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Dale M. Robertson

Publications and source records attributed to Dale M. Robertson.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Great Lakes harmful algal blooms: Current knowledge gaps

Freshwater Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) pose serious risks throughout the world to drinking water, recreation, and ecosystem health. The Great Lakes, which contain nearly 20% of the world’s available surface freshwater, have been experiencing an increase in HABs since the 1990s. Knowledge gaps relating to HABs remain even after extensive and ongoing research efforts. These knowledge gaps are presented below for the benefit of water resource managers, state and federal agencies, legislators, and others involved in the development of policies to address HABs throughout the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Importance of accurately quantifying internal loading in developing phosphorus reduction strategies for a chain of shallow lakes

The Winnebago Pool is a chain of 4 shallow lakes in Wisconsin. Because of high external phosphorus (P) inputs to the lakes, the lakes became highly eutrophic, with much P contained in their sediments. In developing a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for these lakes, it is important to determine how their phosphorus concentrations should respond to changes in external P loading. In many TMDLs, internal P loading is assumed to be negligible or it is estimated based on sediment release rates and dissolved oxygen conditions in the lake, and each lake is considered independently. To evaluate these assumptions, internal P loading and external P loading were quantified by developing detailed P budgets for the Winnebago Pool chain of lakes. This information was then inputted into 2 eutrophication models (BATHTUB and Jensen models), which were used to simulate the steady-state and transient effects of various P reduction strategies. The importance of internal P loading varied among lakes, from being a minor source to representing almost 60% of the summer P input. Model results indicate that each lake responds to external P reductions, but internal loading can delay the lake responses, especially in the most downstream lake, Lake Winnebago, where internal P loading was most important to its summer P budget. Accurately quantifying net internal P loading and using this information in lake models are important in evaluating how large shallow lakes should respond to P reduction strategies, setting realistic expectations from watershed P reductions, and guiding TMDL efforts.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

Forecasting the combined effects of anticipated climate change and agricultural conservation practices on fish recruitment dynamics in Lake Erie

Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana ) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change ( n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation ( n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana↗
USGS2020

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment loads in streams of the midwestern United States

In this report, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models developed to describe long-term (2000–14) mean-annual streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended-sediment (SS) transport in streams of the Midwestern part of the United States (the Mississippi River, Great Lakes, and Red River of the North Basins) are described. The nutrient and suspended-sediment models have a base year of 2012, which means they were developed based on source inputs and management practices similar to those existing during or near 2012 and average hydrological conditions detrended to 2012 (2000–14), whereas the streamflow model has base years of 2000–14, which means it was developed based on the average input precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration from 2000 to 2014. In developing the models, several updates and improvements were made to the data inputs and statistical approaches used to calibrate/develop the models from those used in the previous 2002 SPARROW models. The 2012 SPARROW models were constructed using a higher resolution stream network, which resulted in a mean catchment size of 2.7 square kilometers compared to 480 square kilometers in the 2002 models; more detailed and updated wastewater treatment plant contribution estimates; inputs from background phosphorus sources that were not included in the 2002 model; and more accurate loads for calibration that were computed using a modified Beale ratio-estimator technique whenever no trend in load was determined. Statistical approaches were added to compensate for the unequal effect of each monitoring site during the calibration process by adjusting for the fraction of the basin included in other upstream monitored sites (nested share) and thinning the calibration sites if a negative statistical correlation between nearby sites was determined. Results from 2012 SPARROW models describe how much of each water, TN, TP, and SS source was delivered to the stream network, and the major landscape factors that affected their delivery. Atmospheric deposition and natural (background) sources of TN and TP, respectively, were the dominant sources in anthropogenically unaffected areas (especially in the Rocky Mountains and north-central areas of the Midwest), whereas fertilizers, manure, and fixation were dominant sources in agricultural areas, especially in the Corn Belt and near the Mississippi River. Urban sources of TN and TP were typically localized, but they were still important for some large areas, especially the Lake Erie Basin. All of the land-to-water delivery variables in the nutrient and sediment SPARROW models, such as runoff, soil erodibility, basin slope, and the amount of tile drains, are commonly included in process-driven models. In the SPARROW TN and TP models, best management practices (BMPs) reduced the delivery of these nutrients to streams. Long-term mean-annual flows and nutrient and sediment loads were simulated in streams throughout the Midwest. The simulated flows from the SPARROW flow model were used in the SPARROW TN, TP, and SS models to help describe nutrient and sediment transport from the watershed and through the stream network. Outputs from the TN, TP, and SS models describe loads and yields of these constituents throughout the Midwest, and from major drainage basins throughout the Midwest. Highest TN, TP, and SS yields and delivered yields were from the Lake Erie, Ohio River, Upper Mississippi River, and Lower Mississippi River Basins, whereas lowest yields were spread over most other areas. Losses during downstream delivery resulted in part of the TN, TP, and SS that reach the stream network not reaching the downstream receiving bodies: 14, 15, and 28 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Great Lakes and 19, 23, and 52 percent of the TN, TP, and SS, respectively, are lost during delivery to the Gulf of Mexico. The largest losses of nutrients and sediments during transport were in the Missouri and Arkansas River Basins. Information from these SPARROW models can help guide nutrient and sediment reduction strategies throughout the Midwest. Model results provide information on what may be the most appropriate general type of actions to reduce total loading by describing the relative importance of each source, and where to most efficiently place the efforts to reduce loading by describing the distribution of nutrient and sediment loading. By implementing management efforts addressing the major sources of the loads in areas contributing the highest loads, it may be possible to reduce nutrient loading throughout the Mississippi River Basin and thus reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico; reduce nutrient loading into lakes, and thus reduce the occurrence of harmful algal blooms; and reduce sediment losses, and thus improve the benthic habitat in streams and rivers throughout the Midwest.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2019

Seasonal epilimnetic temperature patterns and trends in a suite of lakes from Wisconsin (USA), Germany and Finland

Epilimnetic temperatures from the early 1980s through 2017 were analyzed for 12 Wisconsin, German and Finnish lakes. Seasonal temperature metrics exhibited large interannual variability with trends differing among regions. In the Wisconsin lakes, only late summer and fall temperatures increased significantly. In the northeastern Germany lakes, temperatures increased in all seasons, but only significantly for some metrics. The Finnish lakes, which spanned the country’s latitude range, exhibited large spring temperature increases influenced by earlier ice-out; summer temperatures also increased significantly, but fall changes were varied. To elucidate longer-term epilimnetic temperature patterns, earlier records from 4 lakes were analyzed. For Lake Mendota (southern Wisconsin), spring and late fall temperatures increased modestly but significantly since 1894; summer temperatures also increased modestly due to a higher frequency of recent summers with warm temperatures and not from new record high temperatures. Trout Lake (northern Wisconsin) exhibited warm temperatures in some summers during the 1930s-1940s similar to warm temperatures in some recent summers. Air-water temperature relationships coupled with long-term regional air temperature data also indicated summer epilimnetic temperatures in the study lakes were likely as warm in the 1930s-1940s as in recent years. Lake data confirmed cooler epilimnetic temperatures occurred in many summers during the 1950s-1980s coincident with intervening cooler air temperatures during this period. Because epilimnetic temperatures have not increased monotonically since 1900, our study supports continued temperature monitoring in lakes with extensive historical data to better understand and project future effects of climate change on lake ecosystems.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Phosphorus and nitrogen transport in the binational Great Lakes Basin estimated using SPARROW watershed models

Eutrophication problems in the Great Lakes are caused by excessive nutrient inputs (primarily phosphorus, P, and nitrogen, N) from various sources throughout its basin. In developing protection and restoration plans, it is important to know where and from what sources the nutrients originate. As part of a binational effort, Midcontinent SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) models were developed and used to estimate P and N loading from throughout the entire basin based on nutrient inputs similar to 2002; previous SPARROW models only estimated U.S. contributions. The new models have a higher resolution (~2‐km 2 catchments) enabling improved descriptions of where nutrients originate and the sources at various spatial scales. The models were developed using harmonized geospatial datasets describing the stream network, nutrient sources, and environmental characteristics affecting P and N delivery. The models were calibrated using loads from sites estimated with ratio estimator and regression techniques and additional statistical approaches to reduce spatial correlation in the residuals and have all monitoring sites equally influence model development. SPARROW results, along with interlake transfers and direct atmospheric inputs, were used to quantify the entire P and N input to each lake and describe the importance of each nutrient source. Model results can be used to compare loading and yields from various tributaries and jurisdictions.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2019

Estimates of long-term mean daily streamflow and annual nutrient and suspended-sediment loads considered for use in regional SPARROW models of the Conterminous United States, 2012 base year

Streamflow, nutrient, and sediment concentration data needed to estimate long-term mean daily streamflow and annual constituent loads were compiled from Federal, State, Tribal, and regional agencies, universities, and nongovernmental organizations. The streamflow and loads are used to develop Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of streamflow, nutrients, and sediment in streams throughout five regions of the conterminous United States. After the data were screened, approximately 5,200 streamflow, 3,000 sediment, and 3,300 nutrient sites, sampled by 137 agencies and organizations were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean daily streamflow and annual nutrient and sediment loads required for SPARROW model estimation. These sites are representative of a wide range in terms of watershed size, contaminant source types, and land-use and other important watershed characteristics. The methods used to estimate long-term mean annual loads include the Beale ratio estimator and Fluxmaster regression method with Kalman smoothing.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2019

Modelling for catchment management

Catchment models are useful tools to help describe and quantify the sources, transport, and fate of sediment, nutrients, and other constituents in a landscape. Results from catchment models are used to quantify and understand existing conditions and used in restoration efforts by defining areas with highest contributions (hotspots, where actions would be most beneficial) and describing the relative importance of various sources (what types of actions would be most beneficial). In practice, a continuum of models exists from simple empirical models to complex process-driven models, each requiring different types and amounts of information. Each of these models has its strengths and weaknesses, which should be considered when deciding which model to apply to a specific area. In many applications, a combination of models can be either coupled or run in series to help describe how nutrients and sediment are transported from the field to downstream receiving water bodies. In this chapter, we describe the continuum of catchment models that exist and provide information for choosing specific models for various management applications. We then provide examples of catchment models used to address a wide range of scientific and policy driven issues: two models commonly applied in New Zealand (CLUES and GLEAMS) and one model (SPARROW) applied to a large river basin in the United States (Mississippi River Basin).

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Physical, biogeochemical, and meteorological factors responsible for interannual changes in cyanobacterial community composition and biovolume over two decades in a eutrophic lake

This study used a 20-year dataset (1995–2014) to identify factors affecting cyanobacterial community composition (CCC) and abundance in a eutrophic lake. We hypothesized that differences in thermal structure, nutrients, and meteorology drive interannual variability in CCC and abundance. Cluster analysis differentiated dominant cyanobacteria into rare, low abundance, or sporadically occurring taxa. The bloom-forming genera were Microcystis and Aphanizomenon , accounting for ~ 70% of total cyanobacterial biovolume (BV) on average, whereas unusually high abundance of Planktothrix, Synechococcus, and Oscillatoria were clear outliers in three of the years. Variability in CCC was significantly correlated ( P < 0.05, R > 0.3) with ice duration, Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), and spring nitrite + nitrate (NO 2+3 ); ice duration and TKN were associated with the occurrence of primarily non-bloom-forming genera. Pairwise correlations tested linear, exponential, and polynomial correlates of absolute and relative total Cyanophyta, Microcystis , or Aphanizomenon BV. TKN, total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP), TN:TP ratio, Schmidt stability, and rainfall correlated with total Cyanophyta, Microcystis , and Aphanizomenon BV, whereas ice cover, NO 2+3 , and TKN correlated with relative Microcystis and Aphanizomenon BV. Despite increasing TN:TP ratio over two decades, cyanobacterial abundance had not changed significantly. These data suggest differing responses of cyanobacterial genera to important environmental factors over two decades.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2018

Water-quality response to changes in phosphorus loading of the Winnebago Pool Lakes, Wisconsin, with special emphasis on the effects of internal loading in a chain of shallow lakes

The Winnebago Pool is a chain of four shallow lakes (Lake Poygan, Lake Winneconne, Lake Butte des Morts, and Lake Winnebago) that are fed primarily by the Fox and Wolf Rivers, two large agriculturally dominated rivers in Wisconsin, United States. Because the lakes have received extensive phosphorus inputs from their watershed, they have become highly eutrophic with much phosphorus in the water column as well as trapped in their sediments. Each of the four Winnebago Pool lakes has been included on the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources impaired waters list because of their high total phosphorus concentrations, water-quality use restrictions, and excess algal growth. The study described in this report is part of a Total Maximum Daily Load investigation to determine what actions are needed to improve the water quality (trophic status) of these lakes and thus be able to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. As part of this study, data were collected to describe the existing water quality of the lakes, detailed phosphorus budgets were developed for each of the lakes to describe the different sources of the phosphorus, and two eutrophication models (BATHTUB and Jensen models) were used to determine how much of the phosphorus being input to the lakes needs to be reduced for the lakes to be removed from the impaired waters list and restore their designated uses. In-lake water-quality data indicated that each of the lakes had extensive vertical mixing that resulted in their water quality deteriorating throughout summer. Each of the lakes had mean summer total phosphorus concentrations exceeding 0.088 milligram per liter (mg/L), well above the 0.040 mg/L criterion for the lakes. Detailed phosphorus budgets for the lakes indicated that the primary sources of phosphorus were from their tributaries (for the most upstream lake in the Winnebago Pool–Lake Poygan) or from a combination of input from the upstream lakes and phosphorus release from the bottom sediment when only the summer months were considered (for the other three lakes). Model simulations with the BATHTUB and Jensen models indicated that (1) the lakes should have almost linear response in their total phosphorus concentrations to changes in their phosphorus inputs; (2) phosphorus inputs need to be reduced by about 60 percent to the Upper Pool Lakes and 69–73 percent to Lake Winnebago to reduce their mean summer total phosphorus concentrations to 0.040 mg/L; and (3) if all the anthropogenic phosphorus inputs to the lakes could be eliminated, their best possible mean summer total phosphorus concentrations should decrease to about 0.022–0.028 mg/L in the Upper Pool Lakes and to 0.032–0.033 mg/L in Lake Winnebago. The effects of any reduction in phosphorus loading will take many years (50 to more than 75 years) to be fully realized in lake water quality because of phosphorus release from the lake sediments. The effects of nutrient reductions in the watershed of a chain of lakes, such as the Winnebago Pool, gradually cascades down the chain, which has beneficial and detrimental effects. Any action made in the watershed of upstream lakes to reduce phosphorus inputs should improve the water quality of all downstream lakes; however, the upstream lakes delay the response in the downstream lakes, especially in lakes where internal phosphorus loading is important.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

Evaluation of the effects of changes in the timing of water-level drawdowns on the export of phosphorus from Little St. Germain Lake, Wisconsin

Little St. Germain Lake is a 978-acre, multibasin lake in Vilas County, Wisconsin. In the interest of improving its water quality, the Little St. Germain Lake Protection and Rehabilitation District initiated a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey to describe the current phosphorus input into and export from Little St. Germain Lake and evaluate how water releases at different times of the year could affect the amount of phosphorus being released from the lake, potentially affecting water quality in the lake. Approximately 780 pounds per year of phosphorus are exported out of the lake, which is about 80 percent of that contributed to the lake by Muskellunge Creek. By focusing the release of water to times when phosphorus concentrations near the outlet of the lake are highest, export of phosphorus from the lake could increase by about 60 to 80 pounds annually. This is equivalent to reducing phosphorus contributions from Muskellunge Creek by about 7 to 9 percent. Increasing phosphorus export from the lake should improve the long-term water-quality of the lake, especially in the southern basins of the lake.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

Estimates of long-term mean-annual nutrient loads considered for use in SPARROW models of the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States, 2002 base year

Streamflow and nutrient concentration data needed to compute nitrogen and phosphorus loads were compiled from Federal, State, Provincial, and local agency databases and also from selected university databases. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads are necessary inputs to Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) models. SPARROW models are a way to estimate the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States. After screening the data, approximately 1,500 sites sampled by 34 agencies were identified as having suitable data for calculating the long-term mean-annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These final sites represent a wide range in watershed sizes, types of nutrient sources, and land-use and watershed characteristics in the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Effects of air temperature and discharge on Upper Mississippi River summer water temperatures

Recent interest in the potential effects of climate change has prompted studies of air temperature and precipitation associations with water temperatures in rivers and streams. We examined associations between summer surface water temperatures and both air temperature and discharge for 5 reaches of the Upper Mississippi River during 1994–2011. Water–air temperature associations at a given reach approximated 1:1 when estimated under an assumption of reach independence but declined to approximately 1:2 when water temperatures were permitted to covary among reaches and were also adjusted for upstream air temperatures. Estimated water temperature–discharge associations were weak. An apparently novel feature of this study is that of addressing changes in associations between water and air temperatures when both are correlated among reaches.

Upper Mississippi River↗
USGS2018

Effects of water level and climate on the hydrodynamics and water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, a shallow seepage lake

Interannual differences in the water quality of Anvil Lake, Wisconsin, were examined to determine how water level and climate affect the hydrodynamics and trophic state of shallow lakes, and their importance compared to anthropogenic changes in the watershed. Anvil Lake is a relatively pristine seepage lake with hydrology dominated by precipitation, evaporation, and groundwater exchange enabling the typically subtle effects of water level and climate to be evaluated. Groundwater and hydrodynamic models were used to describe lake water and phosphorus budgets and how its hydrodynamics are affected by water level and air temperature. Decreases in water level are expected to cause Anvil Lake and other shallow lakes to stratify fewer days, and have warmer bottom temperatures and more deep-mixing events. Increasing air temperatures should cause these lakes to have shorter ice cover, longer summer stratification periods, and warmer bottom temperatures. How water level affects water quality depends on how nutrient loading and lake volume vary: during drier, low-water years, lakes with large interannual changes in loading should have better water quality, whereas lakes with small changes in loading should degrade slightly. Anthropogenic changes in Anvil Lake's watershed over the past ∼100 yr were about 1.5 times the effects of changes in water level when levels were low, but the effects were similar when levels were high. Climate warming is expected to increase productivity in shallow lakes because warmer air temperatures will likely increase bottom temperatures increasing sediment phosphorus release and deep-mixing events enabling this phosphorus to reach the epilimnion.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

A surrogate regression approach for computing continuous loads for the tributary nutrient and sediment monitoring program on the Great Lakes

Water quality (WQ) in many Great Lake tributaries has been degraded (increased nutrient and sediment concentrations) due to changes in their watersheds, resulting in downstream eutrophication. As part of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, specific goals were established for loading of specific constituents (e.g., phosphorus). In 2010, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was launched to identify problem areas, accelerate restoration efforts, and track their progress. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey established a monitoring program on 30 tributaries to the lakes, representing ~ 46% of the U.S. draining area and the spectrum of land uses. Discrete measurements of nutrients and suspended sediment, and continuous measurements of flow and WQ surrogates (turbidity, temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen) are being collected in these tributaries to document their WQ and estimate continuous (5-min) loading. To estimate loadings, two regression models were developed for each constituent for each site: one using continuous flow and a seasonality factor; and one using flow, seasonality, and continuous surrogates. Variables included in the final models for each constituent were chosen from the explanatory variables that worked “best” for all sites. In computing loads, when continuous surrogate data were unavailable for short periods, loads were computed using the flow and seasonality models. Prediction intervals for all loads were calculated using results from both models. These results provide a better understanding of short-term variability and long-term changes in loading affecting the environmental health of the Great Lakes than traditional regression techniques that employ only flow and seasonality parameters.

Great Lake↗
USGS2018

Geospatial data for developing nutrient SPARROW models for the Midcontinental region of Canada and the United States

Through the International Watersheds Initiative of the International Joint Commission (IJC), the SpatiallyReferenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is being applied to the Great Lakes, Rainy River – Lake of the Woods and Red-Assiniboine basins. The objective of this binational application of the SPARROW model is to better understand and quantify the sources of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) that contribute to regional water-quality issues like algal blooms and eutrophication in Lake Erie and other parts of the Great Lakes, as well as Lake of the Woods. Led by the IJC, a team of researchers from the National Research Council of Canada – Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre, USGS, and IJC are extending the SPARROW modelling work previously completed for the Red-Assiniboine basin and the U.S. portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy river basins to cover all of the Great Lakes, Rainy River – Lake of the Woods and RedAssiniboine basins. The current effort is termed the Midcontinent SPARROW modelling study. This report describes the data used to develop the Midcontinent SPARROW models, specifically the sources of original data, assembling the data, and the processing and harmonization required between the U.S. and Canada data needed to produce these models. Details provided include the: development of a digital stream network and related catchments – most significantly in the Canadian regions of the Great Lakes and Rainy River – Lake of the Woods basins where these data were not available to create a seamless binational network across the model domain; calculation of variables to aid in the determination of in-stream and in-reservoir decay of P and N; quantification of Canadian diversions within the Midcontinental region (i.e., Lake St. Joseph, Long Lake and the Ogoki Reservoir); development of binational input nutrient sources considered for model development (i.e., land cover, inorganic farm fertilizer, manure, atmospheric deposition, point-source pollution from wastewatertreatment plants and contribution from non-modelled watersheds); and development of delivery variables considered to be most predominant (i.e., temperature, precipitation and ensuing runoff, soil permeability and clay content, slope of the catchments, and tile drainage). The majority of the geospatial data collection and processing was required for Canadian datasets because many of the U.S. datasets were already assembled for previous SPARROW model applications in the U.S. The task of harmonizing data between the U.S. and Canada was important to ensure consistency of the datasets used in the models. The harmonized digital stream network, delineated catchments and input data for each catchment (i.e., source and delivery variables), created for the Midcontinent SPARROW models, are available for download at url: https://doi.org/10.4224/300.0001.

Technical Report↗
USGS2017

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr −1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr −1 ). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr −1 ), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr −1 to 0.035°C yr −1 , SD: 0.034°C yr −1 ). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Wisconsin↗