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Donna S. Francy

Publications and source records attributed to Donna S. Francy.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Quality-Assurance Plan for Water-Quality Activities in the USGS Ohio Water Science Center

In accordance with guidelines set forth by the Office of Water Quality in the Water Resources Discipline of the U.S. Geological Survey, a quality-assurance plan has been written for use by the Ohio Water Science Center in conducting water-quality activities. This quality-assurance plan documents the standards, policies, and procedures used by the Ohio Water Science Center for activities related to the collection, processing, storage, analysis, and publication of water-quality data. The policies and procedures documented in this quality-assurance plan for water-quality activities are meant to complement the Ohio Water Science Center quality-assurance plans for water-quality monitors, the microbiology laboratory, and surface-water and ground-water activities.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Nowcasting Beach Advisories at Ohio Lake Erie Beaches

Data were collected during the recreational season of 2007 to test and refine predictive models at three Lake Erie beaches. In addition to E. coli concentrations, field personnel collected or compiled data for environmental and water-quality variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations including turbidity, wave height, water temperature, lake level, rainfall, and antecedent dry days and wet days. At Huntington (Bay Village) and Edgewater (Cleveland) during 2007, the models provided correct responses 82.7 and 82.1 percent of the time; these percentages were greater than percentages obtained using the previous day?s E. coli concentrations (current method). In contrast, at Villa Angela during 2007, the model provided correct responses only 61.3 percent of the days monitored. The data from 2007 were added to existing datasets and the larger datasets were split into two (Huntington) or three (Edgewater) segments by date based on the occurrence of false negatives and positives (named ?season 1, season 2, season 3?). Models were developed for dated segments and for combined datasets. At Huntington, the summed responses for separate best models for seasons 1 and 2 provided a greater percentage of correct responses (85.6 percent) than the one combined best model (83.1 percent). Similar results were found for Edgewater. Water resource managers will determine how to apply these models to the Internet-based ?nowcast? system for issuing water-quality advisories during 2008.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Models for predicting recreational water quality at Lake Erie beaches

Data collected from four Lake Erie beaches during the recreational seasons of 2004-05 and from one Lake Erie beach during 2000-2005 were used to develop predictive models for recreational water quality by means of multiple linear regression. The best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables including turbidity, rainfall, wave height, water temperature, day of the year, wind direction, and lake level. Two types of outputs were produced from the models: the predicted Escherichia coli concentration and the probability that the bathing-water standard will be exceeded. The model for one of beaches, Huntington Reservation (Huntington), was validated in 2005. For 2005, the Huntington model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedance of the standard than did current methods for assessing recreational water quality, which are based on the previous day's E. coli concentration. Predictions based on the Huntington model have been available to the public through an Internet-based 'nowcasting' system since May 30, 2006. The other beach models are being validated for the first time in 2006. The methods used in this study to develop and test predictive models can be applied at other similar coastal beaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2006

Use of Spatial Sampling and Microbial Source-Tracking Tools for Understanding Fecal Contamination at Two Lake Erie Beaches

Source-tracking tools were used to identify potential sources of fecal contamination at two Lake Erie bathing beaches: an urban beach (Edgewater in Cleveland, Ohio) and a beach in a small city (Lakeshore in Ashtabula, Ohio). These tools included identifying spatial patterns of Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations in each area, determining weather patterns that caused elevated E. coli, and applying microbial source tracking (MST) techniques to specific sites. Three MST methods were used during this study: multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) indexing of E. coli isolates and the presence of human-specific genetic markers within two types of bacteria, the genus Bacteroides and the species Enterococcus faecium. At Edgewater, sampling for E. coli was done during 2003-05 at bathing-area sites, at nearshore lake sites, and in shallow ground water in foreshore and backshore areas. Spatial sampling at nearshore lake sites showed that fecal contamination was most likely of local origin; E. coli concentrations near the mouths of rivers and outfalls remote to the beach were elevated (greater than 235 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters (CFU/100 mL)) but decreased along transport pathways to the beach. In addition, E. coli concentrations were generally highest in bathing-area samples collected at 1- and 2-foot water depths, midrange at 3-foot depths, and lowest in nearshore lake samples typically collected 150 feet from the shoreline. Elevated E. coli concentrations at bathing-area sites were generally associated with increased wave heights and rainfall, but not always. E. coli concentrations were often elevated in shallow ground-water samples, especially in samples collected less than 10 feet from the edge of water (near foreshore area). The interaction of shallow ground water and waves may be a mechanism of E. coli storage and accumulation in foreshore sands. Infiltration of bird feces through sand with surface water from rainfall and high waves may be concentrating E. coli in shallow ground water in foreshore and backshore sands. At Lakeshore, sampling for E. coli was done at bathing-area, nearshore lake, and parking-lot sites during 2004-05. Low concentrations of E. coli at nearshore lake sites furthest from the shoreline indicated that fecal contamination was most likely of local origin. High concentrations of E. coli in water and bed sediments at several nearshore lake sites showed that contamination was emanating from several points along the shoreline during wet and dry weather, including the boat ramp, an area near the pond drainage, and parking-lot sediments. Physical evidence confirmed that runoff from the parking lot leads to degradation of water quality at the beach. MST samples were collected to help interpret spatial findings and determine whether sources of fecal contamination were from wastewater or bird feces and if a human-specific marker was present. MAR indices were useful in distinguishing between bird feces and wastewater sources because they were about 10 times higher in the latter. The results from MAR indices agreed with results from the two human-specific markers in some but not all of the samples tested. Bacteroides and enterococci human-specific markers were found on one day at Edgewater and two days at Lakeshore. On three days at Edgewater and two days at Lakeshore, the MAR index indicated a mixed source, but neither marker was found in bathing-water samples; this may be because bacterial indicator concentrations were too low to detect a marker. Multiple tools are needed to help identify sources of fecal contamination at coastal beaches. Spatial sampling identified patterns in E. coli concentrations and yielded information on the physical pathways of contamination. MST methods provided information on whether the source was likely of human or nonhuman origin only; however, MST did not provide information on the pathways of contamination.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

Environmental factors and chemical and microbiological water-quality constituents related to the presence of enteric viruses in ground water from small public water supplies in southeastern Michigan

A study of small public ground-water-supply wells that produce water from discontinuous sand and gravel aquifers was done from July 1999 through July 2001 in southeastern Michigan. Samples were collected to determine the occurrence of viral pathogens and microbiological indicators of fecal contamination (“indicators”), determine whether indicators are adequate predictors of the presence of enteric viruses, and determine the factors that affect the presence of enteric viruses. Small systems are those that serve less than 3,300 people. Samples were analyzed for specific enteric viruses by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), for culturable viruses by cell culture, and for the indicators total coliforms, Escherichia coli (E. coli) , enterococci, and F-specific and somatic coliphage. Ancillary environmental and water-quality data were collected or compiled. A total of 169 regular samples and 32 replicate pairs were collected from 38 wells. Replicate pairs were samples collected at the same well on the same date. One well was sampled 6 times, 30 wells were sampled five times, 6 wells were sampled twice, and 1 well was sampled once. By use of RT-PCR, enterovirus was found in four wells (10.5 percent) and hepatitis A virus (HAV) in five wells (13.2 percent). In two of these wells, investigators found both enterovirus and HAV, but on different sampling dates. Culturable viruses were found one time in two wells (5.9 percent), and neither of these wells was positive for viruses by use of RT-PCR on any sampling date. If results for all viruses are combined, 9 of the 38 small public-supply wells were positive for enteric viruses (23.7 percent) by either cell culture or RT-PCR. One or more indicators were found in 18 of 38 wells. Total coliforms, E. coli , enterococci, and F-specific and somatic coliphage were found in 34.2, 10.5, 15.8, 5.9, and 5.9 percent, respectively, of the wells tested. In only 3 out of 18 wells were samples positive for an indicator on more than one date at the same well. The co-occurrence of enteric viruses and any indicator was 55.6 percent; five out of the nine virus-positive wells were also found to be positive for an indicator. Two wells with detections of viruses had a detection of total coliforms, one well had a detection of E. coli , one of enterococci, and one of F-specific coliphage. On a per sample basis, of 11 samples that were positive for enteric viruses, indicator bacteria co-occurred in only 2 samples, and coliphage were not present in any. More virus-positive samples were found at sites served by septic systems than those served by sewerlines. Sampling condition (ground water or a mixture of tank and ground water), distance to septic system, type of and distance to nearest surface-water body, well characteristics, or land use were not related to the presence of viruses or indicators. Among continuous water-quality variables, statistically significant relations were found between total coliforms and dissolved organic carbon and between total coliforms and iron. There was a statistically significant relation between chloride concentrations >20 mg/L and detections of total coliforms. Presence of nitrate and nitrite was related to the presence of other indicators ( E. coli , enterococci, and F-specific and somatic coliphage) or enteric viruses, but not to total coliforms. The data indicated that chloride-to-bromide (C1:Br) ratios may be useful as a screening tool for total coliforms and enteric viruses but not for E. coli , enterococci, and F-specific and somatic coliphage. This study provides evidence for fecal contamination of ground water from small public-supply wells, at least on an intermittent basis. Collecting data on multiple lines of evidence would be needed to reliably predict the presence of enteric viruses and protect public health. Future data collection toward this end could include repeat sampling several times a year for different indicators, measuring dissolved-organic carbon, nitrate plus nitrite, and (or) chloride concentrations, or determining C1:Br ratios. The presence of a site served by a septic system is an indication that the well may be more vulnerable to contamination than a site served by a sewerline.

Michigan↗
USGS2003

Chapter A7. Section 7.3. Protozoan Pathogens

Protozoan pathogens are widely distributed in the aquatic environment. Cryptosporidium and Giardia are the principal protozoan pathogens that are known to affect the acceptability of water supplies for public use within the United States. A sampling program for protozoan pathogens should be conducted over an extended period of time because of cyclical and seasonal variations in their concentrations in the environment. This report provides information on the equipment, sampling protocols, and laboratory method that are in standard use by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel for the collection of data on protozoan pathogens. Each chapter of the National Field Manual is published separately and revised periodically. Newly published and revised chapters will be announced on the USGS Home Page on the World Wide Web under 'New Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey.'

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗
USGS2003

Escherichia coli at Ohio bathing beaches—Distribution, sources, wastewater indicators, and predictive modeling

Results of studies during the recreational seasons of 2000 and 2001 strengthen the science that supports monitoring of our Nation's beaches. Water and sediment samples were collected and analyzed for concentrations of Escherichia coli ( E. coli ). Ancillary water-quality and environmental data were collected or compiled to determine their relation to E. coli concentrations. Data were collected at three Lake Erie urban beaches (Edgewater, Villa Angela, and Huntington), two Lake Erie beaches in a less populated area (Mentor Headlands and Fairport Harbor), and one inland-lake beach (Mosquito Lake). The distribution of E. coli in water and sediments within the bathing area, outside the bathing area, and near the swash zone was investigated at the three Lake Erie urban beaches and at Mosquito Lake. (The swash zone is the zone that is alternately covered and exposed by waves.) Lake-bottom sediments from outside the bathing area were not significant deposition areas for E. coli . In contrast, interstitial water and subsurface sediments from near the swash zone were enriched with E. coli . For example, E. coli concentrations were as high as 100,000 colonies per 100 milliliters in some interstitial waters. Although there are no standards for E. coli in swash-zone materials, the high concentrations found at some locations warrant concern for public health. Studies were done at Mosquito Lake to identify sources of fecal contamination to the lake and bathing beach. Escherichia coli concentrations decreased with distance from a suspected source of fecal contamination that is north of the beach but increased at the bathing beach. This evidence indicated that elevated E. coli concentrations at the bathing beach are of local origin rather than from transport of bacteria from sites to the north. Samples collected from the three Lake Erie urban beaches and Mosquito Lake were analyzed to determine whether wastewater indicators could be used as surrogates for E. coli at bathing beaches. None of the concentrations of wastewater indicators of fecal contamination, including 3b-coprostanol and cholesterol, were significantly correlated (a=0.05) to concentrations of E. coli . Concentrations of the two compounds that were significantly correlated to E. coli were components of coal tar and asphalt, which are not necessarily indicative of fecal contamination. Data were collected to build on an earlier 1997 study to develop and test multiple-linear-regression models to predict E. coli concentrations using water-quality and environmental variables as explanatory variables. The probability of exceeding the single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli (235 colonies per 100 milliliters) was used as the model output variable. Threshold probabilities for each model were established. Computed probabilities that are less than a threshold probability indicate that bacterial water quality is most likely acceptable. Computed probabilities equal to or above the threshold probability indicate that the water quality is most likely not acceptable and that a water-quality advisory may be needed. Models were developed at each beach, whenever possible, using combinations of 1997, 2000, and (or) 2001 data. The models developed and tested in this study were shown to be beach specific; that is, different explanatory variables were used to predict the probability of exceeding the standard at each beach. At Mentor Headlands and Fairport Harbor, models were not developed because water quality was generally good. At the three Lake Erie urban beaches, models were developed with variable lists that included the number of birds on the beach at the time of sampling, lake-current direction, wave height, turbidity, streamflow of a nearby river, and rainfall. The models for Huntington explained a larger percentage of the variability in E. coli concentrations than the models for Edgewater and Villa Angela. At Mosquito Lake, a model based on 2000 and 2001 data contained the explanatory variables rainfall, number of dry days preceding a rainfall, date, wind direction, wind speed, and turbidity. Additional research could include testing the threshold probabilities assigned for these models in subsequent years and comparing the models’ ability to predict recreational water quality to results from the current method—using antecedent E. coli concentrations. Each year the model is tested, new data can be added and model variables can be recalculated to determine whether the predictive ability improves with additional data.

Ohio↗
USGS2002

Forecasting bacteria levels at bathing beaches in Ohio

The U.S. Geological Survey developed models for predicting exceedance of the bathing-water standard for Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) at three Lake Erie beaches and one inland lake in Ohio. The statistical models were specific to each beach, and the best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality variables as explanatory factors. For the Lake Erie beaches, these factors included wave height, number of birds on the beach at the time of sampling, lake-current direction, rainfall, turbidity, and streamflow of a nearby river. For the inland lake, these factors included date, wind direction and speed, number of birds, and rainfall. The prediction error in the models was too large to accurately estimate concentrations of E. coli ; however, the models can be used like weather forecasts to predict the probability, given a set of input variables, that the Ohio bathing-water standard used to judge swimming safety will be exceeded.

Ohio↗
USGS2000

Occurrence and distribution of microbiological indicators in groundwater and stream water

A total of 136 stream water and 143 groundwater samples collected in five important hydrologic systems of the United States were analyzed for microbiological indicators to test monitoring concepts in a nationally consistent program. Total coliforms were found in 99%, Escherichia coli in 97%, and Clostridium perfringens in 73% of stream water samples analyzed for each bacterium. Total coliforms were found in 20%, E. coli in less than 1%, and C. perfringens in none of the groundwater samples analyzed for each bacterium. Although coliphage analyses were performed on many of the samples, contamination in the laboratory and problems discerning discrete plaques precluded quantification. Land use was found to have the most significant effect on concentrations of bacterial indicators in stream water. Presence of septic systems on the property near the sampling site and well depth were found to be related to detection of coliforms in groundwater, although these relationships were not statistically significant. A greater diversity of sites, more detailed information about some factors, and a larger dataset may provide further insight to factors that affect microbiological indicators.

Water Environment Research↗
USGS2000

Microbiological monitoring for the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program

Data to characterize the microbiological quality of the Nation's fresh, marine, and estuarine waters are usually collected for local purposes, most often to judge compliance with standards for protection of public health in swimmable or drinkable waters. Methods and procedures vary with the objectives and practices of the parties collecting data and are continuously being developed or modified. Therefore, it is difficult to provide a nationally consistent picture of the microbial quality of the Nation's waters. Study objectives and guidelines for a national microbiological monitoring program are outlined in this report, using the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. A national program is designed to provide long-term data on the presence of microbiological pathogens and indicators in ground water and surface water to support effective water policy and management. Three major groups of waterborne pathogens affect the public health acceptability of waters in the United States—bacteria, protozoa, and viruses. Microbiological monitoring in NAWQA would be designed to assess the occurrence, distribution, and trends of pathogenic organisms and indicators in surface waters and ground waters; relate the patterns discerned to factors that help explain them; and improve our understanding of the processes that control microbiological water quality.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1998

How do we determine when the beaches are safe for swimming?

The use of Lake Erie and other public waters for swimming is a valuable recreational resource for the people of Ohio and elsewhere in the United States. Water-resource managers and the scientific commu­nity have recognized the need for rapid methods to determine the quality of these recreational waters to adequately protect public health. Fecal-indicator bacteria, such as Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and fecal coliforms, are used to determine the risk of contracting waterborne disease from fecal-contaminated recreational waters. Fecal-indicator bacteria are not necessarily pathogens ( disease-causing organisms), but their presence can indicate the possible presence of pathogens. Although improvements to existing sewage treatment systems are continuously being made in many areas, fecal contamination is still a possibility. Therefore, findings from carefully designed monitoring programs are needed to inform the public on the risk of swimming in fecal-contaminated waters. Current methods to assess the concentrations of fecal indicators-that is, the number of bacteria in a certain volume of water-take at least 24 hours to complete. Due to the long time frame, some scientists have suggested using other water-quality or environ­mental surrogates (substitutes) to determine these concentrations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working to address this concern in a study con­ducted at three Lake Erie beaches in the Cleveland, Ohio, area. The study has shown that turbidity (the amount of light scattered or absorbed by suspended materials in a water sample), rainfall, and wave height could be used in a statistical model to predict E. coli concentrations.

Ohio↗
USGS1998

Effects of hydrologic, biological, and environmental processes on sources and concentrations of fecal bacteria in the Cuyahoga River, with implications for management of recreational waters in Summit and Cuyahoga Counties, Ohio

Discharges of fecal bacteria (fecal coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli ) to the middle main stem of the Cuyahoga River from storm water, combined sewers, and incompletely disinfected wastewater have resulted in frequent exceedances of bacteriological water-quality standards in a 23-mile reach of the river that flows through the Cuyahoga Valley National Recreation Area. Contamination of the middle main stem of the Cuyahoga River by bacteria of fecal origin and subsequent transport to downstream areas where water-contact recreation is an important use of the river are a concern because of the potential public-health risk from the presence of enteric pathogens. Independent field investigations of bacterial decay, dilution, dispersion, transport, and sources, and bacterial contamination of streambed sediments, were completed in 1991-93 during periods of rainfall and runoff. The highest concentration of fecal coliform bacteria observed in the middle main stem during three transport studies exceeded the single-sample fecal coliform standard applicable to primary-contact recreation by a factor of approximately 1,300 and exceeded the Escherichia coli standard by a factor of approximately 8,000. The geometric-mean concentrations of fecal bacteria in the middle main stem were 6.7 to 12.3 times higher than geometric-mean concentrations in the monitored tributaries, and 1.8 to 7.0 times larger than the geometric-mean concentrations discharged from the Akron Water Pollution Control Station. Decay rates of fecal bacteria measured in field studies in 1992 ranged from 0.0018 per hour to 0.0372 per hour for fecal coliform bacteria and from 0.0022 per hour to 0.0407 per hour for Escherichia coli. Most of the decay rates measured in June and August were significantly higher than decay rates measured in April and October. Results of field studies demonstrated that concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria were 1.2 to 58 times higher in streambed sediments than in the overlying water. Sediments are likely to be a relatively less important source of fecal bacteria during rainfall and runoff in the middle main stem relative to bacterial loading from point sources. Numerical streamflow and transport simulation models were calibrated and verified with data collected during field studies. Of the constituents modeled, bacteria exhibited the poorest correspondence between observed and simulated values. The simulation results for a dye tracer indicated that the model reasonably reproduced the timing of dissolved constituents as well as dilution and dispersion effects. Calibrated and verified models for 1991 and 1992 data sets were used to simulate the improvements to bacteriological water quality that might result from reductions in concentrations of fecal bacteria discharged from two major sources. The model simulation resulting in the greatest improvement in bacteriological water-quality was one in which concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli were reduced by 90 percent in the Cuyahoga River at the Old Portage gaging station, and to geometric-mean bathing-water standards in the effluent of the Akron Water Pollution Control Station (BWS/90 scenario). Compared to the results of the base-simulation, when the BWS/90 scenario was applied in the 1991 model simulation, Escherichia coli concentrations were reduced 98.5 percent at Botzum, 97.5 percent at Jaite, and 91.1 percent at Independence. For 1992 model simulations, similar percent reductions in the concentrations of Escherichia coli were predicted at the three stream sites when the same reductions were applied to sources. None of the model simulations resulted in attainment of bacteriological water-quality standards. The potential benefits of source reductions to human health and recreational uses were estimated by comparing the number of illnesses per 1,000 people from concentrations of Escherichia coli associated with the BWS/90 simulation, with the base simulation, and with the geometric-mean standard for Escherichia coli. The predicted 22 to 26 illnesses per 1,000 people predicted by the E. coli concentrations resulting from BWS/90 simulation are 2.8 to 3.3 times higher than the 8 illnesses per 1,000 people associated with the geometric-mean primary-contact water-quality standard for Escherichia coli. Risks associated with the base simulation are 4.6 to 4.9 times higher than that associated with the geometric-mean primary- contact water-quality standard for Escherichia coli. The illness risks predicted from the BWS/90 scenario, although larger than acceptable, would nevertheless be an improvement over conditions that were encountered during field studies in 1991-93.

Ohio↗
USGS1998

Factors affecting Escherichia coli concentrations at Lake Erie public bathing beaches

The environmental and water-quality factors that affect concentrations of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water and sediment were investigated at three public bathing beachesEdgewater Park, Villa Angela, and Sims Parkin the Cleveland, Ohio metropolitan area. This study was done to aid in the determination of safe recreational use and to help water- resource managers assess more quickly and accurately the degradation of recreational water quality. Water and lake-bottom sediments were collected and ancillary environmental data were compiled for 41 days from May through September 1997. Water samples were analyzed for E. coli concentrations, suspended sediment concentrations, and turbidity. Lake- bottom sediment samples from the beach area were analyzed for E. coli concentrations and percent dry weight. Concentrations of E. coli were higher and more variable at Sims Park than at Villa Angela or Edgewater Park; concentrations were lowest at Edgewater Park. Time-series plots showed that short-term storage (less than one week) of E. coli in lake-bottom sediments may have occurred, although no evidence for long-term storage was found during the sampling period. E. coli concentrations in water were found to increase with increasing wave height, but the resuspension of E. coli from lake-bottom sediments by wave action could not be adequately assessed; higherwave heights were often associated with the discharge of sewage containing E. coli during or after a rainfall and wastewater-treatment plant overflow. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to develop models to predict recreational water quality at the in water. The related variables included turbidity, antecedent rainfall, antecedent weighted rainfall, volumes of wastewater-treatment plant overflows and metered outfalls (composed of storm-water runoff and combined-sewer overflows), a resuspension index, and wave heights. For the beaches in this study, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature, and the prswimmers were not included in the model because they were shown to be statistically unrelated to E. coli concentrations. From the several models developed, one model was chosen that accounted for 58 percent of the variability in E. coli concentrations. The chosen MLR model contained weighted categorical rainfall, beach-specific turbidity, wave height, and terms to correct for the different magnitudes of E. coli concentrations among the three beaches. For 1997, the MLR model predicted the recreational water quality as well as, and in some cases better than, antecedent E. coli concentrations (the current method). The MLR model improved the sensitivity of the prediction and the percentage of correct predictions over the current method; however, the MLR model predictions still erred to a similar degree as the current method with regard to false negatives. A false negative would allow swimming when, in fact, the bathing water standard was exceeded. More work needs to be done to validate the MLR model with data collected during other recreational seasons, especially during a season with a greater frequency and intensity of summer rains. Studies could focus on adding to the MLR model other environmental and water-quality variables that improve the predictive ability of the model. These variables might include concentrations of E. coli in deeper sediments outside the bathing area, the direction of lake currents, site-specific-rainfall amounts, time-of-day information on overflows and metered outfalls, concentrations of E. coli in treated wastewater-treatment plant effluents, and occurrences of sewage-line breaks. Rapid biological or chemical methods for determination of recreational water quality could also be used as variables in model refinements. Possible methods include the use of experimental rapid assay methods for determination of E. coli concentrations or other fecal indicators and the use of chemical tracers for fecal contamination, such as coprostanol (a degradation

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗