Geology topics
Debra A. Willard
Publications and source records attributed to Debra A. Willard.
Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change
We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the land use (LU) data sets by harmonizing a previous reconstruction (Steyaert & Knox, 2008) with updated observations and modeled potential vegetation. The eight‐member ensembles for each epoch were driven with randomly perturbed 1990–2002 atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction global reanalysis. LUC induces statistically significant climate responses across all epochs; the largest changes occur between 1850 and 1920 with the widespread conversion of forests in the United States and forests, grassland, and woody wetlands in Cuba to agriculture. The atmospheric feedback from the aggregated grid‐cell responses attributed to physical and biophysical parameters in BATS1e alters the circulation in the lower atmosphere, thereby propagating the LUC regionally. Depending on the season and location, the altered circulation reinforces, attenuates, or has little effect on surface responses. Relative to pre‐settlement (1650), the 1992 LU produces colder mean annual air temperature (−0.09 ± 0.16 °C) and increased precipitation (0.08 ± 0.09 mm day −1 ) over the United States, warmer (0.08 °C) and wetter (0.03 mm day −1 ) conditions over Florida, and warming (0.32 °C) and drying (−0.03 mm day −1 ) over Cuba, indicating that LUC has played a varying role in climate change over the region.
Tidal erosion and upstream sediment trapping modulate records of land-use change in a formerly glaciated New England estuary
Land clearing, river impoundments, and other human modifications to the upland landscape and within estuarine systems can drive coastal change at local to regional scales. However, as compared with mid-latitude coasts, the impacts of human modifications along sediment-starved formerly glaciated coastal landscapes are relatively understudied. To address this gap, we present a late-Holocene record of changing sediment accumulation rates and sediment sources from sediment cores collected across a tidal flat in the Merrimack River estuary (Mass., USA). We pair sedimentology, geochronology, bulk- and stable-isotope organic geochemistry, and hydrodynamic simulations with historical data to evaluate human and natural impacts on coastal sediment fluxes. During the 17th to 19th centuries, accumulation rates increased by an order of magnitude in the central tidal flat, likely in response to enhanced delivery of terrestrial sediment resulting from upland deforestation. However, the overall increase in accumulation (0.56–2.6 mm/year) within the estuary is subtle and spatially variable across the tidal flats because of coincident anthropogenic land clearing and dam building, upland sediment storage, and estuarine hydrodynamics. This study provides insight into the response of formerly glaciated fluvial-coastal systems to human modifications, and underscores the role of estuarine environmental conditions in modifying upland signals of land-use change.
Rapid inundation of the southern Florida coastline despite low relative sea-level rise rates during the late-Holocene
Sediment cores from Florida Bay, Everglades National Park were examined to determine ecosystem response to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) over the Holocene. High-resolution multiproxy analysis from four sites show freshwater wetlands transitioned to mangrove environments 4–3.6 ka, followed by estuarine environments 3.4–2.8 ka, during a period of enhanced climate variability. We calculate a RSLR rate of 0.67 ± 0.1 mm yr −1 between ~4.2–2.8 ka, 4–6 times lower than current rates. Despite low RSLR rates, the rapid mangrove to estuarine transgression was facilitated by a period of prolonged droughts and frequent storms. These findings suggest that with higher and accelerating RSLR today, enhanced climate variability could further hasten the loss of mangrove-lined coastlines, compounded by the reductions in natural flow to the coast caused by water management. Climate variability is nonlinear, and when superimposed on increases in RSLR, can complicate estimated trajectories of coastal inundation for resource management and urban planning.
The mighty Susquehanna—extreme floods in Eastern North America during the past two millennia
The hazards posed by infrequent major floods to communities along the Susquehanna River and the ecological health of Chesapeake Bay remain largely unconstrained due to the short length of streamgage records. Here we develop a history of high‐flow events on the Susquehanna River during the late Holocene from flood deposits contained in MD99‐2209, a sediment core recovered in 26 m of water from Chesapeake Bay near Annapolis, Maryland, United States. We identify coarse‐grained deposits left by Hurricane Agnes (1972) and the Great Flood of 1936, as well as during three intervals that predate instrumental flood records (~1800–1500, 1300–1100, and 400–0 CE). Comparison to sedimentary proxy data (pollen and ostracode Mg/Ca ratios) from the same core site indicates that prehistoric flooding on the Susquehanna often accompanied cooler‐than‐usual winter/spring temperatures near Chesapeake Bay—typical of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation and conditions thought to foster hurricane landfalls along the East Coast.
Geographic attribution of soils using probabilistic modeling of GIS data for forensic search efforts
Examinations of soil traces associated with forensic evidence can be used to narrow potential source area(s) by characterizing features of the trace soil assemblage, some of which are limited to specific regions. Soil characteristics may be used to infer the likelihoods of the soil trace being derived from distinct areas within digital maps, including both maps of discrete classes such as formations on geologic maps and land cover, and continuous geospatial data, such as distance from a point source. Seldom do digital maps precisely represent the observable characteristics in a soil trace. Nevertheless, logical assigned likelihoods based on the correspondence between the mapped characteristics and the observed soil particulate assemblage permit creation of a model of the more probable sources of the soil trace. This approach is applied to a 2003 case in which forensic soil samples derived from digging tools were characterized for investigative leads and to narrow the search area of a clandestine grave. This grave site was located in 2005. The suspect traveled approximately 5,000 km before arrest, so narrowing the prioritized search area for law enforcement would be beneficial. Soil examination and case circumstances were used to assign relative likelihoods within digital maps (GIS or Geographic Information Systems data) of geology, soil mineralogy, plant distributions, power plant locations, and proximity to the known travel path. The product of these individual probability maps generates joint probability models to narrow the recommended search area. The digital model output can be easily overlaid on infrastructure maps to aid law enforcement searches.
Arctic vegetation, temperature, and hydrology during Early Eocene transient global warming events
Early Eocene global climate was warmer than much of the Cenozoic and was punctuated by a series of transient warming events or ‘hyperthermals’ associated with carbon isotope excursions when temperature increased by 4–8° C. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, 53.5 Ma) hyperthermals were of short duration (< 200 kyr) and dramatically restructured terrestrial vegetation and mammalian faunas at mid-latitudes. Data on the character and magnitude of change in terrestrial vegetation and climate during and after the PETM and ETM2 at high northern latitudes, however, are limited to a small number of stratigraphically restricted records. The Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) marine sediment core from the Lomonosov Ridge in the Arctic Basin provides a stratigraphically expanded early Eocene record of Arctic terrestrial vegetation and climates. Using pollen/spore assemblages, palynofacies data, bioclimatic analyses (Nearest Living Relative, or NLR), and lipid biomarker paleothermometry, we present evidence for expansion of mesothermal (Mean Annual Temperatures 13–20˚C) forests to the Arctic during the PETM and ETM2. Our data indicate that PETM mean annual temperatures were ~1.8˚ - 3.5˚C warmer than the Late Paleocene. Mean winter temperatures in the PETM reached ≥6°C (~1.9˚C warmer than the late Paleocene), based on pollen-based bioclimatic reconstructions and the presence of palm and Bombacoideae pollen. Increased runoff of water and nutrients to the ocean during both hyperthermals resulted in greater salinity stratification and hypoxia/anoxia, based on marked increases in concentration of massive Amorphous Organic Matter (AOM) and dominance of low-salinity dinocysts. During the PETM recovery, taxodioid Cupressaceae-dominated swamp forests were important elements of the landscape, representing intermediate climate conditions between the early Eocene hyperthermals and background conditions of the late Paleocene.
Paleoclimate of the subtropical Andes during the latest Miocene, Lauca Basin, Chile
Uplift of the Andean Cordillera during the Miocene and Pliocene produced large-scale changes in regional atmospheric circulation that impacted local ecosystems. The Lauca Basin (northern Chilean Altiplano) contains variably fluvial and lacustrine sedimentary sequences spanning the interval from 8.7 to 2.3 Ma. Field samples were collected from paleo-lacustrine sediments in the basin. Sediments were dated using detrital zircon geochronology on volcanic tuffs, yielding an age range between ~5.57 and 5.44 Ma. These new age constraints provided an opportunity to evaluate changes in the Lauca Basin ecosystem across this dynamic Miocene-Pliocene transition. We employed multiple proxies (lithofacies analysis, diatoms, pollen, and oxygen stable isotopes of authigenic carbonates) to interpret ancient lacustrine and terrestrial paleoenvironments. Alternations among mudstone, carbonate, and evaporitic facies indicate lake-level variability through time. The diatom assemblage is characterized by meso- to hypersaline and alkaline-tolerant taxa typical of shallow lakes. The δ 18 O values ranged from −8.96 to −2.22‰ indicating fluctuations in water balance. Pollen taxa in the outcrop are typical of a transitional stage between seasonal cloud forest and open grassland. Together, these proxies indicate that the Lauca paleolake sediments were deposited under a wetter-than-modern climate with high temporal variability. Our results refine previous studies in the Lauca Basin and are consistent with other regional studies suggesting that the South American summer monsoon at the Miocene-Pliocene transition was more intense than it is at present.
A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era
This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream flow and runoff, cave drip rates, biological productivity, assemblages of living organisms, and salinity. Centennial-scale hydroclimate anomalies are obtained by iteratively sampling the proxy data on each of thousands of age model realizations and determining the fractions of possible time series indicating that the century-smoothed data was anomalously wet or dry relative to the 100 BCE to 1900 CE mean. Results suggest regionally asynchronous wet and dry periods over multidecadal to centennial timescales and frequent periods of extended regional drought. Most sites indicate drying during previously documented multicentennial periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere temperatures, particularly in the western U.S., central U.S., and Canada. Two widespread droughts were documented by the NAHS: from 50 BCE to 450 CE and from 800 to 1100 CE. Major hydroclimate reorganizations occurred out of sync with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and widespread wet and dry anomalies occurred during both warm and cool periods. We present a broad assessment of paleoclimate relationships that highlights the potential influences of internal variability and external forcing and supports a prominent role for Pacific and Atlantic Ocean dynamics on century-scale continental hydroclimate.
The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period
Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1,000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (¹⁴C, ²³⁴U/²³⁰Th, OSL, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes, and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.
Shallow marine response to global climate change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Salisbury Embayment, USA
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an interval of extreme warmth that caused disruption of marine and terrestrial ecosystems on a global scale. Here we examine the sediments, flora, and fauna from an expanded section at Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) in Maryland and explore the impact of warming at a nearshore shallow marine (30–100 m water depth) site in the Salisbury Embayment. Observations indicate that at the onset of the PETM, the site abruptly shifted from an open marine to prodelta setting with increased terrestrial and fresh water input. Changes in microfossil biota suggest stratification of the water column and low-oxygen bottom water conditions in the earliest Eocene. Formation of authigenic carbonate through microbial diagenesis produced an unusually large bulk carbon isotope shift, while the magnitude of the corresponding signal from benthic foraminifera is similar to that at other marine sites. This proves that the landward increase in the magnitude of the carbon isotope excursion measured in bulk sediment is not due to a near instantaneous release of 12 C-enriched CO 2 . We conclude that the MCBR site records nearshore marine response to global climate change that can be used as an analog for modern coastal response to global warming.
Timing and duration of North American glacial lake discharges and the Younger Dryas climate reversal
No abstract available.
Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP): origins and evolution of the forests, climate, and hydrology of the South American tropics
This article presents the scientific rationale for an ambitious ICDP drilling project to continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in four different sedimentary basins that transect the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The goals of this project are to document the evolution of plant biodiversity in the Amazon forests and to relate biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and the surface landscape. These goals require long sedimentary records from each of the major sedimentary basins across the heart of the Brazilian Amazon, which can only be obtained by drilling because of the scarcity of Cenozoic outcrops. The proposed drilling will provide the first long, nearly continuous regional records of the Cenozoic history of the forests, their plant diversity, and the associated changes in climate and environment. It also will address fundamental questions about landscape evolution, including the history of Andean uplift and erosion as recorded in Andean foreland basins and the development of west-to-east hydrologic continuity between the Andes, the Amazon lowlands, and the equatorial Atlantic. Because many modern rivers of the Amazon basin flow along the major axes of the old sedimentary basins, we plan to locate drill sites on the margin of large rivers and to access the targeted drill sites by navigation along these rivers.
Pollen and spores of terrestrial plants
Pollen and spores are valuable tools in reconstructing past sea level and climate because of their ubiquity, abundance, and durability as well as their reciprocity with source vegetation to environmental change (Cronin, 1999; Traverse, 2007; Willard and Bernhardt, 2011). Pollan is found in many sedimentary environments, from freshwater to saltwater, terrestrial to marine. It can be abundant in a minimal amount of sample material, for example half a gram, as concentrations can be as high as four million grains per gram (Traverse, 2007). The abundance of pollen in a sample lends it to robust statistical analysis for the quantitative reconstruction of environments. The outer cell wall is resistant to decay in sediments and allows palynomorphs (pollen and spores) to record changes in plant communities and sea level over millions of years. These characteristics make pollen and spores a powerful tool to use in sea-level research. This chapter describes the biology of pollen and spores and how they are transported and preserved in sediments. We present a methodology for isolating pollen from sediments and a general language and framework to identify pollen as well as light micrographs of a selection of common pollen grains, We then discuss their utility in sea-level research.
Patterns of floodplain sediment deposition along the regulated lower Roanoke River, North Carolina: annual, decadal, centennial scales
The lower Roanoke River on the Coastal Plain of North Carolina is not embayed and maintains a floodplain that is among the largest on the mid-Atlantic Coast. This floodplain has been impacted by substantial aggradation in response to upstream colonial and post-colonial agriculture between the mid-eighteenth and mid-nineteenth centuries. Additionally, since the mid-twentieth century stream flow has been regulated by a series of high dams. We used artificial markers (clay pads), tree-ring (dendrogeomorphic) techniques, and pollen analyses to document sedimentation rates/amounts over short-, intermediate-, and long-term temporal scales, respectively. These analyses occurred along 58 transects at 378 stations throughout the lower river floodplain from near the Fall Line to the Albemarle Sound. Present sediment deposition rates ranged from 0.5 to 3.4 mm/y and 0.3 to 5.9 mm/y from clay pad and dendrogeomorphic analyses, respectively. Deposition rates systematically increased from upstream (high banks and floodplain) to downstream (low banks) reaches, except the lowest reaches. Conversely, legacy sediment deposition (A.D. 1725 to 1850) ranged from 5 to about 40 mm/y, downstream to upstream, respectively, and is apparently responsible for high banks upstream and large/wide levees along some of the middle stream reaches. Dam operations have selectively reduced levee deposition while facilitating continued backswamp deposition. A GIS-based model predicts 453,000 Mg of sediment is trapped annually on the floodplain and that little watershed-derived sediment reaches the Albemarle Sound. Nearly all sediment in transport and deposited is derived from the channel bed and banks. Legacy deposits (sources) and regulated discharges affect most aspects of present fluvial sedimentation dynamics. The lower river reflects complex relaxation conditions following both major human alterations, yet continues to provide the ecosystem service of sediment trapping.
Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use
The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.
Late Holocene vegetation, climate, and land-use impacts on carbon dynamics in the Florida Everglades
Tropical and subtropical peatlands are considered a significant carbon sink. The Florida Everglades includes 6000-km 2 of peat-accumulating wetland; however, detailed carbon dynamics from different environments within the Everglades have not been extensively studied or compared. Here we present carbon accumulation rates from 13 cores and 4 different environments, including sawgrass ridges and sloughs, tree islands, and marl prairies, whose hydroperiods and vegetation communities differ. We find that the lowest rates of C accumulation occur in sloughs in the southern Everglades. The highest rates are found where hydroperiods are generally shorter, including near-tails of tree islands and drier ridges. Long-term average rates of 100 to >200 g C m −2 yr −1 are as high, and in some cases, higher than rates recorded from the tropics and 10–20 times higher than boreal averages. C accumulation rates were impacted by both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, but the largest impacts to C accumulation rates over the Holocene record have been the anthropogenic changes associated with expansion of agriculture and construction of canals and levees to control movement of surface water. Water management practices in the 20th century have altered the natural hydroperiods and fire regimes of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades as a whole has acted as a significant carbon sink over the mid- to late-Holocene, but reduction of the spatial extent of the original wetland area, as well as the alteration of natural hydrology in the late 19th and 20th centuries, have significantly reduced the carbon sink capacity of this subtropical wetland.
Reconstructing vegetation response to altered hydrology and its use for restoration, Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida
We present reconstructed hydrologic and vegetation trends of the last three centuries across the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida in order to understand the effects of 20th century water management. We analyzed pollen assemblages from cores at marsh sites along three transects to document vegetation and infer hydroperiod and water depth both before and after human alteration of Everglades hydrology. In the northern and central part of the Refuge, late Holocene water levels were higher and hydroperiods longer than the last 100 years. Post-1950 was a time of several different water management strategies. Pollen assemblages indicate drier conditions post-1950 in the northern and central parts of the Refuge, whereas sites in the southern Refuge are wetter and vegetation turnover is higher. Throughout the Refuge, Sagittaria pollen declines with the onset of water management, and may indicate a loss of greater variation in hydroperiods across years and water depths between seasons. Paleoecological evidence provides clear estimates of the vegetation response to hydrologic change under specific hydrologic regimes.