Geology topics

David P. Thoma

Publications and source records attributed to David P. Thoma.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Vital sign monitoring is good medicine for parks

Nearly 70 years ago a young ranger naturalist working in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Frederick B. Turner, became fascinated with the abundance of frogs next to his cabin at “Soldier Creek” (known as Lodge Creek today). This interest blossomed into Turner’s PhD research and his publication in 1960 about the local population of Columbia spotted frogs (shown to right) became a classic for herpetologists. Unfortunately, the frog population Turner studied had a less positive future in store. Research by Idaho State University biologists in the 1990s revealed the Lodge Creek population had dwindled by 80%. Now, most of Turner’s study area is bereft of spotted frogs, and the remnant population near Yellowstone Lake is affected by a steep decline in reproduction and frequent disease outbreaks. Meanwhile, amphibian population declines documented worldwide, including in national parks of the western U.S., have become common. In YNP and neighboring Grand Teton National Park, we face the important questions of whether widespread amphibian declines are occurring here and if so, what do they portend. Can amphibians inform us about the health and changing conditions of wetlands in YNP? What are the implications of diminishing wetlands for other water-dependent species? And, more broadly, can amphibian and other living organisms serve as reliable indicators or vital signs for park health? In this issue of Yellowstone Science, we discuss how ecosystem science is taking cues from the medical field by relying on vital sign monitoring programs to assess ecosystem health.

Yellowstone Science↗

USGS2022

Multi-species amphibian monitoring across a protected landscape: Critical reflections on 15 years of wetland monitoring in Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks

Widespread amphibian declines were well documented at the end of the 20th century, raising concerns about the need to identify individual and interactive contributors to this global trend. At the same time, there was growing interest in the use of amphibians as ecological indicators. In the United States, wetland and amphibian monitoring programs were launched in some national parks as a necessary first step to evaluating the status and trends of amphibian populations within some of North America’s most protected areas. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, a multi-species amphibian monitoring program was launched by many of the authors in 2006 and continues to this day. This Viewpoint Article serves as a self-evaluation of our journey from conception through implementation of an ongoing, long-term monitoring program. This self-evaluation should provide a framework and guidance for other monitoring programs. We address whether we are fulfilling the program’s main objective of describing status and trends of the four amphibian species, discuss how a one-size-fits-all monitoring approach does not serve all species equally, and describe opportunities to bolster our core work using emerging statistical approaches and thoughtful integration of remote sensing and molecular tools. We also describe how the data generated over the program’s first 15 years have been useful beyond our initial goal of characterizing status and trend. Notably, our integration of climate datasets has allowed us to describe wetland and species-specific amphibian responses to variations in climate drivers. Documenting climate links to amphibian occurrence and their primary habitats has allowed us to identify which species, habitat types, and subregions within this large, protected landscape are most vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Recognizing that tools and threats change over time, it will be important to adapt our original monitoring design to maximize opportunities and use of resulting information. Maintaining engagement by multiple stakeholders and expanding our funding portfolio will also be necessary to sustain our program into the future. Finally, collaboration has become standard for long-term, cross-jurisdictional, landscape-scale monitoring. We argue that collaborative monitoring facilitates resource sharing, leveraging of limited funds, completion of work, and mutual learning. Such collaboration also increases the efficacy of conservation.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Water balance as an indicator of natural resource condition: Case studies from Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

Managing climate impacts to natural resources in protected areas can be hampered by lack of monitoring data, poor understanding of natural resource responses to climate, or lack of timely condition assessments that can inform management actions. Here we demonstrate the utility of water balance as a tool for understanding natural resource responses to climate by developing case studies focused on stream flow, vegetation production, and wildfire ignition at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSDNP), U.S.A. The efficacy of water balance to predict these responses stems from the explicit integration of climate with site conditions that modify the effects of climate. This in turn results in estimates of water availability, water use, and water need that are proximal drivers of aquatic and terrestrial natural resource conditions. The water balance model successfully forecasted stream flow (r 2 = 0.69, P < 0.001); determined the critical water needs for maintaining annual vegetation production in different vegetation types spanning a large environmental gradient (r 2 = 0.18–0.71); and predicted proportion of historic wildfire ignitions in forest (r 2 = 0.96–0.99) and non-forest (r 2 = 0.96–0.97) vegetation types. Collectively, these case studies demonstrate practical approaches to translate climate data into assessments of natural resource condition that inform long-term planning and near-term strategic actions needed for conservation of protected areas.

Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve↗

USGS2019

Wetland drying linked to variations in snowmelt runoff across Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks

In Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks wetlands offer critical habitat and play a key role in supporting biological diversity. The shallow depths and small size of many wetlands make them vulnerable to changes in climate compared with larger and deeper aquatic habitats. Here, we use a simple water balance model to generate estimates of biophysical drivers of wetland change. We then examine the relationship between wetland inundation status and four principal drivers (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff) spanning varying meteorological conditions over an 8-year time series from Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks. We found that a higher percentage of surveyed wetlands were dry in years characterized by lower snowmelt runoff. While runoff-based models were most supported, wetland drying was also related to variations in April to June precipitation and temperatures. Our work shows that wetland drying was widespread across both parks, but sub-regional variations were best described at the hydrologic subbasin-level. Documenting the varying responses of wetlands to meteorological drivers is a necessary first step to identifying which subbasins are most sensitive to recent change and contemplating how future change may alter the distribution of wetlands and their dependent taxa.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2019

Patterns of primary production and ecological drought in Yellowstone

Introduction: Photosynthesis converts sunlight into stored energy in millions of leaves, flowers and seeds that maintain the web of life in Yellowstone. This transformation of energy fixes carbon, supplies organic matter to soils, and can become fuel for wildfire. As the first link of the food chain, new plant biomass is called primary production and provides energy to consumers, including wildlife. While Yellowstone is a mountain environment with deep winter snowpack, the park can get very dry in some years as evidenced by massive wildfires in 1988 and 2016. Droughts like these not only contribute to fire potential, but they affect primary production, the food chain and likely will play an increasingly important role in transforming vegetation structure and composition in the future. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought have been assessed quantitatively for many years, but key indicators of drought in wildland ecosystems have not been formally defined until recently (Crausbay et al., 2017). One promising new method to do this is by measuring how vegetation responds to negative effects of drought, and positive effects of favorable conditions that offset negative effects of drought. The balance of drought stress and growth has important implications for future vegetation condition as the climate of Yellowstone changes. Monitoring primary production, and predicting future vegetation changes are needed to provide a comprehensive view of park health and anticipate future ecosystem changes (Crabtree et al. 2009, Nemani et al. 2009). Although an important indicator of ecosystem condition, primary production can be time and resource-intensive to monitor in wildland settings using traditional ground-based methods such as clipping and weighing. Fortunately, ground-based methods can be complemented and enhanced by monitoring primary production with satellite imagery. Measurements of solar radiation reflectance in visible and near infra-red wavelengths can indicate primary production at frequent weekly intervals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) on satellites operated by NASA. The Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) uses this information to track changes in primary production across Yellowstone over time. They link these measurements to vegetation types, soils, and climate to understand where and when changes in production have occurred and may occur in the future.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2018

Landscape pivot points and responses to water balance in national parks of the southwest US

A recent drying trend that is expected to continue in the southwestern US underscores the need for site‐specific and near real‐time understanding of vegetation vulnerability so that land management actions can be implemented at the right time and place. We related the annual integrated normalized difference vegetation index (iNDVI), a proxy for vegetation production, to water balance across landscapes of the Colorado Plateau. We determined how changes in production per unit of water (vegetation responses) and the water balance amounts at which production shifted from above to below average values (pivot points), varied across dominant vegetation and soil types. Precipitation (PRCP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), water deficit ( D ), and soil moisture (SM) explained 13%–82% of variation in vegetation production. Along an increasing water availability gradient, vegetation responses to PRCP and AET increased, responses to SM decreased, and responses to D became more negative. We found trade‐offs between vegetation responses and pivot points within and across all vegetation types that were mediated by soil properties. Synthesis and applications . The water needed by native vegetation to maintain production depends on plant traits. The water available to vegetation depends on climate and soil properties that change along environmental gradients. Tracking this biologically relevant water availability in relation to water need provides an indicator of vegetation growth or stress that can help guide the time and place for management actions.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2017

Evaluating species-specific changes in hydrologic regimes: an iterative approach for salmonids in the Greater Yellowstone Area (USA)

Despite the importance of hydrologic regimes to the phenology, demography, and abundance of fishes such as salmonids, there have been surprisingly few syntheses that holistically assess regional, species-specific trends in hydrologic regimes within a framework of climate change. Here, we consider hydrologic regimes within the Greater Yellowstone Area in the Rocky Mountains of western North America to evaluate changes in hydrologic metrics anticipated to affect salmonids, a group of fishes with high regional ecological and socioeconomic value. Our analyses assessed trends across different sites and time periods (1930–, 1950–, and 1970–2015) as means to evaluate spatial and temporal shifts. Consistent patterns emerged from our analyses indicating substantial shifts to (1) earlier peak discharge events; (2) reductions of summer minimum streamflows; (3) declines in the duration of river ice; and (4) decreases in total volume of water. We found accelerated trends in hydrologic change for the 1970–2015 period, with an average peak discharge 7.5 days earlier, 27.5% decline in summer minimum streamflows, and a 15.6% decline in the annual total volume of water (1 October–September 30) across sites. We did observe considerable variability in magnitude of change across sites, suggesting different levels of vulnerability to a changing climate. Our analyses provide an iterative means for assessing climate predictions and an important step in identifying the climate resilience of landscapes.

Greater Yellowstone Area↗

USGS2016

Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen ( Cronartium ribicola , causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks ( Dendroctonus ponderosae , mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand-level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree-level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006–2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation efforts. Using tree-level observations, the National Park Service-led Greater Yellowstone Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-term Monitoring Program provided important ecological insight on the size-dependent effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and water availability on whitebark pine mortality. This ongoing monitoring campaign will continue to offer observations that advance conservation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Effects of climate and water balance across grasslands of varying C 3 and C 4 grass cover

Climate change in grassland ecosystems may lead to divergent shifts in the abundance and distribution of C 3 and C 4 grasses. Many studies relate mean climate conditions over relatively long time periods to plant cover, but there is still much uncertainty about how the balance of C 3 and C 4 species will be affected by climate at a finer temporal scale than season (individual events to months). We monitored cover at five grassland sites with co-dominant C 3 and C 4 grass species or only dominant C 3 grass species for 6 yr in national parks across the Colorado Plateau region to assess the influence of specific months of climate and water balance on changes in grass cover. C 4 grass cover increased and decreased to a larger degree than C 3 grass cover with extremely dry and wet consecutive years, but this response varied by ecological site. Climate and water balance explained 10–49% of the inter-annual variability of cover of C 3 and C 4 grasses at all sites. High precipitation in the spring and in previous year monsoon storms influenced changes in cover of C 4 grasses, with measures of water balance in the same months explaining additional variability. C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were dominant were influenced primarily by longer periods of climate, while C 3 grasses in grasslands where they were co-dominant with C 4 grasses were influenced little by climate anomalies at either short or long periods of time. Our results suggest that future changes in spring and summer climate and water balance are likely to affect cover of both C 3 and C 4 grasses, but cover of C 4 grasses may be affected more strongly, and the degree of change will depend on soils and topography where they are growing and the timing of the growing season.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2016

Pika ( Ochotona princeps ) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region

Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2016

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Grand Teton National Park, Yellowstone National Pa↗

USGS2016

Semi-arid vegetation response to antecedent climate and water balance windows

Questions Can we improve understanding of vegetation response to water availability on monthly time scales in semi-arid environments using remote sensing methods? What climatic or water balance variables and antecedent windows of time associated with these variables best relate to the condition of vegetation? Can we develop credible near-term forecasts from climate data that can be used to prepare for future climate change effects on vegetation? Location Semi-arid grasslands in Capitol Reef National Park, Utah, USA. Methods We built vegetation response models by relating the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from MODIS imagery in Mar–Nov 2000–2013 to antecedent climate and water balance variables preceding the monthly NDVI observations. We compared how climate and water balance variables explained vegetation greenness and then used a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance models to forecast monthly NDVI for three holdout years. Results Water balance variables explained vegetation greenness to a greater degree than climate variables for most growing season months. Seasonally important variables included measures of antecedent water input and storage in spring, switching to indicators of drought, input or use in summer, followed by antecedent moisture availability in autumn. In spite of similar climates, there was evidence the grazed grassland showed a response to drying conditions 1 mo sooner than the ungrazed grassland. Lead times were generally short early in the growing season and antecedent window durations increased from 3 mo early in the growing season to 1 yr or more as the growing season progressed. Forecast accuracy for three holdout years using a multi-model ensemble of climate and water balance variables outperformed forecasts made with a naïve NDVI climatology. Conclusions We determined the influence of climate and water balance on vegetation at a fine temporal scale, which presents an opportunity to forecast vegetation response with short lead times. This understanding was obtained through high-frequency vegetation monitoring using remote sensing, which reduces the costs and time necessary for field measurements and can lead to more rapid detection of vegetation changes that could help managers take appropriate actions.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

USGS2015

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2012

Assessment of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in selected surface water of the National Park Service Northern Colorado Plateau Network, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, from 1972 through 2007

Nutrients are a nationally recognized concern for water quality of streams, rivers, groundwater, and water bodies. Nutrient impairment is documented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as a primary cause of degradation in lakes and reservoirs, and nutrients are related to organic enrichment and oxygen depletion, which is an important cause of degradation in streams. Recently (2011), an effort to develop State-based numeric nutrient criteria has resulted in renewed emphasis on nutrients in surface water throughout the Nation. In response to this renewed emphasis and to investigate nutrient water quality for Northern Colorado Plateau Network streams, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, assessed total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentration data for 93 sites in or near 14 National Park units for the time period 1972 through 2007.

Arizona;Colorado;Idaho;New Mexico;Utah;Wyoming↗