Geology topics

Dennis M. Staley

Publications and source records attributed to Dennis M. Staley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Numerical modeling of Late Pleistocene to Holocene earthquake-induced progressive rock slope damage in the paraglacial Serpentine valley, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Landslides in deglaciating fjords pose a potential tsunami threat to nearby communities; however, processes contributing to long-term progressive rock damage and landslide conditioning remain poorly constrained in paraglacial settings. Here, we analyse the role of earthquake-induced rock mass damage over late Pleistocene to Holocene time scales, as a conditioning factor for modern landslides, using distinct element numerical modelling to assess spatial and temporal patterns of fracture propagation influenced by varying glacier thickness. Conceptualised numerical models were parameterised by in situ rock mass, glacial and topographic conditions in Serpentine valley, located in Prince William Sound, Alaska, where several large landslides are actively developing along the western valley wall. Results show that although rigid glacier buttressing reduces co-seismic rock mass damage, it does not suppress it completely, and damage occurs both above and below the glacier surface elevation. We demonstrate that topography, and especially steep slopes with topographic convexity, as well as preexisting damage of joint networks and faults inherited from tectonic and exhumation induced stresses, exert primary control on the location of new co-seismic damage. Simulations representing a simplified deglaciation sequence over the past 25 ka, with a series of 10 evenly spaced earthquakes, generated rock mass damage patterns that qualitatively match in situ landslide structural and kinematic observations at one instability in Serpentine valley. Our conceptual study helps clarify the role of repeated seismicity over glacial timescales as a long-term conditioning process for paraglacial rock slope failure, highlighting spatial and temporal patterns of progressive damage accumulation, with outcomes relevant for modern landslide hazard assessment.

Alaska↗

USGS2026

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Forecast, monitor, adapt: A multi-agency strategy to protect people from postfire debris flows

In 2020, a wildfire burned across Glenwood Canyon in Colorado, USA. A history of postfire debris flows in the region and a hazard assessment for the burn area indicated that potentially life-threatening debris flows could be triggered by rainfall within months of a wildfire. As a result, four government agencies evaluated strategies to help mitigate hazards, including the loss of human life, that may be associated with debris-flow events. After the fire, 26 large debris flows occurred in the summer of 2021 and three sediment-laden flows occurred in the summer of 2023, but there were no major injuries or fatalities reported. We found that integrating hazard assessment/ forecasting, monitoring, and adaptation scenarios was a successful strategy for reducing postfire debris-flow risks to human life (including injuries and fatalities). Weather forecasts and estimates of debris-flow triggering rainfall thresholds, likelihood, and volume were used to anticipate the timing, location, and magnitude of debris-flow events. Rainfall monitoring and detailed recordkeeping of storms that triggered debris flows were used to validate and update debris-flow warning thresholds that varied with time following the wildfire. Although the governmental agencies working in this burn area had distinct and differing agency mandates, they were able to integrate information to reduce the risk of debris-flow events to human life.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

2024 Surprise Inlet landslides: Insights from a prototype landslide‐triggered tsunami monitoring system in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Alaska's coastal communities face growing landslide hazards owing to glacier retreat and extreme weather intensified by the warming climate, yet hazard monitoring remains challenging. As part of ongoing experimental monitoring in Prince William Sound, we detected three large landslides (0.5–2.3 M m 3 ) at Surprise Inlet on 20 September 2024, within the span of an hour. These events were identified in near real-time through seismic data and later confirmed using satellite imagery, tidal records, and infrasound. The landslides generated a modest tsunami, and a 4 cm wave was recorded by a tide gauge 18 km away, marking the first recorded landslide to reach water since monitoring began in this region in 2021. Here, we examine the detection and interpretation of these landslides using multiple data sources and modeling. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this regional seismic monitoring system and show how complementary instrumentation, where available, can enhance detection capabilities.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA

As wildfire increases in the western United States, so do postfire debris-flow hazards. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed two separate models to estimate (1) rainfall intensity thresholds for postfire debris-flow initiation and (2) debris-flow volumes. However, the information necessary to test the accuracy of these models is seldom available. Here, we studied how well these models performed over a 2-year period in the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire burn perimeter in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA, through the development of a debris-flow response inventory. The study area had the advantage of a network of 11 rain gauges for rainfall intensity measurements and repeat lidar data for volume estimates. Our observations showed that 89 % of observed debris flows in the first year postfire were triggered by rainfall rates higher than the fire-wide rainfall threshold produced by the current USGS operational model (M1). No debris flows were observed in the second year postfire, despite eight rainstorms with intensities higher than the modeled rainfall threshold. We found that the operational model for debris-flow initiation rainfall thresholds works well in this region during the first year but may be too conservative in year 2 due to vegetation recovery and sediment depletion. However, rainfall thresholds in the second year can be improved by using updated remote sensing imagery to recalculate the debris-flow initiation likelihood with the M1 model. The current volume model overestimates for this region by a median value of 4.4 times. However, the offset between the model estimates and observations is approximately linear, and the volumes from the Grizzly Creek debris flows had a similar magnitude to historic postfire debris flows in the region. Consequently, the current volume model could be adjusted with a regional correction factor.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Satellite interferometry landslide detection and preliminary tsunamigenic plausibility assessment in Prince William Sound, southcentral Alaska

Regional mapping of actively deforming landslides, including measurements of landslide velocity, is integral for hazard assessments in paraglacial environments. These inventories are also critical for describing the potential impacts that the warming effects of climate change have on slope instability in mountainous and cryospheric terrain. The objective of this study is to identify slow-moving landslides in the Prince William Sound region, southcentral Alaska, United States, which has had rapid deglaciation since the mid-1800s, and assess their tsunamigenic plausibility. We use an automated time series persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar processing method with 7 years of Sentinel-1 data (2016–22) to identify 43 slow-moving slopes with average velocities ranging from approximately 0.2 to 21 millimeters per year. Landslide presence is confirmed using aerial imagery and previous landslide inventory records. We assess the tsunamigenic plausibility of the landslides using empirically derived estimates of landslide mobility based on modeled landslide volumes. Of the identified landslides, our preliminary analysis suggests that 11 have tsunamigenic potential if they were to fail rapidly and catastrophically. Although our estimate of tsunamigenic plausibility is preliminary and can be refined with additional observations and analyses, it can be used to prioritize ongoing and future hazard assessment, surveillance, and research efforts.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Kinematic evolution of a large paraglacial landslide in the Barry Arm fjord of Alaska

Our warming climate is adversely affecting cryospheric landscapes via glacial retreat, permafrost degradation, and associated slope destabilization. In Prince William Sound, Alaska, the rapid retreat of Barry Glacier has destabilized the slopes flanking the glacier, resulting in numerous landslides. The largest of these landslides (∼500 Mm 3 in volume) is more than 2 km wide and has the potential to generate a tsunami that could affect nearby recreationists, marine traffic, infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and the community of Whittier, located 60 km from the landslide. Here, we combine landslide structural and kinematic element mapping with data acquired from bi-yearly airborne lidar, multi-week satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR), sub-hourly ground-based SAR, and seismic monitoring from 2020 to 2022 to characterize this landslide and examine its evolution. While some methods serve as a snapshot in time that is a culmination of events, others emphasize the ever-evolving nature of the landslide and associated hazards. Four major kinematic elements define the overall structure of the landslide, which vary in deformation type and rate, from creep (5 mm per day over several months) to episodic movement (2 m in 30 days) and landslide-wide to localized events. In some areas of the landslide, short-term deformation deviates from structures formed by cumulative movement, implying structural and kinematic evolution associated with glacier retreat. These insights are important for assessing landslide hazards and hazard evolution for large, slow-moving bedrock landslides in actively deglaciating environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Simulating debris flow and levee formation in the 2D shallow flow model D-Claw: Channelized and unconfined flow

Debris flow runout poses a hazard to life and infrastructure. The expansion of human population into mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans increases the need to predict and mitigate debris flow runout hazards. Debris flows on unconfined alluvial fans can exhibit spontaneous self-channelization through levee formation that reduces lateral spreading and extends runout distances compared to unchannelized flows. Here we modify the D-Claw shallow flow model in two ways that are hypothesized to generate levees. We evaluate these modifications with observations from a large-scale flume experiment. We investigate model performance when including the effect of two different friction sub-models, as well as the inclusion of segregation effects on granular permeability. Results show that, for a wide range of plausible model input parameters, simulations including the effects of segregation promoted modeled levee formation, whereas simulations without the effects of segregation did not create levees. Further, using a forward predictive framework, simulations with the effects of segregation were more likely to better model the magnitude of debris flow depth and runout distance, whereas simulation timing of the debris flow was affected by the choice of friction sub-model. Our results indicate that including the effects of segregation on granular permeability can improve the likelihood of better predictions of debris flow depth and runout prior to an event occurring.

Earth and Space Science↗

USGS2022

New model of the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska reveals potential tsunami wave heights of 2 meters, values much lower than previously estimated

The retreat of Barry Glacier has contributed to the destabilization of slopes in Barry Arm, creating the possibility that a landslide could rapidly enter the fjord and trigger a tsunami. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently released a report documenting potential tsunami wave heights in the event of a large, fast-moving landslide at the Barry Arm fiord near Prince William Sound, Alaska (Barnhart and others, 2021). This new work shows that the largest plausible wave height is smaller than initial estimates published in Dai and others (2020), but waves still represent a substantial hazard to the people who live, work, and recreate in Prince William Sound. Thus, it is important that residents and visitors remain informed about this hazard and prepare accordingly.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

Rainfall triggering of post-fire debris flows over a 28-year period near El Portal, California, USA

Wildfires frequently affect the steep hillslopes near El Portal, California (United States), a small community established during the California Gold Rush in the mid-1800s. In addition to the historical significance of El Portal, State Route 140 (SR 140) is a major transportation and economic corridor connecting the San Joaquin Valley to Yosemite National Park (YNP). In 2019, an estimated 4.5 million tourists visited and accessed YNP via SR 140. In the years after wildfires, the burned watersheds produced debris flows during intense rainfall, impacting the El Portal community and motorists traveling on SR 140 and local roads. The steepness of the hillslopes and confinement of the valley limit options for mitigating debris-flow risk. As such, emergency managers are left with evacuation orders or temporary road closures as the best options for risk reduction. The effectiveness of these options is highly dependent on establishing an accurate local rainfall intensity-duration threshold that officials can use to guide emergency response actions and timing. We present an overview of the rainfall conditions that initiated 12 post-fire debris-flow events near El Portal from 1991 to 2018 and objectively define rainfall intensity-duration thresholds from triggering rainfall rates. Our results highlight the modest rainfall rates that triggered debris flows in these steep watersheds, while radar data from more recent events (2012–2018) portray the spatial variability of intense rainfall in the area. Additional rainfall monitoring is needed to provide a robust rainfall threshold that will effectively mitigate risk for residents and motorists while minimizing the impact of road closures and evacuations.

California↗

USGS2021

Multi-model comparison of computed debris flow runout for the 9 January 2018 Montecito, California post-wildfire event

Hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows, which are common in the steep terrain of the western United States, has focused on the susceptibility of upstream basins to generate debris flows. However, reducing public exposure to this hazard also requires an assessment of hazards in downstream areas that might be inundated during debris flow runout. Debris flow runout models are widely available, but their application to hazard assessment for post-wildfire debris flows has not been extensively tested. Necessary inputs to these models include the total volume of the mobilized flow, flow properties (either inherent material properties or calibration coefficients), and site topography. Estimates of volume are possible in post-event (“back calculation”) studies, yet before an event, volume is an uncertain quantity. We simulated debris flow runout for the well-constrained 9 January 2018 Montecito event using three models (RAMMS, FLO2D, and D-Claw) to determine the relative importance of volume and flow properties. We broke the impacted area into three domains, and for each model-domain combination, we performed a numerical sampling study in which volume and flow properties varied within a wide, but plausible range. We assessed model performance based on inundation patterns and peak flow depths. We found all models could simulate the event with comparable results. Simulation performance was most sensitive to flow volume and less sensitive to flow properties. Our results emphasize the importance of reducing uncertainty in pre-event estimates of flow volume for hazard assessment.

California↗

USGS2021

Movement of sediment through a burned landscape: Sediment volume observations and model comparisons in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, USA

Post-wildfire changes to hydrologic and geomorphic systems can lead to widespread sediment redistribution. Understanding how sediment moves through a watershed is crucial for assessing hazards, developing debris flow inundation models, engineering sediment retention solutions, and quantifying the role that disturbances play in landscape evolution. In this study, we used terrestrial and airborne lidar to measure sediment redistribution in the 2016 Fish Fire, in the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California, USA. The lidar areas are in two adjacent watersheds, at spatial scales of 900 m 2 to 4 km 2 , respectively. Terrestrial lidar data were acquired prior to rainfall, and two subsequent surveys show erosional change after rainstorms. Two airborne lidar flights occurred (1) 7 months before, and (2) 14 months after the fire ignition, capturing the erosional effects after rainfall. We found hillslope erosion dominated the overall sediment budget in the first rainy season after wildfire. Only 7% of the total erosion came from the active channel bed and channel banks, and the remaining 93% of eroded sediment was derived from hillslopes. Within the channelized portion of the watershed erosion/deposition could be generally described with topographic metrics used in a stream power equation. Observed sediment volumes were compared with four empirical models and one process-based model. We found that the best predictions of sediment volume were obtained from an empirical model developed in the same physiographic region. Moreover, this study showed that post-wildfire erosion rates in the San Gabriel Mountains attain the same magnitude as millennial time scale bedrock erosion rates.

California↗

USGS2021

Preliminary assessment of the wave generating potential from landslides at Barry Arm, Prince William Sound, Alaska

We simulated the concurrent rapid motion of landslides on an unstable slope at Barry Arm, Alaska. Movement of landslides into the adjacent fjord displaced fjord water and generated a tsunami, which propagated out of Barry Arm. Rather than assuming an initial sea surface height, velocity, and location for the tsunami, we generated the tsunami directly using a model capable of simulating the dynamics of both water and landslide material. The fjord below most of the landslide source area was occupied by the Barry Glacier until about 2012; therefore, our direct simulation of tsunami generation by landslide motion required new topographic and bathymetric data, which was collected in 2020. The topographic data also constrained landslide geometries and volumes. We considered four scenarios based on two landslide volumes and two landslide mobilities—a more mobile, contractive landslide and a less mobile, noncontractive landslide. The larger of the two volumes is 689 × 10 6 cubic meters (m 3 )—larger than the volume estimate in a previous study—and reflects the largest plausible volume given current observational data. The considered scenario that generated the largest wave heights resulted in forecast wave heights of over 200 meters (m) in the northern part of Barry Arm, adjacent to the landslide source area and runup on the opposite fjord wall in excess of 500 m. Simulated wave heights in excess of 5 m in southern Barry Arm and in Harriman Fjord occurred within 10–15 minutes (min) of landslide motion. The simulated tsunami reached Whittier, Alaska, approximately 20 min after initial rapid landslide motion, with peak heights of just over 2 m in Passage Fjord, 500 m offshore Whittier, occurring 26 min after initial rapid motion. Time of peak wave heights was consistent with previous modeling. Although results are preliminary and can be refined with additional observations and analyses, they provide a refined assessment of the upper bound of the hazard presented by the Barry Arm landslides. The results herein support the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Tsunami Warning Center mission to detect, forecast, and warn for tsunamis in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Postwildfire soil‐hydraulic recovery and the persistence of debris flow hazards

Deadly and destructive debris flows often follow wildfire, but understanding of changes in the hazard potential with time since fire is poor. We develop a simulation‐based framework to quantify changes in the hydrologic triggering conditions for debris flows as postwildfire infiltration properties evolve through time. Our approach produces time‐varying rainfall intensity‐duration thresholds for runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows with physics‐based hydrologic simulations that are parameterized with widely available hydroclimatic, vegetation reflectance, and soil texture data. When we apply our thresholding protocol to a test case in the San Gabriel Mountains (California, USA), the results are consistent with existing regional empirical thresholds and rainstorms that caused runoff‐ and infiltration‐generated debris flows soon after and three years following a wildfire, respectively. We find that the hydrologic triggering mechanisms for the two observed debris flow types are coupled with the effects of fire on the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. Specifically, the rainfall intensity needed to generate debris flows via runoff increases with time following wildfire while the rainfall duration needed to produce debris flows via subsurface pore‐water pressures decreases. We also find that variations in soil moisture, rainfall climatology, median grain size, and root reinforcement could impact the median annual probability of postwildfire debris flows. We conclude that a simulation‐based method for calculating rainfall thresholds is a tractable approach to improve situational awareness of debris flow hazard in the years following wildfire. Further development of our framework will be important to quantify postwildfire hazard levels in variable climates, vegetation types, and fire regimes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗

USGS2021

Forecasting the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California

Southern California has a long history of damaging debris flows after wildfire. Despite recurrent loss, forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows are not available for the region like they are for earthquakes. Instead, debris flow hazards are typically assessed in a reactive manner after wildfires. Such assessments are crucial for evaluating debris flow risk by postfire emergency response teams; however, time between the fire and first rainstorm is often insufficient to fully develop and implement effective emergency response plans like those in place for earthquakes. Here, we use both historical distributions of fire and precipitation frequency and empirical models of postfire debris flow likelihood and volume to map the expected frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California. We find that at least small debris flows can be expected almost every year, while major debris flows capable of damaging 40 or more structures have a recurrence interval between 10 and 13 years, a return interval that is comparable to a magnitude 6.7 earthquake. A sensitivity analysis to possible future changes in current fire and precipitation regimes indicates that debris flow activity in southern California is more sensitive to increases in precipitation intensity than increases in fire frequency and severity. Projected increases in rainfall intensity of 18% result in an overall 110% increase in the probability of major debris flows. Our results, in combination with an assessment of exposure, can be used to prioritize watersheds for further analysis and possible prefire mitigation.

California↗

USGS2021

Time since burning and rainfall characteristics impact post-fire debris flow initiation and magnitude

The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote elevated rates of runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Debris flows are most common in the year immediately following wildfire, but temporal changes in the likelihood and magnitude of debris flows following wildfire are not well constrained. In this study, we combine measurements of soil-hydraulic properties with vegetation survey data and numerical modeling to understand how debris-flow threats are likely to change in steep, burned watersheds during the first 3 years of recovery. We focus on documenting recovery following the 2016 Fish Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, California, and demonstrate how a numerical model can be used to predict temporal changes in debris-flow properties and initiation thresholds. Numerical modeling suggests that the 15-minute intensity-duration (ID) threshold for debris flows in post-fire year 1 can vary from 15 to 30 mm/hr, depending on how rainfall is temporally distributed within a storm. Simulations further demonstrate that expected debris-flow volumes would be reduced by more than a factor of three following 1 year of recovery and that the 15-minute rainfall ID threshold would increase from 15 to 30 mm/hr to greater than 60 mm/hr by post-fire year 3. These results provide constraints on debris-flow thresholds within the San Gabriel Mountains and highlight the importance of considering local rainfall characteristics when using numerical models to assess debris-flow and flood potential.

Environmental Engineering and Geology↗