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David H. Peterson

Publications and source records attributed to David H. Peterson.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

The influence of north Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the west

The annual cycle and nonseasonal variability of streamflow over western North America and Hawaii is studied in terms of atmospheric forcing elements. This study uses several decades of monthly average streamflow beginning as early as the late 1800's over a network of 38 stations. In addition to a strong annual cycle in mean streamflow and its variance at most of the stations, there is also a distinct annual cycle in the autocorrelation of anomalies that is related to the interplay between the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation. Of particular importance to these lag effects is the well-known role of water stored as snow pack, which controls the delay between peak precipitation and peak flow and also introduces persistence into the nonseasonal streamflow anomalies, with time scales from 1 month to over 1 year. The degree to which streamflow is related to winter atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific and western North America is tested using correlations with time averaged, gridded sea level pressure (SLP), which begins in 1899. Streamflow fluctuations show significant large-scale correlations for the winter (December through February) mean SLP anomaly patterns over the North Pacific with maximum correlations ranging from 0.3 to about 0.6. For streams along the west coast corridor the circulation pattern associated with positive streamflow anomalies is low pressure centered off the coast to the west or northwest, indicative of increased winter storms and an anomalous westerly-to-southwesterly wind component. For streams in the interior positive streamflow anomalies are associated with a positive SLP anomaly stationed remotely over the central North Pacific, and with negative but generally weaker SLP anomalies locally. One important influence on streamflow variability is the strength of the Aleutian Low in winter. This is represented by the familiar Pacific-North America (PNA) index and also by an index defined herein the “CNP” (Central North Pacific). This index, beginning in 1899, is taken to be the average of the SLP anomaly south of the Aleutians and the western Gulf of Alaska. Correlations between PNA or CNP and regional anomalies reflect streamflow the alternations in strength and position of the mean North Pacific storm track entering North America as well as shifts in the trade winds over the subtropical North Pacific. Regions whose streamflow is best tuned to the PNA or CNP include coastal Alaska, the northwestern United States, and Hawaii; the latter two regions have the opposite sign anomaly as the former. The pattern of streamflow variations associated with El Niño is similar, but the El Niño signal also includes a tendency for greater than normal streamflow in the southwestern United States. These indices are significantly correlated with streamflow at one to two seasons in advance of the December–August period, which may allow modestly skillful forecasts. It is important to note that streamflow variability in some areas, such as British Columbia and California, does not respond consistently to these broad scale Pacific atmospheric circulation indices, but is related to regional atmospheric anomaly features over the eastern North Pacific. Spatially, streamflow anomalies are fairly well correlated over scales of several hundred kilometers. Inspection of the spatial anomalies of stream-flow in this study suggest an asymmetry in the spatial pattern of positive versus negative streamflow anomalies in the western United States: dry patterns have tended to be larger and more spatially coherent than wet patterns.

Pacific Ocean

Spring climate and salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary

Salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary almost always experiences its yearly maximum during late summer, but climate variability produces marked interannual variations. The atmospheric circulation pattern impacts the estuary primarily through variations of runoff from rainfall and snowmelt from the Sierra Nevada and, secondarily, through variations in the near-surface salinity in the coastal ocean. While winter precipitation is the primary influence upon salinity in the estuary, spring climate variations also contribute importantly to salinity fluctuations. Spring atmospheric circulation influences both the magnitude and the timing of freshwater flows, through anomalies of precipitation and temperature. To help discriminate between the effects of these two influences, the record is divided into subsets according to whether spring conditions in the region are cool and wet, warm and wet, cool and dry, or warm and dry. Warm springs promote early snowmelt-driven flows, and cool springs result in delayed flows. In addition to effects of winter and spring climate variability operating on the watershed, there are more subtle effects that are transmitted into the estuary from the coastal ocean. These influences are most pronounced in cool and dry springs with high surface salinity (SS) in the coastal ocean versus cool and wet springs with low SS in the coastal ocean. A transect of SS records at stations from the mouth to the head of the bay suggests that the coastal ocean anomaly signal is attenuated from the mouth to the interior of the estuary. In contrast, a delayed, postsummer signal caused by winter and spring runoff variations from the upstream watershed are most pronounced at the head of the estuary and attenuate toward the mouth.

California

Principal hydrologic responses to climatic and geologic variability in the Sierra Nevada, California

Sierra Nevada snowpack is a critical water source for California’s growing population and agricultural industry. However, because mountain winters and springs are warming, on average, precipitation as snowfall relative to rain is decreasing, and snowmelt is earlier. The changes are stronger at mid-elevations than at higher elevations. The result is that the water supply provided by snowpack is diminishing. In this paper, we describe principal hydrologic responses to climatic and spatial geologic variations as gleaned from a series of observations including snowpack, stream-flow, and bedrock geology. Our analysis focused on peak (maximum) and base (minimum) daily discharge of the annual snowmelt-driven hydrographs from 18 Sierra Nevada watersheds and 24 stream gage locations using standard correlation methods. Insights into the importance of the relative magnitudes of peak flow and soil water storage led us to develop a hydrologic classification of mountain watersheds based on runoff versus base flow as a percentage of peak flow. Our findings suggest that watersheds with a stronger base flow response store more soil water than watersheds with a stronger peak-flow response. Further, the influence of antecedent wet or dry years is greater in watersheds with high base flow, measured as a percentage of peak flow. The strong correlation between 1) the magnitude of peak flow, and 2) snow water equivalent can be used to predict peak flow weeks in advance. A weaker but similar correlation can be used to predict the magnitude of base flow months in advance. Most of the watersheds show a trend that peak flow is occurring earlier in the year.

California

Comments on “ Changes in the onset of dpring in the western United States ” reply

We thank Dr. Lilly for his comment (Lilly 2001) concerning the possibility that the trend toward early lilac and honeysuckle bloom that we noted in our recent (Cayan et al. 2001) study may have been caused by urbanization. For some individual lilac or honeysuckle bushes, it is very possible that such an urban influence could be operating. Unfortunately, because the phenological network has vanished after it was retired in 1994, it is virtually impossible to examine this directly from site inspections. However, the circumstantial evidence that this trend is a symptom of regional and larger-scale climate fluctuations or changes, not from local urban effects, is quite strong, as explained below.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Seasonal/yearly salinity variations in San Francisco Bay

The ability of resource agencies to manage fish, wildlife and freshwater supplies of San Francisco Bay estuary requires an integrated knowledge of the relations between the biota and their physical environment. A key factor in these relations is the role of salinity in determining both the physical and the biological character of the estuary. The saltiness of the water, and particularly its seasonal and interannual patterns of variability, affects which aquatic species live where within the estuary. Salinity also determines where water can and cannot be diverted for human consumption and irrigated agriculture, and plays a role in determining the capacity of the estuary to cleanse itself of wastes. In short, salinity is a fundamental property of estuarine physics and chemistry that, in turn, determines the biological characteristics of each estuary. Freshwater is a major control on estuarine salinity. Most freshwater supplied to the Bay is from river flow through the Delta, which is primarily runoff from the Sierra Nevada. Most contaminants in San Francisco Bay are from the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley and the local watershed around the Bay rather than the sea or atmosphere. Land is the primary source of freshwater and freshwater serves as a tracer of land-derived substances such as the trace metals (copper, lead and selenium), pesticides and plant nutrients (nitrate and phosphate). The U.S. Geological Survey is collaborating with other agencies and institutions in studying San Francisco Bay salinity using field observations and numerical simulations to define the physical processes that control salinity. The issues that arise from salinity fluctuations, however, differ in the northern and southern parts of the bay. In North Bay we need to know how salinity responds to freshwater flow through the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta; this knowledge will benefit water managers who determine how much delta flow is needed a) to protect freshwater supplies for municipal water use and b) modulate salinity for a healthy estuary. In South Bay we need to know where the freshwater comes from (the distant Delta or local streams) to sort out the sources of a) contamination or b) dilution.

California

Riverine C, N, Si and P transport to the coastal ocean: An overview

Terrestrial ecosystems cycle and recyle inorganic nutrients including a feedback to atmospheric dry deposition and precipitation (cf. Lewis et al., 1985). Each year, however, a small fraction per unit area of the atmosphere/plant/soil flux leaks from these land-based cycles via precipitation/runoff (Meybeck, 1982). These losses are, in general, unpreventable. Moreover, such nutrient “losses” have increased with increasing human population (Wollast, 1983); although to some extent this anthropogenic component can be controlled. Most rivers eventually flow into estuaries and the coastal ocean where their natural and anthropogenic nutrient loads continue to recycle, are lost to the atmosphere, or are buried in sediment. In one extreme, when riverine nutrient concentrations are exceedingly low, as in southwestern Canadian streams (Naiman and Sibert, 1978; Stockner and Shortreed, 1978, 1985), downstream plant biomass can be nutrient limited. In the other extreme, when these nutrient concentrations are very high such as in highly populated European river basins, downstream plant biomass can increase, perhaps intensifying natural anoxia cycles within the receiving estuarine/coastal ocean waters if these waters are stratified (Rosenberg, 1985).

Book chapter

Interannual variability in biochemistry of partially mixed estuaries: Dissolved silicate cycles in northern San Francisco Bay

Much of the interannual variability in partially mixed estuaries in dissolved inorganic nutrient and dissolved oxygen patterns results from an enhancement or reduction of their annual cycle (generally via climatic forcing). In northern San Francisco Bay estuary the annual cycle of dissolved silicate supply peaks in spring and the effect of phytoplankton removal peaks in fall. Because riverine silicate sources are enhanced in wet years and reduced in dry years, the annual silicate cycle is modified accordingly. Effects of phytoplankton removal are reduced and delayed in wet years and enhanced and advanced (seen earlier) in dry years. Similar reasoning can apply to interpreting and understanding other mechanisms and rates.

Book chapter

Response of northern San Francisco Bay to riverine inputs of dissolved inorganic carbon, silicon, nitrogen and phosphorus

Estuarine processes can be effective in modifying (filtering) distributions of dissolved inorganic forms of carbon (DIC), silicon (DIS), nitrogen (DIN), and phosphorus (DIP) in northern San Francisco Bay. During winter, high inflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system supplied these nutrients to the estuary at rates that exceeded potential rates of estuarine supply and removal processes. During spring and summer, when inflow rates were lower, the estuary was an effective “filter” of the river inflow “signal” because rates of estuarine processes were high relative to river and other supply rates. At lower inflow rates, the river apparently influenced estuarine hydrodynamic features that controlled rates of phytoplankton nutrient removal. Largest biological removal effects were localized in San Pablo Bay during spring and Suisun Bay during summer, and they were generally more pronounced in shallow water areas of the bays. In San Pablo Bay, effects of biological removal appeared soon after river inflow decreased from high winter rates, but persisted for only a short time. During the following summer months, DIN and DIP distributions in San Pablo Bay indicated that estuarine sources contributed to higher concentrations of these nutrients.

California

Numerical simulation of dissolved silica in the San Fancisco Bay

A two-dimensional (vertical) steady-state numerical model that simulates water circulation and dissolved-silica distributions is applied to northern San Francisco Bay. The model (1) describes the strong influence of river inflow on estuarine circulation and, in turn, on the biologically modulated silica concentration, and (2) shows how rates of silica uptake relate to silica supply and mixing rates in modifying a conservative behavior. Longitudinal silica distributions influenced by biological uptake (assuming both vertically uniform and vertically decreasing uptake situations) show that uptake rates of 1 to 10 μg-at. l −1 day −1 are sufficient to depress silica concentrations at river inflows of 100–400 m 3 s −1 , respectively, and that the higher rates appear ineffective at inflows above 400 m 3 s −1 . The simulations further indicate that higher silica utilization in the null zone is not essential to depress silica concentrations strongly there. Advective water-replacement times at river inflows of 400, 200 and 100 m 3 s −1 are computed to be less than 25, 45 and 75 days, respectively, for a 120-km estuary-river system.

California

Location of the non-tidal current null zone in northern San Francisco Bay

Variations in Sacramento-San Joaquin River discharge into northern San Francisco Bay causes shifts in location of the bottom density current null zone. At a river flow of 2000 m 3 /s this null zone is approximately 20 km from the seaward end of the estuary, whereas at a river flow of 100 m 3 /s it is 80 km from the seaward end; the corresponding distances of salinity penetration are approximately 40 and 90 km from the seaward end. Seaward of the null zone, during low (summer) river discharge conditions, the inward-flowing bottom density current appears typically strong (5–15 cm/s) relative to the outward-flowing river current (river discharge per unit cross-channel area) of <2 cm/s. Landward from this null zone the average river current increases with decreasing cross-channel area. This circulation implies that during the summer water within the null zone has the longest average advective replacement time relative to water seaward or landward of the null zone.

California