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D. Matthew Ely

Publications and source records attributed to D. Matthew Ely.

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Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the upper Yakima River Basin, Kittitas County, central Washington

The hydrogeology, hydrology, and geochemistry of groundwater and surface water in the upper (western) 860 square miles of the Yakima River Basin in Kittitas County, Washington, were studied to evaluate the groundwater-flow system, occurrence and availability of groundwater, and the extent of groundwater/surface-water interactions. The study area ranged in altitude from 7,960 feet in its headwaters in the Cascade Range to 1,730 feet at the confluence of the Yakima River with Swauk Creek. A west-to-east precipitation gradient exists in the basin with the western, high-altitude headwaters of the basin receiving more than 100 inches of precipitation per year and the eastern, low-altitude part of the basin receiving about 20 inches of precipitation per year. From the early 20th century onward, reservoirs in the upper part of the basin (for example, Keechelus, Kachess, and Cle Elum Lakes) have been managed to store snowmelt for irrigation in the greater Yakima River Basin. Canals transport water from these reservoirs for irrigation in the study area; additional water use is met through groundwater withdrawals from wells and surface-water withdrawals from streams and rivers. Estimated groundwater use for domestic, commercial, and irrigation purposes is reported for the study area. A complex assemblage of sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous bedrock underlies the study area. In a structural basin in the southeastern part of the study area, the bedrock is overlain by unconsolidated sediments of glacial and alluvial origin. Rocks and sediments were grouped into six hydrogeologic units based on their lithologic and hydraulic characteristics. A map of their extent was developed from previous geologic mapping and lithostratigraphic information from drillers’ logs. Water flows through interstitial space in unconsolidated sediments, but largely flows through fractures and other sources of secondary porosity in bedrock. Generalized groundwater-flow directions within the unconfined part of the aquifers in unconsolidated sediments indicate generalized groundwater movement toward the Yakima River and its tributaries and the outlet of the study area. Groundwater movement through fractures within the bedrock aquifers is complex and varies over spatial scales depending on the architecture of the fracture-flow system and its hydraulic properties. The complexity of the fracturedbedrock groundwater-flow system is supported by a wide range of groundwater ages determined from geochemical analyses of carbon-14, sulfur hexafluoride, and tritium in groundwater. These geochemical data also indicate that the shallow groundwater system is actively flushing with young, isotopically heavy groundwater, but isotopicallylight, Pleistocene-age groundwater with a geochemicallyevolved composition occurs at depth within the fracturedbedrock aquifers of upper Kittitas County. An eastward depletion of stable isotopes in groundwater is consistent with hydrologically separate subbasins. This suggests that groundwater that recharges in one subbasin is not generally available for withdrawal or discharge into surface-water features within other subbasins. Water budget components were calculated for 11 subbasins using a watershed model and varied based on the climate, land uses, and geology of the subbasin. Synoptic streamflow measurements made in August 2011 indicate that groundwater discharges into several tributaries of the Yakima River with several losses of streamflow measured where the streams exit bedrock uplands and flow over unconsolidated sediments. Profiles of stream temperature during late summer suggest cool groundwater inflow over discrete sections of streams. This groundwater/surfacewater connection is further supported by the stable-isotope composition of stream water, which reflects the local stableisotope composition of groundwater measured at some wells and springs. Collectively, these hydrogeologic, hydrologic, and geochemical data support a framework for evaluating the potential effects of future groundwater appropriations on senior surface-water and groundwater rights and streamflows. Although total pumping rates in upper Kittitas County of about 3.5 cubic feet per second are small relative to other components of the water budget, the magnitude, timing, and location of withdrawals may have important effects on the hydrologic system. The heterogeneous and variably fractured bedrock in the study area precluded a detailed evaluation of localized effects of pumping, but several generalizations about the groundwater and surface-water systems can be made. These generalizations include evidence for the continuity between the groundwater and surface-water system apparent from synoptic streamflow measurements, stream-temperature profiles, and stable-isotope data of groundwater and surface waters.

Washington

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

A three-dimensional numerical model of groundwater flow was constructed for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS), Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and to evaluate groundwater availability. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-resource managers and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate proposed alternative management strategies and assess the long‑term availability of groundwater. The numerical simulation of groundwater flow in the CPRAS was completed with support from the Groundwater Resources Program of the U.S. Geological Survey Office of Groundwater. The model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-NWT. The model uses 3-kilometer (9,842.5 feet) grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 126 rows and 131 columns. Vertically, the model domain was subdivided into six geologic model units. From youngest to oldest, the units are the Overburden, the Saddle Mountains Basalt, the Mabton Interbed, the Wanapum Basalt, the Vantage Interbed, and the Grande Ronde Basalt. Natural recharge was estimated using gridded historical estimates of annual precipitation for the period 1895–2007. Pre-development recharge was estimated to be the average natural recharge for this period. Irrigation recharge and irrigation pumping were estimated using a remote-sensing based soil-water balance model for the period 1985–2007. Pre-1985 irrigation recharge and pumping were estimated using previously published compilation maps and the history of large-scale irrigation projects. Pumping estimates for municipal, industrial, rural, residential, and all other uses were estimated using reported values and census data. Pumping was assumed to be negligible prior to 1920. Two models were constructed to simulate groundwater flow in the CPRAS: a steady-state predevelopment model representing conditions before large-scale pumping and irrigation altered the system, and a transient model representing the period 1900–2007. Automated parameter-estimation techniques (steady-state predevelopment model) and traditional trial-and-error (transient model) methods were used for calibration. To calibrate the steady-state and transient models, 10,525 and 46,460 water level measurements, respectively, and 50 base-flow estimates were used. The steady-state model simulated the shape, slope, and trends of a potentiometric surface that was generally consistent with mapped water levels. For the transient model, the mean and median difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is -10 and 4 ft, respectively, with a standard deviation of 164 ft over a 5,648 ft range of measured heads. The residuals for the simulation period show that 52 percent of the simulated heads exceeded measured heads with a median residual value of 43 ft, and 48 percent were less than measured heads with a median residual value of -76 ft. The CPRAS model was constructed to derive components of the groundwater budget and help understand the interactions of stresses, such as recharge, groundwater pumping, and commingling wells on the groundwater and surface-water system. Through these applications, the model can be used to identify trends in groundwater storage and use, and quantify groundwater availability. The annual groundwater budgets showed several patterns of change over the simulation period. Groundwater pumping was negligible until the 1950s and began to increase significantly during the 1970s and 1980s. Recharge was highly variable due to the interannual variability of precipitation, but began to increase in the late 1940s due to the increase in surface-water irrigation projects. Groundwater contributions to streamflow (base flow) followed recharge closely. However, in areas of significant groundwater-level decline, base flow is reduced. Groundwater pumping had the greatest effect on water levels, followed by irrigation enhanced recharge. Commingling was a larger factor in structurally complex upland areas where hydraulic-head gradients are naturally high. Groundwater pumping has increased substantially over the past 40–50 years; this increase resulted in declining water levels at depth and decreased base flows over much of the study area. The effects of pumping are mitigated somewhat by the increase of surface-water irrigation, especially in the shallow Overburden unit, and commingling wells in some areas. During dry to average years, groundwater pumping causes a net loss of groundwater in storage and current condition (2000–2007) groundwater pumping exceeds recharge in all but the wettest of years.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington

Chemical and isotopic data collected from groundwater, surface-water, and atmospheric precipitation sites in Upper Kittitas County, Washington, 2010-12

As part of a multidisciplinary U.S. Geological Survey study of water resources in Upper Kittitas County, Washington, chemical and isotopic data were collected from groundwater, surface-water, and atmospheric precipitation sites from 2010 to 2012. These data are documented here so that interested parties can quickly and easily find those chemical and isotopic data related to this study. The locations of the samples are shown on an interactive map of the study area. This report is dynamic; additional data will be added to it as they become available.

Washington

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources and evaluation of water-management alternatives for the Chamokane Creek basin, Stevens County, Washington

A three-dimensional, transient numerical model of groundwater and surface-water flow was constructed for Chamokane Creek basin to better understand the groundwater-flow system and its relation to surface-water resources. The model described in this report can be used as a tool by water-management agencies and other stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate the effects of potential increases in groundwater pumping on groundwater and surface-water resources in the basin. The Chamokane Creek model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated model, GSFLOW. GSFLOW was developed to simulate coupled groundwater and surface-water resources. The model uses 1,000-foot grid cells that subdivide the model domain by 102 rows and 106 columns. Six hydrogeologic units in the model are represented using eight model layers. Daily precipitation and temperature were spatially distributed and subsequent groundwater recharge was computed within GSFLOW. Streamflows in Chamokane Creek and its major tributaries are simulated in the model by routing streamflow within a stream network that is coupled to the groundwater-flow system. Groundwater pumpage and surface-water diversions and returns specified in the model were derived from monthly and annual pumpage values previously estimated from another component of this study and new data reported by study partners. The model simulation period is water years 1980-2010 (October 1, 1979, to September 30, 2010), but the model was calibrated to the transient conditions for water years 1999-2010 (October 1, 1998, to September 30, 2010). Calibration was completed by using traditional trial-and-error methods and automated parameter-estimation techniques. The model adequately reproduces the measured time-series groundwater levels and daily streamflows. At well observation points, the mean difference between simulated and measured hydraulic heads is 7 feet with a root-mean-square error divided by the total difference in water levels of 4.7 percent. Simulated streamflow was compared to measured streamflow at the USGS streamflow-gaging station-Chamokane Creek below Falls, near Long Lake (12433200). Annual differences between measured and simulated streamflow for the site ranged from -63 to 22 percent. Calibrated model output includes a 31-year estimate of monthly water budget components for the hydrologic system. Five model applications (scenarios) were completed to obtain a better understanding of the relation between groundwater pumping and surface-water resources. The calibrated transient model was used to evaluate: (1) the connection between the upper- and middle-basin groundwater systems, (2) the effect of surface-water and groundwater uses in the middle basin, (3) the cumulative impacts of claims registry use and permit-exempt wells on Chamokane Creek streamflow, (4) the frequency of regulation due to impacted streamflow, and (5) the levels of domestic and stockwater use that can be regulated. The simulation results indicated that streamflow is affected by existing groundwater pumping in the upper and middle basins. Simulated water-management scenarios show streamflow increased relative to historical conditions as groundwater and surface-water withdrawals decreased.

Washington

Seepage Investigation for Selected River Reaches in the Chehalis River Basin, Washington

A study was completed in September 2007 in the Chehalis River basin to determine gain or loss of streamflow by measuring discharge at selected intervals within various reaches along the Chehalis River and its tributaries. Discharge was measured at 68 new and existing streamflow sites, where gains and losses were determined for 36 stream reaches. Streamflow gains were measured for 22 reaches and losses were measured for 13 reaches. No gain or loss was measured at the Chehalis River between the Newaukum and Skookumchuck Rivers. The Chehalis River exhibited a pattern of alternating gains and losses as it entered the area of wide, gentle relief known as the Grand Mound Prairie. The general pattern of tributary ground- and surface-water interaction was discharge to streams (gaining reaches) in the upper reaches and discharge to the ground-water system (losing reaches) as the tributaries entered the broad, flat Chehalis River valley.

Scientific Investigations Report

OPR-PPR, a computer program for assessing data importance to model predictions using linear statistics

The OPR-PPR program calculates the Observation-Prediction (OPR) and Parameter-Prediction (PPR) statistics that can be used to evaluate the relative importance of various kinds of data to simulated predictions. The data considered fall into three categories: (1) existing observations, (2) potential observations, and (3) potential information about parameters. The first two are addressed by the OPR statistic; the third is addressed by the PPR statistic. The statistics are based on linear theory and measure the leverage of the data, which depends on the location, the type, and possibly the time of the data being considered. For example, in a ground-water system the type of data might be a head measurement at a particular location and time. As a measure of leverage, the statistics do not take into account the value of the measurement. As linear measures, the OPR and PPR statistics require minimal computational effort once sensitivities have been calculated. Sensitivities need to be calculated for only one set of parameter values; commonly these are the values estimated through model calibration. OPR-PPR can calculate the OPR and PPR statistics for any mathematical model that produces the necessary OPR-PPR input files. In this report, OPR-PPR capabilities are presented in the context of using the ground-water model MODFLOW-2000 and the universal inverse program UCODE_2005. The method used to calculate the OPR and PPR statistics is based on the linear equation for prediction standard deviation. Using sensitivities and other information, OPR-PPR calculates (a) the percent increase in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more existing observations are omitted from the calibration data set; (b) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when one or more potential observations are added to the calibration data set; or (c) the percent decrease in the prediction standard deviation that results when potential information on one or more parameters is added.

Techniques and Methods

Analysis of sensitivity of simulated recharge to selected parameters for seven watersheds modeled using the precipitation-runoff modeling system

Recharge is a vital component of the ground-water budget and methods for estimating it range from extremely complex to relatively simple. The most commonly used techniques, however, are limited by the scale of application. One method that can be used to estimate ground-water recharge includes process-based models that compute distributed water budgets on a watershed scale. These models should be evaluated to determine which model parameters are the dominant controls in determining ground-water recharge. Seven existing watershed models from different humid regions of the United States were chosen to analyze the sensitivity of simulated recharge to model parameters. Parameter sensitivities were determined using a nonlinear regression computer program to generate a suite of diagnostic statistics. The statistics identify model parameters that have the greatest effect on simulated ground-water recharge and that compare and contrast the hydrologic system responses to those parameters. Simulated recharge in the Lost River and Big Creek watersheds in Washington State was sensitive to small changes in air temperature. The Hamden watershed model in west-central Minnesota was developed to investigate the relations that wetlands and other landscape features have with runoff processes. Excess soil moisture in the Hamden watershed simulation was preferentially routed to wetlands, instead of to the ground-water system, resulting in little sensitivity of any parameters to recharge. Simulated recharge in the North Fork Pheasant Branch watershed, Wisconsin, demonstrated the greatest sensitivity to parameters related to evapotranspiration. Three watersheds were simulated as part of the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). Parameter sensitivities for the MOPEX watersheds, Amite River, Louisiana and Mississippi, English River, Iowa, and South Branch Potomac River, West Virginia, were similar and most sensitive to small changes in air temperature and a user-defined flow routing parameter. Although the primary objective of this study was to identify, by geographic region, the importance of the parameter value to the simulation of ground-water recharge, the secondary objectives proved valuable for future modeling efforts. The value of a rigorous sensitivity analysis can (1) make the calibration process more efficient, (2) guide additional data collection, (3) identify model limitations, and (4) explain simulated results.

Scientific Investigations Report

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the unconsolidated deposits of the Colville River Watershed, Stevens County, Washington

Increased use of ground- and surface-water supplies in watersheds of Washington State in recent years has created concern that insufficient instream flows remain for fish and other uses. Issuance of new ground-water rights in the Colville River Watershed was halted by the Washington Department of Ecology due to possible hydraulic continuity of the ground and surface waters. A ground-water-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the ground-water system and the regional effects of ground-water development alternatives on the water resources of the Colville River Watershed. The Colville River Watershed is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and non-glacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Five principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the ground-water-flow model. A steady-state ground-water-flow model of the Colville River Watershed was developed to simulate September 2001 conditions. The simulation period represented a period of below-average precipitation. The model was calibrated using nonlinear regression to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head and stream discharge. Simulated inflow to the model area was 53,000 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) from precipitation and secondary recharge, and 36,000 acre-ft/yr from stream and lake leakage. Simulated outflow from the model was primarily through discharge to streams and lakes (71,000 acre-ft/yr), ground-water outflow (9,000 acre-ft/yr), and ground-water withdrawals (9,000 acre-ft/yr). Because the period of simulation, September 2001, was extremely dry, all components of the ground-water budget are presumably less than average flow conditions. The calibrated model was used to simulate the possible effects of increased ground-water pumping. Although the steady-state model cannot be used to predict how long it would take for effects to occur, it does simulate the ultimate response to such changes relative to September 2001 (relatively dry) conditions. Steady-state simulations indicated that increased pumping would result in decreased discharge to streams and lakes and decreased ground-water outflow. The location of the simulated increased ground-water pumping determined the primary source of the water withdrawn. Simulated pumping wells in the northern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from ground-water outflow. Simulated pumping wells in the southern end of the main Colville River valley diverted a large percentage of the pumpage from flow to rivers and streams. The calibrated steady-state model also was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no ground-water pumping, secondary recharge, or irrigation application occurred. Cumulative streamflow in the Colville River Watershed increased by 1.1 cubic feet per second, or about 36 percent of net ground-water pumping in 2001. The model is intended to simulate the regional ground-water-flow system of the Colville River Watershed and can be used as a tool for water-resource managers to assess the ultimate regional effects of changes in stresses. The regional scale of the model, coupled with relatively sparse data, must be considered when applying the model in areas of poorly understood hydrology, or examining hydrologic conditions at a larger scale than what is appropriate.

Scientific Investigations Report

Precipitation-Runoff Simulations of Current and Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington

Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of annual mean streamflow as a percentage of measured annual mean streamflow for the 10-year calibration period at six of the seven streamflow-gaging stations ranged from -35.2 to +26.2 percent, with 65 percent of the simulated values within 15 percent. One station was intentionally calibrated to over-simulate discharge (simulated discharge greater than measured discharge) in order to compensate for observed channel losses not simulated by the model. Simulation of water years 1960-2001 demonstrated great variability in monthly streamflow statistics. The simulated mean monthly flows for 11 streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 2.5 percent higher for water years 1992-2001 than for the entire simulation period. If water year 2001, an extreme drought year, is omitted, simulated mean monthly flows for the 11 streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 9.0 percent higher than for the entire simulation period. The calibrated model also examined the effects of irrigation-canal seepage on streamflow. Irrigation-canal seepage contributed to streamflow throughout the year, with the greatest effect during the irrigation season. Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system. The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 Underground Test Areas. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work. The methods presented in this report are used in three ways. (1) The ratings for individual observations are obtained by manipulating the measures of prediction uncertainty, and do not involve recalibrating the model. In this analysis, observation locations are each omitted individually and the resulting increase in uncertainty in the predictions is calculated. The uncertainty is quantified as standard deviations on the simulated advective transport. The increase in uncertainty is quantified as the percent increase in the standard deviations caused by omitting the one observation location from the calculation of standard deviations. In general, observation locations associated with larger increases are rated as more important. (2) Ratings for largely geographically based groups are obtained using a straightforward extension of the method used for individual observation locations. This analysis is needed where observations are clustered to determine whether the area is important to the predictions of interest. (3) Finally, the method is used to evaluate omitting a set of 100 observation locations. The locations were selected because they had low individual ratings and were not one of the few locations at which hydraulic heads from deep in the system were measured. The major results of the three analyses, when applied to the three-layer DVRFS ground-water flow system, are described in the following paragraphs. The discussion is labeled using the numbers 1 to 3 to clearly relate it to the three ways the method is used, as listed above. (1) The individual observation location analysis indicates that three observation locations are most important. They are located in Emigrant Valley, Oasis Valley, and Beatty. Of importance is that these and other observations shown to be important by this analysis are far from the travel paths considered. This displays the importance of the regional setting within which the transport occurs, the importance of including some sites throughout the area in the monitoring network, and the importance of including sites in these areas in particular. The method considered in this report indicates that the 19 observation locations that reflect hydraulic heads deeper in the system (in model layers 1, 2, and 3) are not very important. This appears to be because the locations of these observations are in the vicinity of shallow observation locations that also generally are rated as low importance, and because the model layers are hydraulically well connected vertically. The value of deep observations to testing conceptual models, however, is stressed. As a result, the deep observations are rated higher than is consistent with the results of the analysis presented, and none of these observations are omitted in the scenario discussed under (3) below. (2) The geographic grouping of th

California, Nevada