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D. L. Kresch

Publications and source records attributed to D. L. Kresch.

16 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2005

Verification of 1921 peak discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington, using 2003 peak-discharge data

The 1921 peak discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 12194000), was verified using peak-discharge data from the flood of October 21, 2003, the largest flood since 1921. This peak discharge is critical to determining other high discharges at the gaging station and to reliably estimating the 100-year flood, the primary design flood being used in a current flood study of the Skagit River basin. The four largest annual peak discharges of record (1897, 1909, 1917, and 1921) were used to determine the 100-year flood discharge at Skagit River near Concrete. The peak discharge on December 13, 1921, was determined by James E. Stewart of the U.S. Geological Survey using a slope-area measurement and a contracted-opening measurement. An extended stage-discharge rating curve based on the 1921 peak discharge was used to determine the peak discharges of the three other large floods. Any inaccuracy in the 1921 peak discharge also would affect the accuracies of the three other largest peak discharges. The peak discharge of the 1921 flood was recalculated using the cross sections and high-water marks surveyed after the 1921 flood in conjunction with a new estimate of the channel roughness coefficient (n value) based on an n-verification analysis of the peak discharge of the October 21, 2003, flood. The n value used by Stewart for his slope-area measurement of the 1921 flood was 0.033, and the corresponding calculated peak discharge was 240,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Determination of a single definitive water-surface profile for use in the n-verification analysis was precluded because of considerable variation in elevations of surveyed high-water marks from the flood on October 21, 2003. Therefore, n values were determined for two separate water-surface profiles thought to bracket a plausible range of water-surface slopes defined by high-water marks. The n value determined using the flattest plausible slope was 0.024 and the corresponding recalculated discharge of the 1921 slope-area measurement was 266,000 ft3/s. The n value determined using the steepest plausible slope was 0.032 and the corresponding recalculated discharge of the 1921 slope-area measurement was 215,000 ft3/s. The two recalculated discharges were 10.8 percent greater than (flattest slope) and 10.4 percent less than (steepest slope) the 1921 peak discharge of 240,000 ft3/s. The 1921 peak discharge was not revised because the average of the two recalculated discharges (240,500 ft3/s) is only 0.2 percent greater than the 1921 peak discharge.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1998

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington

Annual maximum instantaneous discharge data for 527 gaging stations with at least 10 years of peak-discharge record on unregulated streams were used to compute the magnitude and frequency of floods on Washington streams. Flood magnitudes having exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 were related to physical and climatic characteristics for 504 of the 527 gaging stations using generalized least-squares regression analyses. The regression relations can be used to estimate flood discharges having these exceedance probabilities for ungaged stream basins.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1995

Data and statistical summaries of background concentrations of metals in soils and streambed sediments in part of Big Soos Creek drainage basin, King County, Washington

Twenty-nine soil samples from 14 holes at 9 sites in part of the Big Soos Creek drainage basin in southwest King County, Washington, were collected and analyzed to obtain data on the magnitude and variability of background concentrations of metals in soils. Seven streambed-sediment samples and three streamwater samples from three sites also were collected and analyzed. These data are needed by regulating government agencies to determine if soils at sites of suspected contamination have elevated concentrations of metals, and to evaluate the effectiveness of remediation at sites with known contamination. Concentrations of 43 metals were determined by a total method, and concentrations of 17 metals were determined by a total-recoverable method and two different leaching methods. Metals analyzed for by all methods included most of those on the U.S. Environmental Protection agency list of priority pollutants, plus alluminum, iron, and manganese. Ranges of concentrations of metals determined by the total method are within ranges found by others for the conterminous United States. Concentrations of mercury, manganese, phosphorus, lead, selenium, antimony, and zinc as determined by the total method, and of some of these plus other metals as determined by the other methods were larger in shallow soil (less than 12 inches deep) than in deep soil (greater than 12 inches). Concentrations of metals in streambed sediments were more typical of shallow than deep soils.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1994

Variability of streamflow and precipitation in Washington

Patterns of variation in monthly records of 55 streamflow stations and 38 precipitation stations were evaluated using chronologies of cumulative departure of monthly values from mean-monthly values. The cumulative departures for each station were rescaled (standardized) by dividng them by the standard deviation of the annual values for that station. The degree of similarity between the chronologies for each pair of either streamflow or precipitation stations was measured by the coefficient of correlation between them. Matrices of these coefficients of correlation were evaluated using cluster analysis to identify regions of similarity among the chronologies. The cluster analysis of the streamflow-station matrix defined geographic regions of similarity in south- western, northwestern, and northeastern Washington. The cluster analysis of the precipitation-station matrix defined two regions of similarity--western and eastern Washington-- and indicated that there is a tendency for persistent periods of above-average precipitation in western Washington to correspond with persistent periods of below-average precipitation in eastern Washington, and conversely. A water- resource availability index was developed that provides a quantitative interpretation of present conditions in the context of historical records of streamflow and precipitation. The index value for a given month and year is calculated as the summation of time-weighted, rescaled, monthly departures during the preceding 3-year period. Methods were described for the use of chronologies of cumulative departure (1) in estimating monthly streamflow or precipitation values for ungaged sites from monthly values for gaged sites, and (2) in examining the adequacy of the sizes of existing or proposed reservoirs.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1989

Streamflow statistics for streams on the Puyallup Indian Reservation, Washington

Streamflow statistics consisting of low flows, high flows, mean monthly flows, mean annual flows, flow durations, and peak flows were estimated for 16 sites on small streams on the Puyallup Indian Reservation, Washington. Drainage areas ranged from 0.62 to 16.7 sq mi. Streamflow statistics were also computed for the Puyallup River at Puyallup (gaging station 12101500). All of the small-stream statistics except for the peak flows were estimated by using station regression equations to transfer streamflow statistics for long-term gaging stations to the small-stream sites. An equation for each small-stream site was developed by regressing approximately 12 monthly measurements of discharge at that site with respect to concurrent daily mean discharges at a long-term gaging station. The coefficients of correlation between the discharges range from 0.98 to 0.79 except for one value of 0.58. Peak flows for the small-stream sites were estimated by use of regional regression equations. The regional regression equations, which express the statistics as functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation, were developed using data for 26 gaging stations in the Puget Sound area. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1987

Flood hazard assessment of the Hoh River at Olympic National Park ranger station, Washington

Federal regulations require buildings and public facilities on Federal land to be located beyond or protected from inundation by a 100-year flood. Flood elevations, velocities and boundaries were determined for the occurrence of a 100-year flood through a reach, approximately 1-mi-long, of the Hoh River at the ranger station complex in Olympic National Park. Flood elevations, estimated by step-backwater analysis of the 100-year flood discharge through 14 channel and flood-plain cross sections of the Hoh River, indicate that the extent of flooding in the vicinity of buildings or public facilities at the ranger station complex is likely to be limited mostly to two historic meander channels that lie partly within loop A of the public campground and that average flood depths of about 2 feet or less would be anticipated in these channels. Mean flow velocities at the cross sections, corresponding to the passage of a 100-year flood, ranged from about 5 to over 11 ft/sec. Flooding in the vicinity of either the visitors center or the residential and maintenance areas is unlikely unless the small earthen dam at the upstream end of Taft Creek were to fail. Debris flows with volumes on the order of 100 to 1,000 cu yards could be expected to occur in the small creeks that drain the steep valley wall north of the ranger station complex. Historic debris flows in these creeks have generally traveled no more than about 100 yards out onto the valley floor. The potential risk that future debris flows in these creeks might reach developed areas within the ranger station complex is considered to be small because most of the developed areas within the complex are situated more than 100 yards from the base of the valley wall. Landslides or rock avalanches originating from the north valley wall with volumes potentially much larger than those for debris flows could have a significant impact on the ranger station complex. The probability that such landslides or avalanches may occur is unknown. Inspection of aerial photographs of the Hoh River valley revealed the apparent presence, along the ridge crest of the north valley wall, of ridge-top depressions--geologic features that are sometimes associated with the onset of deep-seated slope failures. However, evaluation of the potential landslide hazard associated with these depressions would require an onsite examination of the area by trained personnel. Such an effort was outside the scope of this study.

Washington↗
USGS1985

Spirit Lake dam-failure flood routing assessment

Potential clear-water floodflows resulting from uncontrolled breaching by Spirit Lake of a debris dam deposited by the May 18 , 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, were evaluated. U.S. Geological Survey dam-break model K-634 was utilized, first to compute clear-water flood hydrographs for various hypothetical breach scenarios, and then to hydraulically route them downstream to the mouth of the Toutle River. Dam-break computations were obtained for 12 breach-development scenarios. Eight of the scenarios modeled breaches caused by overtopping of the June 1982 crest of the debris dam, while the other four modeled breaches resulting from overtopping of the debris dam at a possible future crest altitude of 3,490 feet. Equal numbers of scenarios, six each, were modeled for breach development durations of 0.25 hour and 1.0 hour. Peak discharges and times of arrival at selected locations for scenarios with breach development durations of 1.0 hour are presented in tables. Peak discharges computed for dam-break scenarios with breach crest widths of 400 feet are almost twice the magnitude of those computed for scenarios identical in all other respects, but with widths of 200 feet. Peak discharges computed for breaches caused by overtopping of the debris dam at an altitude of 3,531.8 feet were generally found to be roughly five times greater than those caused by overtopping at an altitude of 3,490 feet, if the breaches had identical crest elevations and crest widths. Decreases in peak discharge from Spirit Lake to the mouth of the Toutle River ranged from 16 to 26 percent for the scenarios modeled. This lack of significant attenuation is primarily due to the large volume and surface area of Spirit lake (in excess of 360,000 acre-feet and 3,000 acres, respectively, for all scenarios modeled), which result in the continued discharge of high flows long after breach development is complete. The degree of attenuation is also minimized by the generally steep narrow valleys through which the North Fork Toutle and Toutle Rivers flow. Elapsed time from beginning of breach development to arrival of peak discharges at the mouth of the Toutle River ranged from 4.3 to 7.4 hours for the scenarios modeled. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗
USGS1984

Preliminary estimate of possible flood elevations in the Columbia River at Trojan Nuclear Power Plant due to failure of debris dam blocking Spirit Lake, Washington

Failure of the debris dam, blocking the outflow of Spirit Lake near Mount St. Helens, could result in a mudflow down the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers into the Columbia River. Flood elevations at the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant on the Columbia River, 5 mi upstream from the Cowlitz River, were simulated with a hydraulic routing model. The simulations are made for four Columbia River discharges in each of two scenarios, one in which Columbia River floods coincide with a mudflow and the other in which Columbia River floods follow a mudflow sediment deposit upstream from the Cowlitz River. In the first scenario, Manning 's roughness coefficients for clear water and for mudflow in the Columbia River are used; in the second scenario only clear water coefficients are used. The grade elevation at the power plant is 45 ft above sea level. The simulated elevations exceed 44 ft if the mudflow coincides with a Columbia River discharge that has a recurrence interval greater than 10 years (610,000 cu ft/sec); the mudflow is assumed to extend downstream from the Cowlitz River to the mouth of the Columbia River, and Manning 's roughness coefficients for a mudflow are used. The simulated elevation is 32 ft if the mudflow coincides with a 100-yr flood (820,000 cu ft/sec) and clear-water Manning 's coefficients are used throughout the entire reach of the Columbia River. The elevations exceed 45 ft if a flow exceeding the 2-yr peak discharge in the Columbia River (410,000 cu ft/sec) follows the deposit of 0.5 billion cu yd of mudflow sediment upstream of the Cowlitz River before there has been any appreciable scour or dredging of the deposit. In this simulation it is assumed that: (1) the top of the sediment deposited in the Columbia River is at an elevation of 30 ft at the mouth of the Cowlitz River, (2) the surface elevation of the sediment deposit decreases in an upstream direction at a rate of 2.5 ft/mi, and (3) clear water Manning 's coefficients apply to the entire modeled reach of the Columbia River. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1983

Mudflow hazards along the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers from a hypothetical failure of Spirit Lake blockage

The debris avalanche accompanying the May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount St. Helens, in southwestern Washington, buried the former outlet of Spirit Lake, located 5 miles north of the volcano, to a depth ranging to 500 feet. Since that time, Spirit Lake has had no natural outlet and its lake level and contents have increased significantly. Erosion at the crest of the debris dam on the surface of the blockage and recent studies of theblockage stratigraphy and soil properties showing that the effective crest elevation is lower than the surface crest have led to concern that the lake may someday breach through or spill over the top of the blockage. A study was made by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the extent of inundation that might result downstream in the Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers if a hypothetical breach should occur and generate a mudflow flood of catastrophic proportions. A hypothetical breach of Spirit Lake produced a hypothetical mudflow hydrograph with a peak discharge of 2.65 million cu ft/s and a sediment concentration of 65 percent by volume at Camp Baker on the North Fork Toutle River. Elevations determined by the hydraulic routing of the mudflow were used to prepare inundation maps, indicating depths of inundation to be about 60 feet at Castle Rock and Lexington; 30-40 feet at Toutle, Toutle Lake at Silver Lake, Kelson, and Longview; and 15-20 feet at Toledo. Travel times for the peak elevation were estimated to be about 15 hours to Kid Valley on the North Fork Toutle River, 21 hours to Castle Rock, 22 hours to Toledo, and 23 hours to Kelso and Longview on the Cowlitz River. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1981

Channel conditions in the lower Toutle and Cowlitz Rivers resulting from the mudflows of May 18, 1980

During several periods of volcanic-ash eruption at Mount St. Helens, Wash., (March 30, May 25-26, May 30-June 2, and June 12-13, 1980) strong winds from the north occurred at high altitudes. As a result, the volcanic ash fell some 50 miles to the south in the Bull Run watershed, the principal water-supply source for the metropolitan area of Portland, Oreg. Water samples collected from three stream sites within the watershed were compared with samples collected during the same season in previous years. No detectable changes were noted in chemical characteristics. Precipitation samples collected immediately after the June 12-13 ash fall ranged in specific conductance from 20 to 41 micromhos per centimeter at 25C and in pH from 4.0 to 4.3 pH units. Stream samples collected during the May-June period ranged in specific conductance from 18 to 28 micromhos per centimeter at 25C and in pH from 6.7 to 7.5 pH units. Volcanic-ash samples were collected and analyzed for particle size, chemical composition, and weight. Significant differences in particle size of ash were found in samples from two separate eruptions. (USGS)

Circular↗