Great Basin. In this forum paper we briefly review current knowledge of common fuel treatment approaches, their intended benefits, potential risks, and limitations. We additionally discuss challenges for fuel treatment strategies in the context of changes in climate, invasive species, wildlife habitat, and human population, and we explore how advances in geospatial technologies, monitoring, and fire behavior modeling, as well as accounting for social context, can improve the efficacy of fuels management in sagebrush ecosystems. Finally, given continued potential for ecosystem transformation, we describe approaches to future fuels management by considering the applicability of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework. The intent of the paper is to provide scientists and land managers with key information and a forward-thinking framework for fuels science and adaptive management that can respond to both expected and unexpected changes in sagebrush rangelands.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2023

Trends, impacts, and cost of catastrophic and frequent wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Fire regimes in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems have been greatly altered across the western United States. Broad-scale invasion of non-native annual grasses, climate change, and human activities have accelerated wildfire cycles, increased fire size and severity, and lengthened fire seasons in many sagebrush ecosystems to the point that current wildfire-management practices and postfire restoration efforts cannot keep pace to ameliorate the ecological consequences of sagebrush ecosystem loss. The greatest impact of uncharacteristically frequent fire is the transition from native sagebrush-perennial grass communities to invasive, non-native, annual grasslands that are highly flammable. These community transitions are often permanent, owing to the low probability of reestablishing native perennial plants in non-native annual grass−dominated communities. Moreover, these grasses can form extensive and continuous fine fuel loads that promote more frequent fire and the continued expansion of invasive, non-native annuals. More frequent, larger, and severe wildfires necessitate greater resources for fire-prevention, fire-suppression, and postfire restoration activities, while decreasing critical ecosystem services, economic and recreational opportunities, and cultural traditions. Increased flexibility and better prioritization of management activities based on ecological needs, including commitment to long-term prefire and postfire management, are needed to achieve notable reductions in uncharacteristic wildfire activity and associated negative impacts. Collaboration and partnerships across jurisdictional boundaries, agencies, and disciplines can improve consistency in sagebrush-management approaches and thereby contribute to this effort. Here, we provide a synthesis on sagebrush wildfire trends and the impacts of uncharacteristic fire regimes on sagebrush plant communities, dependent wildlife species, fire-suppression costs, and ecosystem services. We also provide an overview of wildland fire coordination efforts among federal, state, and tribal entities.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗
USGS2021

U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned with the needs of the fire science stakeholder community–fire, land, natural resource, and emergency managers from Federal, State, Tribal, and community organizations, as well as members of the scientific community. The Strategic Plan is composed of four integrated priorities, each with associated goals and specific strategies for accomplishing the goals: Priority 1: Produce state-of-the-art, actionable fire science; Priority 2: Engage stakeholders in science production and science delivery; Priority 3: Effectively communicate USGS fire science capacity, products, and information to a broad audience; and Priority 4: Enhance USGS organizational structure and advance support for fire science. The priorities of this Strategic Plan define the USGS’s commitment to producing and delivering cutting edge fire science, information, and decision-support tools in support of national, regional, and local priorities and stakeholder needs.

Circular↗
USGS2021

Performance of the ecosystem demography model (EDv2.2) in simulating gross primary production capacity and activity in a dryland study area

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle, including regulating the inter-annual global carbon sink. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are essential tools that can help us better understand carbon cycling in different ecosystems. Currently, there is limited knowledge of the performance of these models in drylands partly due to characterizing the heterogeneity of the vegetation and hydrometeorological conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of a DGVM for drylands to facilitate improved understanding of gross primary production (GPP) as one of the important components of the carbon cycle. We performed a sensitivity analysis and calibrated the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) DGVM to simulate GPP in a dryland watershed (Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho) in the western US for the years 2000-2017. GPP capacity and activity were investigated by comparing model simulations with GPP estimated from eddy covariance data (available from 2015-2017) and remote sensing products (2000-2017). Our results show good performance of EDv2.2 at daily timesteps ( R M S E ≈ 0.38 [ kgC / m 2 / year ] ) "> RMSE≈0.38[kgC/m2/year])

Idaho↗
USGS2021

Fire frequency impacts soil properties and processes in sagebrush steppe ecosystems of the Columbia Basin

Increased fire frequency in semi-arid ecosystems can alter biochemical soil properties and soil processes that underpin ecosystem structure and functioning, thus threatening native plant communities and the species that rely on them. However, there is much uncertainty about the magnitude of change as soils are exposed to more fires, because soil recovery and changes in fire severity following a first fire mediate the impact of successive fires on soil properties. With this study we aim to evaluate how increased fire frequency affects soil biochemical properties (i.e. soil pH, soil organic matter (SOM), soil organic carbon (SOC), soil structure and mineral N) and processes (i.e. microbial and enzymatic activity) in a sagebrush-steppe ecosystem located in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA. During 2016, we collected soils from once (2012), twice (2003 and 2012), and thrice (2003, 2007, and 2012) burned areas, enabling us to test the hypothesis that increasing fire frequency will exacerbate the impact of fire on soil properties and processes. Our study yielded three main results: (1) fire reduced the total soil C concentration and soil C in aggregates relative to unburned soil, but only when soil was exposed to fire once (i.e. the most recent fire), (2) compared to the unburned soils, SOM contents, enzyme activity and microbial CO 2 respiration were suppressed in the once and thrice burned soils, but not in the twice burned soils, and (3) fire increased NO 3 − -N contents across the once and twice burned sites, and reduced enzyme activity associated with N cycling in the thrice burned sites. Taken together, our findings suggest that a one-time fire in this shrub dominated semi-arid ecosystem significantly changes soil biochemical attributes and microbially driven processes. With sufficient time between fires, these structural and functional properties can partially recover, and this may persist even after a second fire, but recovery is limited when a third fire creates an additional disturbance at a shorter time interval. Furthermore, while soil C pools and microbial decomposition processes were able to recover with sufficient time, greater soil resource availability prevailed in soil across all fire frequencies, indicating that fire is likely to promote invasion and reduce ecosystem stability, even when other soil properties recover.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Disentangling the effects of multiple fires on spatially interspersed sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities

Questions Relative to a landscape with a mosaic of two sagebrush community types and increasing fire frequency, we asked: (a) do vegetation characteristics vary significantly with number of times burned for each sagebrush community; (b) how do vegetation responses to different fire frequencies compare between the two sagebrush communities? Location Columbia Plateau Ecoregion, Washington, USA. Methods We sampled vegetation across a landscape that burned three times over a 10‐year period in two sagebrush community types that are interspersed on unique land forms: big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ) communities that occur on small “mounds” and scabland sagebrush ( A. rigida ) communities that occur on surrounding “flats.” Spatially overlapping fires permitted a balanced sampling design to assess unburned and once‐, twice‐, and thrice‐burned locations for each land form/community type. We utilized a suite of statistical analyses to determine differences among plant functional groups and biomass among unburned/burned strata by land form and compared results between land forms. Results Big sagebrush and scabland sagebrush communities responded uniquely to multiple fires, due to different fuel loadings, fire severities, succession and invasion dynamics. Big sagebrush experienced nearly complete shrub loss and conversion from exotic‐invaded shrubland to exotic annual grassland after only one fire. In contrast, scabland sagebrush retained a minor shrub component and higher relative cover of native herbaceous species, even after three fires. Both communities retained cover of native perennial grasses, including shallow‐ and deep‐rooted species, likely reflecting decreasing fire intensity with number of times burned. Conclusions Despite different community‐level responses, increasing fire frequency is transforming the entire landscape to a non‐native/native grassland mix. Quantifying unique ecosystem responses to altered wildfire regimes is critical to understanding the relative resilience of communities to disturbance and their resistance to exotic species invasion (and community type conversion). Management actions may help to maintain spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems and fire‐tolerant native species.

Washington↗
USGS2020

Post-fire aspen (Populus tremuloides) regeneration varies in response to winter precipitation across a regional climate gradient

Altered climate and changing fire regimes are synergistically impacting forest communities globally, resulting in deviations from historical norms and creation of novel successional dynamics. These changes are particularly important when considering the stability of a keystone species such as quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), which contributes critical ecosystem services across its broad North American range. As a relatively drought intolerant species, projected changes of altered precipitation timing, amount, and type (e.g. snow or rain) may influence aspen response to fire, especially in moisture-limited and winter precipitation-dominated portions of its range. Aspen is generally considered an early-seral species that benefits from fire, but increases in fire activity across much of the western United States could affect the species in unpredictable ways. This study examined post-fire aspen stands across a regional climate gradient spanning from the north-central Great Basin to the northeastern portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (USA). We investigated the influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variables, snowpack, and site conditions (e.g. browsing levels, topography) on density of post-fire aspen regeneration (i.e. all small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (i.e. small trees ≥2 m tall ha −1 ) across 15 fires that occurred between 2000 and 2009. The range of post-fire regeneration (2500–71,600 small trees ha −1 ) and recruitment (0–32,500 small trees ≥2 m ha −1 ) densities varied widely across plots. Linear mixed effects models demonstrated that both response variables increased primarily with early winter (Oct-Dec) precipitation during the ‘fire-regen period’ (i.e., fire year and five years after fire) relative to the 30-year mean. The 30-year mean of early winter precipitation and fire-regen period snowpack were also positively related to recruitment densities. Both response variables decreased with higher shrub cover, highlighting the importance of considering shrub competition in post-fire environments. Regeneration and recruitment densities were negatively related to proportion browsed aspen leaders and animal pellet densities (no./m 2 ), respectively, indicating the influence of ungulate browsing even at the relatively low levels observed across sites. A post-hoc exploratory analysis suggests that deviation in early winter precipitation during the fire-regen period (relative to 30-year means) varied among sites along directional gradients, emphasizing the need to consider multiple spatiotemporal scales when investigating climate effects on post-fire successional dynamics. We discuss our findings in terms of dynamic management and conservation strategies in light of changing fire regimes and climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2020

Long term persistence of aspen in snowdrift-dependent ecosystems

Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) forests throughout the western United States have experienced significant mortality in recent decades, much of which has been influenced by climate variability, especially drought. In the western portion of its range, where most precipitation arrives during winter as snowfall and summers are dry, snowdrifts that persist into the growing season provide soil moisture recharge that sustain many aspen groves that are important locations of biodiversity within the landscape. There is growing concern that reduced snowpack due to climate change may reduce the long-term persistence and productivity of aspen communities in these regions. In this study, we evaluated the potential for climate change and drought to reduce or eliminate isolated aspen communities in southwestern Idaho. We used a landscape simulation model integrated with inputs from an empirically derived biogeochemical model of growth, and a species distribution model of regeneration to forecast how changes in climate, declining snowpack, and competition with a conifer species is likely to affect aspen occupancy over the next 85-years. We found that simulated reductions in snowpack depth (and associated increases in climatic water deficit) caused a reduction in aspen persistence; aspen occupancy was reduced under all high emissions climate scenarios. Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) occupancy also declined under all future climates. Aspen regeneration declined over the course of all simulations, with an ensemble ratio of mortality/establishment increasing over the course of both low and high emissions climate scenarios. Climate-induced mortality of aspen clones increased in frequency under all climate scenarios and, under the most severe emissions scenarios, contributed to a substantial decline of aspen cover. Our research suggests that snowbanks will be an important determinant of long-term persistence of aspen under changing climate in the region.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

Understanding the effect of fire on vegetation composition and gross primary production in a semi-arid shrubland ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Wildfires in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) dominated semi-arid ecosystems in the western United States have increased dramatically in frequency and severity in the last few decades. Severe wildfires often lead to the loss of native sagebrush communities and change the biogeochemical conditions which make it difficult for sagebrush to regenerate. Invasion of cheat- grass (Bromus tectorum) accentuates the problem by making the ecosystem more susceptible to frequent burns. Managers have implemented several techniques to cope with the cheatgrass-fire cycle, ranging from controlling undesirable fire effects by removing fuel loads either mechanically or via prescribed burns, to seeding the fire-affected areas with shrubs and native perennial forbs. There have been a number of studies at local scales to understand the direct impacts of wildfire on vegetation, however, there is a larger gap in understanding these impacts at broad spatial and temporal scales. This need highlights the importance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and remote sensing. In this study, we explored the influence of fir on vegetation composition and gross primary production (GPP) in the sagebrush ecosystem using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model, a dynamic global vegetation model. We selected Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) to run our simulation study, an intensively monitored sagebrush-dominated ecosystem in the northern Great Basin. We ran point-based simulations at four existing flux-tower sites in the study area for a total 150 years after turning on the fire module in the 25th year. Results suggest dominance of shrubs in a non-fire scenario, however under the fire scenario we observed contrasting phases of high and low shrub density and C3 grass growth. Regional model simulations showed a gradual decline in GPP for fire-introduced areas through the initial couple of years instead of killing all the vegetation in the affected area in the first year itself. We also compared the results from EDv2.2 with satellite-derived GPP estimates for the areas in RCEW burned by a wildfire in 2015 (Soda Fire). We observed moderate pixel-level correlations between maps of post-fire recovery EDv2.2 GPP and MODIS derived GPP. This study contributes to understanding the application of ecosystem models to investigate temporal dynamics of vegetation under alternative fire regimes and post-fire ecosystem restoration.

Idaho↗
USGS2019

Developing and optimizing shrub parameters representing sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Northern Great Basin using the Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) model

Ecosystem dynamic models are useful for understanding ecosystem characteristics over time and space because of their efficiency over direct field measurements and applicability to broad spatial extents. Their application, however, is challenging due to internal model uncertainties and complexities arising from distinct qualities of the ecosystems being analyzed. The sagebrush-steppe in western North America, for example, has substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as variability due to anthropogenic disturbance, invasive species, climate change, and altered fire regimes, which collectively make modelling dynamic ecosystem processes difficult. Ecosystem Demography (EDv2.2) is a robust ecosystem dynamic model, initially developed for tropical forests, that simulates energy, water, and carbon fluxes at fine scales. Although EDv2.2 has since been tested on different ecosystems via development of different Plant Function Types (PFT), it still lacks a shrub PFT. In this study, we developed and parameterized a shrub PFT representative of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in order to initialize and test it within EDv2.2, and to promote future broad-scale analysis of restoration activities, climate change, and fire regimes in the sagebrush-steppe. Specifically, we parameterized the sagebrush PFT within EDv2.2 to estimate gross primary production (GPP), using data from two sagebrush study sites in the northern Great Basin. To accomplish this, we employed a three-tier approach: 1) To initially parameterize the sagebrush PFT, we fitted allometric relationships for sagebrush using field-collected data, information from existing sagebrush literature, and parameters from other land models. 2) To determine influential parameters in GPP prediction, we used a sensitivity analysis to identify the five most sensitive parameters. 3) To improve model performance and validate results, we optimized these five parameters using an exhaustive search method to estimate GPP, and compared results with observations from two Eddy Covariance (EC) sites in the study area. Our modeled results were encouraging, with reasonable fidelity to observed values, although some negative biases (i.e., seasonal underestimates of GPP) were apparent.

Great Basin↗