Geology topics

David P. Coulter

Publications and source records attributed to David P. Coulter.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Mechanisms of Devils Lake’s responses to recent climatic wetting: Insights from a physically based hydrologic model

Study region Devils Lake Basin of the Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota, USA Study focus Understanding the mechanism of Devils Lake’s responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model. New hydrologic insights Model results illustrate that three distinct hydroclimatic periods occurred during the study: Water Years 2002–05, 2006–11, and 2012–18. Following a brief time of contraction and growth, the latter two periods provide a complete picture of a wetting to drying cycle during an overall wetting regime. From 2006–2011, Devils Lake (DL) grew primarily due to lateral inflow, driven by strong precipitation and high frozen soil content leading up to the 2011 floods. In addition, during wet years, the snowmelt streamflow from the eastern and central parts of the DL Basin contributes significantly to lake growth compared to the western part. By contrast, from 2012 to 18, DL entered a contraction period, dominated by evaporation losses and anthropogenic flood control operations. Contributors to upstream drying included low precipitation, minimal snowpack accumulation, slightly lower frozen soil ratios, and minimal snowmelt runoff.

North Dakota↗

USGS2026

Understanding co-invading species’ ecological strategies and interactions with causal inference and simple dynamic models: Bighead (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and Silver carp (H. molitrix) in the Illinois River, USA

Species interactions among multiple invasive species can present hidden challenges for management and eradication efforts. Bighead and Silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and H. molitrix , respectively) are closely related species that have co-invaded the Mississippi River and many of its tributaries, including the Illinois River. We used a combination of causal inference and dynamic models to test for interspecific interactions in a 10-year data set of hydroacoustic density data from the Illinois River. The results suggest that Bighead and Silver carp are exploiting different ecological strategies; where Bighead carp shows fast initial growth but low equilibrium density and Silver carp had a lower low-density growth rate but larger equilibrium population density. Further, we found evidence for a positive interspecific effect of Silver carp on Bighead carp. The mechanism leading to the observed positive interactions is unknown, but could be an effect of ecological facilitation, differential responses to harvest of both species, or hybridization and introgression. Finally, while these results provide valuable information in the ecological strategies and relationships between these species, simulations of the resulting models suggest that the magnitude of the positive interaction is likely too small to be exploited for innovative multispecies management interventions.

Illinois↗

USGS2025

Predicting aquatic habitat connectivity across watershed boundaries: Implications for interbasin spread of nonindigenous aquatic species.

Understanding habitat connectivity is critical for managing nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) spread. Dams and watershed boundaries can be impassable to NAS during typical conditions but may become temporarily passable during flooding. The goal of our project was to develop an approach for identifying locations of aquatic connectivity at a fine spatial scale along watershed boundaries using readily available data. To develop this approach, we focused on the potential for range expansion of invasive fish in the United States via possible cross-boundary habitat connections. First, we developed an index using metrics of elevation, watershed size, and geology at regular points along a watershed boundary to stratify points by likelihood of connectivity during high precipitation (>20 mm of precipitation in a 3-day period). We then used a subset of points across a gradient of connectivity likelihoods to gather Landsat-derived observed surface water data and developed a statistical model to predict surface water presence from landscape characteristics. We applied the model throughout the entire watershed boundary to identify locations of hydrologic connectivity during high-water events. The presence of surface water on watershed boundaries was predicted by the interactions between watershed boundary point elevation relative to the minimum adjacent HUC-12 elevations and watershed boundary point elevation relative to neighboring point elevations (marginal R 2 = 0.94). Our approach can be used to identify potential areas of surface water connectivity between watersheds quickly and easily at a fine spatial scale using readily available, remotely sensed data that can inform conservation and management actions across disciplines.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2025

Spatial variation of eDNA detection across an invasion gradient for invasive species monitoring programs

Spatial and temporal distribution data provide critical information for invasive species management. For example, distribution data can help managers with early detections and guiding other response actions. Environmental DNA (eDNA)-based sampling exists as one tool for monitoring invasive species. As part of bigheaded carp Hypophthalmichthys spp. monitoring efforts in the Illinois River, USA, we compared eDNA-based sampling results at multiple habitats across an invasion gradient in 2015. Greater densities of carp occurred downriver in the Illinois River and lower densities occurred upriver. We sampled from five locations along this gradient and from three habitat types (backwater, main channel, and shoreline) within each location. We sampled each location in April and June. A priori , we hypothesized that more eDNA detections would occur downriver, where higher densities of carp occur; that more eDNA detections would occur in backwater habitats compared to areas of the river with more fish movement; and that more eDNA detections would occur in April, because bigheaded carps are thought to use our sampling areas more during the spring. We compared the proportion of samples positive across this gradient, the habitat type, and the two sampling time periods. The most downriver location had the highest proportion of samples with eDNA detections, the backwater habitats had the highest proportion of samples with eDNA detections, and April had more positive detections than June. Our results highlight the importance of sampling across multiple habitat types and across time to gain a clear understanding of distribution when using eDNA-based sampling. Thus, being cognizant of the interactions between seasonal habitat use and eDNA-based detections is important for managers who rely upon eDNA-based monitoring.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Water-level changes impact angler effort in a large lake: Implications for climate change

Climate change is expected to influence aquatic habitats and associated fish populations, yet we know little about the impact on recreational anglers. Our goal was to explore whether interannual fluctuations in waterbody surface area and other explanatory variables could be used as indicators of changes in angler fishing effort. Our approach leveraged a combination of remotely sensed waterbody surface area, environmental and fish population data, and onsite angler survey monitoring data for Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA during the open-water fishing period (May 1st to August 31st) for 9 years (1992–2021). The information was used to develop a dynamic waterbody size-angler effort model. Changes in waterbody surface area reliably predicted changes in angler effort (r 2 = 0.60). Increases in waterbody surface area led to increases in angler effort, and decreases in waterbody surface area led to decreases in angler effort. Our findings show promise that remotely sensed fluctuations in waterbody surface area could be used as an indicator of interannual angler effort dynamics. Dynamic waterbody size-angler effort models could provide managers the ability to predict changes in angler effort via climate-related hydrological cycles that affect the size and distribution of waterbodies on the landscape.

North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Incorporating metapopulation dynamics to inform invasive species management: Evaluating bighead and silver carp control strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals.

Illinois↗

USGS2021

Demographic rate variability of Bighead and Silver Carps along an invasion gradient

Invasive Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix have infested and caused largescale ecological and economic damage to the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers. We compiled demographic data from 42,995 fish from 23 pools in the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers, which universities and management agencies previously collected as part of management, monitoring, and research activities. We used this data set to test whether demographic rates (length–weight relations including body condition, mortality, growth curves, and female maturity curves) varied among subpopulations across a gradient of invasion status. We found that length–weight relations and growth curves varied among subpopulations, whereas maturity curves did not. Our findings demonstrated spatial variability in demographic rates for Bighead and Silver carp across a broad geographic area in relation to invasion status and river conditions. Herein, we provide general subpopulation management options and present different hypotheses to explain the observed spatial variability in demographic rates.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia↗

USGS2018

Multistate models of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River reveal spatial dynamics of invasive species

Knowledge of the spatial distributions and dispersal characteristics of invasive species is necessary for managing the spread of highly mobile species, such as invasive bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] and Silver Carp [ H. molitrix ]). Management of invasive bigheaded carps in the Illinois River has focused on using human-made barriers and harvest to limit dispersal towards the Laurentian Great Lakes. Acoustic telemetry data were used to parameterize multistate models to examine the spatial dynamics of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River to (1) evaluate the effects of existing dams on movement, (2) identify how individuals distribute among pools, and (3) gauge the effects of reductions in movement towards the invasion front. Multistate models estimated that movement was generally less likely among upper river pools (Starved Rock, Marseilles, and Dresden Island) than the lower river (La Grange and Peoria) which matched the pattern of gated versus wicket style dams. Simulations using estimated movement probabilities indicated that Bighead Carp accumulate in La Grange Pool while Silver Carp accumulate in Alton Pool. Fewer Bighead Carp reached the upper river compared to Silver Carp during simulations. Reducing upstream movement probabilities (e.g., reduced propagule pressure) by ≥ 75% into any of the upper river pools could reduce upper river abundance with similar results regardless of location. Given bigheaded carp reproduction in the upper Illinois River is presently limited, reduced movement towards the invasion front coupled with removal of individuals reaching these areas could limit potential future dispersal towards the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗