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David P. Schwartz

Publications and source records attributed to David P. Schwartz.

49 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting Mare Island, Solano County, California

This report was prepared in response to a written request from the City of Vallejo, California, to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). By letter of October 4, 2002, the City requested that the USGS "provide advice to the City’s LNG Health and Safety Committee on its review of a potential liquid natural gas project" on the southern portion of Mare Island. The City specifically requested that the USGS advise the committee on potential hazards including fault rupture, earthquake ground motion, soil failure during earthquakes, tsunami and seiche, and landslides. The City requested that the USGS: (1) comment on these hazards, (2) describe its degree of confidence in its opinions, and (3) describe the scope of additional studies that will be needed if the City enters into an agreement with project sponsors. Advice was also requested on the selection of the safe shutdown and operating basis earthquakes as specified in the NFPA 59A standard (NFPA, 2001). This review of published reports and other publicly available information indicates that all of the hazards on which the USGS was asked to comment should be considered for the proposed project on the southern portion of Mare Island. Available information differs greatly for each of these potential hazards, and adequate understanding for design will require detailed site-specific investigations.

California↗
USGS1999

Timing of paleoearthquakes on the northern Hayward Fault: Preliminary evidence in El Cerrito, California

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities estimated that the northern Hayward fault had the highest probability (0.28) of producing a M7 Bay Area earthquake in 30 years (WGCEP, 1990). This probability was based, in part, on the assumption that the last large earthquake occurred on this segment in 1836. However, a recent study of historical documents concludes that the 1836 earthquake did not occur on the northern Hayward fault, thereby extending the elapsed time to at least 220 yr ago, the beginning of the written record. The average recurrence interval for a M7 on the northern Hayward is unknown. WGCEP (1990) assumed an interval of 167 years. The 1996 Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential estimated ~210 yr, based on extrapolations from southern Hayward paleoseismological studies and a revised estimate of 1868 slip on the southern Hayward fault. To help constrain the timing of paleoearthquakes on the northern Hayward fault for the 1999 Bay Area probability update, we excavated two trenches that cross the fault and a sag pond on the Mira Vista golf course. As the site is on the second fairway, we were limited to less than ten days to document these trenches. Analysis was aided by rapid C-14 dating of more than 90 samples which gave near real-time results with the trenches still open. A combination of upward fault terminations, disrupted strata, and discordant angular relations indicates at least four, and possibly seven or more, surface faulting earthquakes occurred during a 1630-2130 yr interval. Hence, average recurrence time could be <270 yr, but is no more than 710 yr. The most recent earthquake (MRE) occurred after AD 1640. Preliminary analysis of calibrated dates supports the assumption that no large historical (post-1776) earthquakes have ruptured the surface here, but the youngest dates need more corroboration. Analyses of pollen for presence of non-native species help to constrain the time of the MRE. The earthquake recurrence estimates described in this report are preliminary and should not be used as a basis for hazard estimates. Additional trenching is planned for this location to answer questions raised during the initial phase of trenching.

California↗
USGS1998

Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas fault

Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640–1659 A.D., 1679–1894 A.D., 1668–1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600 s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632–1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95–110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600 s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50–70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600 s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that lower slip sections of large events such as 1906 must fill in on a periodic basis with smaller and more frequent earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1993

A 100-year average recurrence interval for the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood, California

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.

California↗
USGS1991

The Wasatch fault zone, utah-segmentation and history of Holocene earthquakes

The Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) forms the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province and is the longest continuous, active normal fault (343 km) in the United States. It underlies an urban corridor of 1.6 million people (80% of Utah's population) representing the largest earthquake risk in the interior of the western United States. We have used paleoseismological data to identify 10 discrete segments of the WFZ. Five are active, medial segments with Holocene slip rates of 1–2 mm a −1 , recurrence intervals of 2000–4000 years and average lengths of about 50 km. Five are less active, distal segments with mostly pre-Holocene surface ruptures, late Quaternary slip rates of <0.5 mm a −1 recurrence intervals of ≥10,000 years and average lengths of about 20 km. Surface-faulting events on each of the medial segments of the WFZ formed 2–4-m-high scarps repeatedly during the Holocene; latest Pleistocene (14–15 ka) deposits commonly have scarps as much as 15–20 m in height. Segments identified from paleoseismological studies of other major late Quaternary normal faults in the northern Basin and Range province are 20–25 km long, or about half of that proposed for the medial segments of the WFZ.

Journal of Structural Geology↗
USGS1988

Geologic characterization of seismic sources: Moving into the 1990s

The objective of this paper is to discuss leading-edge directions in paleoseismology and seismic geology, particularly as they relate to characterizing seismic sources. The paper builds on earlier articles that discuss some of these trends (Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1986; Schwartz, 1987). There are several areas that appear to be especially important. These are: fault segmentation, which provides a physical framework for evaluating both the size and potential location of future earthquakes on a fault zone; earthquake recurrence models, which provide information on the frequency of different size earthquakes on a fault; and long-term earthquake potential, an area in which significant advances have been made through development of earthquake hazard models that use probabilistic methodology to incorporate the uncertainties in seismic source characterization and the evolving understanding of the earthquake process.

Conference Paper↗