Geology topics

Daniel B. Hayes

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel B. Hayes.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Water temperature analysis of the North Branch Au Sable River, Michigan, and implications to salmonid populations

Ambient stream water temperatures affect salmonid movement and survival with fish actively seeking thermal refugia from warming waters. This study sought to investigate the potential role of water temperature in the perceived decline in native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis and non-native Brown Trout Salmo trutta populations in the North Branch Au Sable River by fishers and reported to resource managers in 2018 and 2019. Water temperature was analyzed at nine stations within the North Branch Au Sable River in 2021 and 2022. A total of 61,390 temperature observations were collected with 58.0% exceeding the optimal growth threshold for Brook Trout of 16°C; 37.9% exceeding the movement threshold for Brook Trout of 18°C; 3.4% exceeding the upper limit for positive growth for Brook Trout of 23.4°C; and 28.6% exceeding the optimal growth threshold for Brown Trout of 19°C. The maximum daily water temperatures recorded for each year were 27.58°C in 2021 and 26.89°C in 2022. The availability of cold water thermal refugia is critical to the viability of native Brook Trout populations in the North Branch Au Sable River and its tributaries. Efforts should be taken to increase ambient stream water temperature monitoring year-round and to determine the size, frequency, and availability of thermal refugia within the watershed to increase the likelihood of a system resilient to the impacts of a warming climate.

Michigan↗

USGS2024

Great Lakes mallard population dynamics

Breeding mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) populations in the Great Lakes region (Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, USA) declined by >40% between 2000–2022 based on abundance data collected during spring aerial surveys. Mallards are an important waterfowl species in this region, where an estimated 60–80% of the mallard harvest is composed of locally banded birds. Extensive population monitoring datasets are available for mallards, presenting an opportunity to address complex questions such as estimating productivity at large spatial and temporal scales, identifying the effects of harvest on mallard demography, quantifying mechanisms for harvest compensation, and integrating multiple datasets to quantify the demographic drivers of population change. Our objective was to simultaneously examine factors affecting demographic parameters and their relative contribution to Great Lakes mallard population dynamics. We used 32 years of banding, band recovery, and aerial survey data collected for mallards from Michigan and Wisconsin to develop an integrated population model (IPM). We used age ratios at banding to estimate productivity, band recoveries from hunter-harvested birds to estimate annual survival and cause-specific mortality (i.e., harvest or non-hunting), and modeled abundance using aerial survey and demographic parameter estimates from 1991–2022. The IPM results indicated the decline in Great Lakes mallard abundance was caused by increased non-hunting mortality and a decline in productivity. Productivity varied spatially but temporally declined with the loss of Conservation Reserve Program area. Moreover, our productivity assessment provided evidence of density dependence in reproduction. Non-hunting mortality was 3.5–6.7 times and 1.3–4.2 times greater than harvest mortality for adult and juvenile female mallards, respectively, indicating environmental factors during spring and summer, not harvest, most greatly influenced annual mortality for female mallards. Our IPM reduced uncertainty in the factors affecting Great Lakes mallard population dynamics and indicated management actions that address non-hunting mortality and productivity would be most effective in increasing Great Lakes mallard abundance.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Integrating terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to constrain estimates of land-atmosphere carbon exchange

In this Perspective, we put forward an integrative framework to improve estimates of land-atmosphere carbon exchange based on the accumulation of carbon in the landscape as constrained by its lateral export through rivers. The framework uses the watershed as the fundamental spatial unit and integrates all terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems as well as their hydrologic carbon exchanges. Application of the framework should help bridge the existing gap between land and atmosphere-based approaches and offers a platform to increase communication and synergy among the terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric research communities that is paramount to advance landscape carbon budget assessments.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2023

Fish assemblages in the Penobscot River: A decade after dam removal

The Penobscot River Restoration Project in Maine was a large river rehabilitation project that culminated in the removal of the two lowermost dams and improvements to fish passage on several remaining dams. Fish assemblages were surveyed for 3 years prior to rehabilitation, 3 years after rehabilitation, and 8 years after rehabilitation. Approximately 475 km of shoreline were sampled via boat electrofishing, yielding 133,394 individual fish of 41 species. The greatest shifts in assemblage structure occurred immediately after dam removal in formerly impounded sections, with an increased prevalence of riverine and migratory species. Long-term sampling documented changes within tributaries and tidally influenced river segments, where large schools of adult and young-of-the-year alosines increased in abundance. Upstream of the lowermost dam, the river remains dominated by lacustrine species, while adult anadromous fishes continue to be most abundant immediately downstream of the lowermost dam. Our results provide increased evidence that dam removals result in altered fish assemblages, which are now dominated by riverine and anadromous species in previously impounded habitats. Alosines in the Penobscot River have exhibited the greatest long-term response to river restoration efforts.

Maine↗

USGS2023

Habitat selection by lake trout at reefs near Drummond Island, Lake Huron: An evaluation of physical characteristics used for spawning

Continued dependence on stocking of hatchery-reared lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush , in the Laurentian Great Lakes indicates recruitment bottlenecks still exist between spawning and the juvenile life stage (age-1). Possible impediments include poor habitat quality and an inability of hatchery-origin adults to select substrates that support successful incubation. Understanding of characteristics of suitable lake trout spawning habitat is limited but has centered on the cobble-contour framework, which identifies sloped reefs with cobble substrate and deep interstices to entrain eggs as spawning habitat. A novel sampling design based on acoustic-telemetry detections was used to evaluate relative importance of cobble-contour habitat characteristics (substrate size, homogeneity, interstitial depth, and slope) for predicting egg presence on two spawning reefs in northern Lake Huron. Fixed effect logistic regression models were used to relate egg presence to all possible combinations of measured physical characteristics. Physical characteristics of sites with naturally spawned eggs present varied, and no single best model predicted egg presence. Model selection and multi-model inference revealed slope to be the only informative predictor. Substrate size, homogeneity, and interstitial depth were not important. Embryo survival-to-hatch was also compared among sampling sites using in situ habitat bioassays seeded with hatchery fertilized embryos. No difference in embryo survival was observed between sites where naturally spawned eggs were present vs. absent. Over half of sites evaluated exceeded 75% survival. Naturally spawned eggs were observed at 25 of 57 sites. We suspect other characteristics such as interstitial flow could be helpful for predicting selection of lake trout spawning habitats.

Michigan↗

USGS2022

A process-model perspective on recent changes in the carbon cycle of North America

Continental North America has been found to be a carbon (C) sink over recent decades by multiple studies employing a variety of estimation approaches. However, several key questions and uncertainties remain with these assessments. Here we used results from an ensemble of 19 state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models from the TRENDYv9 project to improve these estimates and study the drivers of its interannual variability. Our results show that North America has been a C sink with a magnitude of 0.37 ± 0.38 (mean and one standard deviation) PgC year −1 for the period 2000–2019 (0.31 and 0.44 PgC year −1 in each decade); split into 0.18 ± 0.12 PgC year −1 in Canada (0.15 and 0.20), 0.16 ± 0.17 in the United States (0.14 and 0.17), 0.02 ± 0.05 PgC year −1 in Mexico (0.02 and 0.02) and 0.01 ± 0.02 in Central America and the Caribbean (0.01 and 0.01). About 57% of the new C assimilated by terrestrial ecosystems is allocated into vegetation, 30% into soils, and 13% into litter. Losses of C due to fire account for 41% of the interannual variability of the mean net biome productivity for all North America in the model ensemble. Finally, we show that drought years (e.g., 2002) have the potential to shift the region to a small net C source in the simulations (−0.02 ± 0.46 PgC year −1 ). Our results highlight the importance of identifying the major drivers of the interannual variability of the continental-scale land C cycle along with the spatial distribution of local sink-source dynamics.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences↗

USGS2021

Pedigree accumulation analysis: Combining methods from community ecology and population genetics for breeding adult estimation

Estimates of the number of successfully breeding adults ( N S ) in a population can predict levels of recruitment. However, assessments of N S are often difficult to obtain because encounters with adults are limited due to life-history characteristics, low abundance or other constraints associated with access to critical habitats. Alternatively, efforts to sample individuals at earlier ontogenetic stages can be more tractable, resulting in more comprehensive samples. To estimate N S , we describe, evaluate and apply two nonparametric species richness estimators to information associated with genetic pedigree reconstruction. Simulations compared bias and precision associated with Chao and Jackknife methods when estimating N S . We also evaluated N S estimation sensitivity to two sources of variation associated with species reproductive ecology (variance in reproductive success and sex ratio skew) and genetic pedigree assignment error. Finally, the application of our novel method was demonstrated in two different species and systems (Chinook Salmon in Oregon, USA and Lake Sturgeon in Michigan, USA). We found unbiased N S estimates were generated across a broad range of offspring sample sizes using the Chao method. Empirical results corroborated simulation-based expectations and highlighted applications where parents and offspring are sampled, and when only offspring are sampled. When offspring sample sizes are adequate and pedigree reconstruction errors are low, the combination of established methods from community ecology and genetic pedigree reconstruction provides an accurate alternative method to estimate N S that can facilitate population assessments.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Egg and larval collection methods affect spawning adult numbers inferred by pedigree analysis

Analytical methods that incorporate genetic data are increasingly used in monitoring and assessment programs for important rate functions of fish populations (e.g., recruitment). Because gear types vary in efficiencies and effective sampling areas, results from genetic‐based assessments likely differ depending on the sampling gear used to collect genotyped individuals; consequently, management decisions may also be affected by sampling gear. In this study, genetic pedigree analysis conducted on egg and larval Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens collected from the St. Clair–Detroit River system using three gear types was used to estimate and evaluate gear‐specific differences in the number of spawning adults that produced the eggs and larvae sampled ( N s ), the effective number of breeding adults ( N b ), and individual reproductive success. Combined across locations and sampling years, pooled estimates were 330 ( N s ; point estimate) and 317 ( N b ; 95% CI = 271–372). Mean reproductive success was 4.35 with a variance of 5.33 individuals/spawner. Mean ± SE estimated numbers of unique parents per genotyped egg or larva (i.e., adult detection rate) from 2015 samples were 1.140 ± 0.003 for vertically stratified conical nets, 0.836 ± 0.002 for D‐frame nets, and 0.870 ± 0.002 for egg mats. Using samples from 2016, adult detection rates were 0.823 ± 0.001 for D‐frame nets and 0.708 ± 0.001 for egg mat collections. Coancestry values were negatively correlated with adult detection rate. Although genetic pedigree analyses can improve the understanding of recruitment in fish populations, this study demonstrates that estimates from genetic analyses can vary with the targeted life stage (a biologically informative outcome) and sampling methodology. This study also highlights the influence of sampling methods on the interpretation of genetic pedigree analysis results when multiple gear types are used to collect individuals. Development of standardization approaches may facilitate spatial and temporal comparisons of genetic‐based assessment results.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2020

Evidence of spawning by lake trout Salvelinus namaycush on substrates at the base of large boulders in northern Lake Huron

Identification of lake trout spawning sites has focused on cobble substrates associated with bathymetric relief (e.g., ‘contour’ or ‘slope’ along reefs), but this ‘model’ may be narrow in scope. Previous telemetry work conducted near Drummond Island, USA, Lake Huron, identified egg presence in substrates at the base of large boulders (>1 m diameter); however, the extent of this phenomenon was unknown. Telemetry data paired with multi-beam bathymetry identified a 0.63 km 2 area used by lake trout characterized by low bathymetric relief and numerous (~269) large boulders (>1 m diameter) with small-diameter substrates at their bases. Diver surveys revealed egg presence at all 40 boulders surveyed, exclusively associated with clean gravel-cobble (0.6–42 cm) substrates in undercut areas beneath overhanging edges of boulders and in narrow spaces between adjacent boulders. Egg presence was not associated with boulder or substrate physical characteristics which highlighted the possible importance of interstitial currents. Successful incubation in these habitats was inferred by capture of free embryos and post-embryos the following spring using traps and an electrofishing ROV although at lower densities than at popular spawning habitats nearby (1–3 km away). Free embryos and post-embryos were also caught where eggs were not observed the previous fall including unexpectedly on top of boulders which suggested that post-hatch stages may move more than previously thought. Extensive use of boulder-associated habitats for spawning, egg incubation, and early growth suggested this undescribed habitat type may provide an unanticipated contribution to total available lake trout spawning habitat and recruitment in the Great Lakes.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2019

Role of recovering river herring population on smallmouth bass diet and growth

Fish assemblages in Atlantic coastal rivers have undergone extensive ecological change in the last two and a half centuries due to human influence, including extirpation of many migratory fish species, such as river herring (Alosa spp.) and introduction of nonnative piscivores, notably Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu. Recently, dam removals and fish passage improvements in the Penobscot River, Maine, have allowed river herring to return to reaches of the river that have been inaccessible since the late 19th century. Alosine populations have increased and this trend is anticipated to continue. This may increase forage in the system which could potentially increase growth for Smallmouth Bass, the dominant piscivore. We examined the diet and growth of Smallmouth Bass collected from areas of the Penobscot River watershed with and without access to river herring as prey. We collected 765 Smallmouth Bass throughout 2015, examined the stomach contents of 573 individuals, and found notable differences in diet among three river reaches with common seasonal trends. Juvenile river herring composed an average of 19% (SE = ±6%) of stomach contents by mass from Smallmouth Bass collected in the freshwater tidal area but were rarely observed in the diets upstream. We used estimates from von Bertalanffy growth models to examine differences in growth among reaches and found that asymptotic length was the longest (425 mm TL) in the Tidal reach where access to river herring was unrestricted. We then used these data to predict changes to growth associated with increased access to juvenile river herring prey with bioenergetics models. Results indicated that substituting juvenile river herring for less energy-dense prey (e.g.,invertebrates) may lead to increases in seasonal growth throughout the watershed as river herring populations continue to rebound in response to dam removal. Our results provide insight into the diet and growth of Smallmouth Bass in a large New England river, and provide a foundation for future work investigating unfolding changes to these characteristics following recent dam removals.

Maine↗

USGS2018

Dam Removal and Fish Passage Improvement Influence Fish Assemblages in the Penobscot River, Maine

Dams and their impoundments disrupt river habitat connectivity to the detriment of migratory fishes. Removal of dams improves riverine connectivity and lotic habitat, which benefits not only these fishes but also resident fluvial specialist species. Restoration efforts on the Penobscot River, Maine, are among the largest recently completed in the United States and include the removal of the two lowermost dams and improvements to fish passage at several remaining barriers. We assessed fish assemblages in the main‐stem river and several major tributaries before (2010–2012) and after (2014–2016) dam removal using boat electrofishing surveys and a stratified random sampling design. In total, we sampled 303 km of shoreline and captured 107,335 individual fish representing 39 species. Similarity indices and rarefaction curves indicated that significant changes in fish assemblage composition occurred in reaches that underwent both habitat and connectivity changes (i.e., directly above removed dams). The newly connected reaches became more similar in fish assemblage composition, as demonstrated by an average increase of 31% in similarity scores. The changes in similarity score in these reaches were driven by increasing access for anadromous fishes and decreasing abundances of slow‐water specialist species. For example, we observed a marked reduction in lacustrine species in former impoundments. These assemblage shifts were further illustrated by nonmetric multidimensional scaling in which sites directly above former dams exhibited the largest ordinal shifts immediately following dam removal. We also found all anadromous species in greatest abundance below the lowermost dam during each respective sampling period, though we did find some anadromous species above the lowermost dam during postremoval sampling. Our results demonstrate the potential for large dam removal projects to restore both fluvial and anadromous fish assemblages.

Maine↗

USGS2013

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Fisheries↗

USGS2012

Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

P artitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin↗

USGS2002

Measurement error associated with surveys of fish abundance in Lake Michigan

In fisheries, imprecise measurements in catch data from surveys add uncertainty to the results of fishery stock assessments. The USGS Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC) began to survey the fall fish community of Lake Michigan in 1962 with bottom trawls. The measurement error was evaluated at the level of individual tows for nine fish species collected in this survey by applying a measurementerror regression model to replicated trawl data. It was found that the estimates of measurement-error variance ranged from 0.37 (deepwater sculpin, Myoxocephalus thompsoni ) to 1.23 (alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus ) on a logarithmic scale corresponding to a coefficient of variation = 66 to 156%. The estimates appeared to increase with the range of temperature occupied by the fish species. This association may be a result of the variability in the fall thermal structure of the lake. The estimates may also be influenced by other factors, such as pelagic behavior and schooling. Measurement error might be reduced by surveying the fish community during other seasons and/or by using additional technologies, such as acoustics. Measurement-error estimates should be considered when interpreting results of assessments that use abundance information from USGS-GLSC surveys of Lake Michigan and could be used if the survey design was altered. This study is the first to report estimates of measurement-error variance associated with this survey.

Lake Michigan↗