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David J. Wald

Publications and source records attributed to David J. Wald.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Quantitative evaluations of earthquake early warning performance using “Did You Feel It?” and post-alert surveys

We examine responses to the U.S. Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) survey and its companion earthquake early warning (EEW) questionnaire to assess the performance of the U.S. ShakeAlert EEW system directly from the alert recipients’ perspectives. ShakeAlert rapidly detects earthquakes and develops alert information, but as official alert delivery partners issue these alerts, it is thus difficult to determine how many people were alerted and when. We investigate DYFI reports for six California earthquakes that had EEW alerts and substantial responses to the DYFI EEW questionnaire. Comparisons of ShakeAlert predictions to reported intensities demonstrate that magnitude estimation accuracy is not necessarily indicative of ground-motion prediction accuracy. Perceived warning time distributions indicate that estimating maximum-expected warning times using the S-wave arrival is a reasonable assumption when discussing public EEW performance. However, we also find many reports of shorter warning times, late alerts, and missed alerts than expected based on ShakeAlert publication times, suggesting alert delivery latencies are substantial and highly variable. The novelty of our analysis is that we demonstrate that the DYFI EEW survey provides useful EEW efficacy information—independent of the specific alerting pathway—that can be used to inform our choices for conveying EEW performance.

California↗

Site-specific, extended ShakeMaps for earthquake engineering applications

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) routinely produces ShakeMaps of shaking intensity across the globe. Due to practical constraints, the number of response spectral periods was limited to three standard periods (0.3, 1.0, and 3.0 sec). We have recently developed the tools that are necessary to expand this functionality to include 22 periods (matching the current U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model periods) as well as the orientation-independent components (e.g., “RotD50”). We refer to ShakeMap products that include these extensions as “extended ShakeMaps.” The added level of complexity motivated us to also develop a user-friendly tool called the “ShakeMap Sampling Tool” (SST) that gives all the estimated shaking metrics for a specific location (or list of locations). Additionally, we develop a web application where users can input locations of interest and view/download the SST results. We further familiarize users with the concept of “Composite ShakeMaps.” For earthquakes sequences such as a mainshock and larger foreshocks and aftershocks, this provides a map of the maximum value of each shaking metric, which is useful for overall loss estimates, the full extent of ground failure triggering potential, and a better portrayal of the repeated shaking levels at a given point for a series of earthquakes. Such a site-specific shaking history facilitates earthquake forensics at building or infrastructure sites for which damage may be of concern, as described in the Disproportionate Damage Earthquake trigger specified in the IEBC (2018, Section 405.2.2) and in developing ATC-145 guidelines (Guidelines for Post-Earthquake Assessment, Repair, and Retrofit of Buildings). The composite ShakeMap can be combined with the SST for a variety of earthquake-hazard applications, such as systematically inferring triggering shaking estimates at specific sites of geotechnical interest for landsliding, liquefaction, and lateral-spreading hazards.

Kahramanmaraş↗

Near-real-time earthquake-induced fatality estimation using crowdsourced data and few-shot large-language models

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties (e.g., fatalities and injuries) is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast of such impacts within about 30 min of any significant earthquake globally. However, existing disaster-induced human loss estimation systems often rely on early casualty reports manually retrieved from global traditional media, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and have significant time latencies. Recent approaches use keyword matching and topic modeling to identify human casualty-relevant information from social media but tend to be error-prone when dealing with complex semantics in multi-lingual text data and parsing dynamically changing and conflicting human death and injury numbers shared by various unvetted sources in social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (i) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (ii) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (iii) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework effectively automates the retrieval of casualty information faster but with comparable accuracy to those now retrieved manually by the USGS. The code associated with this work is made available at: https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/Hierarchical-Earthquake-Casualty-Information-Retrieval

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: A retrospective analysis

The 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake was a watershed event, with far-reaching societal and scientific impacts. The earthquake, which occurred in the early days of both broadband seismic networks and the Internet, spurred advances in seismic monitoring, real-time systems, and development of data products. Motivated by the 30th anniversary of the earthquake, we present a brief retrospective of the earthquake and its impact, and reconsider both ground motions and the aftershock distribution using modern tools and best-available data. With improvements in instrumentation and analysis methodology, recent earthquakes continue to reveal increasing complexity of ground motions, fault systems, and earthquake ruptures. Even in the absence of data from state-of-the art instrumentation, a retrospective consideration of ground motion data from the Northridge earthquake reveals complexities beyond what could be characterized (and modeled) thirty years ago. Aftershock relocations for both the 1971 Sylmar and 1994 Northridge earthquakes also reveal an updated view of fault complexity. Our study does provide a cautionary tale regarding legacy data sets and research results that are not easily accessible, which can result in discrepancies between catalog data and products from best-available science. We also briefly describe outreach products produced as part of the anniversary commemoration.

California↗

Developing and implementing an International Macroseismic Scale (IMS) for earthquake engineering, earthquake science, and rapid damage assessment

Executive Summary Macroseismic observations and analysis connect our collective seismological past with the present and the present to the future by facilitating hazard estimates and communicating the effects of ground shaking to a wide variety of audiences across the ages. Invaluable ground shaking and building damage information is gained through standardized, systematic approaches for assigning intensities and, importantly, sharing and archiving those assignments in a reproducible form. The applications for these assignments are far reaching. Traditional macroseismic surveys provide vital constraints on critical aspects of earthquakes and their effects on society, whereas internet-based macroseismic datasets are extremely valuable for real-time earthquake situational awareness, and they contribute to later engineering loss and risk analyses. These important applications of macroseismic observations would be helped by revisiting traditional macroseismic surveys for modern environments, standardizing internet-based collection strategies, and ensuring compatibility between traditional and internet-based approaches of macroseismic data collection. Even with best practices, we have identified several limitations with modern macroseismic data collection approaches, particularly from the U.S. Geological Survey's perspective. First, whereas crowdsourced, internet-based intensities such as “Did You Feel It?” are robust and definitive for lower intensities, they are poorly defined above intensity VII, where damage observations may require expert knowledge of each building’s structural system. Second, in the United States, we use the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale, which is consistent with—yet inferior to—the more recently developed European Macroseismic Scale (EMS–98; Grünthal and others, 1998). Similarly, New Zealand uses the New Zealand MMI Scale (Dowrick and others, 2008), which lacks detail on how to assign intensities above MMI VIII. The EMS–98 fundamentally advanced the science of macroseismic intensity assignment by requiring quantitative assessments at each location through consistent application on statistical ranges of well-defined damage grades to building-specific vulnerability classes. Lastly, the United States and New Zealand no longer have professionals dedicated to conducting traditional macroseismic field surveys, so a strategy is needed for allowing postearthquake building inspectors and insurance loss assessors to contribute to intensity assignments. The goals of our International Macroseismic Scale workshop were thus twofold. First, harmonize the MMI Scale with EMS–98 for the United States and New Zealand—which share several similar building types—by considering those structures and associated damage grades that are not well represented in the current EMS–98 building vulnerability class table. Second, begin to formalize the process of augmenting EMS–98 with new regional building classes and damage grades toward the development of a macroseismic scale that can be used globally, beyond the United States and New Zealand. Such an effort necessarily requires reviewing and expanding the original EMS–98 explanatory documents and consideration of any required revisions. We can build on the shoulders of giants in that a few of the original EMS–98 developers and experts participated in and were integral to our workshop. Their background and guidance were key in moving forward toward an international scale. We agreed that additional building vulnerability classes, damage grades, and written and pictorial descriptions are necessary and ideally accompanied by a detailed paper trail for other nations to follow. If we can improve the macroseismic assignment process in both nations, we can also aim to refine the process of collecting postearthquake impact data, a boon to many engineering and financial concerns. The benefits of a truly International Macroseismic Scale are considerable for both the engineering and seismology communities. A modern macroseismic scale requires more deliberate archival damage data collection, motivating more consistent and accessible postevent datasets that would have applications beyond the specific event. Applying field-collected building damage data toward macroseismic assignments would allow for increased coordination between engineering reconnaissance teams and local inspectors in collecting such data for official purposes. In addition, rapid and consistent intensity assignments globally would enable more accurate ShakeMaps—and thus improved earthquake engineering and geotechnical forensics, loss and risk estimates, and correlations between macroseismic intensity and ground motion parameters. A brief summary of the Powell Center IMS workshop was published by Wald and others (2023) in the magazine Eos. This Open-File Report describes the workshop, its discussions, and its outcomes in detail. In summarizing the workshop, we have added important background material and reflections for proper context.

Open-File Report↗

A journey to the center of the USGS National Strong-motion Project processing and beyond

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) has the primary U.S. government responsibility to acquire, process, and disseminate significant strong-motion earthquake ground motion records measured at surficial free-field stations, structures (buildings, dams, and bridges, and geotechnical arrays to the earthquake engineering community. As a result of the deployment of modern seismic instrumentation and growth of tools such as web-services, earthquake data from U.S. and international seismic networks are more accessible than ever. Our mission is to provide raw and processed strong-motion waveforms with PGA values greater than 0.1%g for M3.0 earthquakes and larger in California and M4.0 and larger within the conterminous US, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Alaska. Datasets of interest to the engineering and geophysics communities, such as event sequences in areas of induced seismicity and significant global events, are also processed and posted at the Center for Engineering Strong Motion Data (CESMD) at strongmotioncenter.org when available through collaboration with the international strong-motion data community. Here we outline (1) the NSMP’s current workflow to acquire, process, and distribute data at CESMD; (2) our new endeavours and collaborations focusing on comparison and integration of waveform processing software, development of techniques for metadata quality checks before and after earthquakes, and construction of a dynamic site characterization repository; and (3) our topics for possible collaboration topics across the global strong-motion community.

Conference Paper↗

DisasterNet: Causal Bayesian networks with normalizing flows for cascading hazards

Sudden-onset hazards like earthquakes often induce cascading secondary hazards (e.g., landslides, liquefaction, debris flows, etc.) and subsequent impacts (e.g., building and infrastructure damage) that cause catastrophic human and economic losses. Rapid and accurate estimates of these hazards and impacts are critical for timely and effective post-disaster responses. Emerging remote sensing techniques provide pre- and post-event satellite images for rapid hazard estimation. However, hazards and damage often co-occur or colocate with underlying complex cascading geophysical processes, making it challenging to directly differentiate multiple hazards and impacts from satellite imagery using existing single-hazard models. We introduce DisasterNet, a novel family of causal Bayesian networks to model processes that a major hazard triggers cascading hazards and impacts and further jointly induces signal changes in remotely sensed observations. We integrate normalizing flows to effectively model the highly complex causal dependencies in this cascading process. A triplet loss is further designed to leverage prior geophysical knowledge to enhance the identifiability of our highly expressive Bayesian networks. Moreover, a novel stochastic variational inference with normalizing flows is derived to jointly approximate posteriors of multiple unobserved hazards and impacts from noisy remote sensing observations. Integrating with the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, our framework is evaluated in recent global earthquake events. Evaluation results show that DisasterNet significantly improves multiple hazard and impact estimation compared to existing USGS products.

Conference Paper↗

Alerting the globe of consequential earthquakes

The primary ingredients on the hazard side of the equation include the rapid characterization of the earthquake source and quantifying the spatial distribution of the shaking, plus any secondary hazards an earthquake may have triggered. On the earthquake impact side, loss calculations require the aforementioned hazard assessments—and their uncertainties—as input, plus the quantification of the exposure and vulnerability of structures, infrastructure, and the affected inhabitants. Lastly, effectively communicating uncertain estimates of the resulting impacts on society requires careful consideration of its function and form. All these aspects of rapid earthquake information delivery entailed wide-ranging collaborative research and development among seismologists, earthquake engineers, geographers, social scientists, Information Technology professionals, and communication experts, leveraging diverse components and ingredients not achievable without extensive collaboration. I was very fortunate to be able to work on interesting and useful projects with many colleagues who got involved with them. Advances in content, its rapid delivery, and our ability to better communicate uncertain loss estimates greatly expanded the range of users and critical decision-makers who could directly benefit from rapid post-earthquake information. Moreover, in the critical user–developer feedback loop, we have intently followed requests from users to develop new ways of delivering the most-requested post-earthquake information within the limitations of the science and technology. Such new avenues and tools then motivated and prioritized additional research directions and developments.

Perspectives of Earth and Space Scientists↗

Modern products for a vintage event: An update on the 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake

When a notable earthquake occurs in the United States, a range of familiar real‐ and near‐real‐time products are produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), and made available via the ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. For historical and early instrumental earthquakes, similar results and products are developed depending on data availability and event significance, drawing from published later studies. The year 2023 marked the ninetieth anniversary of the 11 March 1933 Long Beach, California, earthquake. This anniversary provided the impetus to update ANSS products, drawing on archived and published data. Here, we describe the updated ShakeMap, shaking recordings and intensities, and retrospective aftershock forecast for the Long Beach, California, earthquake. In effect we have developed standard, modern ANSS products for an earthquake that occurred 90 yr ago. Our results show that the distributions of both the ground motions, anchored by three strong‐motion recordings, and aftershock magnitudes are consistent with expectations for an M 6.4 mainshock in Southern California. We show that, notwithstanding possible limitations, instrumentally recorded accelerations from the closest station are consistent with predicted shaking and directly estimated macroseismic intensities. Updated data products have been added to the USGS event page, where they are available for download. Public‐facing products were also created for the anniversary and are freely available on the USGS website.

California↗

Rapid characterization of the February 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, earthquake sequence

The 6 February 2023 M w "> M w 7.8 Pazarcık and subsequent M w "> M w 7.5 Elbistan earthquakes generated strong ground shaking that resulted in catastrophic human and economic loss across south‐central Türkiye and northwest Syria. The rapid characterization of the earthquakes, including their location, size, fault geometries, and slip kinematics, is critical to estimate the impact of significant seismic events. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) provides real‐time monitoring of earthquakes globally, including rapid source characterization and impact estimates. Here, we describe the seismic characterization products generated and made available by the NEIC over the two weeks following the start of the earthquake sequence in southeast Türkiye, their evolution, and how they inform our understanding of regional seismotectonics and hazards. The kinematics of rupture for the two earthquakes was complex, involving multiple fault segments. Therefore, incorporating observations from rupture mapping was critical for characterizing these events. Dense local datasets facilitated robust source characterization and impact assessment once these observations were obtained and converted to NEIC product input formats. We discuss how we may improve the timeliness of NEIC products for rapid assessment of future seismic hazards, particularly in the case of complex ruptures.

The Seismic Record↗

Causality-informed Bayesian inference for rapid seismic ground failure and building damage estimation

Rapid and accurate estimates of seismic ground failure and building damage are beneficial to efficient emergency response and post-earthquake recovery. Traditional approaches, such as physical and geospatial models, have poor accuracy and resolution due to large uncertainties and the limited availability of informing geospatial layers. The introduction of remote sensing techniques has shown potential in providing supplementary information for rapid hazard estimation by analyzing earthquake-induced correlation changes between pre- and post-event satellite images. However, the changes in satellite images are the result of overlapping ground failure, building damage, and environmental noise, making it challenging to categorize and estimate different seismic hazards and impacts directly from satellite images.Here we design a novel causality-informed Bayesian network that continuously updates seismic ground failure and building damage estimates from satellite images by modeling the physical interdependencies between geospatial features, ground failure, building footprints, building damage, and satellite images. The incorporation of physical interdependencies allows an effective fusion of physical models and rich but noisy information from remote sensing observations and reduces bias and uncertainties in estimations. Our experiments show that integrating satellite images through our Bayesian network improves the accuracy of seismic ground failure and building damage estimations.

Conference Paper↗

Seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation via causal inference from satellite imagery

Rapid post-earthquake reconnaissance is important for emergency responses and rehabilitation by providing accurate and timely information about secondary hazards and impacts, including landslide, liquefaction, and building damage. Despite the extensive collection of geospatial data and satellite images, existing physics-based and data-driven methods suffer from low estimation performance due to the complex and event-specific causal dependencies underlying the cascading processes of earthquake-triggered hazards and impacts. Herein, we present a rapid seismic multi-hazard and impact estimation system that leverages advanced statistical causal inference and remote sensing techniques. The unique feature of this system is that it provides accurate and high-resolution estimations on a regional scale by jointly inferring multiple hazards and building damage from satellite images through modeling their causal dependencies. We evaluate our system on multiple seismic events from diverse countries around the globe. Our results corroborate that incorporating causal dependencies significantly improves large-scale estimation accuracy for multiple hazards and impacts compared to existing systems. The results also reveal quantitative causal mechanisms among earthquake-triggered multi-hazard and impact for multiple seismic events. Our system establishes a new way to extract and utilize the complex interactions of multiple hazards and impacts for effective disaster responses and advancing understanding of seismic geological processes.

Nature Communications↗

Assessing direct and indirect long-term economic impacts from earthquakes to the U.S. National Bridge Inventory

Using the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2018 National Bridge Inventory, an annualized earthquake loss (AEL) study was conducted for approximately 610,000 bridges in the conterminous United States, quantifying both direct and indirect economic losses. The typical AEL framework has been augmented with new replacement unit cost data and bridge-specific parameters for modifying default fragility curves. Earthquake hazard is defined using spectral acceleration hazard curves that account for location-specific soil conditions. Hazard is integrated with bridge-specific fragility curves to compute annual probabilities of exceeding various damage states. Further, economic loss for each bridge was estimated using the repair costs associated with specific damage states and indirect costs incurred from downtimes. Quantitative assessments of seismic risk, especially those that account for downtime-related impacts, enable us to illustrate the distribution of risk with respect to geographic region, era of construction, or type of bridge.

conterminous United States↗

Critical ShakeCast lifeline users and their response protocols

ShakeCast is a US Geological Survey (USGS) software application that automatically retrieves ShakeMap shaking estimates and performs analyses using fragility functions for buildings and lifelines. The ShakeCast system aims to identify which facilities or lifeline segments are most likely impacted by an earthquake—and thus which ones should be prioritized for inspection and response—and sends notifications to responders in the minutes after an event. By focusing inspection efforts on the most damage-susceptible facilities in the severely shaken areas, ShakeCast can improve critical lifeline inspection prioritization and reduce response time in the aftermath of a significant earthquake. Overviews and technical specifications of the ShakeCast system and software have been presented at earlier conferences; here we discuss ShakeCast users and their response protocols to provide further insight into the use of the ShakeCast system. We focus on case histories of ShakeCast users who are responsible for monitoring and response for critical infrastructure. We emphasize the inventory, fragility, and notification issues pertinent to these users, their efforts in developing protocols for post-earthquake inspections, and response.

Conference Paper↗

Development of a companion questionnaire for “Did You Feel It?”: Assessing response in earthquakes where an earthquake early warning may have been received

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are relatively new technologies having first emerged as regional systems in the 1990s. Japan was the first nation to develop and implement a nationwide system in October 2007, and in the United States, ShakeAlert ® became available on the entire length of the US West Coast in May 2021. Assessing how EEW is perceived and utilized by alert recipients is considered essential. Such assessments are necessary to evaluate whether alert recipients are taking advantage of alert messages to initiate protective actions upon receipt of an alert, how they regard the usefulness of alerts, desirable thresholds for issuing alerts, and other aspects of these systems. Having information from users will also facilitate assessments of the success of earthquake preparedness educational programs such as the ShakeOut and whether annual drills which include information on EEW systems are resulting in behavioral response consistent with the content of these programs. Finally, information on EEW utilization will provide data useful to social scientists who study hazards to advance our understanding of behavioral response to warnings. Survey research in the aftermath of a significant earthquake in which an EEW has been issued is one obvious method of achieving these objectives and there already exist a number of survey instruments for this purpose. A related strategy and the goal of the present research is to develop a brief questionnaire, consistent with those already developed, as a supplement to the United States Geological Survey’s “Did You Feel It?” questionnaire that has provided earthquake intensities and information on behavioral response in earthquakes, both domestic and international, since 2004. Having the intensity level at each respondent’s location is essential for relating their perspectives and actions to the shaking they experienced.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Improving the Development Pipelines for USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Real-Time and Scenario Products

The real-time and scenario products of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, such as the ComCat catalog, Did You Feel It?, ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER, are highly visible and used by a wide variety of stakeholders. We propose two significant enhancements to the development pipelines for the Earthquake Hazards Program real-time and scenario products that have far-reaching benefits. First, we propose incorporating processed and archived ground-motion records into the data streams for real-time products. This increases reproducibility and transparency for ShakeMap and downstream products that serve critical functions in earthquake response and long-term research. It will also provide comprehensive, open access databases of ground-motion metrics (for example, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and acceleration response spectra) and ground-motion time histories that are fundamental tools in most engineering seismology studies. Second, we propose extending the pipeline for scenario products to provide a full set of complementary products to the real-time pipeline. This would define a comprehensive set of standards for archiving scenarios, including three-dimensional ground-motion simulations, and allow the suite of scenario products to be disseminated in the same way as real-time products. Ultimately, these enhancements would increase the value of some of the most important Earthquake Hazards Program products and transform the way USGS scientists and the engineering seismology community conduct ground-motion research.

Conference Paper↗

Earthquake scenario selection for portfolio holders in CEUS: A case study with Oklahoma DOT

Portfolio managers of spatially distributed assets in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) and other low- to moderate seismic hazard regions require scenario-based seismic risk assessment for the purpose of emergency management and planning. Uncertainties regarding the long-term seismicity of the region, unknown faults, and limited historical records complicate the selection of an earthquake scenario. Through a case study with the Oklahoma Department of Transportation (ODOT) and their portfolio of bridges, we look at one such exercise, which consists of two scenario earthquakes: one scenario earthquake selected from the U.S. Geological Survey Building Seismic Safety Commission (BSSC) scenario catalog, a magnitude (M) 7.2 event on the Meers fault, and a second aftershock selected by the consequence-driven earthquake scenario selection (Co-DESS) method. The latter is driven by ODOT’s desired service actions to be included during the earthquake drill; in this case, we identify an earthquake that is likely to trigger inspections for bridges across multiple districts, thereby testing not only inspection protocols but also coordination efforts between district groups. We find that the Co-DESS selected event is smaller in magnitude and offers different geographical options than selection through conventional selection methods, while still meeting necessary consequences for an effective earthquake exercise.

Conference Paper↗