Geology topics

David A. Hewitt

Publications and source records attributed to David A. Hewitt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Avian predation on juvenile and adult Lost River and Shortnose Suckers: An updated multi-predator species evaluation

Previous research suggests that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds may negatively influence the survival of Lost River Suckers (LRS) Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers (SNS) Chasmistes brevirostris in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), USA. However, estimates of predation from past studies, which were based on suckers with PIT tags, represent minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of tags that were consumed by birds and deposited beyond their breeding colony. To address this uncertainty, we fed PIT-tagged suckers to American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos to estimate deposition probabilities. A hierarchical Bayesian model was then used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish that were consumed) on juvenile suckers that were released as part of the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) and on wild juvenile and adult LRS and SNS during 2009–2020. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated to be 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 tags consumed, 47 tags on average were deposited on breeding colonies by birds. Deposition-corrected estimates of predation rates were approximately two times greater than those previously reported and ranged annually from 4.3% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.7%) to 8.5% (6.3–12.7%) on SARP juvenile suckers, from 4.3% (0.9–13.2%) to 10.5% (3.8–24.5%) on wild juvenile suckers, and from 0.1% (<0.1–0.3%) to 7.2% (2.8–16.4%) on adult suckers, depending on species and location. Results suggest that predation by colonial waterbirds, although not the original cause of sucker declines, was a substantial source of sucker mortality in some years. Future studies should consider models that jointly estimate both predation and survival and models that include environmental factors that potentially influence sucker susceptibility to avian predators in the UKB.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2022

Distribution of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in conjunction with habitat and trout assemblages in creeks within the Klamath Basin, Oregon 2010–16

Bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Klamath Basin are on the southernmost border of the range of the species, where threats are most severe and where bull trout are most imperiled. In their recovery plan the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (2015, https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/report/species-with-recovery-plans ) suggested that Klamath Basin bull trout are at increased risk of extirpation due to habitat fragmentation, degradation of habitat complexity, and introduction of non-native trout species that often outcompete bull trout. The goals of this study were to determine if there was a lack of connectivity between habitat areas impeding migration, habitat differences, or interference by non-native species affecting bull trout distribution in the Klamath Basin. This study examined three populations of bull trout in conjunction with a concurrent native species (redband trout [ Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdnerii ]), and a concurrent non-native species (brown trout [ Salmo trutta ]) in tributaries of the upper Sprague River within the Klamath Basin. Culverts present at the beginning of the study may have impeded migration of bull trout, but culvert upgrades made during the study appeared to eliminate the impediments to migration. The presence of non-native brown trout appeared to cause bull trout to use a smaller portion of Leonard Creek, whereas the low numbers of brown trout in the studied portion of Brownsworth Creek did not appear to interfere with the local distribution of bull trout. Downstream migration of bull trout may have been impeded if there were increased numbers of brown trout or increased temperatures in the lower portions of the creeks outside of the study area. Although habitat complexity was not examined in detail during this study, there was an attempt to enhance the habitat for bull trout by introducing large woody debris into treatment sections of the creeks. We compared bull trout numbers between the treatment sections and nearby control sections prior to and after introduction of the large woody debris. The introduction of large woody debris did not appear to enhance the use of those areas by bull trout, but the large woody debris may not have been of suitable size to enhance the habitat for bull trout.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Spatial and temporal distribution of radio-tagged Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir and associated spawning tributaries, Northern California, 2015–17

Executive Summary Data from a multi-year radio telemetry study were used to assess seasonal distribution patterns for two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids across substantially different water conditions in Clear Lake Reservoir, northern California. Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers, two species endemic to the Klamath Basin, were implanted with radio transmitters in each of 3 years in an effort to expand our understanding of seasonal sucker movements within the reservoir and their migrations in spawning tributaries. Clear Lake Reservoir and its tributaries are part of a critical management unit within the Lost River Basin Recovery Unit for populations of Lost River and shortnose suckers. We documented residency and migratory behaviors and how behaviors were affected by lake surface elevations and water management practices. Adult suckers were captured during autumn trammel net sampling in the west lobe of the reservoir and implanted with internal radio transmitters. A total of 163 suckers were radio-tagged (75 in 2014, 64 in 2015, and 24 in 2016); 27 more shortnose suckers were tagged than Lost River suckers to reflect the larger population of shortnose suckers in the reservoir. Sex ratios were approximately equal for each species. Aerial telemetry surveys were used to monitor radio-tagged fish from January 20 to December 2 each year and to document the upstream extent of spawning migrations in the tributaries. Surveys were scheduled more frequently during the spawning season (February–June) when suckers are known to move out of the reservoir and into spawning tributaries.

California↗

USGS2021

Dynamics of endangered sucker populations in Clear Lake Reservoir, California

Executive Summary In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey began a consistent monitoring program for endangered Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, in fall 2004. The program was intended to improve understanding of the Clear Lake Reservoir populations because they are important to recovery efforts for these species. We report results from the ongoing program and include sampling efforts through fall 2019. We summarize catches and passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging efforts from trammel net sampling in the fall seasons (September–October each year) and detections of PIT-tagged suckers on remote antennas in the spring in each year from 2006 to 2019. We also combine the data from physical captures and remote detections in capture-recapture models to provide estimates of annual survival for suckers in the reservoir. A lack of genetic distinctiveness between shortnose suckers and Klamath largescale suckers ( Catostomus snyderi ) in the Lost River subbasin, including Clear Lake Reservoir, is a likely cause of past difficulty in identification of these species. Field identification can be subjective for many captured individuals, and very few individuals were identified as Klamath largescale suckers in the most recent years of our monitoring program. For this report, we combine individuals that were identified as either shortnose sucker (SNS) or Klamath largescale sucker (KLS) into a single “SNS-KLS” group for most analyses. Identification of Lost River suckers (LRS) is based on external morphological characteristics.

California↗

USGS2021

Avian predation of juvenile Lost River and Shortnose Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake: An assessment of Sucker assisted rearing program releases during 2018–2020

To bolster recruitment in Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed Lost River Suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and Shortnose Suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and its partners have implemented the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP). As part of this program, juvenile suckers were reared in captivity, implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags (n= 8,857), and released into the Upper Klamath Lake or its tributaries during 2018–2020. Previous research suggests that predation by American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), Double-crested Cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), and Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia) may negatively influence sucker survival, particularly predation on juvenile suckers. Estimates of predation impacts from past studies, however, represented minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of consumed tags that were deposited by birds on their breeding colony where PIT tag recovery efforts took place. To estimate and account for deposition probabilities, we conducted a field study in which we fed pelicans PIT-tagged juvenile suckers (n = 401). We accounted for deposition probabilities of cormorants and terns by using previously published estimates. Sucker PIT tags were recovered from pelican, cormorant, and tern nesting sites in the UKB following each breeding season and a hierarchical Bayesian model was used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish consumed) on SARP releases as well as naturally-reared or wild juvenile suckers and adult suckers that were PIT-tagged in Upper Klamath Lake and Clear Lake Reservoir. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated at 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 PIT tags consumed, on average, 47 were deposited by pelicans on breeding colonies. Estimates of predation rates that incorporate corrections for deposition on SARP releases ranged annually from 4.4% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.8%) to 8.8% (6.2–13.3%) during 2018–2020. Results suggest that colonial waterbird predation impacts on SARP releases likely constituted a small, but unknown, component of total mortality for suckers released into the Upper Klamath Lake system. Predation impacts on SARP juvenile suckers and wild juvenile suckers, which were estimated annually at 4.7% (1.0–13.9%) to 14.9% (7.6–29.3%), were consistently higher than those observed on adult suckers, with predation on adult suckers typically less than 4.0% of available fish annually. Future predation studies may consider models that integrate both live and dead detections of PIT-tagged suckers to generate more accurate and precise estimates of survival following release, as well as models that consider environmental factors that influence sucker susceptibility to colonial waterbird predation. Such models would provide a more holistic understanding of the degree to which avian predation limits the survival of ESA-listed suckers in the UKB.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Effects of harmful algal blooms and associated water-quality on endangered Lost River and shortnose suckers

Anthropogenic eutrophication contributes to harmful blooms of cyanobacteria in freshwater ecosystems worldwide. In Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, massive blooms of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and smaller blooms of other cyanobacteria are associated with cyanotoxins, hypoxia, high pH, high concentrations of ammonia, and potentially hypercapnia. Recovery of the endangered Lost River sucker Deltistes luxatus and shortnose sucker Chasmistes brevirostris in Upper Klamath Lake is obstructed by low survival in the juvenile life stage. Water quality associated with the harmful algal blooms and their decomposition (crashes) is often singled out as the primary cause of juvenile sucker mortality. We investigated this general hypothesis with a review of relevant literature and data from decades of monitoring in Upper Klamath Lake. Microcystins, hepatotoxins produced by some cyanobacteria, are unlikely to be directly lethal to suckers; potential effects of other cyanotoxins that are present in the lake warrant investigation. Dissolved-oxygen saturation declined following bloom crashes, but was infrequently low enough for long enough in Upper Klamath Lake to cause direct sucker mortality. Hypercapnia could potentially reach lethal concentrations in the fall and winter, but did not appear to be associated with the summer algal blooms. pH was highest during peaks in cyanobacteria growth, but infrequently reached directly lethal levels (> 10.3). However, pH frequently reached an observed sub-lethal effect level for juvenile suckers (10.0). Un-ionized ammonia rarely exceeded even the lowest effect level measured for suckers. Rather than act as a direct cause of large-scale mortality, the available evidence suggests that water quality associated with massive blooms of cyanobacteria in Upper Klamath Lake contributes to chronic stress for juvenile suckers and may increase mortality due to other factors.

Oregon↗

USGS2020

Characterization of the genetic structure of four sucker species in the Klamath River. Final Report

Four species of suckers (family Catostomidae) inhabit the Klamath River Basin of Oregon and California: Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus), shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris), Klamath largescale suckers (KLS; Catostomus snyderi), and Klamath smallscale suckers (KSS; Catostomus rimiculus). All but Klamath smallscale suckers are endemic and restricted to the Klamath River Basin where they occur sympatrically in large lakes and reservoirs, including the Lost River and Klamath Lake subbasins (Figure 1; USFWS 2012). Population declines, primarily due to loss or degradation of spawning, rearing, and adult habitat, have resulted in Lost River and shortnose suckers being listed as endangered throughout their entire range under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (USFWS 1988). Continued population declines coupled with failed adult recruitment prompted the USFWS to initiate an assisted rearing program in 2015 as a part of their recovery strategy (Childress et al. 2019). The program was designed to maintain as much genetic diversity as possible while improving recruitment by averting high early life stage mortality (Day et al. 2017). However, while assisted rearing efforts are targeted towards endangered LRS and SNS, species differentiation of larval and juvenile suckers is problematic in the Klamath River Basin. This, in turn, complicates the management of these species as well as the population modeling used to evaluate recovery efforts. Maintaining as much as possible of the genetic resources, or “evolutionary legacy” of a species is a goal common to conservation and endangered species recovery strategies. Inappropriate assumptions regarding species’ evolutionary lineages, and genetic characteristics may lead to the mismanagement of an endangered species through a failure to recognize and appropriately manage species boundaries and genetic population structure. Despite a considerable amount of research, the partitioning of genetic diversity within and among the four species of suckers in the Klamath River Basin remains unclear. Previously developed genetic markers are effective at differentiating some species, but fail to effectively differentiate all four species of suckers in the basin (Tranah et al. 2001; Wagman 2003; Tranah and May 2006; Hoy and Ostberg 2015; Dowling et al. 2016). Peer-reviewed publications describing the morphological characteristics of (Markle et al. 2005) and genetic relationships among (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) Klamath River Basin suckers have not resolved uncertainties regarding the systematic relationships among the four currently recognized taxa. Specifically, genetic and morphological data generally support LRS and KSS as being distinct entities, but genetic evidence does not support a distinction between KLS and SNS. All three publications above refer to unpublished information regarding ecological differences between KLS and SNS as evidence to support the existence of two entities. However, the authors also acknowledge that overlap in morphological characters (Markle et al. 2005) and a lack of genetic differentiation (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006) between KLS and SNS raises the question of their specific identity. This is particularly problematic in the Lost River subbasin, where overlap in morphological characters between KLS and SNS is greatest. In our opinion, the basis of the strong genetic similarity between KLS and SNS has not been resolved. Morphological characters mostly support the existence of two distinct species, while genetic characters do not (i.e., genetic divergence between KLS and SNS is less than divergence among populations of each species; (Smith et al. 2015). Some have suggested that introgressive hybridization may have resulted in a lack of genetic differentiation between KLS and SNS and a breakdown of monophyletic species (Dowling et al. 2016; Tranah and May 2006), and that this hybridization may be an important process in

California, Oregon↗

USGS2019

Monitoring of endangered Klamath Basin suckers translocated from Lake Ewauna to Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014−2017

Data from a 4-year capture and transport program were used to assess translocation as a management strategy for two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in the Upper Klamath Basin, Oregon. Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) suckers, two species endemic to the Klamath Basin, were translocated from Lake Ewauna to Upper Klamath Lake in each of 4 years (2014–2017) in an effort to augment existing spawning populations in Upper Klamath Lake. Lake Ewauna, downstream of Upper Klamath Lake and connected to it by the Link River, has small populations of Lost River and shortnose suckers. Upper Klamath Lake has the largest remaining population of Lost River suckers and one of the largest remaining populations of shortnose suckers. Adult suckers were captured in Lake Ewauna, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and translocated to the Williamson River, a spawning tributary that flows into Upper Klamath Lake. We monitored initial success of translocation efforts with encounters from remote PIT tag antennas and physical recaptures. A total of 659 suckers were translocated from Lake Ewauna to the Williamson River (40 in 2014, 384 in 2015, 172 in 2016, and 63 in 2017). All individuals that were translocated were assumed to be one of the endangered taxa, but recaptures indicated that some translocated suckers were misidentified and were instead Klamath largescale suckers ( Catostomus snyderi ), a non-listed species that is also endemic to the Upper Klamath Basin. Other recaptures of translocated individuals revealed conflicts in species identification between the two endangered taxa as well. Due to species identification conflicts, we analyzed translocated individuals by cohort (year of translocation) and sex only. Specifically, we documented encounters of translocated individuals at spawning locations and throughout the Upper Klamath Lake watershed, analyzed frequency of return to spawning sites, assessed fidelity to spawning sites, and monitored migration timing over three full years (2015, 2016, and 2017). Remote PIT tag antennas at 11 sites and 5 physical capture locations were part of a monitoring network to re-encounter translocated individuals. In contrast to other years of the study, high flows in the Williamson River in 2017 prevented the installation of a river-wide weir and upstream trap with associated PIT-tag antennas that routinely detect large numbers of tagged fish. As a result, re-encounter probabilities in 2017 were expected to be lower than 2015 and 2016.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015. Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Status and trends of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2015

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Citizen science can improve conservation science, natural resource management, and environmental protection

Citizen science has advanced science for hundreds of years, contributed to many peer-reviewed articles, and informed land management decisions and policies across the United States. Over the last 10 years, citizen science has grown immensely in the United States and many other countries. Here, we show how citizen science is a powerful tool for tackling many of the challenges faced in the field of conservation biology. We describe the two interwoven paths by which citizen science can improve conservation efforts, natural resource management, and environmental protection. The first path includes building scientific knowledge, while the other path involves informing policy and encouraging public action. We explore how citizen science is currently used and describe the investments needed to create a citizen science program. We find that: Citizen science already contributes substantially to many domains of science, including conservation, natural resource, and environmental science. Citizen science informs natural resource management, environmental protection, and policymaking and fosters public input and engagement. Many types of projects can benefit from citizen science, but one must be careful to match the needs for science and public involvement with the right type of citizen science project and the right method of public participation. Citizen science is a rigorous process of scientific discovery, indistinguishable from conventional science apart from the participation of volunteers. When properly designed, carried out, and evaluated, citizen science can provide sound science, efficiently generate high-quality data, and help solve problems.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2016

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and Shortnose suckers in the Upper Klamath Basin

We evaluated predation on Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers Chasmistes brevirostris by American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos and double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus nesting at mixed-species colonies in the Upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California during 2009–2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering (detecting) PIT tags from tagged fish on bird colonies and calculating minimum predation rates, as the percentage of available suckers consumed, adjusted for PIT tag detection probabilities but not deposition probabilities (i.e., probability an egested tag was deposited on- or off-colony). Results indicate that impacts of avian predation varied by sucker species, age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location, and year, demonstrating dynamic predator–prey interactions. Tagged suckers ranging in size from 72 to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest Lost River Suckers were susceptible to bird predation. Minimum predation rate estimates ranged annually from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available PIT-tagged Lost River Suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available Shortnose Suckers, and predation rates were consistently higher on suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, California, than on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. There was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers (species unknown) in Upper Klamath Lake was higher than on adult suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, where minimum predation rates ranged annually from 5.7% to 8.4% of available juveniles. Results suggest that avian predation is a factor limiting the recovery of populations of Lost River and Shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir. Additional research is needed to measure predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities (which, based on other published studies, could increase predation rates presented herein by a factor of roughly 2.0) and to better understand biotic and abiotic factors that regulate sucker susceptibility to bird predation.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2016

The logic of comparative life history studies for estimating key parameters, with a focus on natural mortality rate

There are a number of key parameters in population dynamics that are difficult to estimate, such as natural mortality rate, intrinsic rate of population growth, and stock-recruitment relationships. Often, these parameters of a stock are, or can be, estimated indirectly on the basis of comparative life history studies. That is, the relationship between a difficult to estimate parameter and life history correlates is examined over a wide variety of species in order to develop predictive equations. The form of these equations may be derived from life history theory or simply be suggested by exploratory data analysis. Similarly, population characteristics such as potential yield can be estimated by making use of a relationship between the population parameter and bio-chemico–physical characteristics of the ecosystem. Surprisingly, little work has been done to evaluate how well these indirect estimators work and, in fact, there is little guidance on how to conduct comparative life history studies and how to evaluate them. We consider five issues arising in such studies: (i) the parameters of interest may be ill-defined idealizations of the real world, (ii) true values of the parameters are not known for any species, (iii) selecting data based on the quality of the estimates can introduce a host of problems, (iv) the estimates that are available for comparison constitute a non-random sample of species from an ill-defined population of species of interest, and (v) the hierarchical nature of the data (e.g. stocks within species within genera within families, etc., with multiple observations at each level) warrants consideration. We discuss how these issues can be handled and how they shape the kinds of questions that can be asked of a database of life history studies.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗

USGS2015

Status and trends of adult Lost River ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

Executive Summary Data from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2014 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2013. Separate analyses were conducted for each species and also for each subpopulation of Lost River suckers (LRS). Shortnose suckers (SNS) and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. In 2014, we captured, tagged, and released 496 LRS at four lakeshore spawning areas and recaptured an additional 970 individuals that had been tagged in previous years. Across all four areas, the remote antennas detected 6,370 individual LRS during the spawning season. Spawning activity peaked in April and most individuals were encountered at Cinder Flats and Sucker Springs. In the Williamson River, we captured, tagged, and released 3,038 LRS and 267 SNS, and recaptured 762 LRS and 156 SNS that had been tagged in previous years. Remote PIT tag antennas in the traps at the weir on the Williamson River and remote antenna systems that spanned the river at three different locations on the Williamson and Sprague Rivers detected a total of 23,446 LRS and 6,259 SNS. Most LRS passed upstream in the first and second weeks of April when water temperatures were increasing and greater than 10 °C. In contrast, upstream passage for SNS occurred in two pulses, one in early April and one in late April to early May, when water temperatures were increasing and near or greater than 12 °C. Finally, an additional 375 LRS and 884 SNS were captured in trammel net sampling at pre-spawn staging areas in the northeastern part of the lake. Of these, 111 of the LRS and 390 of the SNS had been PIT-tagged in previous years. For LRS captured at the staging areas that had encounter histories that were informative about their spawning location, 79 percent of the fish were members of the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers. Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for more than 13,200 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included more than 36,400 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) between 1999 and 2012. Notably lower survival occurred for both sexes from the rivers in 2000, for males from the shoreline areas in 2002, and for males from the rivers in 2006 and 2012. Between 2001 and 2013, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 55 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 42 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2013. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for more than 19,200 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2001 and 2012 were high (greater than 0.80), but SNS experienced more years of low survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, male survival was low in 2002. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial between 2001 and 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable between 2006 and 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 77 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 73 percent between 2001 and 2013. Decreases in abundance for both sexes likely are greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Effects of lake surface elevation on shoreline-spawning Lost River Suckers

We analyzed remote detection data from PIT-tagged Lost River Suckers Deltistes luxatus at four shoreline spawning areas in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, to determine whether spawning of this endangered species was affected by low water levels. Our investigation was motivated by the observation that the surface elevation of the lake during the 2010 spawning season was the lowest in 38 years. Irrigation withdrawals in 2009 that were not replenished by subsequent winter-spring inflows caused a reduction in available shoreline spawning habitat in 2010. We compared metrics of skipped spawning, movement among spawning areas, and spawning duration across 8 years (2006-2013) that had contrasting spring water levels. Some aspects of sucker spawning were similar in all years, including few individuals straying from the shoreline areas to spawning locations in lake tributaries and consistent effects of increasing water temperatures on the accumulation of fish at the spawning areas. During the extreme low water year of 2010, 14% fewer female and 8% fewer male suckers joined the shoreline spawning aggregation than in the other years. Both males and females visited fewer spawning areas within Upper Klamath Lake in 2010 than in other years, and the median duration at spawning areas in 2010 was at least 36% shorter for females and 20% shorter for males relative to other years. Given the imperiled status of the species and the declining abundance of the population in Upper Klamath Lake, any reduction in spawning success and egg production could negatively impact recovery efforts. Our results indicate that lake surface elevations above 1,262.3-1,262.5 m would be unlikely to limit the number of spawning fish and overall egg production.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

Investing in citizen science can improve natural resource management and environmental protection

Citizen science has made substantive contributions to science for hundreds of years. More recently, it has contributed to many articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals and has influenced natural resource management and environmental protection decisions and policies across the nation. Over the last 10 years, citizen science—participation by the public in a scientific project—has seen explosive growth in the United States, particularly in ecology, the environmental sciences, and related fields of inquiry. In this report, we explore the current use of citizen science in natural resource and environmental science and decision making in the United States and describe the investments organizations might make to benefit from citizen science.

Issues in Ecology↗

USGS2015

Colonial waterbird predation on Lost River and shortnose suckers based on recoveries of passive integrated transponder tags

We evaluated predation on Lost River suckers ( Deltistes luxatus ) and shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ), both listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), from American white pelicans ( Pelecanus erythrorhynchos ) and double-crested cormorants ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) nesting at mixed species colonies on Clear Lake Reservoir, CA and Upper Klamath Lake, OR during 2009-2014. Predation was evaluated by recovering passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags that were implanted in suckers, subsequently consumed by pelicans or cormorants, and deposited on the birds’ nesting colonies. Data from PIT tag recoveries were used to estimate predation rates (proportion of available tagged suckers consumed) by birds to evaluate the relative susceptibility of suckers to avian predation in Upper Klamath Basin. Data on the size of pelican and cormorant colonies (number of breeding adults) at Clear Lake and Upper Klamath Lake were also collected and reported in the context of predation on suckers. Results indicate that predation rates varied by sucker species (Lost River, shortnose), sucker age-class (adult, juvenile), bird colony location (Upper Klamath Lake, Clear Lake), and year (2009-2014), demonstrating that predator-prey interactions in the system were dynamic during the study period. Tagged suckers ranging from 72 mm to 730 mm were susceptible to cormorant or pelican predation; all but the largest of the tagged Lost River suckers were susceptible to avian predation. Estimates of minimum, annual predation rates ranged from <0.1% to 4.6% of the available Lost River suckers and from <0.1% to 4.2% of the available shortnose suckers during the study period. Of the two colony locations evaluated, predation rates on suckers in Clear Lake were generally higher by birds nesting at mixed-species colonies on Clear Lake. Birds nesting on Clear Lake also commuted over 75 kilometers to forage on suckers in Upper Klamath Lake. Conversely, there was no evidence that birds nesting in Upper Klamath Lake foraged on tagged suckers in Clear Lake. Although sample sizes of tagged juvenile suckers were small and limited to fish tagged in Upper Klamath Lake, there was evidence that bird predation on juvenile suckers was higher than on adult suckers, with annual predate rate estimates on juvenile suckers ranging from 5.7% to 8.4% of available fish. The minimum annual predation rates presented here suggests that avian predation may be a factor limiting recovery of populations of Lost River and shortnose suckers, particularly juvenile suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult suckers in Clear Lake. Additional research is needed, however, to better assess the impacts of avian predation on sucker populations by (1) recovering PIT tags in a manner so that the species of avian predator is known (i.e., pelican vs. cormorant), (2) measuring predator-specific PIT tag deposition probabilities at each colony, (3) increasing the sample of juvenile suckers in the population that are PIT-tagged, and (4) recovering sufficient sample sizes of PIT tags on bird colonies to describe how various biotic and abiotic factors (e.g., fish size and condition, water levels and quality, and other factors) contribute to sucker susceptibility to avian predation in the Upper Klamath Basin.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2014

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M , of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M , (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age ( t max ), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M . We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a t max -based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The t max -based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on t max and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K . It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the t max -based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a t max -based estimator ( M = 4.899 t max − 0.916 "> M = 4.899 t − 0.916 max M=4.899tmax−0.916 , prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method ( M = 4.118 K 0.73 L ∞ − 0.33 "> M = 4.118 K 0.73 L − 0.33 ∞ M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗