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David C. Lindquist

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Lindquist.

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Advancing the implementation of coastal restoration in Louisiana through a co-production of science framework

Coastal Louisiana faces complex challenges from the compounding effects of coastal land loss and climate change. The State of Louisiana’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and the RESTORE Act Center of Excellence for Louisiana (LA-COE) have adopted a co-production of science framework to help ensure that scientific research funded through the LA-COE supports the research needs of CPRA and the Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP), a large-scale coastal restoration plan that outlines activities needed to restore and protect Louisiana’s coast. In this paper, we describe the co-production of science framework established between the LA-COE, CPRA, and research projects funded by the LA-COE. Through an iterative process, the Louisiana CMP is revised every 6 years with improved model and scientific information. The LA-COE leverages the cyclical nature of the CMP by working with CPRA to identify research needs for each Request for Proposals solicited by the LA-COE. The LA-COE proposal review process is structured to include anonymous CPRA review of projects to promote the production of actionable science, and once funded, multiple mechanisms are in place to support collaboration between researchers and CPRA staff. We highlight these mechanisms and provide examples of four LA-COE-funded projects where co-produced science is being used by CPRA to inform the CMP and its implementation. Finally, we discuss challenges of co-production within the confines of funding requirements and review restrictions, highlighting how the LA-COE continues to adapt to navigate these challenges and enhance the implementation of co-production throughout the research funding lifecycle.

Louisiana

Habitat suitability index model improvement recommendations

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how the model relationships could be improved, and to determine what species should be included in the master plan analyses. This process considered the technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plans. Reviews were then conducted to determine the availability of data and information that could be used to make model improvements. As a result of this effort, a recommended list of relevant species to model is provided, and HSI model improvements are recommended that are categorized by whether the suitability index (SI) relationship to be improved is statistical-based or literature-based. The species recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan analyses are: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. These species were selected because they represent a range of taxonomies, life histories, trophic levels, and habitats, and most are commercially- or recreationally-important in coastal Louisiana. Most of these species were also included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the models used during that effort should be further improved. Seaside sparrow and bald eagle are new for the master plan, and new models should be developed for the analyses. The 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models included a water quality SI that was based on statistical analyses of species catch and environmental data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. As suggested during the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, the modeling approach used to develop the water quality SI was revisited and alternate modeling approaches were explored. Using literature and an evaluation of the general steps of model development, three components for HSI model improvement were identified, including 1) selecting alternative modeling approach(es); 2) detecting and resolving statistical issues; and 3) improving model fit and evaluation. Multiple options for each component were explored, which resulted in a proposed multi-step phased approach for model improvement. This proposed approach entails improving the generalized linear models used for the 2017 water quality SIs and then, if desired, comparing them to alternative model approaches (e.g., generalized additive models) to explore model performance and select the best approach to use for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models. All of the existing master plan HSI models include literature-based SIs, which use information from published studies of species-habitat associations to derive suitability relationships. Similar to previous master plans, these literature-based SIs should be updated and improved for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan using recent literature and new ecological knowledge. Preliminary reviews were conducted and recent information was found that could be used to improve the eastern oyster, crayfish, and potentially brown pelican HSI models; but no appropriate recent literature was located for improvement of the American alligator, gadwall, and mottled duck HSI models. However, it is recommended that the literature reviews and information searches be continued. In addition to the statistical-based water quality SI, the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models also included a structural habitat SI that was based on literature showing high densities of these species in fragmented marsh. The relationship used for this SI, however, did not account for the effects of other estuarine habitats, such as submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important to these species. Therefore, a meta-analysis approach is proposed that would estimate the relative importance of these habitats for each species, and the results of this analysis could be used to calculate a new structural habitat SI for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan.

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Habitat suitability index model improvements

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models were developed for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan to evaluate the potential effects of coastal restoration and protection projects on habitat for key coastal fish, shellfish, and wildlife species. These species included: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. Most of these species were included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the HSI models from that effort were refined and improved following the recommendations described in the technical memorandum: 2023 Coastal Master Plan Habitat Suitability Index Model Improvement Recommendations (Sable et al., 2019). In addition to model improvements, HSI models were created for seaside sparrow and bald eagle, both of which are new species for the master plan analyses. For the HSI models that are primarily literature-based, literature reviews were conducted for recent studies that could be used to improve the suitability index (SI) relationships that compose the models. As a result of this review, modifications were made to the salinity-related SIs of the oyster model including: expanding the time period used for salinity effects to spawning; adjusting the range of suitable annual average salinity to be more representative of Louisiana populations; and making oyster’s minimum salinity tolerance temperature dependent. In addition, a new SI was incorporated in the oyster HSI model that accounts for the effects of sediment deposition on oysters. The crayfish HSI model was improved by adjusting the time periods used for the SIs that describe the hydrology required for the crayfish life cycle, and the soil characteristics SI that was part of the 2017 crayfish model was removed because soil conditions do not appear to be limiting for crayfish burrow construction in coastal Louisiana. The other literature-based HSI models from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, i.e., American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, and brown pelican, were unchanged, with the exception of a small adjustment made to the suitability of forested wetlands for gadwall. Lastly, a literature-based HSI model was created for seaside sparrow that consists of SIs related to vegetated habitat type, marsh vegetation coverage, and marsh elevation. Statistical-based HSI models were developed for brown shrimp (both small and large juvenile stages), white shrimp (small and large juvenile stages), blue crab (juvenile stage), gulf menhaden (juvenile and adult stages), spotted seatrout (juvenile and adult stages), largemouth bass, and bald eagle. The bald eagle HSI model was developed from a bald eagle nest probability of occurrence model that related nest occurrence from survey data with land cover type. The resulting model showed that combinations of forested wetlands, flotant marsh, and open water habitats were most suitable for nesting bald eagles. The 2023 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models were developed using new approaches for the formulation of the water quality and structural habitat SIs that compose the models. For the 2017 models, the water quality SI was derived using only generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to estimate the relationship between salinity, water temperature, and species’ catch. For the 2023 models, however, multiple GLMMs and generalized additive models (GAMMs) were created for each species or life stage. These alternative models were compared and a single model that performed well statistically and was ecologically reasonable was selected for the species’ water quality SI. The structural habitat SI was developed using a meta-analysis of published literature to estimate the relative importance of various estuarine habitats to the fish and shellfish species. The results of this analysis were then used to modify the 2017 structural habitat SI relationship to account for the added habitat value of submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important habitats for juvenile fish and shellfish. Similar to the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab models, the water quality and structural habitat SIs were then combined to create the 2023 HSI models. The 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models were integrated with the Integrated Compartment Model (and are referred to as ICM-HSIs) and tested using environmental output from the 2017 Coastal Master Plan Future Without Action scenario. The tests showed that, in general, the models produced reasonable representations of species’ habitat distribution. Furthermore, the improvements made to the oyster, crayfish, fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models generally yielded more realistic results compared to the 2017 HSI models.

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