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D.K. Niven

Publications and source records attributed to D.K. Niven.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2008

Combining Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data to evaluate seasonal components of population change in Northern Bobwhite

Annual surveys of wildlife populations provide information about annual rates of change in populations but provide no information about when such changes occur. However, by combining data from 2 annual surveys, conducted in different parts of the year, seasonal components of population change can be estimated. We describe a hierarchical model for simultaneous analysis of 2 continent-scale monitoring programs. The Christmas Bird Count is an early winter survey, whereas the North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted in June. Combining information from these surveys permits estimation of seasonal population variance components and improves estimation of long-term population trends. The composite analysis also controls for survey-specific sampling effects. We applied the model to estimation of population change in northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Over the interval 1969?2004, bobwhite populations declined, with trend estimate of -3.56% per year (95% CI = [-3.80%, -3.32%]) in the surveyed portion of their range. Our analysis of seasonal population variance components indicated that northern bobwhite populations changed more in the winter and spring portion of the year than in the summer and fall portion of the year.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2008

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2006

A hierarchical model for regional analysis of population change using Christmas Bird Count data, with application to the American Black Duck

Analysis of Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data is complicated by the need to account for variation in effort on counts and to provide summaries over large geographic regions. We describe a hierarchical model for analysis of population change using CBC data that addresses these needs. The effect of effort is modeled parametrically, with parameter values varying among strata as identically distributed random effects. Year and site effects are modeled hierarchically, accommodating large regional variation in number of samples and precision of estimates. The resulting model is complex, but a Bayesian analysis can be conducted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We analyze CBC data for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), a species of considerable management interest that has historically been monitored using winter surveys. Over the interval 1966-2003, Black Duck populations showed distinct regional patterns of population change. The patterns shown by CBC data are similar to those shown by the Midwinter Waterfowl Inventory for the United States.

Condor↗
USGS2005

Population trends of North American sea ducks as revealed by the Christmas Bird Count

Relative to other waterfowl, sea ducks are not well understood, yet evidence from a variety of analyses suggests that as many as 10 of the 15 species of North American sea ducks may be declining in population. However, because of the difficulty of conducting surveys of breeding populations and the lack of range-wide winter surveys, few data are available to assess the population trends of sea ducks with confidence. We analyze Audubon Christmas Bird Count data using hierarchical modeling methods that control for varying effort among circles and over time. These procedures allow us to assess early-winter relative density patterns among states and Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) while also assessing trends in these regions and across the species North American range. Over the interval 1966 - 2003, continent-wide declines were observed in 1 of 11 species (the White-winged Scoter; -3.7%/yr). We compare CBC results to estimates of population change derived from the midwinter waterfowl survey conducted by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The CBC does not effectively sample offshore populations of sea ducks; however, the CBC data can be used to assist in development of species-specific surveys, and CBC data can be used in combination with additional offshore sampling programs to better sample sea duck species.

Book chapter↗