Geology topics

Daniel Gibson

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel Gibson.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Environmental drivers of productivity explain population patterns of an Arctic-nesting goose across a half-century

Joint estimation of demographic rates and population size has become an essential tool in ecology because it enables evaluating mechanisms for population change and testing hypotheses about drivers of demography in a single modeling framework. This approach provides a comprehensive perspective on population dynamics and how animal populations will respond to global pressures in future years. However, long-term data for such analyses are often limited in quantity and quality. We developed an integrated population model combining data on demography and population size from nine different sources to understand the population ecology of the lesser snow goose ( Anser caerulescens caerulescens ) in the Pacific Flyway in North America from 1970 to 2022. We divided the flyway population into Wrangel Island and Western Arctic subpopulations and assessed demographic mechanisms for population change and environmental and anthropogenic drivers that influenced demography. During 1970–2022, the estimated spring population of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway increased from ~300,000 to ~2,300,000. Short-term changes in population growth rate were primarily driven by changes in productivity in the Western Arctic and productivity and immigration in Wrangel Island. Changes in hunting and natural mortality had less influence on short-term but likely contributed to the pronounced long-term population growth. Early snowmelt positively influenced per capita productivity in both regions, and warm, rainy weather during the non-breeding season was associated with high per capita productivity in the Western Arctic. In the Western Arctic, per capita productivity was negatively associated with population size, and adult natural mortality was positively associated with population size, indicating density-dependent regulation in this subpopulation. In Wrangel Island, warm weather in early fall decreased juvenile natural mortality. Our results demonstrate that per capita productivity and immigration, rather than adult survival, were the primary mechanisms of short-term population change in this long-lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental conditions and density-dependent effects can impact population dynamics more than harvest, even for a long-lived, commonly harvested species. We demonstrate that a warming climate can have multiple effects on demography, emphasizing the importance of assessing a variety of spatial and temporal factors when predicting how populations might respond to large-scale environmental changes. This emphasizes the importance of conservation plans that consider these environmental drivers, although this may complicate direct management of such populations.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Galliform exclusion from the Migratory Bird Treaty Act has produced an alternate conservation path, but no evidence for differences in population status

The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) is critical to avian conservation in the United States, both through its protection of migratory birds and as a catalyst for a century of coordinated avian conservation. While more than 1,000 species are protected by MBTA, of extant bird species native to the continental U.S., only 20 species belonging to the order Galliformes are explicitly excluded. Management of galliforms has occurred largely without direct federal oversight, placing this group on a fundamentally different conservation path during the century following MBTA passage. In this paper, we review the historical context and biological justification for exclusion of galliforms from MBTA and synthesize how their present-day conservation differs from that of migratory birds. We find the most prominent difference between the two groups involves the scope of coordination among stakeholders. The U.S. government, primarily via the Department of Interior, acts as de facto coordinating body for migratory bird conservation and plays the central role in oversight, funding, and administration of management in the United States. In contrast, galliform management falls primarily to individual state wildlife agencies, and coordinated conservation efforts have been more ad hoc and unevenly spread across species. Migratory birds benefit from an almost universally greater scope of research and monitoring, scale of habitat conservation, and sophistication of harvest management compared with galliforms. Galliform harvest management plans, in particular, are less likely to use measurable objectives, reporting of uncertainty in population parameters, and explanation of harvest management techniques. Based on a review of species status lists (e.g., the U.S. Endangered Species Act), we found no evidence that galliforms were more frequently listed than migratory species. Regional trend estimates from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) were more likely to be negative for galliforms over the period 1966–2015, but this was primarily driven by Northern Bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ). Data to assess galliform population status are generally poor, which complicates assessment for roughly half of galliform species. Increased support for coordination among state agencies and other stakeholders, similar to that applied to migratory birds, could help to ensure that galliform conservation is poised to tackle forthcoming challenges associated with global change.

North America↗

USGS2019

Residency, recruitment, and stopover duration of hatch-year Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) during the pre-migratory staging period

Avian migratory stopover and staging sites represent important energetic bottlenecks and may influence population dynamics as much as breeding or wintering periods. Roseate terns ( Sterna dougallii ) are an ideal species to examine staging demography because >70% of the entire endangered northwest Atlantic population stages at accessible locations around Cape Cod, MA before southward migration. We quantified hatch-year tern weekly residency, weekly recruitment rate into the staging population, and derived weekly staging population growth rate during two post-breeding, pre-migratory staging seasons (2014 and 2015) at Cape Cod National Seashore. We also estimated hatch-year tern staging duration at Cape Cod staging grounds. Tern residency probability at Cape Cod National Seashore during 2014 and 2015 was nearly 1 during the first weeks of the season and decreased steadily over the last four weeks to ~0.5 in the final week of the study. Recruitment rates into the staging population, representing the weekly per capita increase in hatch-year terns during the staging season, indicated that most terns arrived on the staging grounds during the first weeks of the staging season (16 July–19 August). We also identified differences in staging duration between birds from the two breeding regions. Hatch-year terns from the southernmost region spent less time staging at Cape Cod National Seashore than their northern counterparts in both 2014 and 2015. These differences may indicate alternative staging strategies for individuals originating in different regions and possibly reveal differences in conditions between these areas; for example, in the availability of ephemeral prey fish.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2013

Intraseasonal variation in survival and probable causes of mortality in greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

The mortality process is a key component of avian population dynamics, and understanding factors that affect mortality is central to grouse conservation. Populations of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus have declined across their range in western North America. We studied cause-specific mortality of radio-marked sage-grouse in Eureka County, Nevada, USA, during two seasons, nesting (2008-2012) and fall (2008-2010), when survival was known to be lower compared to other times of the year. We used known-fate and cumulative incidence function models to estimate weekly survival rates and cumulative risk of cause-specific mortalities, respectively. These methods allowed us to account for temporal variation in sample size and staggered entry of marked individuals into the sample to obtain robust estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality. We monitored 376 individual sage-grouse during the course of our study, and investigated 87 deaths. Predation was the major source of mortality, and accounted for 90% of all mortalities during our study. During the nesting season (1 April - 31 May), the cumulative risk of predation by raptors (0.10; 95% CI: 0.05-0.16) and mammals (0.08; 95% CI: 0.03-013) was relatively equal. In the fall (15 August - 31 October), the cumulative risk of mammal predation was greater (M (mam) = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.04-0.19) than either predation by raptors (M (rap) = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.00-0.10) or hunting harvest (M (hunt) = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.0-0.06). During both seasons, we observed relatively few additional sources of mortality (e.g. collision) and observed no evidence of disease-related mortality (e.g. West Nile Virus). In general, we found little evidence for intraseasonal temporal variation in survival, suggesting that the nesting and fall seasons represent biologically meaningful time intervals with respect to sage-grouse survival.

Nevada↗