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David H. Schoellhamer

Publications and source records attributed to David H. Schoellhamer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2020

Suspended-sediment Flux in the San Francisco Estuary; Part II: the Impact of the 2013–2016 California Drought and Controls on Sediment Flux

Recent modeling has demonstrated that sediment supply is one of the primary environmental variables that will determine the sustainability of San Francisco Estuary tidal marshes over the next century as sea level rises. Therefore, understanding the environmental controls on sediment flux within the San Francisco Estuary is crucial for optimal planning and management of tidal marsh restoration. Herein, we present suspended-sediment flux estimates from water year (WY) 2009–2016 from the San Francisco Estuary to investigate the environmental controls and impact of the record 2013–2016 California drought. During the recent drought, sediment flux into Lower South Bay, the southernmost subembayment of the San Francisco Estuary, increased by 345% from 114 kt/year from WY 2009 to 2011 to 508 kt/year from WY 2014 to 2016, while local tributary sediment flux declined from 209 to 51 kt/year. Total annual sediment flux from WY 2009 to 2011 and 2014 to 2016 can be predicted by total annual freshwater inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta ( R 2 = 0.83, p < 0.01), the primary source of freshwater input into the San Francisco Estuary. The volume of freshwater inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is hypothesized to affect shoal-to-channel density gradients that affect sediment flux from broad, typically more saline and turbid shoals, to the main tidal-channel seaward of Lower South Bay. During the drought, freshwater inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta decreased, and replacement of typically more saline shoal water was reduced. As a result, landward-increasing cross-channel density gradients enhanced shoal-to-channel advective flux that increased sediment available for tidal dispersion and drove an increase in net-landward sediment flux into Lower South Bay.

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USGS2018

Measurements of erosion potential using Gust chamber in Yolo Bypass near Sacramento, California

This report describes work performed to quantify the erodibility of surface soils in the Yolo Bypass (Bypass) near Sacramento, California, for use in the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) Yolo Bypass D-MCM mercury model. The Bypass, when not serving as a floodway, is heavily utilized for agriculture. During flood events, surface water flows over the soil, resulting in the application of a shear stress to the soil. The shear stress is a function of flow speed and is often assumed to vary as the square of flow speed. Once the shear stress reaches a critical value, erosion commences, and the erosion rate typically increases with applied shear stress. The goal of the work described here was to quantify this process and how it varies throughout the major land uses found in the Yolo Bypass. Each of the major land uses found in the Bypass was targeted for sediment coring and two side-by-side cores, 10 centimeters in diameter, were extracted at each site for testing in a Gust erosion chamber. This device consists of a cylinder with a piston and cap installed to contain a sediment sample and overlying water. In most instances, coring was done with the cylinder, the piston and cap were installed, and testing commenced immediately. The cap at the top of the cylinder contains vanes to induce rotation of the flow and is driven by an electric motor, simulating the bed shear stress experienced by the soil in a flood event. Ambient water is introduced to the cylinder, passes through the device, and carries eroded sediment out of the chamber. The exiting water is tested for turbidity, and water samples obtained to relate turbidity to suspended sediment concentration are used to compute erosion rates for each of the applied shear stresses. The result for each sediment core is (1) definition of the critical shear stress required to initiate sediment erosion and (2) estimation of coefficients required to relate erosion rate to applied shear stress once this critical shear-stress threshold has been exceeded. These quantities were computed for each of the sites sampled. In total, 10 locations were sampled, representing 10 land uses ranging from wild and white rice fields to the flooded Liberty Island and the Toe Drain that receives runoff from much of the cultivated land (table 1). The Gust chamber test causes the erosion of a very small layer of sediment, typically less than a millimeter thick. The strength of the soil within this layer increases with depth, typically, and this soil strength versus depth is measured in the testing process. Results for each land use type tested are presented as the initial critical shear stress at which erosion began and the rate at which erosion increases as shear stress increases (table 2). Of the land use types sampled, irrigated pasture displayed the lowest critical shear stress, meaning that it required the smallest flow speed to initiate erosion. But in this case, the rate of increase of the subsequent erosion, given higher flow speeds, was small. The wild rice field samples exhibited a higher critical shear stress but also exhibited a much higher erosion rate once the critical shear stress was exceeded. The erosion rate for wild rice was about three times greater than that for white rice. Bear in mind that these results are based on only two cores tested per site, and variability between fields with the same crop could be significant. Approved digital data can be viewed and downloaded from ScienceBase, at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7BV7DQC . These results are being used to calculate erosion rates in the DWR Yolo Bypass D-MCM mercury model. The Toe Drain was very difficult to sample, owing to hard, consolidated sediments on the channel bed. On the first visit, two cores were obtained successfully, and testing revealed very different results. A second visit was made, but it was not possible to obtain cores suitable for testing with the coring equipment used. The available results suggest that Toe Drain soil is highly erodible (low critical shear stress and high erosion rate once initiated) despite being difficult to sample. As a collector of runoff, it also has the potential to accumulate soils eroded from adjacent areas, subsequent to storm events, as flows subside. This deposited material will typically be more erodible than the material that it lands on. The deposition and resuspension of material was not simulated in the testing described here because the applied shear stress increases monotonically during testing. The spatial distribution of mean grain size, loss on ignition, and percent fines of Yolo Bypass soils are also presented. Sediment sampling for this effort was performed by DWR; the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) performed the sample analysis. These data should thus be considered provisional, but the remainder of the data presented here, and this report, have been through the formal U.S. Geological Survey review process. A separate effort has been made by others to develop numerical model results defining the spatially varying, time-dependent hydrodynamics in the Yolo Bypass. These model results are being used to quantify shear stress on the soil surface, which together with the Gust chamber results shown here, are used for the DWR Yolo Bypass D-MCM mercury transport model to compute erosion rates for each time step.

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USGS2018

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2014–15

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay (bay) as part of a multi-agency effort to address management, water supply, and ecological concerns. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the bay teems both with resident and with migratory wildlife, plants, and fish. Freshwater mixes with salt water in the bay, which is subject both to riverine influences (floods, droughts, managed reservoir releases and freshwater diversions) and to marine influences (tides, waves, effects of salt water). To understand this environment, the USGS, along with its partners (see “Acknowledgements”), has been monitoring the bay’s waters continuously since 1988. Several water-quality variables are of particular importance to State and Federal resource managers and are monitored at key locations throughout the bay (fig. 1). Salinity, which indicates the relative mixing of fresh and ocean waters in the bay, is derived from specific conductance measurements. Water temperature, along with salinity, affects the density of water, which controls gravity-driven circulation patterns and stratification in the water column. Turbidity, a measure of light scattered from suspended particles in the water, is used to estimate suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Suspended sediment affects the bay in multiple ways: attenuation of sunlight in the water column, affecting phytoplankton growth; deposition on tidal marsh and intertidal mudflats, which can help sustain these habitats as sea level rises; deposition in ports and shipping channels, which can necessitate dredging; and often, adsorption of contaminants, affecting their distribution and concentrations in the environment. Dissolved oxygen concentration, essential to a healthy ecosystem and a fundamental indicator of water quality, is affected by water temperature, salinity, ecosystem metabolism, tidal currents, and wind. Tidal currents in the bay reverse four times a day, and wind direction and intensity typically vary on a daily cycle. Consequently, salinity, water temperature, SSC, and dissolved-oxygen concentration vary spatially and temporally throughout the bay. Therefore, continuous measurements are needed to observe these changes. The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide information about these variables, as well as internet links to access these continuous water-quality data collected by the USGS.

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USGS2018

Sediment supply to San Francisco Bay, water years 1995 through 2016: Data, trends, and monitoring recommendations to support decisions about water quality, tidal wetlands, and resilience to sea level rise

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood control, contaminants, water clarity (in relation to primary production), and sea level rise. Several sitespecific studies of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay have been conducted, but no synthesis of recent studies is available. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the best available data and knowledge to answer a few of the key study questions related to sediment supply to the Bay (listed below). This synthesis report was prepared jointly by the Regional Monitoring Program for Water Quality in San Francisco Bay (RMP) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) with funding from both organizations. The project is meant to be a step in the development of a more comprehensive sediment management and monitoring strategy for the Bay. What are the magnitudes and sources of fine and coarse sediment transported to San Francisco Bay? Net sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from terrestrial sources during the most recent 22- year period (water years [WY] 1995-2016) was 1.9+/-0.8 Mt/yr (1 Mt is one million metric tonnes or 1 billion kilograms). Sixty-three percent of the sediment supply was from small tributaries that drain directly to the Bay. Net supply from the Central Valley (measured at Mallard Island) was 37% of the total supply. Bedload supply, after accounting for dredging, removals, storage in flood control channels, and errors in measurements was indistinguishable from zero. For a 30-year “climate normal” reference period of WY 1981-2010 (a period assumed to be representative of current climatic conditions), we estimate the total sediment supply would be 2.0 Mt/yr of which 70% would come from small tributaries. The delivery points are Mallard Island for sediment from the Delta and the head of tide of each small tributary or outfall for sediment from the small tributaries. The finding that, on average, small tributaries have supplied more sediment to the Bay than the Delta is important but not new (McKee et al., 2013). During the Gold Rush and perhaps through to the 1980s, 80% or more of the supply was estimated to be from the Central Valley (Porterfield, 1980). But land and water management have continued to evolve (Krone, 1996) and the sediment wave associated with the Gold Rush has diminished (Schoellhamer, 2011). In addition, the coastal mountains of California and around the Bay are steep, tectonically active and composed of relatively erodible marine sedimentary and metasedimentary rocks, in contrast to the Central Valley watershed that is dominated by highly indurated granitic, metasedimentary, and metavolcanic rocks in the western-facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (McKee et al., 2013). Also, water management is quite different between the Central Valley rivers and small tributaries. About 48% of the Central Valley watershed is upstream from dams that are designed to capture, delay and diminish discharge from spring snowmelt and so eliminate or damp many of the peak flows that are normally crucial for sediment transport. Another factor contributing to the importance of small tributaries for sediment supply is the way that they deliver sediment. Annual discharge from small tributaries is very small in comparison to the volume of the Bay (around one-fifth of a Bay volume on average), and the load that small tributaries supply is delivered through hundreds of channels and outfalls via wetland sloughs to the mudflats on the margin of the Bay. Therefore, the majority of this sediment delivered from Bay Area small tributaries is more likely to be trapped in these tidal channels or the margins of the Bay. In contrast, supply from the Central Valley enters the Bay through one large river channel at the head of the estuary (functionally adjacent to Mallard Island, near Pittsburg, CA) with an average annual discharge volume that is more than twi

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USGS2017

Erosion characteristics and horizontal variability for small erosion depths in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA

Erodibility of cohesive sediment in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (Delta) was investigated with an erosion microcosm. Erosion depths in the Delta and in the microcosm were estimated to be about one floc diameter over a range of shear stresses and times comparable to half of a typical tidal cycle. Using the conventional assumption of horizontally homogeneous bed sediment, data from 27 of 34 microcosm experiments indicate that the erosion rate coefficient increased as eroded mass increased, contrary to theory. We believe that small erosion depths, erosion rate coefficient deviation from theory, and visual observation of horizontally varying biota and texture at the sediment surface indicate that erosion cannot solely be a function of depth but must also vary horizontally. We test this hypothesis by developing a simple numerical model that includes horizontal heterogeneity, use it to develop an artificial time series of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in an erosion microcosm, then analyze that time series assuming horizontal homogeneity. A shear vane was used to estimate that the horizontal standard deviation of critical shear stress was about 30% of the mean value at a site in the Delta. The numerical model of the erosion microcosm included a normal distribution of initial critical shear stress, a linear increase in critical shear stress with eroded mass, an exponential decrease of erosion rate coefficient with eroded mass, and a stepped increase in applied shear stress. The maximum SSC for each step increased gradually, thus confounding identification of a single well-defined critical shear stress as encountered with the empirical data. Analysis of the artificial SSC time series with the assumption of a homogeneous bed reproduced the original profile of critical shear stress, but the erosion rate coefficient increased with eroded mass, similar to the empirical data. Thus, the numerical experiment confirms the small-depth erosion hypothesis. A linear model of critical shear stress and eroded mass is proposed to simulate small-depth erosion, assuming that the applied and critical shear stresses quickly reach equilibrium.

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USGS2016

Recent advances in understanding flow dynamics and transport of water-quality constituents in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta

This paper, part of the collection of research comprising the State of Bay–Delta Science 2016, describes advances during the past decade in understanding flow dynamics and how water-quality constituents move within California’s Sacramento– San Joaquin River Delta (Delta). Water-quality constituents include salinity, heat, oxygen, nutrients, contaminants, organic particles, and inorganic particles. These constituents are affected by water diversions and other human manipulations of flow, and they greatly affect the quantity and quality of benthic, pelagic, and intertidal habitat in the Delta. The Pacific Ocean, the Central Valley watershed, human intervention, the atmosphere, and internal biogeochemical processes are all drivers of flow and transport in the Delta. These drivers provide a conceptual framework for presenting recent findings. The tremendous expansion of acoustic and optical instruments deployed in the Delta over the past decade has greatly improved our understanding of how tidal variability affects flow and transport. Sediment is increasingly viewed as a diminishing resource needed to sustain pelagic habitat and tidal marsh, especially as sea level rises. Connections among the watershed, Delta, and San Francisco Bay that have been quantified recently highlight that a landscape view of this system is needed, rather than consideration of each region in isolation. We discuss interactions of multiple drivers and information gaps.

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USGS2016

Primary production in the Delta: Then and now

To evaluate the role of restoration in the recovery of the Delta ecosystem, we need to have clear targets and performance measures that directly assess ecosystem function. Primary production is a crucial ecosystem process, which directly limits the quality and quantity of food available for secondary consumers such as invertebrates and fish. The Delta has a low rate of primary production, but it is unclear whether this was always the case. Recent analyses from the Historical Ecology Team and Delta Landscapes Project provide quantitative comparisons of the areal extent of 14 habitat types in the modern Delta versus the historical Delta (pre-1850). Here we describe an approach for using these metrics of land use change to: (1) produce the first quantitative estimates of how Delta primary production and the relative contributions from five different producer groups have been altered by large-scale drainage and conversion to agriculture; (2) convert these production estimates into a common currency so the contributions of each producer group reflect their food quality and efficiency of transfer to consumers; and (3) use simple models to discover how tidal exchange between marshes and open water influences primary production and its consumption. Application of this approach could inform Delta management in two ways. First, it would provide a quantitative estimate of how large-scale conversion to agriculture has altered the Delta's capacity to produce food for native biota. Second, it would provide restoration practitioners with a new approach—based on ecosystem function—to evaluate the success of restoration projects and gauge the trajectory of ecological recovery in the Delta region.

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USGS2016

Review of suspended sediment in lower South Bay relevant to light attenuation and phytoplankton blooms

Lower South Bay (LSB), a shallow subembayment of San Francisco Bay (SFB), is situated south of the Dumbarton Bridge, and is surrounded by, and interconnected with, a network of sloughs, marshes, and former salt ponds undergoing restoration (Figure ES.1). LSB receives 120 million gallons per day of treated wastewater effluent from three publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) that service San Jose and the densely populated surrounding region. During the dry season, when flows from creeks and streams are at their minimum, POTW effluent comprises the majority of freshwater flow to Lower South Bay. Although LSB has a large tidal prism, it experiences limited net exchange with the surrounding Bay, because much of the water that leaves on ebb tides returns during the subsequent flood tides. The limited exchange leads to distinctly different biogeochemical conditions in LSB compared to other SFB subembayments, including LSB having the highest nutrient concentrations and highest phytoplankton biomass.

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USGS2015

The effect of submerged aquatic vegetation expansion on a declining turbidity trend in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has well-documented effects on water clarity. SAV beds can slow water movement and reduce bed shear stress, promoting sedimentation and reducing suspension. However, estuaries have multiple controls on turbidity that make it difficult to determine the effect of SAV on water clarity. In this study, we investigated the effect of primarily invasive SAV expansion on a concomitant decline in turbidity in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The objective of this study was to separate the effects of decreasing sediment supply from the watershed from increasing SAV cover to determine the effect of SAV on the declining turbidity trend. SAV cover was determined by airborne hyperspectral remote sensing and turbidity data from long-term monitoring records. The turbidity trends were corrected for the declining sediment supply using suspended-sediment concentration data from a station immediately upstream of the Delta. We found a significant negative trend in turbidity from 1975 to 2008, and when we removed the sediment supply signal from the trend it was still significant and negative, indicating that a factor other than sediment supply was responsible for part of the turbidity decline. Turbidity monitoring stations with high rates of SAV expansion had steeper and more significant turbidity trends than those with low SAV cover. Our findings suggest that SAV is an important (but not sole) factor in the turbidity decline, and we estimate that 21–70 % of the total declining turbidity trend is due to SAV expansion.

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USGS2015

Suspended-sediment dynamics in the tidal reach of a San Francisco Bay tributary

To better understand suspended-sediment transport in a tidal slough adjacent to a large wetland restoration project, we deployed continuously measuring temperature, salinity, depth, turbidity, and velocity sensors in 2010 at a near-bottom location in Alviso Slough (Alviso, California, USA). Alviso Slough is the downstream reach of the Guadalupe River and flows into the far southern end of San Francisco Bay. River flow is influenced by the Mediterranean climate, with high flows (∼90 m 3 s −1 ) correlated to episodic winter storms and low base flow (∼0.85 m 3 s −1 ) during the summer. Storms and associated runoff have a large influence on sediment flux for brief periods, but the annual peak sediment concentrations in the slough, which occur in April and May, are similar to the rest of this part of the bay and are not directly related to peak discharge events. Strong spring tides promote a large upstream sediment flux as a front associated with the passage of a salt wedge during flood tide. Neap tides do not have flood-directed fronts, but a front seen sometimes during ebb tide appears to be associated with the breakdown of stratification in the slough. During neap tides, stratification likely suppresses sediment transport during weaker flood and ebb tides. The slough is flood dominant during spring tides, and ebb dominant during neap tides. Extreme events in landward (salt wedge) and bayward (rainfall events) suspended-sediment flux account for 5.0 % of the total sediment flux in the slough and only 0.55 % of the samples. The remaining 95 % of the total sediment flux is due to tidal transport, with an imbalance in the daily tidal transport producing net landward flux. Overall, net sediment transport during this study was landward indicating that sediment in the sloughs may not be flushed to the bay and are available for sedimentation in the adjacent marshes and ponds.

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USGS2015

Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios

In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento&ndash;San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta&mdash;where SLR may be attenuated&mdash;and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future rates of aboveground and belowground plant productivity under increased CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations and flooding.

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USGS2015

Estimation of historic flows and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay,1849–2011

River flow and sediment transport in estuaries influence morphological development over decadal and century time scales, but hydrological and sedimentological records are typically too short to adequately characterize long-term trends. In this study, we recover archival records and apply a rating curve approach to develop the first instrumental estimates of daily delta inflow and sediment loads to San Francisco Bay (1849–1929). The total sediment load is constrained using sedimentation/erosion estimated from bathymetric survey data to produce continuous daily sediment transport estimates from 1849 to 1955, the time period prior to sediment load measurements. We estimate that ∼55% (45–75%) of the ∼1500 ± 400 million tons (Mt) of sediment delivered to the estuary between 1849 and 2011 was the result of anthropogenic alteration in the watershed that increased sediment supply. Also, the seasonal timing of sediment flux events has shifted because significant spring-melt floods have decreased, causing estimated springtime transport (April 1st to June 30th) to decrease from ∼25% to ∼15% of the annual total. By contrast, wintertime sediment loads (December 1st to March 31st) have increased from ∼70% to ∼80%. A ∼35% reduction of annual flow since the 19th century along with decreased sediment supply has resulted in a ∼50% reduction in annual sediment delivery. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other systems for which unanalyzed historic data exist.

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USGS2015

Suspended-sediment dynamics in the tidal reach of a San Francisco Bay tributary

To better understand suspended-sediment transport in a tidal slough adjacent to a large wetland restoration project, we deployed continuously-measuring temperature, salinity, depth, turbidity, and velocity sensors since 2010, and added a dissolved-oxygen sensor in 2012, at a near-bottom location in Alviso Slough (Alviso, California USA). Alviso Slough is the downstream reach of the Guadalupe River and flows into the far southern end of San Francisco Bay. River flow is influenced by the Mediterranean climate, with high flows correlated to episodic winter storms (~85 m3 s-1) and low base flow during the summer (~0.85 m3 s-1). Storms and associated runoff have the greatest influence on sediment flux. Strong spring tides promote upstream sediment flux and weak neap tides have only a small net flux. During neap tides, stratification likely suppresses sediment transport during weaker flood and ebb tides.

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USGS2014

Continuous water-quality and suspended-sediment transport monitoring in the San Francisco Bay, California, water years 2011–13

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors water quality and suspended-sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay. The San Francisco Bay area is home to millions of people, and the bay teems with both resident and migratory wildlife, plants, and fish. Fresh water mixes with salt water in the bay, which is subject both to riverine and marine (tides, waves, influx of salt water) influences. To understand this environment, the USGS, along with its partners, has been monitoring the bay’s waters continuously since 1988. Several water-quality variables are of particular importance to State and Federal resource managers and are monitored at key locations throughout the bay. Salinity, which indicates the relative mixing of fresh and ocean waters in the bay, is derived from specific conductance measurements. Water temperature, along with salinity, affects the density of water, which causes gravity driven circulation patterns and stratification in the water column. Turbidity is measured using light-scattering from suspended solids in water, and is used as a surrogate for suspended-sediment concentration (SSC). Suspended sediment often carries adsorbed contaminants; attenuates sunlight in the water column; deposits on tidal marsh and intertidal mudflats, which can help sustain these habitats as sea level rises; and deposits in ports and shipping channels, which can necessitate dredging. Dissolved oxygen, which is essential to a healthy ecosystem, is a fundamental indicator of water quality, and its concentration is affected by water temperature, salinity, ecosystem metabolism, tidal currents, and wind. Tidal currents in the bay reverse four times a day, and wind direction and intensity typically change on a daily cycle: consequently, salinity, water temperature, suspendedsediment concentration, and dissolvedoxygen concentration vary spatially and temporally throughout the bay, and continuous measurements are needed to observe these changes. The purpose of this fact sheet is to inform the public and resource managers of the availability of these water-quality data.

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USGS2013

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

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USGS2013

Implications for future survival of delta smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus , which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

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USGS2013

Comparison of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from watersheds draining the Bay Area and the Central Valley of California

Quantifying suspended sediment loads is important for managing the world's estuaries in the context of navigation, pollutant transport, wetland restoration, and coastal erosion. To address these needs, a comprehensive analysis was completed on sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from fluvial sources. Suspended sediment, optical backscatter, velocity data near the head of the estuary, and discharge data obtained from the output of a water balance model were used to generate continuous suspended sediment concentration records and compute loads to the Bay from the large Central Valley watershed. Sediment loads from small tributary watersheds around the Bay were determined using 235 station-years of suspended sediment data from 38 watershed locations, regression analysis, and simple modeling. Over 16 years, net annual suspended sediment load to the head of the estuary from its 154,000 km 2 Central Valley watershed varied from 0.13 to 2.58 (mean = 0.89) million metric t of suspended sediment, or an average yield of 11 metric t/km 2 /yr. Small tributaries, totaling 8145 km 2 , in the nine-county Bay Area discharged between 0.081 and 4.27 (mean = 1.39) million metric t with a mean yield of 212 metric t/km 2 /yr. The results indicate that the hundreds of urbanized and tectonically active tributaries adjacent to the Bay, which together account for just 5% of the total watershed area draining to the Bay and provide just 7% of the annual average fluvial flow, supply 61% of the suspended sediment. The small tributary loads are more variable (53-fold between years compared to 21-fold for the inland Central Valley rivers) and dominated fluvial sediment supply to the Bay during 10 out of 16 yr. If San Francisco Bay is typical of other estuaries in active tectonic or climatically variable coastal regimes, managers responsible for water quality, dredging and reusing sediment accumulating in shipping channels, or restoring wetlands in the world's estuaries may need to more carefully account for proximal small urbanized watersheds that may dominate sediment supply.

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