Geology topics

David Gustine

Publications and source records attributed to David Gustine.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Identifying presence or absence of grizzly and polar bear cubs from the movements of adult females with machine learning

Background Information on reproductive success is crucial to understanding population dynamics but can be difficult to obtain, particularly for species that birth while denning. For grizzly ( Ursus arctos ) and polar bears ( U. maritimus ), den visits are impractical because of safety and logistical considerations. Reproduction is typically documented through direct observation, which can be difficult, costly, and often occurs long after den departure. Reproduction could be documented remotely, however, from post-denning movement data if discernable differences exist between females with and without cubs. Methods We trained support vector machines (SVMs) with eight variables derived from telemetry data of female grizzly (2000–2022) and polar bears (1985–2016) with or without cubs during seven periods with lengths ranging from 5 to 60 days starting at den departure. We assessed SVM classification accuracy by withholding two samples (one cub-present, one cub-absent), training SVMs with the remaining data, predicting classification of the withheld samples, and repeating this process for each sample combination. Additionally, we evaluated how classification accuracy for grizzly bears was influenced by sample size, length of the post-departure period, and frequency of standardized location estimates. Results Accuracy of predicting cub presence or absence was 87% for grizzly bears with only 5 days of post-departure data and increased to a maximum of 92% with 20 days of data. For polar bears, accuracy was 86% at 5 days post-departure and increased to a maximum of 93% at 50 days. Classification accuracy for grizzly bears increased from 76 to 90% when sample size increased from 10 to 30 bears while holding period length constant (30 days) but did not increase at larger sample sizes. When sample size was held constant, increasing the length of the post-departure period did not affect classification accuracy markedly. Conclusion Presence or absence of grizzly and polar bear cubs can be identified with high accuracy even when SVM models are trained with limited data. Detecting cub presence or absence remotely could improve estimates of reproductive success and litter survival, enhancing our understanding of factors affecting cub recruitment.

Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2024

The post-emergence period for denning polar bears: Phenology and influence on cub survival

Among polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), only parturient females den for extended periods, emerging from maternal dens in spring after having substantially depleted their energy reserves during a fast that can exceed 8 months. Although den emergence coincides with a period of increasing prey availability, polar bears typically do not depart immediately to hunt, but instead remain at the den for up to a month. This delay suggests that there are likely adaptive advantages to remaining at the den between emergence and departure, but the influence of the timing and duration of this post-emergence period on cub survival has not been evaluated previously. We used temperature and location data from 70 denning bears collared within the Southern Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea subpopulations to estimate the phenology of the post-emergence period. We evaluated the influence of various spatial and temporal features on duration of the post-emergence period and evaluated the potential influence of post-emergence duration on litter survival early in the spring following denning. For dens that likely contained viable cubs at emergence ( n = 56), mean den emergence occurred on 16 March (SE = 1.4 days) and mean departure on 24 March (SE = 1.6 days), with dates typically occurring later in the Chukchi Sea relative to Southern Beaufort Sea and on land relative to sea ice. Mean duration of the post-emergence period was 7.9 days (SE = 1.4) for bears that were observed with cubs later in the spring, which was over 4 times longer than duration of those observed without cubs (1.9 days). Litter survival in the spring following denning ( n = 31 dens) increased from 0.5 to 0.9 when duration of the post-emergence period increased by ~4 days and other variables were held at mean values. Our limited sample size and inability to verify cub presence at emergence suggests that future research is merited to improve our understanding of this relationship. Nonetheless, our results highlight the importance of the post-emergence period in contributing to reproductive success and can assist managers in developing conservation and mitigation strategies in denning areas, which will be increasingly important as human activities expand in the Arctic.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2023

Giardia and Cryptosporidium in resident wildlife species in Arctic Alaska

Giardia and Cryptosporidium are zoonotic protozoan parasites that can infect humans and other taxa, including wildlife, often causing gastrointestinal illness. Both have been identified as One Health priorities in the Arctic, where climate change is expected to influence the distribution of many wildlife and zoonotic diseases, but little is known about their prevalence in local wildlife. To help fill information gaps, we collected fecal samples from four wildlife species that occur seasonally on the northern Alaska coastline or in nearshore marine waters—Arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ), polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ), Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus )—and used immunofluorescence assays to screen for Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts. We detected Giardia cysts in 18.3% and Cryptosporidium oocysts in 16.5% of Arctic foxes ( n = 109), suggesting that foxes may be potentially important hosts in this region. We also detected Giardia cysts in a single polar bear (12.5%; n = 8), which to our knowledge represents the first such report for this species. Neither parasite was detected in walruses or caribou.

Food and Waterborne Parasitology↗

USGS2021

Dynamic selection for forage quality and quantity in response to phenology and insects in an Arctic ungulate

Spatiotemporal variation in forage is a primary driver of ungulate behavior, yet little is known about the nutritional components they select, and how selection varies across the growing season with changes in forage quality and quantity. We addressed these uncertainties in barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), which experience their most important foraging opportunities during the short Arctic summer. Recent declines in Arctic caribou populations have raised concerns about the influence of climate change on summer foraging opportunities, given shifting vegetation conditions and insect harassment, and their potential effects on caribou body condition and demography. We examined Arctic caribou selection of summer forage by pairing locations from females in the Central Arctic Herd of Alaska with spatiotemporal predictions of biomass, digestible nitrogen (DN), and digestible energy (DE). We then assessed selection for these nutritional components across the growing season at landscape and patch scales, and determined whether foraging opportunities were constrained by insect harassment. During early summer, at the landscape scale, caribou selected for intermediate biomass and high DN and DE, following expectations of the forage maturation hypothesis. At the patch scale, however, caribou selected for high values of all forage components, particularly DN, suggesting that protein may be limiting. During late summer, after DN declined below the threshold for protein gain, caribou exhibited a switch at both spatial scales, selecting for higher biomass, likely enabling mass and fat deposition. Mosquito activity strongly altered caribou selection of forage and increased their movement rates, while oestrid fly activity had little influence. Our results demonstrate that early and late summer periods afford Arctic caribou distinct foraging opportunities, as they prioritize quality earlier in the summer and quantity later. Climate change may further constrain caribou access to DN as earlier, warmer Arctic summers may be associated with reduced DN and increased mosquito harassment.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Caribou use of habitat near energy development in Arctic Alaska

Increasing demands for energy have generated interest in expanding oil and gas production on the North Slope of Alaska, raising questions about the resilience of barren-ground caribou populations to new development. Although the amount of habitat lost directly to energy development in the Arctic will likely be relatively small, there are significant concerns about habitat that may be indirectly impacted due to caribou avoidance behaviors. Behavioral responses to energy development for wildlife have been well-documented, but such responses are often assumed to dissipate over time, despite scant information on the ability of animals to habituate. To understand the long-term effects of energy development on barren-ground caribou we investigated the behavior of the Central Arctic Herd in northern Alaska, which has been exposed to oil development on its summer range for approximately 40 years. Using recent (2015-2017) location data from GPS collared females, we conducted a zone of influence analysis to assess whether caribou reduced their use of habitat near energy development, and if so, the distance the effects attenuated. We conducted this analysis for the calving, post-calving and mosquito harassment periods when caribou exhibit distinct resource selection patterns, and contrasted our results to past research that investigated the responses of the Central Arctic Caribou Herd immediately following the construction of the oil fields. Despite the long-term presence of energy development within the Central Arctic Herd summer range, we found that female caribou exhibited avoidance responses to infrastructure during all time periods, although the effects waned across the summer. Caribou reduced their use of habitat within 5 km of development during the calving period, within 2 km during the post-calving period, and within 1 km during the mosquito harassment period, areas which were predicted to overlap 12%, 15% and 17% of important calving, post-calving, and mosquito habitat areas, respectively. During the calving period, the indirect effects we observed were similar to those observed in past research, whereas during the post-calving and mosquito periods, we detected avoidance responses which had not been previously reported. These findings corroborate a growing body of evidence suggesting that habituation to industrial development in Arctic caribou is likely to be weak or absent, and emphasizes the value of minimizing the footprint of infrastructure within important seasonal habitat areas to reduce behavioral impacts to barren-ground caribou.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

The influence of body size, condition, and age on recruitment of four Alaskan brown bear populations

Recruitment of brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) offspring into a population is the product of initial cub production and subsequent survival and is a critical component of overall population status and trend. We investigated the relationship between maternal body size, body condition, and age (as a surrogate for gained experience) and recruitment of dependent offspring (≥1 yr old) in 4 Alaska, USA (2014–2017), brown bear populations using logistic regression. Body size alone was our top predictor of the presence of offspring and appeared in all top models. Our data suggest that bear size is the primary driver of productivity across all 4 study populations, with larger bears having a greater chance of being observed with offspring. The effect of body condition was likely confounded by the increased energetic costs of supporting cubs through time and had a negative relationship with recruitment. Age (experience) was positively related to recruitment. Understanding the relative importance of body size, body condition, and age on the recruitment of offspring provides insights into life-history trade-offs female bears must manage as they strive to meet the nutritional costs of cub production and rearing, while minimizing risks to themselves and their offspring. Further assessment of long-term longitudinal studies of brown bears that assess the lifetime reproductive output of individuals would be highly informative to further assess the effect of experience on recruitment and to support the management of brown bear populations for recovery, conservation, sustained yield, and ecosystem function.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Body size and lean mass of brown bears across and within four diverse ecosystems

Variation in body size across populations of brown bears (Ursus arctos) is largely a function of the availability and quality of nutritional resources while plasticity within populations reflects utilized niche width with implications for population resiliency. We assessed skull size, body length, and lean mass of adult female and male brown bears in four Alaskan study areas that differed in climate, primary food resources, population density, and harvest regime. Full body-frame size, as evidenced by asymptotic skull size and body length, was achieved by 8 to 14 years of age across populations and sexes. Lean body mass of both sexes continued to increase throughout their life. Differences between populations existed for all morphological measures in both sexes, bears in ecosystems with abundant salmon were generally larger. Within all populations, broad variation was seen in body size measures of adults with females displaying roughly a 2-fold difference in lean mass and males showing a 3- to 4-fold difference. The high level of intraspecific variation seen across and within populations suggests the presence of multiple life-history strategies and niche variation relative to resource partitioning, risk tolerance or aversion, and competition. Further, this level of variation indicates broad potential to adapt to changes within a given ecosystem and across the species’ range.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Plasticity in physiological condition of female brown bears across diverse ecosystems

Variation in life history strategies facilitates the near global distribution of mammals by expanding realized niche width. We investigated physiological plasticity in the spring body composition of adult female brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) across 4 diverse Alaskan ecosystems. Brown bears are a highly intelligent omnivore with a historic range spanning much of North America, Europe, and Asia. We hypothesized that body mass, fat mass, lean mass, and total caloric content would increase across populations with increasing food resource availability. Throughout their range, brown bears enter a period of torpor during winter months, decreasing their metabolic rate as an adaptation to this period of reduced food availability. They also give birth to and nourish offspring during this time. Due to this specific life history strategy, we further hypothesized that proportional body fat and the proportion of total calories derived from fat would be consistent across populations. Our results supported our first hypothesis: body, fat, and lean masses, and caloric content of bears across populations increased with the quality and abundance of available food. However, the proportional body fat content and proportion of calories from fat differed across populations indicating population-specific strategies to meet the demands of reduced seasonal food availability, offspring production and rearing, and climate as well as some plasticity to respond to environmental change or ecosystem perturbations. Investigations of body condition and energetics benefit from combined assessments of absolute, proportional, and caloric metrics to understand the nuances of brown bear physiological dynamics across and within populations.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Influences of landscape heterogeneity on home-range sizes of brown bears

Animal space use is influenced by many factors and can affect individual survival and fitness. Under optimal foraging theory, individuals use landscapes to optimize high-quality resources while minimizing the amount of energy used to acquire them. The spatial resource variability hypothesis states that as patchiness of resources increases, individuals use larger areas to obtain the resources necessary to meet energetic requirements. Additionally, under the temporal resource variability hypothesis, seasonal variation in available resources can reduce distances moved while providing a variety of food sources. Our objective was to determine if seasonal home ranges of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) were influenced by temporal availability and spatial distribution of resources and whether individual reproductive status, sex, or size (i.e., body mass) mediated space use. To test our hypotheses, we radio collared brown bears ( n = 32 [9 male, 23 female]) in 2014–2016 and used 18 a priori selected linear models to evaluate seasonal utilization distributions (UD) in relation to our hypotheses. Our top-ranked model by AIC c , supported the spatial resource variability hypothesis and included percentage of like adjacency (PLADJ) of all cover types (P < 0.01), reproductive class (P > 0.17 for males, solitary females, and females with dependent young), and body mass (kg; P = 0.66). Based on this model, for every percentage increase in PLADJ, UD area was predicted to increase 1.16 times for all sex and reproductive classes. Our results suggest that landscape heterogeneity influences brown bear space use; however, we found that bears used larger areas when landscape homogeneity increased, presumably to gain a diversity of food resources. Our results did not support the temporal resource variability hypothesis, suggesting that the spatial distribution of food was more important than seasonal availability in relation to brown bear home range size.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Sex-specific variation in denning by brown bears

Denning characteristics of brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) have been described in numerous studies; however, population specific factors (i.e., landscape characteristics and climate) can greatly influence the location and timing of denning. Our objective was to evaluate den-site characteristics and denning chronology for male and female brown bears in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska. We used maximum entropy modeling to characterize attributes of den sites and generalized linear mixed models to compare denning chronology between males and females. We located 70 den sites (19 male and 51 female) and documented den entrance ( n = 61 [15 male and 46 female]) and emergence ( n = 60 [13 male and 47 female]) dates for bears from fall 2014 to spring 2017. The best performing model for estimating probable male den-site use (AUC = 0.862) was most influenced by slope (79.5%). The most parsimonious female model (AUC = 0.910) included elevation (49.3%), slope (43.1%), and aspect (7.6%). Female brown bears on average denned at higher elevations (868, SE = 190 m) than males (762, SE = 195 m) ( F 1,73 = 4.08, P = 0.047). Additionally, female bears entered dens 8 days earlier than males (SE = 12.82; 20 and 28 October, respectively, P = 0.04), and although not significant ( P = 0.09), average female den emergence dates were 7 days (SE = 15.14) later than males. With the potential for increased human activities (i.e. resource extraction and associated access), gaining an understanding of population specific denning requirements is essential for developing future management actions. Our results provide valuable information that will allow decision makers to structure future development in a way that avoids habitats important for denning, and allows for reduced disturbance of winter den sites.

Alaska↗