Implementing climate-change refugia conservation
No abstract available.
Conservation Science and Practice↗
Geology topics
Diana Stralberg
Publications and source records attributed to Diana Stralberg.
Conserving climate-change refugia: Insights from research and practice
As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change increase, conservation of climate-change refugia has become a key strategy for effective environmental stewardship. Over the last 5 years, the field of climate-change refugia conservation has made exciting advances, shifting from concepts and theory to refugia mapping and implementation. However, few studies have advanced to action on the ground; while 84% of studies identified and mapped refugia, only 4% involved implementing management action. Moreover, taxonomic and geographic gaps remain, with most studies focused on terrestrial plants and vertebrates in Europe and North America. Here, we outline impediments to implementation following the steps of the Climate-Change Refugia Conservation Cycle. Based on a systematic literature review, we elucidate advances and obstacles with examples from a diversity of systems and sectors from across the world and highlight emerging work bridging the gap between research and implementation.
Conservation Science and Practice↗
Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions
Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugia – areas that are relatively buffered from climate change – can help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.
Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
Implications of historical and contemporary processes on genetic differentiation of a declining boreal songbird: The rusty blackbird
The arrangement of habitat features via historical or contemporary events can strongly influence genomic and demographic connectivity, and in turn affect levels of genetic diversity and resilience of populations to environmental perturbation. The rusty blackbird ( Euphagus carolinus ) is a forested wetland habitat specialist whose population size has declined sharply (78%) over recent decades. The species breeds across the expansive North American boreal forest region, which contains a mosaic of habitat conditions resulting from active natural disturbance regimes and glacial history. We used landscape genomics to evaluate how past and present landscape features have shaped patterns of genetic diversity and connectivity across the species’ breeding range. Based on reduced-representation genomic and mitochondrial DNA, genetic structure followed four broad patterns influenced by both historical and contemporary forces: (1) an east–west partition consistent with vicariance during the last glacial maximum; (2) a potential secondary contact zone between eastern and western lineages at James Bay, Ontario; (3) insular differentiation of birds on Newfoundland; and (4) restricted regional gene flow among locales within western and eastern North America. The presence of genomic structure and therefore restricted dispersal among populations may limit the species’ capacity to respond to rapid environmental change.
Diversity↗
At the end of the road: Lessons learned from comparing model- and design-based approaches to estimate population sizes of boreal birds in Alberta, Canada
Estimating population abundance is a challenging task complicated by the amount, type, and quality of available data. Conservationists have relied on design-based estimates from Partners in Flight (PIF), which primarily uses roadside data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate populations sizes. However, the BBS was not designed to estimate population sizes. We developed models incorporating land cover and climate variables based on roadside and off-road point-count surveys. We calculated spatially explicit, model-based population estimates for 81 landbird species in Bird Conservation Region 6 in Alberta, Canada, and compared these to PIF estimates. We also developed a framework to evaluate how the differences between the detection distance, time-of-day, roadside count, and habitat representation adjustments explain discrepancies between the two estimators. We showed that the key assumptions of the PIF population size estimator were commonly violated in this region, and the two approaches provided very different population size estimates for most species. The average differences between estimators were explained by differences in the detection distance and time-of-day components, but these adjustments left much unexplained variation among species. Differences in the roadside count and habitat representation components explained most of the among-species variation. The variation caused by these factors was large enough to change the population size ranking of the species. The roadside count bias needs serious attention when roadside surveys are used to extrapolate over off-road areas. Habitat representation bias is likely prevalent in regions sparsely and non-representatively sampled by roadside surveys, such as the boreal region of North America, and thus population size estimates for these regions need to be treated with caution for certain species. Model-based integration of available data sources and additional sampling can contribute towards more accurate population size estimates for conservation in remote areas of North America.
Alberta↗
Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?
T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.
North America↗
Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane
Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long‐term, network‐based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
Combining physical and species‐based approaches improves refugia identification
Climate‐change refugia – locations likely to facilitate species persistence under climate change – are increasingly important components of conservation planning. Recent approaches for identifying refugia at broad scales include identifying regions that are projected to experience less severe changes (climatic exposure), that contain a diversity of physical and topographic features (environmental diversity), and that either retain or remain close to suitable climatic conditions (climate tracking, including both “species‐neutral” and species‐based approaches). We compared the degree of agreement between these approaches – with respect to their spatial coverage and other characteristics – across much of North America. This analysis found that approaches based on environmental diversity and species‐neutral climatic gradients both favored topographically complex regions, whereas climatic exposure and species‐based approaches identified regions with a range of topographic characteristics. Species‐based approaches targeting specific habitat groups identified unique regions missed by other approaches, emphasizing the importance of asking the question “refugia for what?” when prioritizing refugia. Our results highlight the necessity of including climatic exposure and species‐based information in addition to topographic diversity and climatic gradients in refugia analyses.
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest
This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.
Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗
Evaluating time-removal models for estimating availability of boreal birds during point count surveys: Sample size requirements and model complexity
We used conventional and finite mixture removal models with and without time-varying covariates to evaluate availability given presence for 152 bird species using data from point counts in boreal North America. We found that the choice of model had an impact on the estimability of unknown model parameters and affected the bias and variance of corrected counts. Finite mixture models provided better fit than conventional removal models and better adjusted for count duration. However, reliably estimating parameters and minimizing variance using mixture models required at least 200–1,000 detections. Mixture models with time-varying proportions of infrequent singers were best supported across species, indicating that accounting for date- and time-related heterogeneity is important when combining data across studies over large spatial scales, multiple sampling time frames, or variable survey protocols. Our flexible and continuous time-removal modeling framework can be used to account for such heterogeneity through the incorporation of easily obtainable covariates, such as methods, date, time, and location. Accounting for availability bias in bird surveys allows for better integration of disparate studies at large spatial scales and better adjustment of local, regional, and continental population size estimates.
Condor↗
Phylogeny and species traits predict bird detectability
Avian acoustic communication has resulted from evolutionary pressures and ecological constraints. We therefore expect that auditory detectability in birds might be predictable by species traits and phylogenetic relatedness. We evaluated the relationship between phylogeny, species traits, and field‐based estimates of the two processes that determine species detectability (singing rate and detection distance) for 141 bird species breeding in boreal North America. We used phylogenetic mixed models and cross‐validation to compare the relative merits of using trait data only, phylogeny only, or the combination of both to predict detectability. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in both singing rates and detection distances; however the strength of phylogenetic effects was less than expected under Brownian motion evolution. The evolution of behavioural traits that determine singing rates was found to be more labile, leaving more room for species to evolve independently, whereas detection distance was mostly determined by anatomy (i.e. body size) and thus the laws of physics. Our findings can help in disentangling how complex ecological and evolutionary mechanisms have shaped different aspects of detectability in boreal birds. Such information can greatly inform single‐ and multi‐species models but more work is required to better understand how to best correct possible biases in phylogenetic diversity and other community metrics.
Ecography↗
Biogeography of boreal passerine range dynamics in western North America: past, present, and future
Many of the Neotropical migrant bird species that breed throughout the Canadian boreal region are not found in the Alaskan boreal region, separated by the northwestern cordilleran mountains, despite the presence of climatically suitable habitat. We asked whether biological or climatic factors constrain certain species from crossing this geographic barrier. Analyzing a comprehensive dataset for 80 boreal passerine species, we used phylogenetic logistic regression to evaluate the relative importance of physical, migratory and competition metrics versus current and paleoclimatic suitability factors. Controlling for current climatic suitability within boreal Alaska, we found that species with the greatest climatic suitability across the northwestern cordillera, presently and also during the mid-Holocene period, were most likely to be regular breeders in the Alaskan boreal region. Migratory strategy also played a role, but could not be disentangled from its strong phylogenetic basis. Our analysis suggests that the perceived barrier of the northwestern cordillera may be easily weakened as climate change improves conditions there for many forest species. The weakening of this barrier may lead to relatively rapid range expansions and the reshuffling of species communities. Species’ realized distributional shifts will be a function of the interplay between a changing climate and static topographic features.
Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology↗