Geology topics

Dale M. Robertson

Publications and source records attributed to Dale M. Robertson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Estimating the importance of floating surface material to the total phosphorus transport in Silver Creek, Wisconsin using Particle Image Velocimetry

Various techniques are used to estimate nutrient delivery in streams that combine flow and water-quality data. However, the transport of surface floating material is difficult to measure, and is therefore typically neglected when stream sampling and in the estimated nutrient delivery. Here, we describe an approach to estimate the amount of material (duckweed ( Lemna genus), filamentous algae, and other macrophyte fragments) and associated nutrients (in this case, phosphorus, P) transported on the surface of Silver Creek, Wisconsin, to determine if this material is an important transport mechanism and if historical P loads were underestimated. This approach includes estimating the transport of surface material using 10 s videos collected every 15 min from a downward-looking camera installed beneath a bridge. The average velocity of the surface material was first determined using Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), which uses short videos to analyze surface particle movement. The amount of surface material in each video was then computed using computer-vision techniques. The P load associated with the transported surface material was then estimated by combining surface velocities, coverage of floating material, and laboratory-measured P content. Surface material transported ~9–11% of the total summer P load and ~4–7% of the annual load in Silver Creek.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

Seasonal estimates of nutrient loading, sources, and impacts on water availability in streams across the conterminous United States, 2000–2020

Excess riverine nutrients can limit water availability for humans and ecosystems. Nutrient monitoring on individual stream reaches provides important information about current and past conditions, yet most river reaches are unmonitored. Additionally, monitored data integrate effects of upstream sources, sinks, and pathways by which nutrients get into streams, making explicit planning for effective nutrient reduction strategies challenging. We developed and applied dynamic SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to quantify total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) delivery and source-specific loading in all stream reaches of the conterminous United States (CONUS) at a seasonal timestep from 2000 through 2020. Between one third and one half of non-point source nutrients lagged more than one season in their delivery to CONUS streams over the study period. The largest sources of nutrients that were applied and delivered to streams within a season were agricultural fertilizers, treated wastewater, atmospheric deposition, and manure. Increases in loads were widespread across the CONUS and predominantly associated with increased loading from lagged delivery of non-point source inputs and current season fertilizer application. Model results also identified extensive areas where predicted seasonal concentrations frequently exceeded the National Rivers and Streams Assessment “poor” criteria. Increased loading occurred in areas with high yields and delivery to downstream receiving waterbodies, particularly across the Midwest, raising the risk of negative impacts to downstream water availability. The modeling approach presented here provides a continental-scale framework for identifying when, where, and why nutrients are generated and how that may ultimately impact receiving waterbodies.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2026

Spatially referenced watershed models for the binational Red–Assiniboine River Basin: Bayesian vs frequentist comparison

Excess nutrient loading remains a leading cause of declining water quality in lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters worldwide, with global economic costs of US$200 billion – US$2 trillion annually from impacts on fisheries, tourism, freshwater resources, and water treatment. Our study focuses on total phosphorus (TP) in Lake Winnipeg and its binational Red-Assiniboine River Basin, where nutrient inputs have degraded water quality and increased cyanobacterial blooms. These changes pose ecological, public health, and economic risks. We applied a spatially referenced watershed model with a hybrid statistical-mechanistic structure partitioning annual nutrient loads into land-use export, land-to-water delivery, and in-reservoir decay. Bayesian and traditional frequentist model calibrations were compared. In the frequentist model, coefficients for agricultural inputs, forests /wetlands, stream channels, precipitation, and reservoir losses were statistically significant, whereas coefficient for wastewater was not. In contrast, all variables were successfully calibrated using the Bayesian approach. Model results delineate TP-export hotspots across the basin, showing that 54–62% of TP originates from the U.S., with agricultural sources ranging 62–72%—highlighting the importance of agriculture-focused Best Management Practices. Given the global relevance of nutrient-driven water-quality challenges, our results highlight Bayesian calibration for robust risk assessment and adaptive nutrient management.

Red–Assiniboine River Basin↗

USGS2025

How do hydrological variability and human activities control the spatiotemporal changes of riverine nitrogen export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001–2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N export changes in the region between 2001–2005 and 2016–2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001–2005 to 2016–2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 – + NO 2 – -N loading throughout the basin. This framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

Upper Mississippi River Basin↗

USGS2025

One-hundred fundamental, open questions to integrate methodological approaches in lake ice research

The rate of technological innovation within aquatic sciences outpaces the collective ability of individual scientists within the field to make appropriate use of those technologies. The process of in situ lake sampling remains the primary choice to comprehensively understand an aquatic ecosystem at local scales; however, the impact of climate change on lakes necessitates the rapid advancement of understanding and the incorporation of lakes on both landscape and global scales. Three fields driving innovation within winter limnology that we address here are autonomous real-time in situ monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling. The recent progress in low-power in situ sensing and data telemetry allows continuous tracing of under-ice processes in selected lakes as well as the development of global lake observational networks. Remote sensing offers consistent monitoring of numerous systems, allowing limnologists to ask certain questions across large scales. Models are advancing and historically come in different types (process-based or statistical data-driven), with the recent technological advancements and integration of machine learning and hybrid process-based/statistical models. Lake ice modeling enhances our understanding of lake dynamics and allows for projections under future climate warming scenarios. To encourage the merging of technological innovation within limnological research of the less-studied winter period, we have accumulated both essential details on the history and uses of contemporary sampling, remote sensing, and modeling techniques. We crafted 100 questions in the field of winter limnology that aim to facilitate the cross-pollination of intensive and extensive modes of study to broaden knowledge of the winter period.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2025

Gaps in water quality modeling of hydrologic systems

This review assesses gaps in water quality modeling, emphasizing opportunities to improve next-generation models that are essential for managing water quality and are integral to meeting goals of scientific and management agencies. In particular, this paper identifies gaps in water quality modeling capabilities that, if addressed, could support assessments, projections, and evaluations of management alternatives to support ecosystem health and human beneficial use of water resources. It covers surface water and groundwater quality modeling, dealing with a broad suite of physical, biogeochemical, and anthropogenic drivers. Modeling capabilities for six constituents (or constituent categories) are explored: water temperature, salinity, nutrients, sediment, geogenic constituents, and contaminants of emerging concern. Each constituent was followed through the coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-human system, with prominent modeling gaps described for a diverse array of relevant inputs, processes, and human activities. Commonly identified modeling gaps primarily fall under three types: (1) model gaps, (2) data gaps, and (3) process understanding gaps. In addition to potential solutions for addressing specific individual modeling limitations, some broad approaches (e.g., enhanced data collection and compilation, machine learning, reduced-complexity modeling) are discussed as ways forward for tackling multiple gaps. This gap analysis establishes a framework of diverse approaches that may support improved process representation, scale, and accuracy of models for a wide range of water quality issues.

Water↗

USGS2025

Connecting tributary mercury loads to nearshore and offshore sediments in Lake Superior

Lake Superior has a vast and largely undeveloped watershed in comparison to the other Great Lakes, which makes it challenging to study mercury (Hg) sources and cycling. To examine Hg inputs to Lake Superior, we conducted an expansive binational assessment in 40 watersheds from a diverse range of landcover types. We further paired tributary Hg data to sediment source portfolios in the nearshore and offshore zones of Lake Superior through partnership with the Great Lakes Sediment Surveillance Program. We observed that total Hg loads were highest in the spring driven by the combination of elevated Hg concentrations and increased water discharge from snowmelt. In addition, total Hg concentrations in tributaries from remote, heavily forested regions, such as Pukaskwa National Park and the Minnesota Northshore, were higher than the Southshore and Thunder Bay regions. Methylmercury concentrations and loads were more spatially dependent, often corresponding to regions with more wetlands (e.g., Michigan Upper Peninsula). We estimated that the total Hg tributary load to Lake Superior in 2021 was 126 kg per year. To further examine the fate of watershed Hg sources, we examined sediments from 28 sites in Lake Superior using Hg stable isotopes. At open water sites, precipitation was the primary Hg source to sediments, but within nearshore sites Hg originated predominantly from watershed runoff. This work further defines the sources and fate of Hg within Lake Superior and highlights how Hg delivery is intrinsically tied to varying hydrologic regimes.

Michigan, Minnesota, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Changes in phosphorus concentration and flux from 2011 to 2023 in major U.S. tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Reducing phosphorus (P) flux to the Great Lakes is critical for improving water quality and controlling eutrophication. We used 13 water years (2011–2023) of U.S. Geological Survey data from 24 major U.S. tributaries (representing 47% of the U.S. Great Lakes watershed area) to evaluate temporal changes in orthophosphate (PO 4 -P) and total P (TP) using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season. We assessed actual and flow-normalized P concentrations and fluxes. Between 2011 and 2023, P concentrations and fluxes declined in many tributaries, although the extent and significance of these declines varied. Decreases were more common and statistically likely for TP than PO 4 -P, and several high-loading watersheds had modest or non-significant changes. Flow-normalized PO 4 -P:TP flux ratios increased in over half the tributaries, suggesting that even where P reductions occurred, reductions in the more bioavailable P fraction were proportionally smaller. Actual P fluxes were strongly correlated with streamflow, and year-to-year variability in actual fluxes was, on average, three times greater than variability related to trends in flow-normalized fluxes. This underscores the role of hydrology in modulating P export and highlights how changing precipitation and runoff patterns can obscure or counteract management progress. Spring accounted for the largest share of annual P flux in most tributaries, though many showed declining spring contributions. Our basin-wide analysis reveals that while management efforts may have yielded progress in reducing TP in many watersheds, additional strategies would be needed to address PO 4 -P reductions and account for changing hydrology, especially in high-contributing watersheds.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey Mississippi River Science Forum—Summary of data and science needs and next steps

The U.S. Geological Survey hosted a Mississippi River Science Forum with Federal agencies; Tribal, State, and local governments located in States that border the Mississippi River; academia; and other interested stakeholders. The purpose of the forum was to share current (2023) science; identify data gaps and areas of concern; and to prioritize next steps needed to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters along the Mississippi River. The forum was a directive for the U.S. Geological Survey in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 (Public Law 117—103, 136 Stat. 49). Participants and stakeholders that attended the Mississippi River Science Forum indicated the following. A Mississippi River Science Committee could bring together the voices of all stakeholders, including Federal agencies; State, local, and Tribal governments; academia; nongovernmental organizations; business and industry; and other interested parties. This committee would also work with (but not replace) Mississippi River Basin entities already in place and establish effective communication to identify and address Basin-wide management needs and to develop holistic solutions for those needs. A Mississippi River science plan could expand on the science and data gaps identified by the Forum. This plan could guide data collection and help resource managers develop and implement restoration initiatives within the Basin, recognizing that addressing these needs will require substantial resources. The science committee, working with other entities in the basin, should develop data standards for the Mississippi River Basin that allow stakeholders to utilize comparable data to address their needs. These standards would include data findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability. This report highlights data gaps and areas of concern discussed during the forum, and it identifies needs to advance the goals of improving water quality, restoring habitat and natural systems, improving navigation, eliminating aquatic invasive species, and building local resilience to natural disasters with specific emphasis on data collection and measurement, and scientific investigation. The report also summarizes stakeholder input and feedback and outlines next steps identified by forum participants.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Modeling nearshore total phosphorus in Lake Michigan using linked hydrodynamic and water quality models

Although the offshore water of Lake Michigan has been below the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) total phosphorus (TP) spring target concentration of 7 µg L −1 for several decades, higher TP concentrations occur in the nearshore, contributing to the resurgence of Cladophora and other nutrient related issues. The most recent update of the GLWQA specifically calls for the assessment of current nearshore conditions. Such assessment would require an intensive monitoring program supported by water quality models. Here we applied multiple versions of a phosphorus-based model linked to an unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model. We focus on the nearshore regions of Lake Michigan around the Grand and Muskegon rivers – a region with strong riverine TP influence and intensive monitoring. Results from a TP model were compared to observational data and to a previously published Phosphorus-based Nutrient–Phytoplankton–Zooplankton–Detrital–Mussel (NPZDM) model. Model results and observational data show that parts of the nearshore can be well above the target TP concentrations but, due to the dynamic nature of this region, the TP concentrations can change rapidly. The models’ skill statistics in predicting individual observations were variable, but it was able to simulate temporal and spatial trends and captured the distribution of observations in our study area. The similarity between the results of the TP and NPZDM models demonstrated the TP concentrations in this nearshore area are driven by hydrodynamics and river TP loads, which are likely the reasons for the higher observed TP concentrations. Simplicity, transparency, and ease of use of the TP model make it a useful tool for supporting nearshore assessments and estimating existing and future nearshore TP concentrations.

Michigan↗

USGS2024

Improving ecosystem health in highly altered river basins: A generalized framework and its application to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

Continued large-scale public investment in declining ecosystems depends on demonstrations of “success”. While the public conception of “success” often focuses on restoration to a pre-disturbance condition, the scientific community is more likely to measure success in terms of improved ecosystem health. Using a combination of literature review, workshops and expert solicitation we propose a generalized framework to improve ecosystem health in highly altered river basins by reducing ecosystem stressors, enhancing ecosystem processes and increasing ecosystem resilience. We illustrate the use of this framework in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central United States (U.S.), by (i) identifying key stressors related to human activities, and (ii) creating a conceptual ecosystem model relating those stressors to effects on ecosystem structure and processes. As a result of our analysis, we identify a set of landscape-level indicators of ecosystem health, emphasizing leading indicators of stressor removal (e.g., reduced anthropogenic nutrient inputs), increased ecosystem function (e.g., increased water storage in the landscape) and increased resilience (e.g., changes in the percentage of perennial vegetative cover). We suggest that by including these indicators, along with lagging indicators such as direct measurements of water quality, stakeholders will be better able to assess the effectiveness of management actions. For example, if both leading and lagging indicators show improvement over time, then management actions are on track to attain desired ecosystem condition. If, however, leading indicators are not improving or even declining, then fundamental challenges to ecosystem health remain to be addressed and failure to address these will ultimately lead to declines in lagging indicators such as water quality. Although our model and indicators are specific to the MARB, we believe that the generalized framework and the process of model and indicator development will be valuable in an array of altered river basins.

Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin↗

USGS2024

Prioritizing river basins for nutrient studies

Increases in fluxes of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the environment have led to negative impacts affecting drinking water, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Because of the importance, scale, and complexity of these issues, it may be useful to consider methods for prioritizing nutrient research in representative drainage basins within a regional or national context. Two systematic, quantitative approaches were developed to (1) identify basins that geospatial data suggest are most impacted by nutrients and (2) identify basins that have the most variability in factors affecting nutrient sources and transport in order to prioritize basins for studies that seek to understand the key drivers of nutrient impacts. The “impact” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water and groundwater nutrient concentrations, sources of N and P, and potential impacts on receptors (i.e., ecosystems and human health). The “variability” approach relied on geospatial variables representing surface-water nutrient concentrations, factors affecting sources and transport of nutrients, model accuracy, and potential receptor impacts. One hundred and sixty-three drainage basins throughout the contiguous United States were ranked nationally and within 18 hydrologic regions. Nationally, the top-ranked basins from the impact approach were concentrated in the Midwest, while those from the variability approach were dispersed across the nation. Regionally, the top-ranked basin selected by the two approaches differed in 15 of the 18 regions, with top-ranked basins selected by the variability approach having lower minimum concentrations and larger ranges in concentrations than top-ranked basins selected by the impact approach. The highest ranked basins identified using the variability approach may have advantages for exploring how landscape factors affect surface-water quality and how surface-water quality may affect ecosystems. In contrast, the impact approach prioritized basins in terms of human development and nutrient concentrations in both surface water and groundwater, thereby targeting areas where actions to reduce nutrient concentrations could have the largest effect on improving water availability and reducing ecosystem impacts.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

USGS2024

Seasonally varying contributions of contemporaneous and lagged sources of instream total nitrogen and phosphorus load across the Illinois River basin

Quantifying nutrient sources in streams, their temporal and spatial variability, and drivers of that variability can support effective water resources management. Yet a lack of data and modeling capabilities has previously prevented comprehensive quantification across both space and time. Here a dynamic SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes) model that accounts for a lagged delivery of nutrients to streams was developed and applied to simulate seasonal and source-specific total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads in streams across the Illinois River basin (IRB). Dynamic load predictions from 2000 through 2020 revealed that a third of the TN and a quarter of the TP instream load originated from non-point sources that were lagged in their delivery from land-application to streams by more than a season. This lagged mass was the largest overall TN source—which was estimated as a lagged expression of previous seasonal non-point sources including fertilizer, manure, atmospheric deposition and fixation, and urban land use. Treated wastewater effluent was the largest TP source exported from the basin, contributing 39 % of the TP load and 15 % of the TN load, and dominated the load in the upper Illinois River near Chicago. Loads in the lower river during this period, conversely, were attributed primarily to a mix of agricultural sources and their lagged fractions from headwater tributaries. Instream processes removed 10 % of the TN load while only 4 % of the TP load was removed during instream transport. With appropriate datasets, the models could be extended to other basins or time periods and used to forecast future seasonal nutrient loads.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Evaluating the suitability of large-scale datasets to estimate nitrogen loads and yields across different spatial scales

Decision makers are often confronted with inadequate information to predict nutrient loads and yields in freshwater ecosystems at large spatial scales. We evaluate the potential of using data mapped at large spatial scales (regional to global) and often coarse resolution to predict nitrogen yields at varying smaller scales (e.g., at the catchment and stream reach level). We applied the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model in three regions: the Upper Midwest part of the United States, New Zealand, and the Grande River Basin in southeastern Brazil. For each region, we compared predictions of nitrogen delivery between models developed using novel large-scale datasets and those developed using local-scale datasets. Large-scale models tended to underperform the local-scale models in poorly monitored areas. Despite this, large-scale models are well suited to generate hypotheses about relative effects of different nutrient source categories (point and urban, agricultural, native vegetation) and to identify knowledge gaps across spatial scales when data are scarce. Regardless of the spatial resolution of the predictors used in the models, a representative network of water quality monitoring stations is key to improve the performance of large-scale models used to estimate loads and yields. We discuss avenues of research to understand how this large-scale modelling approach can improve decision making for managing catchments at local scales, particularly in data poor regions.

Water Research↗

USGS2023

Changes in phosphorus and suspended solids loading in the Fox River, northeastern Wisconsin, 1989–2021

The entire Lower Fox River and inner bay of Green Bay, in northeastern Wisconsin, have been listed as impaired by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) for low dissolved oxygen and degraded habitat, with total phosphorus (TP) and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations listed as the likely causes of these impairments. To restore the Fox River and Green Bay, total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) were developed for TP and TSS, and actions were taken throughout the Fox River Basin to improve water quality. In this study, we estimated concentrations and loads of TP, dissolved phosphorus (DP), and TSS at the Lake Winnebago outlet, De Pere, and the mouth of the Fox River from water year (WY) 1989 to WY 2021; described changes in concentrations and loads through time during this period; and compared the concentrations and loads for the most recent 5-year period (WYs 2017–21) with the WDNR criteria for TP impairment and the TMDL loading goals. TP, DP, TSS, and total suspended sediment concentration data were obtained from NEW Water (the brand of the Green Bay Metropolitan Sewerage District), the WDNR, and the U.S. Geological Survey and combined into one dataset. All the TSS and total suspended sediment data were used together with no adjustment factor and are referred to as simply “TSS.” During WYs 1989–2021, mean annual TP concentrations increased from 0.089 milligram per liter (mg/L) at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.128 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River, and concentrations decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The most recent (WYs 2017–21) median May–October TP concentrations were just less than the 0.1-mg/L WDNR criterion for TP impairment at the two upstream sites (Lake Winnebago outlet and De Pere) but were slightly greater than the criterion for impairment at the mouth of the Fox River. Mean annual DP concentrations increased from 0.024 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 0.036 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River. DP concentrations increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 at the Lake Winnebago outlet but not at the other sites. Mean annual TSS concentrations increased from 13.5 mg/L at the Lake Winnebago outlet to 23.9 mg/L at the mouth of the Fox River and have decreased at all three sites from WY 1989 to WY 2021. The recent median May–October TSS concentrations were less than the 20-mg/L WDNR criterion for impairment at all three sites. Streamflow and TP, DP, and TSS loads increased from the Lake Winnebago outlet to the mouth of the Fox River (TP loads increased from 360,000 to 557,000 kilograms per year [kg/yr], DP loads increased from 114,000 to 162,000 kg/yr, and TSS loads increased from 60,400 metric tons per year [t/yr] to 122,600 t/yr). At the Lake Winnebago outlet, DP concentrations and TP and DP loads increased from WY 1989 to WY 2021 because of an increase in DP concentrations in Lake Winnebago resulting from the lake becoming nitrogen limited as a result of biological processes not consuming the DP in the lake and an increase in streamflow leaving the lake. Although TP and TSS concentrations decreased at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River, there was little change in the loading because of an increase in flow. Flow-normalized TP and TSS loads at De Pere and the mouth of the Fox River decreased possibly because of implementation of agricultural conservation management practices, reductions in point-source discharges in its drainage basin, and deposition of sediment and phosphorus in recently dredged areas of the Lower Fox River. Additional studies are needed to determine the relative importance of each of these actions and whether the decrease in concentrations and flow-normalized loads will continue to be observed in the Fox River.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Response in the water quality of Delavan Lake, Wisconsin, to changes in phosphorus loading—Setting new goals for loading from its drainage basin

During 1989–92, an extensive rehabilitation project was completed in and around Delavan Lake, Wisconsin, to improve the lake’s water quality. However, in 2016, the lake was listed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as impaired for excessive algal growth (high chlorophyll a concentrations), and high phosphorus input was listed as its likely cause. In addition, the recent (2017–21) mean summer water clarity (as measured with a Secchi disk) was shallower than the goal set by the community (3.0 meters). Based primarily on flow and water-quality data collected in Jackson Creek, which is the main tributary of the lake, the mean annual phosphorus loading to the lake during water years (WYs) 2017–21 was 6,570 kilograms per year (kg/yr), and 306 kg/yr came from uncontrollable sources (atmospheric deposition and groundwater). Phosphorus loading during these years was about 48 percent higher than the long-term mean loading from WY 1984 to WY 2021. Based on results from Canfield-Bachmann phosphorus models, Carlson trophic state index relations, and the Jones and Bachmann chlorophyll a relation, external phosphorus loading would need to be decreased from 6,570 to 5,270 kg/yr (a 21-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external phosphorus load from the base period of WYs 2017–21) for chlorophyll a concentrations greater than 20 micrograms per liter to be detected no more than 5.0 percent of the time (the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources criterion for chlorophyll a impairment for the lake). Based on Carlson trophic state index relations, external loading would need to be decreased from 6,570 to 4,380 kg/yr (a 35-percent reduction in the potentially controllable external phosphorus load) for summer mean Secchi depths to increase to 3.0 meters. Therefore, for Delavan Lake to reach the water-quality criteria for impairment and the goals for all three water-quality constituents, a 35-percent reduction in the potentially controllable phosphorus load is needed, which equates to a reduction in total phosphorus loading from 6,570 to 4,380 kg/yr. A 35-percent reduction in phosphorus loading to improve the water quality of Delavan Lake is less than the 49-percent reduction in phosphorus loading required for the area near Delavan Lake to improve the water quality of the Rock River and its tributaries indicated in the Rock River total maximum daily load.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Assessment of conservation management practices on water quality and observed trends in the Plum Creek Basin, 2010–20

The U.S. Geological Survey and University of Wisconsin–Green Bay collected hydrologic and water-quality data to assess the effectiveness of agricultural conservation management practice (CMP) implementation at mainstem Plum Creek and west Plum Creek in northeastern Wisconsin. These two subbasins cover 88 percent of the Plum Creek Basin (Hydrologic Unit Code 12), which is a subbasin of the lower Fox River Basin. A published total maximum daily load report for the lower Fox River Basin rated Plum Creek as one of the greatest contributors of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) draining into the lower Fox River. To reduce TSS and TP exports from Plum Creek, additional cropland conservation practices and watercourse protections were applied between 2012 and 2020. To detect water-quality trends, data were collected during 2010 to 2020 at mainstem Plum Creek and 2013 to 2020 at west Plum Creek. The project used two methods to evaluate CMP effectiveness. The first method focused on evaluating water-quality changes between initial and post-CMP implementation periods during rain- or snowmelt-induced runoff events (hereafter referred to as “events”). In this approach random-forest models were developed to account for environmental factors which influence water quality. Model residuals from the two time periods were compared to determine the significance of water-quality changes associated with CMP implementation for mainstem and west Plum Creek Basins. The second method used a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season time-series approach to examine changes in water quality during the entire study period in mainstem Plum Creek. Results from both methods indicated there were minimal water-quality changes in TSS concentrations and flow-normalized delivery during runoff events during the 10-year period from 2010 to 2020; however, TP concentrations during low streamflow (less than 3 cubic feet per second [ft 3 /s]) may have decreased. The lack of observed improvement may be attributable to any of the following: variability in weather and hydrologic conditions, insufficient post-treatment data, additional cropland being converted to corn production, above average rainfall, streambank degradation, acute and legacy sources of phosphorus from farm fields, excessive/vulnerable manure applications and spills, and point-source discharges.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗