Geology topics

David C. Douglas

Publications and source records attributed to David C. Douglas.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2021

Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska’s Beaufort Sea, 2001–2016

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

The spatial-temporal relationship of blue-winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modeling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). AIV are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the specter of epidemics and pandemics in human populations. 2. Because migratory waterfowl behavior varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to the poultry industry and enable poultry producers to better anticipate when and where poultry outbreaks may occur, it is critically important to consider the movement ecology of the waterfowl species transporting and transmitting AIV. 3. We used telemetry for a geographically widespread and common AIV host, blue-winged teal ( Spatula discors ; BWTE), to model reservoir host movement states with respect to backyard and commercial poultry facilities in the United States. Our modeling framework enabled us to estimate wild bird proximity to poultry facilities while concurrently assessing the influence of poultry facilities on BWTE movement state transition. Our primary objective was to estimate the likelihood of duck and poultry overlap by estimating when and where BWTE were geographically closest to poultry. 4. Synthesis and applications . Migratory waterfowl facilitate dispersal of the avian influenza viruses that cause highly contagious poultry disease. Movement analysis of blue-winged teal indicates that spatio-temporal overlap between wild birds and poultry facilities varies by season, the poultry type produced (e.g., turkey, chicken), and if the facility is a commercial or backyard operation. These findings are broadly applicable to disease ecology research and can be applied by poultry producers to improve bio-security, enhance poultry management, and prioritize disease surveillance efforts.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2021

Long-term variation in polar bear body condition and maternal investment relative to a changing environment

In the Arctic, warming air and ocean temperatures have resulted in substantial changes to sea ice, which is primary habitat for polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Reductions in extent, duration, and thickness have altered sea ice dynamics, which influences the ability of polar bears to reliably access marine mammal prey. Because nutritional condition is closely linked to population vital rates, a progressive decline in access to prey or an increase in the energetic cost of accessing prey has the potential to adversely affect polar bear population dynamics. We examined long-term (1983–2015) patterns of spring body condition (indexed using residual body mass) and maternal investment (i.e., litter mass of cubs-of-the-year and yearlings; COY and YRL) of polar bears from Alaska’s southern Beaufort Sea to evaluate potential relationships with regional- and circumpolar-scale sea ice conditions and atmospheric patterns. The length of the summer open-water (OW) season (i.e., the period of time the sea ice is mostly absent from the continental shelf) increased at a rate of 18 days decade -1 over the study period. However, the OW season duration was not a strong determinant of spring residual body mass or litter mass. Residual body mass of independent (i.e., subadults and adults) female bears varied relative to age class, reproductive status, and the strength of the prior winter’s Arctic Oscillation (i.e., a circumpolar-scale mode of climate variability driven by long-term atmospheric patterns). Spring residual mass of independent males varied with age class and variation in wind speed (i.e., regional-scale short-term atmospheric patterns) during the winter of the year preceding capture. Over the study period, mean annual body mass of adult females unaccompanied by COY declined by 4 kg/ decade -1 , while no temporal trends were evident in the mean annual body mass of adult females with COY, adult males, and subadults. Litter mass of COY varied relative to capture date, maternal age class and mass, litter size, and year of capture. Litter mass of YRL varied with capture date, maternal age class and mass, litter size, variation in winter wind speed (the year of and year preceding capture), and the strength of the prior winter’s Arctic Oscillation. Mean annual litter mass of COY decreased at a rate of 2.6 kg decade -1 and declined 0.68 kg for every 10 kg reduction in maternal mass. No trend was evident in the mean annual litter mass of yearlings. These findings suggest a nuanced response of the southern Beaufort Sea polar bears to environmental change, where some demographic groups (e.g., adult males and subadults) are presently more resilient than others to changes in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Evidence for continental-scale dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls

Anthropogenic inputs into the environment may serve as sources of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and alter the ecology and population dynamics of synanthropic wild animals by providing supplemental forage. In this study, we used a combination of phenotypic and genomic approaches to characterize antimicrobial resistant indicator bacteria, animal telemetry to describe host movement patterns, and a novel modeling approach to combine information from these diverse data streams to investigate the acquisition and long-distance dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls. Our results provide evidence that gulls acquire antimicrobial resistant bacteria from anthropogenic sources, which they may subsequently disperse across and between continents via migratory movements. Furthermore, we introduce a flexible modeling framework to estimate the relative dispersal risk of antimicrobial resistant bacteria in western North America and adjacent areas within East Asia, which may be adapted to provide information on the risk of dissemination of other organisms and pathogens maintained by wildlife through space and time.

Article↗

USGS2020

Analyses on subpopulation abundance and annual number of maternal dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

The long-term persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) is threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently providing an opportunity in the Arctic for increased anthropogenic activities including natural resource extraction. Mitigating the risk of those activities, which can adversely affect the population dynamics of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation, is an emerging challenge as polar bears become more reliant on land and come into more frequent contact with humans. The Marine Mammal Protection Act and Endangered Species Act require the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to determine whether industrial activities will have a negligible impact on the SBS subpopulation. Information important to making that determination includes estimates of subpopulation abundance and the number of maternal dens likely to be present in areas where industrial activities occur. We analyzed mark-recapture data collected from SBS polar bears sampled in Alaska during 2001–16 using multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Estimated survival rates were relatively high during 2001–03, lower during 2004–08, then higher during 2009–15 except for 2012. Estimated abundance in the Alaska part of the SBS was consistent with the estimated survival rates, declining from about 1,300 bears in 2003 to 525 bears in 2006 and then remaining generally stable during 2006–15. The point estimate for the Alaska part of the SBS in 2015, the last year in which abundance could be estimated, was 573 bears (95-percent credible interval = 232, 1,140 bears). To estimate the expected number of terrestrial dens likely to be present in a given region in a given year, we used a Bayesian modeling approach based on calculations derived from SBS demographic and denning data. We estimated that the entire SBS subpopulation produced 123 dens per year (median; 95-percent credible interval = 69, 198 dens), 66 (median; 95-percent credible interval = 35, 110 dens) of which were land-based. Most land-based dens were located between the Colville and Canning Rivers (which includes the Prudhoe Bay-Kuparuk industrial footprint), followed by the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Ringed seal (Pusa hispida) seasonal movements, diving, and haul-out behavior in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas (2011–2017)

Continued Arctic warming and sea-ice loss will have important implications for the conservation of ringed seals, a highly ice-dependent species. A better understanding of their spatial ecology will help characterize emerging ecological trends and inform management decisions. We deployed satellite transmitters on ringed seals in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2016 near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska to monitor their movements, diving, and haul-out behavior. We present analyses of tracking and dive data provided by 17 seals that were tracked until at least January of the following year. Seals mostly ranged north of Utqiaġvik in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas during summer before moving into the southern Chukchi and Bering Seas during winter. In all seasons, ringed seals occupied a diversity of habitats and spatial distributions; from near shore and localized, to far offshore and wide-ranging in drifting sea-ice. Continental shelf waters were occupied for >96% of tracking-days, during which repetitive-diving (suggestive of foraging) primarily to the seafloor was the most frequent activity. From mid-summer to early-fall, 12 seals made ~ one-week forays off-shelf to the deep Arctic Basin, most reaching the retreating pack-ice, where they spent most of their time hauled out. Diel activity patterns suggested greater allocation of foraging efforts to midday hours. Haul-out patterns were complementary, occurring mostly at night until April-May when midday hours were preferred. Ringed seals captured in 2011—concurrent with an unusual mortality event (UME) that affected all ice seal species—differed morphologically and behaviorally from seals captured in other years. Speculations about the physiology of molting and its role in energetics, habitat use, and behavior are discussed; along with possible evidence of purported ringed seal ecotypes.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Post-release monitoring of a stranded and rehabilitated short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus) reveals current-assisted travel

A subadult female short-finned pilot whale (Globicephala macrorhynchus), stranded on the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast of Florida in June 2017, was rehabilitated for 38 days and then monitored with a satellite-linked, time-depth recording tag for 32 days after being released off the West Florida Shelf. The individual, “Gale,” appeared to regularly use ocean currents to facilitate a southeastward movement around Florida, and then a northward movement along the continental shelf break to the waters off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Indeed, 57% of her travel along the coast of Florida was at speeds consistent with the surface speed and direction of the Gulf Stream. Overall, current-assisted travel contributed to a 19% increase in distance traveled (4,152 km), and to an average rate of travel (130 km·day-1) that was higher than previously reported for Globicephala spp. Gale’s dive behavior was typical of other short-finned pilot whale observations, with average dive depths (243 ± 136 m, max = 712 m) and durations (7.9 ± 2.2 min, max = 16.0 min) within the range of reported values for Globicephala spp. Gale also occupied habitats known to be used by pilot whales, and her movements and behaviors were consistent with those observed in other short-finned pilot whales in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The information presented here contributes to a better understanding of short-finned pilot whales, and to the assessment of rehabilitation and release protocols.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2020

Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry

Avian inﬂuenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2020

Catalogue of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternal den locations in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and nearby areas, 1910–2018

This report presents data on the approximate locations and methods of discovery of 530 polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) maternal dens observed in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and neighboring areas from 1910 to 2018, and archived partly by the U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, and partly by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine Mammals Management, in Anchorage, Alaska. A description of data collection methods and their associated biases, primary data collection time periods, and estimated position uncertainty are provided. Polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas den on sea ice and land. Standardized very high frequency (VHF) aircraft surveys and satellite radio telemetry data provide a general understanding of where polar bears have denned in this region over the past 3 decades. Den observations made during other research activities and anecdotal reports from other government agencies, coastal residents, and industry personnel also are reported. These data on past polar bear maternal den locations are provided to inform decision making by natural resource agencies and for public use.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Movements and habitat use of loons for assessment of conservation buffer zones in the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

Oil and gas development in the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska, may pose threats to wildlife. Management guidelines within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska dictate buffer zones for coastal wildlife habitat and for breeding and foraging sites of yellow-billed loons (YBLOs; Gavia adamsii), a species of conservation concern. However, few data exist to assess the value of these buffer zones for YBLOs or for sympatrically breeding red-throated loons (RTLOs; G. stellata) and Pacific loons (PALOs; G. pacifica). We evaluated movements of these loons on the Arctic Coastal Plain to understand: 1) seasonal timing; 2) marine habitat use; and 3) spatial characteristics of breeding home ranges. We then used those findings to evaluate current management strategies in the context of loon biology. Compared to RTLOs and PALOs, YBLOs nested on larger lakes, stayed on them longer, had larger home ranges, but less frequently used the marine environment in summer. During autumn, YBLOs and PALOs were located farther from shore than during spring or summer, whereas RTLOs used the marine environment similarly during all three seasons. Management buffers established for YBLO nesting areas corresponded well with nest site space use of all three species, suggesting cross-taxa applicability of current management guidelines for nesting habitat. However, the majority of loon locations on the Arctic Coastal Plain were outside of coastal buffer zones established to protect fish and wildlife habitat within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. These findings can inform assessment of conservation buffer zones to mitigate anthropogenic disturbance to loons in Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

How Is climate change affecting polar bears and giant pandas?

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of climate change and an estimated increase of 3.7 to 4.8 °C is predicted by the year 2100 if emissions continue at current levels. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) provide an interesting comparison study of the impact of climate change on bear species. While polar bears and giant pandas are arguably the most distant of the bear species with regard to life histories and behavior, both are likely to be significantly impacted by the broad-scale changes to their environment that are predicted to result from climate change. Herein, we review the conservation status of both species and their habitats, and present current and predicted evidence of the impacts of a changing climate on polar bear and giant panda survival.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

A red knot as a black swan: How a single bird shows navigational abilities during repeat crossings of the Greenland Icecap

Despite the wealth of studies on seasonal movements of birds between southern nonbreeding locations and High Arctic breeding locations, the key mechanisms of navigation during these migrations remain elusive. A flight along the shortest possible route between pairs of points on a sphere (‘orthodrome’) requires a bird to be able to assess its current location in relation to its migration goal and to make continuous adjustment of heading to reach that goal. Alternatively, birds may navigate along a vector with a fixed orientation (‘loxodrome’) based on magnetic and/or celestial compass mechanisms. Compass navigation is considered especially challenging for summer migrations in Polar regions, as continuous daylight and complexity in the geomagnetic field may complicate the use of both celestial and magnetic compasses here. We examine the possible use of orientation mechanisms during migratory flights across the Greenland Icecap. Using a novel 2 g solar-powered satellite transmitter, we documented the flight paths travelled by a female red knot ( Calidris canutus islandica ) during two northward and two southward migrations. The geometry of the paths suggests that red knots can migrate across the Greenland Icecap along the shortest-, orthodrome-like, path instead of the previously suggested loxodrome path. This particular bird’s ability to return to locations visited in a previous year, together with its sudden course changes (which would be appropriate responses to ambient wind fields), suggest a map sense that enables red knots to determine location, so that they can tailor their route depending on local conditions.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2019

Are polar bear habitat resource selection functions developed from 1985-1996 data still useful?

1. Greenhouse gas-induced warming in the Arctic has caused declines in sea ice extent and changed its composition, raising concerns by all circumpolar nations for polar bear conservation. 2. Negative impacts have been observed in three well-studied polar bear subpopulations. Most subpopulations, however, receive little or no direct monitoring, hence, resource selection functions (RSF) may provide a useful proxy of polar bear distributions. However, the efficacy of RSFs constructed from past data, i.e., reference RSFs, may be degraded under contemporary conditions, especially in a rapidly changing environment. 3. We assessed published Arctic-wide reference RSFs using tracking data from adult female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea. We compared telemetry-derived seasonal distributions of polar bears to RSF-defined optimal sea ice habitat during the period of RSF model development, 1985–1995, and two subsequent periods with diminished sea ice: 1996–2006 and 2007–2016. From these comparisons, we assessed the applicability of the reference RSFs for contemporary polar bear conservation. 4. In the two decades following the 1985–1995 reference period, use and availability of optimal habitat by polar bears declined during the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons. During the ice maximum season (i.e., winter), polar bears used the best habitat available, which changed relatively little across the three decades of study. During the ice melt, ice minimum and ice growth seasons, optimal habitat in areas used by polar bears decreased and was displaced north and east of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast. As optimal habitat diminished in these seasons, polar bears expanded their range and occupied greater areas of sub-optimal habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications: Sea ice declines due to climate change continue to challenge polar bears and their conservation. The distribution of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears remained similar during the ice maximum season, so the reference RSFs developed from data collected >20 years ago continue to accurately model their winter distribution. In contrast, reference RSFs for the ice transitional and minimum seasons showed diminished predictive efficacy but were useful in revealing that contemporary polar bears have been increasingly forced to use sub-optimal habitats during those seasons.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Satellite tracking of gulls and genomic characterization of fecal bacteria reveals environmentally mediated acquisition and dispersal of antimicrobial resistant Escherichia coli on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Gulls (Larus spp.) have frequently been reported to carry Escherichia coli exhibiting antimicrobial resistance (AMR E. coli); however, the pathways governing the acquisition and dispersal of such bacteria are not well-described. We equipped 17 landfill-foraging gulls with satellite transmitters and collected gull fecal samples longitudinally from four locations on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska to assess: 1) gull attendance and transitions between sites, 2) spatiotemporal prevalence of fecally-shed AMR E. coli, and 3) genomic relatedness of AMR E. coli isolates among sites. We also sampled Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) harvested as part of personal-use dipnet fisheries at two sites to assess potential contamination with AMR E. coli. Among our study sites, marked gulls most commonly occupied the lower Kenai River (61% of site locations) followed by the Soldotna landfill (11%), lower Kasilof River (5%), and upper Kenai River (<1%). Gulls primarily moved between the Soldotna landfill and the lower Kenai River (94% of transitions among sites), which were also the two locations with the highest prevalence of AMR E. coli. There was relatively high spatial and temporal variability in AMR E. coli prevalence in gull feces and there was no evidence of contamination on salmon harvested in personal-use fisheries. We identified E. coli sequence types and AMR genes of clinical importance, with some isolates possessing genes associated with resistance to as many as eight antibiotic classes. Our findings suggest that gulls acquire AMR E. coli at habitats with anthropogenic inputs and subsequent movements may represent pathways through which AMR is dispersed.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

The Aleutian Low – Beaufort Sea Anticyclone: A climate index for predicting the timing of springtime melt in the Pacific Arctic cryosphere

Early and late extremes in the timing of snowmelt have recently been observed in the Pacific Arctic. Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of this timing are important for industry, environmental management and Arctic communities. In northern Alaska, the timing is influenced by the advection of marine air from the north Pacific by the Aleutian Low, modulated by high pressure centered in the Beaufort Sea. A new climate index that integrates their interaction could advance melt predictions. We define this index based on 850 hPa geopotential height at four fixed locations referred to as the Aleutian Low –Beaufort Sea Anticyclone (ALBSA). During positive ALBSA in May, advection of +0.5-1.5 K/day is observed through the Bering Strait. ALBSA is correlated with both snowmelt in northern Alaska and the onset of sea ice melt over the adjacent seas. ALBSA, therefore, may be suitable for monitoring the relevant circulation patterns and for developing predictive tools.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2018

Density‐dependent and phenological mismatch effects on growth and survival in lesser snow and Ross's goslings

Strong seasonality of high‐latitude environments imposes temporal constraints on forage availability and quality for keystone herbivores in terrestrial arctic ecosystems, including hyper‐abundant colonial geese. Changes in food quality due to intraspecific competition, or food availability relative to the breeding phenology of birds, may have consequences for growth and survival of young. We used long‐term data (1993–2014) from the Karrak Lake nesting colony in the Canadian central arctic to study relative roles of density and phenological mismatch (i.e. days between seasonal peaks in vegetation quality and hatching) as drivers of annual variations in gosling survival among lesser snow Anser caerulescens caerulescens and Ross's geese A. rossii. Survival of Ross's goslings was consistently higher compared to snow geese. For both species, annual gosling survival was greatest when phenological mismatch was minimal and when nesting population size was low. We also examined gosling structural size (1999–2014) in relation to density and mismatch hypotheses to understand whether changes in survival were preceded by a parallel response in growth stemming from a density‐dependent effect on annual forage conditions. After controlling for sex, age and random effects of capture group and year × species, structural size of both snow and Ross's goslings was reduced in years when phenological mismatch was greater. However, there was no significant evidence that body size of goslings was negatively related to breeding population size at the colony. Our results lend support to the notion that both broad‐scale changes in seasonality from observed and predicted warming in the arctic and, to a lesser extent, density‐dependence on brood‐rearing areas may result in changes to offspring quality or survival, with implications for population recruitment.

Journal of Avian Biology↗

USGS2018

Non‐linear effect of sea ice: Spectacled Eider survival declines at both extremes of the ice spectrum

Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species’ response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23‐year mark‐recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather‐related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice‐free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice‐free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice‐free. Considerable uncertainty around parameter estimates for survival in years with minimal sea ice contributed to variation in stochastic projections of future population size, and this uncertainty could be reduced with additional survival data from low‐ice winters.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Movements and dive patterns of pygmy killer whales (Feresa attenuata) released in the Gulf of Mexico following rehabilitation

The habits and habitats of pygmy killer whales ( Feresa attenuata ) in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are poorly known outside of strandings and line-transect surveys. Two adult male pygmy killer whales were found live-stranded in the state of Mississippi (USA) on 1 September 2015 and were subsequently rehabilitated and returned to the offshore waters of the GoM on 11 July 2016. To monitor the animals post-release, both were tagged with satellite-linked location and dive behavior tags. Tags were programed to record and transmit dive duration and depth (when dives were ≥ 30 m deep for ≥ 30 s), duration of time spent above 30 m depth, and estimate locations using the Argos system. The tags transmitted for 15 and 88 days, respectively, providing a total of 1,027 filtered locations and 3,150 dive duration and maximum depth records. The animals began diving after two and four days, respectively, post-release. More than 96% of dives occurred at night. The longest recorded dive was more than 9 min in duration, and the deepest was to 368 m. More than 98% of the locations were over the GoM shelf break, spanning water 200 to 1,200 m deep. Diving patterns indicate that this species is most active at night in the GoM, suggesting its prey species are likely diel migrators that are below reachable depths during daylight hours. Near simultaneous location data from both animals confirmed that they stayed in close proximity but did not dive synchronously. Success of the rehabilitation and release was inconclusive for pygmy killer whale ID 30IMMS, whereas 31IMMS met the established criteria for success with ≥ 6 weeks of documented post-release survival. Follow-up monitoring through satellite-linked telemetry provided not only important data for evaluating the success of the rehabilitation but also for documenting the activity and habitat use of these seldom-observed cetaceans.

Aquatic Mammals↗