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Daniel B. Fagre

Publications and source records attributed to Daniel B. Fagre.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Protected area management

Designated protected areas are diverse in scope and purpose and have expanded from Yellowstone National Park in the United States, the world’s first national park, to 157,897 parks and protected areas distributed globally. Most are publicly owned and serve multiple needs that reflect regional or national cultures. With ever-increasing threats to the integrity of protected areas, managers are turning to flexible management practices such as scenario planning and adaptive management.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Using structure from motion photogrammetry to examine glide snow avalanches

Structure from Motion (SfM), a photogrammetric technique, has been used extensively and successfully in many fields including geosciences over the past few years to create 3D models and high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from aerial or oblique photographs. SfM has recently been used in a limited capacity in snow avalanche research and shows promise as a tool for broader applications. In this study, we used SfM to examine glide avalanches along the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR) corridor in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. Glide avalanches pose substantial hazard to railroads, highways, and other infrastructure in many avalanche prone regions around the world, and yet basic measurements of crown depth and ground/snow interface can be hard to observe. Along the GTSR, glide avalanches can impact worker and public safety, but accessing glide avalanche crowns or glide cracks is often prohibited by inaccessible terrain or residual avalanche hazard. We used SfM techniques to derive high resolution DEMs for four glide avalanches that occurred in the spring of 2016. This allowed us to estimate selected full depth glide avalanche dimensions without visiting the site. However, our analysis was limited to qualitative assessments of the glide avalanche dimensions as the high resolution coordinates necessary to analyze the vertical dimension of avalanche crowns were not available. Despite this, our results suggest SfM can be a robust tool for examining glide avalanche crowns and of sufficient resolution to accurately characterize glide avalanche dimensions. Under a warming and more variable future climate, glide avalanches could become a more prevalent problem, and using SfM as a tool to help characterize glide avalanches over a larger spatial area will help us to better document and further understand these phenomena.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2015

Floristic similarity, diversity and endemism as indicators of refugia characteristics and needs in the West

The floras of mountain ranges, and their similarity, beta diversity and endemism, are indicative of processes of community assembly; they are also the initial conditions for coming disassembly and reassembly in response to climate change. As such, these characteristics can inform thinking on refugia. The published floras or approximations for 42 mountain ranges in the three major mountain systems (Sierra-Cascades, Rocky Mountains and Great Basin ranges) across the western USA and southwestern Canada were analysed. The similarity is higher among the ranges of the Rockies while equally low among the ranges of the Sierra-Cascades and Great Basin. Mantel correlations of similarity with geographic distance are also higher for the Rocky Mountains. Endemism is relatively high, but is highest in the Sierra-Cascades (due to the Sierra Nevada as the single largest range) and lowest in the Great Basin, where assemblages are allochthonous. These differences indicate that the geologic substrates of the Cascade volcanoes, which are much younger than any others, play a role in addition to geographic isolation in community assembly. The pattern of similarity and endemism indicates that the ranges of the Cascades will not function well as stepping stones and the endemic species that they harbor may need more protection than those of the Rocky Mountains. The geometry of the ranges is complemented by geology in setting the stage for similarity and the potential for refugia across the West. Understanding the geographic template as initial conditions for the future can guide the forecast of refugia and related monitoring or protection efforts.

Biodiversity↗
USGS2015

Terrain parameters of glide snow avalanches and a simple spatial glide snow avalanche model

Glide snow avalanches are dangerous and difficult to predict. Despite substantial recent research there is still inadequate understanding regarding the controls of glide snow avalanche release. Glide snow avalanches often occur in similar terrain or the same locations annually, and repeat observations and prior work suggest that specific topography may be critical. Thus, to gain a better understanding of the terrain component of these types of avalanches we examined terrain parameters associated with the specific area of glide snow avalanche release in comparison to avalanche starting zones where no glide snow avalanches were observed (i.e. non-glide snow avalanche terrain). Glide snow avalanche occurrences visible from the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor in Glacier National Park, Montana from 2003 to 2013 are investigated using a database of all avalanche occurrences derived of daily observations each year from 1 April to 1 June. This yielded 192 glide snow avalanches in 53 distinct avalanche paths. Each avalanche was digitized in a GIS using satellite, oblique, and aerial imagery as reference. A set of 117 non-glide snow avalanche starting zones were also selected in this manner. These were start zones with avalanche activity potential, but without glide avalanches observed. Topographical parameters such as area, slope, aspect, curvature, potential incoming solar radiation, distance from ridge, and elevation were then derived for the entire dataset utilizing tools with a GIS and a 10 m DEM. Ground class and a glide factor were calculated using a four level classification index with in-situ observations and a land surface type layer in a GIS. A total of 21 terrain variables were examined using a univariate analysis between areas where glide snow avalanches occurred and areas where glide snow avalanches were never observed, despite crack formation. Only two variables were not significantly different. The significantly different variables were then used to train a classification tree to distinguish between glide and non-glide snow avalanche terrain. A 10-fold cross validated tree resulted in four decision nodes to classify the data. The nodes split on glide factor, maximum slope angle, seasonal sum of incoming solar radiation, and maximum curvature to distinguish between glide snow avalanche and non-glide snow avalanche terrain with an unweighted average accuracy (RPC) of 0.95 and probability of detection of events (POD) of 0.99. Finally, the results of the cross-validated tree were used in a GIS to examine other areas, not used in the training dataset of the classification tree, of potential glide snow avalanche release within Glacier National Park. Using this understanding of the role of topographic parameters on glide snow avalanche activity, a spatial terrain based model was developed to identify other areas with high glide snow avalanche potential outside of the immediate observation area. This simple spatial model correctly classified 78 percent of actual glide snow avalanche terrain (pixel count) of a small test area of four independent observed glide snow avalanches.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Climate change and the Rocky Mountains

Rural landscapes in the Andes are characterized by an impressive diversity of natural environments and by multiple resource assets. This is particularly the case in the tropical realm where the ecological altitudinal zones of the tierra caliente, the tierra templada, the tierra fria and the tierra helada offer a remarkable range of agricultural potential. This is complemented by a multitude of topographic, hydrographic and climatic niches. The landscape is further overlaid by a cultural mosaic and by the recent impact of political ecology parameters. These agricultural ‘archipelagos’ and ‘overlapping patchworks’ (Zimmerer 1999) of human utilization also represent fragile and potentially vulnerable regions exposed to environmental risks and to socioeconomic or political threats. The external natural and human stimulators or stressors affecting the environment and people are complemented by new challenges and changes within the rural societies. Thus, farming and human settlement in the Andes have millennia tradition of an ‘open’ rural system, constantly adapting to an array of changing environmental, political, cultural, social and economic conditions (Stadel 2003b, Stadel 2008).

Rocky Mountains↗
USGS2014

Simulating future residential property losses from wildfire in Flathead County, Montana

Wildfire damages to private residences in the United States and elsewhere have increased as a result of expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and other factors. Understanding this unwelcome trend requires analytical frameworks that simulate how various interacting social, economic, and biophysical factors influence those damages. A methodological framework is developed for simulating expected residential property losses from wildfire [E(RLW)], which is a probabilistic monetary measure of wildfire risk to residential properties in the WUI. E(RLW) is simulated for Flathead County, Montana for five, 10-year subperiods covering the period 2010-2059, under various assumptions about future climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management. Results show statistically significant increases in the spatial extent of WUI properties, the number of residential structures at risk from wildfire, and E(RLW) over the 50-year evaluation period for both the county and smaller subareas (i.e., neighborhoods and parcels). The E(RLW) simulation framework presented here advances the field of wildfire risk assessment by providing a finer-scale tool that incorporates a set of dynamic, interacting processes. The framework can be applied using other scenarios for climate change, economic growth, land use policy, and forest management, and in other areas.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Assessing the importance of terrain parameters on glide avalanche release

Glide snow avalanches are dangerous and difficult to predict. Despite recent research there is still a lack of understanding regarding the controls of glide avalanche release. Glide avalanches often occur in similar terrain or the same locations annually and observations suggest that topography may be critical. Thus, to gain an understanding of the terrain component of these types of avalanches we examined terrain parameters associated with glide avalanche release as well as areas of consistent glide crack formation but no subsequent avalanches. Glide avalanche occurrences visible from the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor in Glacier National Park, Montana from 2003-2013 were investigated using an avalanche database derived of daily observations each year from April 1 to June 15. This yielded 192 glide avalanches in 53 distinct avalanche paths. Each avalanche occurrence was digitized in a GIS using satellite, oblique, and aerial imagery as reference. Topographical parameters such as area, slope, aspect, elevation and elevation were then derived for the entire dataset utilizing GIS tools and a 10m DEM. Land surface substrate and surface geology were derived from National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring maps and U.S. Geological Survey surface geology maps, respectively. Surface roughness and glide factor were calculated using a four level classification index. . Then, each avalanche occurrence was aggregated to general avalanche release zones and the frequencies were compared. For this study, glide avalanches released in elevations ranging from 1300 to 2700 m with a mean aspect of 98 degrees (east) and a mean slope angle of 38 degrees. The mean profile curvature for all glide avalanches was 0.15 and a plan curvature of -0.01, suggesting a fairly linear surface (i.e. neither convex nor concave). The glide avalanches occurred in mostly bedrock made up of dolomite and limestone slabs and talus deposits with very few occurring in alpine meadows. However, not all glide avalanches failed as cohesive slabs on this bedrock surface. Consequently, surface roughness proved to be a useful descriptive variable to discriminate between slopes that avalanched and those that did not. Annual 'repeat offender' glide avalanche paths were characterized by smooth outcropping rock plates with stratification planes parallel to the slope. Combined with aspect these repeat offenders were also members of the highest glide category. Using this understanding of the role of topographic parameters on glide avalanche activity, a spatial terrain based model was developed to identify other areas with high glide avalanche potential outside of our immediate observation area.

Montana↗
USGS2013

Spatial contexts for temporal variability in alpine vegetation under ongoing climate change

A framework to monitor mountain summit vegetation (The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments, GLORIA) was initiated in 1997. GLORIA results should be taken within a regional context of the spatial variability of alpine tundra. Changes observed at GLORIA sites in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA are quantified within the context of the range of variability observed in alpine tundra across much of western North America. Dissimilarity is calculated and used in nonmetric multidimensional scaling for repeated measures of vascular species cover at 14 GLORIA sites with 525 nearby sites and with 436 sites in western North America. The lengths of the trajectories of the GLORIA sites in ordination space are compared to the dimensions of the space created by the larger datasets. The absolute amount of change on the GLORIA summits over 5 years is high, but the degree of change is small relative to the geographical context. The GLORIA sites are on the margin of the ordination volumes with the large datasets. The GLORIA summit vegetation appears to be specialized, arguing for the intrinsic value of early observed change in limited niche space.

Montana↗
USGS2013

Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics

Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change.

Physical Geography↗
USGS2013

Contexts for change in alpine tundra

Because alpine tundra is responding to climate change, a need exists to understand the meaning of observed changes. To provide context for such interpretation, the relevance of niche and neutral theories of biogeography and the continuum and classification approaches to biogeographic description are assessed. Two extensive studies of alpine tundra, from the Indian Peaks area, Colorado and Glacier National Park, Montana, are combined. The data are ordinated to describe relations. The pattern that emerges is one of a continuum of vegetation, but with the distinctions one might expect from distant sites. The relationships of the similarity of vegetation on all possible pairs of sites to the environmental differences and geographic distances are analyzed using Mantel correlations. Because distance and environmental differences in climate between the two sites are correlated, partial correlations are weak but still significant. More advanced analyses are suggested for this environment prior to interpretation of monitoring efforts such as GLORIA.

Colorado, Montana↗
USGS2013

Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗
USGS2012

Analysis of ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar data of frozen lakes in northern Montana and implications for climate studies

Lakes that freeze each winter are good indicators of regional climate change if key parameters, such as freeze-up and breakup date and maximum ice thickness, are measured over a decade-scale time frame. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data have proven to be especially useful for measurement of climatologically significant parameters characteristic of frozen lakes. In this paper, five lakes in Glacier National Park, Montana, have been studied both in the field and using Earth Remote-Sensing Satellite (ERS) 1 SAR data during the 1992-1993 winter. The lakes are characterized by clear ice, sometimes with tubular or rounded bubbles, and often with a layer of snow ice on top of the clear ice. They are also often snow covered. Freeze-up is detected quite easily using ERS 1 SAR data as soon as a thin layer of ice forms. The effect of snow ice on the backscatter is thought to be significant but is, as yet, undetermined. On the five lakes studied, relative backscatter was found to increase with ice thickness until a maximum was reached in February. Breakup, an often ill-defined occurrence, is difficult to detect because surface water causes the SAR signal to be absorbed, thus masking the ice below. Comparison of the bubble structure of thaw lakes in northern Alaska with lakes in northern Montana has shown that the ice structure is quite different, and this difference may contribute to differential SAR signature evolution in the lakes of the two areas.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2012

Examining spring wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence along the Going-to-the-Sun Road corridor, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Wet slab and glide snow avalanches are dangerous and yet can be particularly difficult to predict. Wet slab and glide avalanches are presumably triggered by free water moving through the snowpack and the subsequent interaction with layer or ground interfaces, and typically occur in the spring during warming and subsequent melt periods. In Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana, both types of avalanches can occur in the same year and affect the spring opening operations of the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR). We investigated the timing of wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence along the GTSR from 2003 to 2011 using meteorological and snowpack data from two high-elevation weather stations, one SNOTEL site, and an avalanche database to characterize 55 wet slab and 182 glide avalanches. Daily wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence were combined to represent an avalanche day and were compared to non-avalanche days (no avalanche occurrence) for 60 variables (both direct and derived measurements) using a univariate analysis. A classification tree (CART) was then trained to capture the most important variables for examining specific meteorological and snowpack variables that contribute to these types of wet snow avalanches. The CART was 10-fold cross validated using the data for 2003–2010 seasons and resulted in overall predictive accuracy of 73%. We then used the statistically optimal CART as a predictive model for the spring avalanche season of 2011, which resulted in an overall predictive accuracy of 82% for both avalanche and non-avalanche days, and a predictive accuracy of 91% for avalanche days. The results suggest that the role of air temperature and snowpack settlement appear to be the most important variables in wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence. When applied to the 2011 season, the results of the CART model are encouraging and they enhance our understanding of some of the required meteorological and snowpack conditions for wet slab and glide avalanche occurrence.

Cold Regions Science and Technology↗
USGS2012

Time lapse photography as an approach to understanding glide avalanche activity

Avalanches resulting from glide cracks are notoriously difficult to forecast, but are a recurring problem for numerous avalanche forecasting programs. In some cases glide cracks are observed to open and then melt away in situ. In other cases, they open and then fail catastrophically as large, full-depth avalanches. Our understanding and management of these phenomena are currently limited. It is thought that an increase in the rate of snow gliding occurs prior to full-depth avalanche activity so frequent observation of glide crack movement can provide an index of instability. During spring 2011 in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, we began an approach to track glide crack avalanche activity using a time-lapse camera focused on a southwest facing glide crack. This crack melted in-situ without failing as a glide avalanche, while other nearby glide cracks on north through southeast aspects failed. In spring 2012, a camera was aimed at a large and productive glide crack adjacent to the Going to the Sun Road. We captured three unique glide events in the field of view. Unfortunately, all of them either failed very quickly, or during periods of obscured view, so measurements of glide rate could not be obtained. However, we compared the hourly meteorological variables during the period of glide activity to the same variables prior to glide activity. The variables air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, incoming and reflected long wave radiation, SWE, total precipitation, and snow depth were found to be statistically different for our cases examined. We propose that these are some of the potential precursors for glide avalanche activity, but do urge caution in their use, due to the simple approach and small data set size. It is hoped that by introducing a workable method to easily record glide crack movement, combined with ongoing analysis of the associated meteorological data, we will improve our understanding of when, or if, glide avalanche activity will ensue.

Montana↗
USGS2012

Timing of wet snow avalanche activity: An analysis from Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.

Wet snow avalanches pose a problem for annual spring road opening operations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR) in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. A suite of meteorological metrics and snow observations has been used to forecast for wet slab and glide avalanche activity. However, the timing of spring wet slab and glide avalanches is a difficult process to forecast and requires new capabilities. For the 2011 and 2012 spring seasons we tested a previously developed classification tree model which had been trained on data from 2003-2010. For 2011, this model yielded a 91% predictive rate for avalanche days. For 2012, the model failed to capture any of the avalanche days observed. We then investigated these misclassified avalanche days in the 2012 season by comparing them to the misclassified days from the original dataset from which the model was trained. Results showed no significant difference in air temperature variables between this year and the original training data set for these misclassified days. This indicates that 2012 was characterized by avalanche days most similar to those that the model struggled with in the original training data. The original classification tree model showed air temperature to be a significant variable in wet avalanche activity which implies that subsequent movement of meltwater through the snowpack is also important. To further understand the timing of water flow we installed two lysimeters in fall 2011 before snow accumulation. Water flow showed a moderate correlation with air temperature later in the season and no synchronous pattern associated with wet slab and glide avalanche activity. We also characterized snowpack structure as the snowpack transitioned from a dry to a wet snowpack throughout the spring. This helped to assess potential failure layers of wet snow avalanches and the timing of avalanches compared to water moving through the snowpack. These tools (classification tree model and lysimeter data), combined with standard meteorological and avalanche observations, proved useful to forecasters regarding the timing of wet snow avalanche activity along the GTSR.

Montana↗
USGS2011

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—themeltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic toWaterton- Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (∼500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.

Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park↗
USGS2011

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities.

Idaho, Montana↗