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Dale M. Robertson

Publications and source records attributed to Dale M. Robertson.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Reducing nitrogen export from the corn belt to the Gulf of Mexico: agricultural strategies for remediating hypoxia

SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed models developed for the Upper Midwest were used to help evaluate the nitrogen-load reductions likely to be achieved by a variety of agricultural conservation practices in the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB) and to compare these reductions to the 45% nitrogen-load reduction proposed to remediate hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Our results indicate that nitrogen-management practices (improved fertilizer management and cover crops) fall short of achieving this goal, even if adopted on all cropland in the region. The goal of a 45% decrease in loads to the GoM can only be achieved through the coupling of nitrogen-management practices with innovative nitrogen-removal practices such as tile-drainage treatment wetlands, drainage–ditch enhancements, stream-channel restoration, and floodplain reconnection. Combining nitrogen-management practices with nitrogen-removal practices can dramatically reduce nutrient export from agricultural landscapes while minimizing impacts to agricultural production. With this approach, it may be possible to meet the 45% nutrient reduction goal while converting less than 1% of cropland in the UMORB to nitrogen-removal practices. Conservationists, policy makers, and agricultural producers seeking a workable strategy to reduce nitrogen export from the Corn Belt will need to consider a combination of nitrogen-management practices at the field scale and diverse nitrogen-removal practices at the landscape scale.

Ohio River Basin, Upper Mississippi River Basin↗
USGS2014

Spatial variability in nutrient transport by HUC8, state, and subbasin based on Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin SPARROW models

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. With geospatial datasets for 2002, including inputs from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and monitored loads throughout the MARB, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) watershed models were constructed specifically for the MARB, which reduced simulation errors from previous models. Based on these models, N loads/yields were highest from the central part (centered over Iowa and Indiana) of the MARB (Corn Belt), and the highest P yields were scattered throughout the MARB. Spatial differences in yields from previous studies resulted from different descriptions of the dominant sources (N yields are highest with crop-oriented agriculture and P yields are highest with crop and animal agriculture and major WWTPs) and different descriptions of downstream transport. Delivered loads/yields from the MARB SPARROW models are used to rank subbasins, states, and eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins (HUC8s) by N and P contributions and then rankings are compared with those from other studies. Changes in delivered yields result in an average absolute change of 1.3 (N) and 1.9 (P) places in state ranking and 41 (N) and 69 (P) places in HUC8 ranking from those made with previous national-scale SPARROW models. This information may help managers decide where efforts could have the largest effects (highest ranked areas) and thus reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

Atchafalaya River;Gulf Of Mexico;Mississippi River↗
USGS2013

Effects of lakes and reservoirs on annual river nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment export in agricultural and forested landscapes

Recently, effects of lakes and reservoirs on river nutrient export have been incorporated into landscape biogeochemical models. Because annual export varies with precipitation, there is a need to examine the biogeochemical role of lakes and reservoirs over time frames that incorporate interannual variability in precipitation. We examined long-term (~20 years) time series of river export (annual mass yield, Y, and flow-weighted mean annual concentration, C) for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) from 54 catchments in Wisconsin, USA. Catchments were classified as small agricultural, large agricultural, and forested by use of a cluster analysis, and these varied in lentic coverage (percentage of catchment lake or reservoir water that was connected to river network). Mean annual export and interannual variability (CV) of export (for both Y and C) were higher in agricultural catchments relative to forested catchments for TP, TN, and TSS. In both agricultural and forested settings, mean and maximum annual TN yields were lower in the presence of lakes and reservoirs, suggesting lentic denitrification or N burial. There was also evidence of long-term lentic TP and TSS retention, especially when viewed in terms of maximum annual yield, suggesting sedimentation during high loading years. Lentic catchments had lower interannual variability in export. For TP and TSS, interannual variability in mass yield was often >50% higher than interannual variability in water yield, whereas TN variability more closely followed water (discharge) variability. Our results indicate that long-term mass export through rivers depends on interacting terrestrial, aquatic, and meteorological factors in which the presence of lakes and reservoirs can reduce the magnitude of export, stabilize interannual variability in export, as well as introduce export time lags.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2013

SPARROW models used to understand nutrient sources in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. To describe where and from what sources those loads originate, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were constructed for the MARB using geospatial datasets for 2002, including inputs from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and calibration sites throughout the MARB. Previous studies found that highest N and P yields were from the north-central part of the MARB (Corn Belt). Based on the MARB SPARROW models, highest N yields were still from the Corn Belt but centered over Iowa and Indiana, and highest P yields were widely distributed throughout the center of the MARB. Similar to that found in other studies, agricultural inputs were found to be the largest N and P sources throughout most of the MARB: farm fertilizers were the largest N source, whereas farm fertilizers, manure, and urban inputs were dominant P sources. The MARB models enable individual N and P sources to be defined at scales ranging from SPARROW catchments (∼50 km 2 ) to the entire area of the MARB. Inputs of P from WWTPs and urban areas were more important than found in most other studies. Information from this study will help to reduce nutrient loading from the MARB by providing managers with a description of where each of the sources of N and P are most important, thus providing a basis for prioritizing management actions and ultimately reducing the extent of Gulf hypoxia.

Mississippi/atchafalaya River Basin↗
USGS2013

Effects of future urban and biofuel crop expansions on the riverine export of phosphorus to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Increased phosphorus (P) loadings threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL). To understand the linkages between land use and P delivery, we coupled two spatially explicit models, the landscape-scale SPARROW P fate and transport watershed model and the Land Transformation Model (LTM) land use change model, to predict future P export from nonpoint and point sources caused by changes in land use. According to LTM predictions over the period 2010–2040, the GL region of the U.S. may experience a doubling of urbanized areas and agricultural areas may increase by 10%, due to biofuel feedstock cultivation. These land use changes are predicted to increase P loadings from the U.S. side of the GL basin by 3.5–9.5%, depending on the Lake watershed and development scenario. The exception is Lake Ontario, where loading is predicted to decrease by 1.8% for one scenario, due to population losses in the drainage area. Overall, urban expansion is estimated to increase P loadings by 3.4%. Agricultural expansion associated with predicted biofuel feedstock cultivation is predicted to increase P loadings by an additional 2.4%. Watersheds that export P most efficiently and thus are the most vulnerable to increases in P sources tend to be found along southern Lake Ontario, southeastern Lake Erie, western Lake Michigan, and southwestern Lake Superior where watershed areas are concentrated along the coastline with shorter flow paths. In contrast, watersheds with high soil permeabilities, fractions of land underlain by tile drains, and long distances to the GL are less vulnerable.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2013

Refinement of regression models to estimate real-time concentrations of contaminants in the Menomonee River drainage basin, southeast Wisconsin, 2008-11

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District initiated a study to develop regression models to estimate real-time concentrations and loads of chloride, suspended solids, phosphorus, and bacteria in streams near Milwaukee, Wisconsin. To collect monitoring data for calibration of models, water-quality sensors and automated samplers were installed at six sites in the Menomonee River drainage basin. The sensors continuously measured four potential explanatory variables: water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for five response variables: chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, Escherichia coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria. Using the first year of data, regression models were developed to continuously estimate the response variables on the basis of the continuously measured explanatory variables. Those models were published in a previous report. In this report, those models are refined using 2 years of additional data, and the relative improvement in model predictability is discussed. In addition, a set of regression models is presented for a new site in the Menomonee River Basin, Underwood Creek at Wauwatosa. The refined models use the same explanatory variables as the original models. The chloride models all used specific conductance as the explanatory variable, except for the model for the Little Menomonee River near Freistadt, which used both specific conductance and turbidity. Total suspended solids and total phosphorus models used turbidity as the only explanatory variable, and bacteria models used water temperature and turbidity as explanatory variables. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), used to compare the coefficients in the original models to those in the refined models calibrated using all of the data, showed that only 3 of the 25 original models changed significantly. Root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) calculated for both the original and refined models using the entire dataset showed a median improvement in RMSE of 2.1 percent, with a range of 0.0–13.9 percent. Therefore most of the original models did almost as well at estimating concentrations during the validation period (October 2009–September 2011) as the refined models, which were calibrated using those data. Application of these refined models can produce continuously estimated concentrations of chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, E. coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria that may assist managers in quantifying the effects of land-use changes and improvement projects, establish total maximum daily loads, and enable better informed decision making in the future.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2013

Hydrology and water quality of Shell Lake, Washburn County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of diversion and changes in water level on the water quality of a shallow terminal lake

Shell Lake is a relatively shallow terminal lake (tributaries but no outlets) in northwestern Wisconsin that has experienced approximately 10 feet (ft) of water-level fluctuation over more than 70 years of record and extensive flooding of nearshore areas starting in the early 2000s. The City of Shell Lake (City) received a permit from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources in 2002 to divert water from the lake to a nearby river in order to lower water levels and reduce flooding. Previous studies suggested that water-level fluctuations were driven by long-term cycles in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, although questions about the lake’s connection with the groundwater system remained. The permit required that the City evaluate assumptions about lake/groundwater interactions made in previous studies and evaluate the effects of the water diversion on water levels in Shell Lake and other nearby lakes. Therefore, a cooperative study between the City and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) was initiated to improve the understanding of the hydrogeology of the area and evaluate potential effects of the diversion on water levels in Shell Lake, the surrounding groundwater system, and nearby lakes. Concerns over deteriorating water quality in the lake, possibly associated with changes in water level, prompted an additional cooperative project between the City and the USGS to evaluate efeffects of changes in nutrient loading associated with changes in water levels on the water quality of Shell Lake. Numerical models were used to evaluate how the hydrology and water quality responded to diversion of water from the lake and historical changes in the watershed. The groundwater-flow model MODFLOW was used to simulate groundwater movement in the area around Shell Lake, including groundwater/surface-water interactions. Simulated results from the MODFLOW model indicate that groundwater flows generally northward in the area around Shell Lake, with flow locally converging toward the lake. Total groundwater inflow to Shell Lake is small (approximately 5 percent of the water budget) compared with water entering the lake from precipitation (83 percent) and surface-water runoff (13 percent). The MODFLOW model also was used to simulate average annual hydrologic conditions from 1949 to 2009, including effects of the removal of 3 billion gallons of water during 2003–5. The maximum decline in simulated average annual water levels for Shell Lake due to the diversion alone was 3.3 ft at the end of the diversion process in 2005. Model simulations also indicate that although water level continued to decline through 2009 in response to local weather patterns (local drought), the effects of the diversion decreased after the diversion ceased; that is, after 4 years of recovery (2006–9), drawdown attributable to the diversion alone decreased by about 0.6 ft because of increased groundwater inflow and decreased lake-water outflow to groundwater caused by the artificially lower lake level. A delayed response in drawdown of less than 0.5 ft was transmitted through the groundwater-flow system to upgradient lakes. This relatively small effect on upgradient lakes is attributed in part to extensive layers of shallow clay that limit lake/groundwater interaction in the area. Data collected in the lake indicated that Shell Lake is polymictic (characterized by frequent deep mixing) and that its productivity is limited by the amount of phosphorus in the lake. The lake was typically classified as oligotrophic-mesotrophic in June, mesotrophic in July, and mesotrophic-eutrophic in August. In polymictic lakes like Shell Lake, phosphorus released from the sediments is not trapped near the bottom of the lake but is intermittently released to the shallow water, resulting in deteriorating water quality as summer progresses. Because the productivity of Shell Lake is limited by phosphorus, the sources of phosphorus to the lake were quantified, and the response in water quality to changes in phosphorus inputs were evaluated by means of eutrophication models. During 2009, the total input of phosphorus to Shell Lake was 1,730 pounds (lb), of which 1,320 lb came from external sources (76 percent) and 414 lb came from internal loading from sediments in the lake (24 percent). The largest external source was from surface-water runoff, which delivered about 52 percent of the total phosphorus load compared with about 13 percent of the water input. The second largest source was from precipitation (wetfall and dryfall), which delivered 19 percent of the load compared to about 83 percent of the water input. Contributions from septic systems and groundwater accounted for about 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Increased runoff raises water levels in the lake but does not necessarily increase phosphorus loading because phosphorus concentrations in the tributaries decline during increased flow, possibly because of shorter retention times in upstream wetlands. Phosphorus loading to the lake in 2009 represented what occurred after a series of dry years; therefore, this information was combined with data from 2011, a wet year, to estimate phosphorus loading during a range of hydrologic conditions by estimating loading from each component of the phosphorus budget for each year from 1949 to 2011. Comparisons of historical water-quality records with historical water levels and applications of a hydrodynamic model (Dynamic Lake Model, DLM) and empirical eutrophication models were used to understand how changes in water level and the coinciding changes in phosphorus loading affect the water quality of Shell Lake. DLM simulations indicate that large changes in water level (approximately 10 ft) affect the persistence of stratification in the lake. During periods with low water levels, the lake is a well-mixed, polymictic system, with water quality degrading slightly as summer progresses. During periods with high water levels, the lake is more stratified, and phosphorus from internal loading is trapped in the hypolimnion and released later in summer, which results in more extreme seasonality in water quality and better clarity in early summer. Results of eutrophication model simulations using a range in external phosphorus inputs illustrate how water quality in Shell Lake (phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations and Secchi depths) responds to changes in external phosphorus loading. Results indicate that a 50-percent reduction in external loading from that measured in 2009 would be required to change phosphorus concentrations from 0.018 milligram per liter (mg/L) (measured in 2009) to 0.012 mg/L (estimated for the mid-1800s from analysis of diatoms in sediment cores). Such reductions in phosphorus loading cannot be accomplished by targeting septic systems or internal loading alone because septic systems contribute only about 3 percent of the phosphorus input to the lake, and internal loading from the sediments of Shell Lake contributes only about 25 percent of phosphorus input. Complete elimination of phosphorus from septic systems and internal loading would decrease the phosphorus concentrations in the lake by 0.003–0.004 mg/L. Therefore, reducing phosphorus concentration in the lake more than by 0.004 mg/L requires decreasing phosphorus loading from surface-water contributions, primarily runoff to the lake. Reconstructed changes in water quality from 1860 to 2010, based on changes in the diatom communities archived in the sediments and eutrophication model simulations, suggest that anthropogenic changes in the watershed (sawmill construction in 1881; the establishment of the village of Shell Lake; and land-use changes in the 1920s, including increased agriculture) had a much larger effect on water quality than the natural changes associated with fluctuations in water level. Although the effects of natural changes in water level on water quality appear to be small, changes in water level do have a modest effect on water quality, primarily manifested as small improvements during higher water levels. Fluctuations in water level, however, have a larger effect on the seasonality of water-quality patterns, with better water quality, especially increased Secchi depths, in early summer during years with high water levels.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

Use of real-time monitoring to predict concentrations of select constituents in the Menomonee River drainage basin, Southeast Wisconsin, 2008-9

The Menomonee River drainage basin in southeast Wisconsin is undergoing changes that may affect water quality. Several rehabilitation and flood-management projects are underway, including removal of concrete channels and the construction of floodwater retention basins. The city of Waukesha may begin discharging treated wastewater into Underwood Creek, thus approximately doubling the current base-flow discharge. In addition, the headwater basins, historically dominated by agriculture and natural areas, are becoming increasingly urbanized. In an effort to monitor these and future changes to the basin, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District initiated a study in 2008 to develop regression models to estimate real-time concentrations and loads of selected water-quality constituents. Water-quality sensors and automated samplers were installed at five sites in the Menomonee River drainage basin. The sensors continuously measured four explanatory variables: water temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Discrete water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for five response variables: chloride, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, Escherichia coli bacteria, and fecal coliform bacteria. Regression models were developed to continuously estimate the response variables on the basis of the explanatory variables. The models to estimate chloride concentrations all used specific conductance as the explanatory variable, except for the model for the Little Menomonee River near Freistadt, which used both specific conductance and turbidity as explanatory variables. Adjusted R 2 values for the chloride models ranged from 0.74 to 0.97. Models to estimate total suspended solids and total phosphorus used turbidity as the only explanatory variable. Adjusted R 2 values ranged from 0.77 to 0.94 for the total suspended solids models and from 0.55 to 0.75 for the total phosphorus models. Models to estimate indicator bacteria used water temperature and turbidity as the explanatory variables, with adjusted R 2 values from 0.54 to 0.69 for Escherichia coli bacteria models and from 0.54 to 0.74 for fecal coliform bacteria models. Dissolved oxygen was not used in any of the final models. These models may help managers measure the effects of land-use changes and improvement projects, establish total maximum daily loads, estimate important water-quality indicators such as bacteria concentrations, and enable informed decision making in the future.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

Water quality, hydrology, and simulated response to changes in phosphorus loading of Mercer Lake, Iron County, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of wastewater discharges

Mercer Lake is a relatively shallow drainage lake in north-central Wisconsin. The area near the lake has gone through many changes over the past century, including urbanization and industrial development. To try to improve the water quality of the lake, actions have been taken, such as removal of the lumber mill and diversion of all effluent from the sewage treatment plant away from the lake; however, it is uncertain how these actions have affected water quality. Mercer Lake area residents and authorities would like to continue to try to improve the water quality of the lake; however, they would like to place their efforts in the actions that will have the most beneficial effects. To provide a better understanding of the factors affecting the water quality of Mercer Lake, a detailed study of the lake and its watershed was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in collaboration with the Mercer Lake Association. The purposes of the study were to describe the water quality of the lake and the composition of its sediments; quantify the sources of water and phosphorus loading to the lake, including sources associated with wastewater discharges; and evaluate the effects of past and future changes in phosphorus inputs on the water quality of the lake using eutrophication models (models that simulate changes in phosphorus and algae concentrations and water clarity in the lake). Based on analyses of sediment cores and monitoring data collected from the lake, the water quality of Mercer Lake appears to have degraded as a result of the activities in its watershed over the past 100 years. The water quality appears to have improved, however, since a sewage treatment plant was constructed in 1965 and its effluent was routed away from the lake in 1995. Since 2000, when a more consistent monitoring program began, the water quality of the lake appears to have changed very little. During the two monitoring years (MY) 2008-09, the average summer near-surface concentration of total phosphorus was 0.023 mg/L, indicating the lake is borderline mesotrophic-eutrophic, or has moderate to high concentrations of phosphorus, whereas the average summer chlorophyll a concentration was 3.3 mg/L and water clarity, as measured with a Secchi depth, was 10.4 ft, both indicating mesotrophic conditions or that the lake has a moderate amount of algae and water clarity. Although actions have been taken to eliminate the wastewater discharges, the bottom sediment still has slightly elevated concentrations of several pollutants from wastewater discharges, lumber operations, and roadway drainage, and a few naturally occurring metals (such as iron). None of the concentrations, however, were high enough above the defined thresholds to be of concern. Based on nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, the productivity (algal growth) in Mercer Lake should typically be limited by phosphorus; therefore, understanding the phosphorus input to the lake is important when management efforts to improve or prevent degradation of the lake water quality are considered. Total inputs of phosphorus to Mercer Lake were directly estimated for MY 2008-09 at about 340 lb/yr and for a recent year with more typical hydrology at about 475 lb/yr. During these years, the largest sources of phosphorus were from Little Turtle Inlet, which contributed about 45 percent, and the drainage area near the lake containing the adjacent urban and residential developments, which contributed about 24 percent. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant and septic systems and other untreated systems contributed nutrients to the watershed, phosphorus loadings were estimated to be about 71 percent higher than during around 2009. In 1965, a sewage treatment plant was built, but its effluent was released in the downstream end of the lake. Depending on various assumptions on how much effluent was retained in the lake, phosphorus inputs from wastewater may have ranged from 0 to 342 lb. Future highway and stormwater improvements have been identified in the Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project, and if they are done with the proposed best management practices, then phosphorus inputs to the lake may decrease by about 40 lb. Eutrophication models [Canfield and Bachman model (1981) and Carlson Trophic State Index equations (1977)] were used to predict how the water quality of Mercer Lake should respond to changes in phosphorus loading. A relatively linear response was found between phosphorus loading and phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the lake, with changes in phosphorus concentrations being slightly less (about 80 percent) and changes in chlorophyll a concentrations being slightly more (about 120 percent) than the changes in phosphorus loadings to the lake. Water clarity, indicated by Secchi depths, responded more to decreases in phosphorus loading than to increases in loading. Results from the eutrophication models indicated that the lake should have been negatively affected by the wastewater discharges. Prior to 1965, when there was no sewage treatment plant effluent and inputs from the septic systems and other untreated systems were thought to be high, the lake should have been eutrophic; near the surface, average phosphorus concentrations were almost 0.035 mg/L, chlorophyll a concentrations were about 7 μg/L, and Secchi depths were about 6 ft, which agreed with the shallower Secchi depths during this time estimated from the sediment-core analysis. The models indicated that between 1965 and 1995, when the lake retained some of the effluent from the new sewage treatment plant, water quality should have been between the conditions estimated prior to 1965 and what was expected during typical hydrologic conditions around MY 2008-09. The models also indicated that if the future Mercer Infrastructure Improvement Project is conducted with the best management practices as proposed, the water quality in the lake could improve slightly from that measured during 2006-10. Because of the small amount of phosphorus that is presently input into Mercer Lake any additional phosphorus added to the lake could degrade water quality; therefore, management actions can usefully focus on minimizing future phosphorus inputs. Phosphorus released from the sediments of a degraded lake often delays its response to decreases in external phosphorus loading, especially in shallow, frequently mixed systems. Mercer Lake, however, remains stratified throughout most of the summer, and phosphorus released from the sediments represents only about 6 percent, or a small fraction, of the total phosphorus load to the lake. Therefore, the phosphorus trapped in the sediments should minimally affect the long-term water quality of the lake and should not delay the response in its productivity to future changes in nutrient loading from its watershed.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

Estimation of natural historical flows for the Manitowish River near Manitowish Waters, Wisconsin

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources is charged with oversight of dam operations throughout Wisconsin and is considering modifications to the operating orders for the Rest Lake Dam in Vilas County, Wisconsin. State law requires that the operation orders be tied to natural low flows at the dam. Because the presence of the dam confounds measurement of natural flows, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, installed streamflow-gaging stations and developed two statistical methods to improve estimates of natural flows at the Rest Lake Dam. Two independent methods were used to estimate daily natural flow for the Manitowish River approximately 1 mile downstream of the Rest Lake Dam. The first method was an adjusted drainage-area ratio method, which used a regression analysis that related measured water yield (flow divided by watershed area) from short-term (2009–11) gaging stations upstream of the Manitowish Chain of Lakes to the water yield from two nearby long-term gaging stations in order to extend the flow record (1991–2011). In this approach, the computed flows into the Chain of Lakes at the upstream gaging stations were multiplied by a coefficient to account for the monthly hydrologic contributions (precipitation, evaporation, groundwater, and runoff) associated with the additional watershed area between the upstream gaging stations and the dam at the outlet of the Chain of Lakes (Rest Lake Dam). The second method used to estimate daily natural flow at the Rest Lake Dam was a water-budget approach, which used lake stage and dam outflow data provided by the dam operator. A water-budget model was constructed and then calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation program by matching simulated flow-duration statistics with measured flow-duration statistics at the upstream gaging stations. After calibration of the water-budget model, the model was used to compute natural flow at the dam from 1973 to 2011. Daily natural flows at the dam, as computed by the adjusted drainage-area ratio method and the water-budget method, were used to compute monthly flow-duration values for the period of historical data available for each method. Monthly flow-durations provide a means for evaluating the frequency and range in flows that have been observed for each month over the course of many years. Both methods described the pattern and timing of measured high-flow and low-flow events at the upstream gaging stations. The adjusted drainage-area ratio method generally had smaller residual errors across the full range of observed flows and had smaller monthly biases than the water-budget method. Although it is not possible to evaluate which method may be more "correct" for estimating monthly natural flows at the dam, comparisons between the results of each method indicate that the adjusted drainage-area ratio method may be susceptible to biases at high flows due to isolated storms outside of the Manitowish River watershed. Conversely, it appears that the water-budget method may be susceptible to biases at low flows because of its sensitivity to the accuracy of reported lake stage and outflows, as well as effects of upstream diversions that could not be fully compensated for with this method. Results from both methods are useful for understanding the natural flow patterns at the dam. Flows for both methods have similar patterns, with high median flows in spring and low median flows in late summer. Similarly, the range from monthly high-flow durations to low-flow durations increases during spring, decreases during summer, and increases again during fall. These seasonal patterns illustrate a challenge with interpreting a single value of natural low flow. That is, a natural low flow computed for September is not representative of a natural low flow in April. Moreover, alteration of natural flows caused by storing water in the Chain of Lakes during spring and releasing it in fall causes a change in the timing of high and low flows compared with natural conditions. That is, the lowest reported dam outflows occurred in spring and highest reported outflows occurred in fall, which is opposite the natural patterns.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Nutrient inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by source and watershed estimated using SPARROW watershed models

Nutrient input to the Laurentian Great Lakes continues to cause problems with eutrophication. To reduce the extent and severity of these problems, target nutrient loads were established and Total Maximum Daily Loads are being developed for many tributaries. Without detailed loading information it is difficult to determine if the targets are being met and how to prioritize rehabilitation efforts. To help address these issues, SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for estimating loads and sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) from the United States (U.S.) portion of the Great Lakes, Upper Mississippi, Ohio, and Red River Basins. Results indicated that recent U.S. loadings to Lakes Michigan and Ontario are similar to those in the 1980s, whereas loadings to Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie decreased. Highest loads were from tributaries with the largest watersheds, whereas highest yields were from areas with intense agriculture and large point sources of nutrients. Tributaries were ranked based on their relative loads and yields to each lake. Input from agricultural areas was a significant source of nutrients, contributing ∼33-44% of the P and ∼33-58% of the N, except for areas around Superior with little agriculture. Point sources were also significant, contributing ∼14-44% of the P and 13-34% of the N. Watersheds around Lake Erie contributed nutrients at the highest rate (similar to intensively farmed areas in the Midwest) because they have the largest nutrient inputs and highest delivery ratio.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗
USGS2011

A multi-agency nutrient dataset used to estimate loads, improve monitoring design, and calibrate regional nutrient SPARROW models

Stream-loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long-term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water-quality model, the flow-bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water-quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2011

Sedimentary phosphorus cycling and a phosphorus mass balance for the Green Bay (Lake Michigan) ecosystem

The tributaries of Green Bay have long been recognized as major sources of phosphorus in the Lake Michigan basin. The status of Green Bay as a sink or source of phosphorus for Lake Michigan proper has been less well defined. The bay receives nearly 70% of its annual load of phosphorus ( 700 metric tons (t) &middot; year-1) from a single source: the Fox River. Most of this phosphorus is deposited in sediments accumulating at rates that reach 160 mg &middot; cm-2 &middot; year-1 with an average of 20 mg &middot; cm-2 &middot; year-1. The phosphorus content of these sediments varies from <5 to >70 &micro;mol &middot; g-1. Deposition is highly focused, with ~70% of the total sediment accumulation and at least 80% of the phosphorus burial occurring within 20% of the surface area of the bay. Diagenetic and stoichiometric models of phosphorus cycling imply that >80% of the phosphorus deposited is permanently buried. External phosphorus loading to the bay is combined with sediment fluxes of phophorus to arrive at a simple phosphorus budget. Green Bay acts as an efficient nutrient trap, with the sediments retaining an estimated 70-90% of the external phosphorus inputs before flowing into Lake Michigan.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

Nutrient and sediment concentrations and corresponding loads during the historic June 2008 flooding in eastern Iowa

A combination of above-normal precipitation during the winter and spring of 2007-2008 and extensive rainfall during June 2008 led to severe flooding in many parts of the midwestern United States. This resulted in transport of substantial amounts of nutrients and sediment from Iowa basins into the Mississippi River. Water samples were collected from 31 sites on six large Iowa tributaries to the Mississippi River to characterize water quality and to quantify nutrient and sediment loads during this extreme discharge event. Each sample was analyzed for total nitrogen, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen, dissolved ammonia as nitrogen, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, and suspended sediment. Concentrations measured near peak flow in June 2008 were compared with the corresponding mean concentrations from June 1979 to 2007 using a paired t test. While there was no consistent pattern in concentrations between historical samples and those from the 2008 flood, increased flow during the flood resulted in near-peak June 2008 flood daily loads that were statistically greater (p < 0.05) than the median June 1979 to 2007 daily loads for all constituents. Estimates of loads for the 16-d period during the flood were calculated for four major tributaries and totaled 4.95 x 10(7) kg of nitrogen (N) and 2.9 x 10(6) kg of phosphorus (P) leaving Iowa, which accounted for about 22 and 46% of the total average annual nutrient yield, respectively. This study demonstrates the importance of large flood events to the total annual nutrient load in both small streams and large rivers.

Iowa↗
USGS2011

Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2011

USGS library for S-PLUS for Windows -- Release 4.0

Release 4.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey S-PLUS library supercedes release 2.1. It comprises functions, dialogs, and datasets used in the U.S. Geological Survey for the analysis of water-resources data. This version does not contain ESTREND, which was in version 2.1. See Release 2.1 for information and access to that version. This library requires Release 8.1 or later of S-PLUS for Windows. S-PLUS is a commercial statistical and graphical analysis software package produced by TIBCO corporation(http://www.tibco.com/). The USGS library is not supported by TIBCO or its technical support staff.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2011

Hydrology, phosphorus, and suspended solids in five agricultural streams in the Lower Fox River and Green Bay watersheds, Wisconsin, water years 2004-06

A 3-year study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay to characterize water quality in agricultural streams in the Fox/Wolf watershed in northeastern Wisconsin and provide information to assist in the calibration of a watershed model for the area. Streamflow, phosphorus, and suspended solids data were collected between October 1, 2003, and September 30, 2006, in five streams, including Apple Creek, Ashwaubenon Creek, Baird Creek, Duck Creek, and the East River. During this study, total annual precipitation was close to the 30-year normal of 29.12 inches. The 3-year mean streamflow was highest in the East River (113 ft 3 /s), followed by Duck Creek (58.2 ft 3 /s), Apple Creek (26.9 ft 3 /s), Baird Creek (12.8 ft 3 /s), and Ashwaubenon Creek (9.1 ft 3 /s). On a yield basis, during these three years, the East River had the highest flow (0.78 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), followed by Baird Creek (0.61 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), Apple Creek (0.59 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), Duck Creek (0.54 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ), and Ashwaubenon Creek (0.46 ft 3 /s/mi 2 ). The overall median total suspended solids (TSS) concentration was highest in Baird Creek (73.5 mg/L), followed by Apple and Ashwaubenon Creeks (65 mg/L), East River (40 mg/L), and Duck Creek (30 mg/L). The median total phosphorus (TP) concentration was highest in Ashwaubenon Creek (0.60 mg/L), followed by Baird Creek (0.47 mg/L), Apple Creek (0.37 mg/L), East River (0.26 mg/L), and Duck Creek (0.22 mg/L). The average annual TSS yields ranged from 111 tons/mi 2 in Apple Creek to 45 tons/mi2 in Duck Creek. All five watersheds yielded more TSS than the median value (32.4 tons/mi 2 ) from previous studies in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains (SWTP) ecoregion. The average annual TP yields ranged from 663 lbs/mi 2 in Baird Creek to 382 lbs/mi 2 in Duck Creek. All five watersheds yielded more TP than the median value from previous studies in the SWTP ecoregion, and the Baird Creek watershed yielded more TP than the statewide median of 650 lbs/mi 2 from previous studies.Overall, Duck Creek had the lowest median and volumetric weighted concentrations and mean yield of TSS and TP. The same pattern was true for dissolved phosphorus (DP), except the volumetrically weighted concentration was lowest in the East River. In contrast, Ashwaubenon, Baird, and Apple Creeks had greater median and volumetrically weighted concentrations and mean yields of TSS, TP, DP than Duck Creek and the East River. Water quality in Duck Creek and East River were distinctly different from Ashwaubenon, Baird, and Apple Creeks. Loads from individual runoff events for all of these streams were important to the total annual mass transport of the constituents. On average, about 20 percent of the annual TSS loads and about 17 percent of the TP loads were transported in 1-day events in each stream.

Wisconsin↗