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Dennis S. Ojima

Publications and source records attributed to Dennis S. Ojima.

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Adaptation and response in drylands: A dryland research agenda and campaign strategy

Dryland ecosystems cover 41% of Earth's land surfaces, account for 44% of cultivated lands and 60% of food sources, and make large contributions to the global water and carbon cycles. However, these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented extremes including heatwaves, floods, and droughts as well as hotter temperatures and often declining water resource availability. These ecosystems are some of the most challenging to monitor given their high temporal variability with rapid response to their environment as well as vast spatial variability with intermixing of different plant species and life forms amongst bare soil coverage. The Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) campaign was selected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as a scoping study to develop a research agenda for a dryland field campaign. Here, we detail our ARID science research agenda and implementation plan that were developed based on an extensive community engagement effort in over 160 events with over a thousand scientists, land managers, and Tribal communities between 2023 and 2024. The selected science themes cover drought and climate variability, ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity, carbon cycle interannual variability and trends, and social ecological systems (land management and adaptation). We then detail our remote sensing, modeling, and field-based strategies to capture high temporal and high spatial resolution processes. Finally, our implementation strategy is presented which includes focus area selections in a core intensive western U.S. domain and distributed international domains. This strategy includes our overarching guiding principles of using multi-temporal airborne acquisitions and super sites as well as enhancing land management in co-development with end-user partners. While originally developed for NASA, our ARID report creates a blueprint for any future dryland field campaign, at any scale, that can be implemented widely for foundational and applied science objectives.

Global Change Biology

An overview of the NASA Adaptation and Response in Drylands field experiment scoping study

Drylands cover 41% of Earth’s land surface, support 36% of the global population, and contribute 60% of global food production. Despite these ecosystems’ importance and high vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves, drylands remain some of the most understudied systems on Earth. Monitoring drylands is challenging due to their complex ecosystem structure of visible soil mixed with diverse plant species that respond rapidly to weather and climate. In 2023 and 2024, a NASA scoping study was conducted for a proposed dryland terrestrial ecology field campaign called Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID). Thereafter, the NASA ARID scoping team submitted their campaign proposal to NASA Headquarters, providing a study design for how field, aircraft, and satellite measurements, as well as modeling, would address the most critical fundamental and applied science questions in drylands. The extensive study plan was created by and for the drylands research community – including remote sensors, modelers, experimentalists, and ecologists from across the world – and the overall approach can be further utilized and changed for different uses and data information needs. Here, we summarize the ARID research road map, including its main objectives, field campaign strategy, data end-user support strategy, and U.S. and global community engagement.

Drylands

Evaluating the performance of multiple precipitation datasets over the transboundary Ili River Basin between China and Kazakhstan

The Ili River Basin is characterized by complex topography and diverse climatic zones with limited in situ observations. This study evaluates the performance of six widely used precipitation datasets, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data), ERA5_Land (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ECMWF Reanalysis 5_Land), GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre), IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM), PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks), and TerraClimate, against ground-based data from 2001 to 2023. The evaluation is conducted across multiple spatial scales and temporal resolutions. At the basin scale, most datasets exhibit strong correlations with in situ observations across all temporal scales (r > 0.7), except for PERSIANN, which demonstrates a relatively weaker performance during summer and winter (r < 0.6). All datasets except ERA5_ Land show low annual and monthly bias (<5%), although larger errors are observed during summer, particularly for IMERG and PERSIANN. Dataset performance generally declines with increasing elevation. Basin-wide gridded evaluations reveal distinct spatial variations across all elevation zones, with CHIRPS showing the strongest ability to capture orographic precipitation gradients throughout the basin. All datasets correctly identified 2008 as a drought year and 2016 as a wet year, even though the magnitude and spatial resolution of the anomalies varied among them. These findings highlight the importance of selecting precipitation datasets that are suited to the complex topographic and climatic characteristics of transboundary basins. Our study provides valuable insights for improving hydrological modeling and can be used for water sustainability and flood–drought mitigation support activities in the Ili River Basin.

Ili River Basin

Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID): Community insights for scoping a NASA terrestrial ecology field campaign in drylands

Dryland ecosystems cover 40% of our planet's land surface, support billions of people, and are responding rapidly to climate and land use change. These expansive systems also dominate core aspects of Earth's climate, storing and exchanging vast amounts of water, carbon, and energy with the atmosphere. Despite their indispensable ecosystem services and high vulnerability to change, drylands are one of the least understood ecosystem types, partly due to challenges studying their heterogeneous landscapes and misconceptions that drylands are unproductive “wastelands.” Consequently, inadequate understanding of dryland processes has resulted in poor model representation and forecasting capacity, hindering decision making for these at-risk ecosystems. NASA satellite resources are increasingly available at the higher resolutions needed to enhance understanding of drylands' heterogeneous spatiotemporal dynamics. NASA's Terrestrial Ecology Program solicited proposals for scoping a multi-year field campaign, of which Adaptation and Response in Drylands (ARID) was one of two scoping studies selected. A primary goal of the scoping study is to gather input from the scientific and data end-user communities on dryland research gaps and data user needs. Here, we provide an overview of the ARID team's community engagement and how it has guided development of our framework. This includes an ARID kickoff meeting with over 300 participants held in October 2023 at the University of Arizona to gather input from data end-users and scientists. We also summarize insights gained from hundreds of follow-up activities, including from a tribal-engagement focused workshop in New Mexico, conference town halls, intensive roundtables, and international engagements.

Earth's Future

Reducing wet ammonium deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park: The development and evaluation of a pilot early warning system for agricultural operations in eastern Colorado

Agricultural emissions are the primary source of ammonia (NH3) deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), a Class I area, that is granted special air quality protections under the Clean Air Act. Between 2014 and 2016, the pilot phase of the Colorado agricultural nitrogen early warning system (CANEWS) was developed for agricultural producers to voluntarily and temporarily minimize emissions of NH3 during periods of upslope winds. The CANEWS was created using trajectory analyses driven by outputs from an ensemble of numerical weather forecasts together with the climatological expertise of human forecasters. Here, we discuss the methods for the CANEWS and offer preliminary analyses of 33 months of the CANEWS based on atmospheric deposition data from two sites in RMNP as well as responses from agricultural producers after warnings were issued. Results showed that the CANEWS accurately predicted 6 of 9 high N deposition weeks at a lower-elevation observation site, but only 4 of 11 high N deposition weeks at a higher-elevation site. Sixty agricultural producers from 39 of Colorado’s agricultural operations volunteered for the CANEWS, and a two-way line of communication between agricultural producers and scientists was formed. For each warning issued, an average of 23 producers responded to a post-warning survey. Over 75% of responding CANEWS participants altered their practices after an alert. While the current effort was insufficient to reduce atmospheric deposition, we were encouraged by the collaborative spirit between agricultural, scientific, and resource management communities. Solving a broad and complex social-ecological problem requires both a technological approach, such as the CANEWS, and collaboration and trust from all participants, including agricultural producers, land managers, university researchers, and environmental agencies.

Colorado

Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management

Policies directing agencies and public land managers to incorporate climate change into management face several barriers. These stem, in part, from a disconnect between the information that is produced and the information needs of local resource managers. A disproportionate focus on the natural and physical sciences in climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment obscure understandings of complex social systems and the interactions and feedbacks in social-ecological systems. We use a qualitative case study of bison management on Department of the Interior-managed and tribal lands to explore how a social-science driven Determinants and Analogue Vulnerability Assessment (DAVA) can inform ecological response models, specifically simulation models that account for multiple drivers of change. First, we illustrate how a DAVA approach can help to: 1) identify key processes, entities, and interactions across scales; 2) document local impacts, indicators, and monitoring efforts of drought and climate; and 3) identify major tradeoffs and uncertainties. We then demonstrate how qualitative narratives can inform simulation models by: 1) prioritizing model components included in modeling efforts; 2) framing joint management and climate scenarios; and 3) parameterizing and evaluating model performance. We do this by presenting a conceptual joint agent-based/state-and-transition simulation modeling framework. Simulation models can represent multiple interacting variables and can identify surprising, emergent outcomes that might not be evident from qualitative analysis alone, and we argue that qualitative case studies can ground simulation models in local contexts and help make them more structurally realistic and useful. Together, these can provide a step toward developing actionable climate change adaptation strategies.

Climate Risk Management

DayCent-Chem simulations of ecological and biogeochemical processes of eight mountain ecosystems in the United States

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO 3 - ) and ammonium (NH 4 + ) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO 4 2- ) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO 4 2- deposition has been low and where SO 4 2- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Scientific Investigations Report

Analysis of nitrogen saturation potential in Rocky Mountain tundra and forest: implications for aquatic systems

We employed grass and forest versions of the CENTURY model under a range of N deposition values (0.02–1.60 g N m −2 y −1 ) to explore the possibility that high observed lake and stream N was due to terrestrial N saturation of alpine tundra and subalpine forest in Loch Vale Watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Model results suggest that N is limiting to subalpine forest productivity, but that excess leachate from alpine tundra is sufficient to account for the current observed stream N. Tundra leachate, combined with N leached from exposed rock surfaces, produce high N loads in aquatic ecosystems above treeline in the Colorado Front Range. A combination of terrestrial leaching, large N inputs from snowmelt, high watershed gradients, rapid hydrologic flushing and lake turnover times, and possibly other nutrient limitations of aquatic organisms constrain high elevation lakes and streams from assimilating even small increases in atmospheric N. CENTURY model simulations further suggest that, while increased N deposition will worsen the situation, nitrogen saturation is an ongoing phenomenon.

Biogeochemistry