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Devy Damil Syahbana

Publications and source records attributed to Devy Damil Syahbana.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

High-resolution InSAR reveals localized pre-eruptive deformation inside the crater of Agung Volcano, Indonesia

During a volcanic crisis, high-rate, localized deformation can indicate magma close to the surface, with important implications for eruption forecasting. However, only a few such examples have been reported, because frequent, dense monitoring is needed. High-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is capable of achieving <1 m spatial resolution and sub-weekly revisit times, but is under-used. Here we use high-resolution satellite SAR imagery from COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, and Sentinel-1 to detect intra-crater uplift preceding the November 2017 onset of eruptive activity at Agung, Indonesia. Processing the SAR imagery with an up-to-date, accurate, high-resolution digital elevation model was crucial for preventing aliasing of the deformation signal and for accurate georeferencing. We show that >15 cm of line-of-sight shortening occurred over a 400-by-400 m area on the crater floor in September-October 2017, accompanying a deep seismic swarm and flank dyke intrusion. We attribute the deformation to the pressurization of a shallow (<200 m deep) hydrothermal system by the injection of magmatic gases and fluids. We also observe a second pulse of intra-crater deformation of 3–5 cm within 4 days to 11 hr prior to the first phreatomagmatic eruption, which is consistent with interaction between the hydrothermal system and the ascending magma. This phreatomagmatic eruption created the central pathway used during the final stages of magma ascent. Our observations have important implications for understanding unrest and eruption forecasting, and demonstrate the potential of monitoring with high-resolution SAR.

Agung Volcano, Bali

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano